The early signs that McCain’s campaign has self destructed over immigration:
From Mason Dixon Polling and Research:
432 Likely Republican primary voters were interviewed by telephone June 13-15, 2007 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. The margin for error is plus or minus 4.8%.
QUESTION: If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote? (ORDER ROTATED)
Fred Thompson 25%
Rudy Giuliani 21%
Mitt Romney 11%
John McCain 7%
Mike Huckabee 5%
Sam Brownback 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Tommy Thompson 1%
Jim Gilmore -
Tom Tancredo -
Ron Paul -
Undecided 28%
June 17th, 2007 at 10:50 am
Wow, I’m surprised that Rudy continues to poll so well in SC.
June 17th, 2007 at 11:01 am
[...] Race 4 2008 [...]
June 17th, 2007 at 11:01 am
I just got the numbers. I haven’t checked to see if there are any trends yet. I will update them if there are.
June 17th, 2007 at 11:05 am
Low sample size and a relatively high margin of error. The poll seems questionable to say the least.
June 17th, 2007 at 11:16 am
McCain is finished
June 17th, 2007 at 11:32 am
Mason-Dixon is generally considered pretty reliable. Awful news for McCain. NH is now MUST win for him, but even that seems unlikely. Even if he somehow manages to go up in NH, Romney’s well known enough there, and well enough liked, that an Iowa win, and poor finish for McCain there, would be more then enough to put Mitt over the top. If he’s polling this poorly in SC, and he doesn’t NH, I just don’t see how his campaign sees February 5th.
June 17th, 2007 at 11:46 am
There are no recent Mason-Dixon South Carolina polls to go by, that I could find. Judging by recent polls from the SC, McCain’s support is going to Thompson, or back into the undecided, which is what I thought would happen in the south at least, where before his meltdown, McCain was polling strongly in the area.
June 17th, 2007 at 11:52 am
I am continually astounded that anyone — anyone at all — is choosing to support Tommy Thompson, Duncan Hunter, Sam Brownback … who ARE these people? There were at least four of them that replied Tommy Thompson!
June 17th, 2007 at 11:56 am
TLG, a poll is the perfect time for respondants to support a minor candidate and give their cause some attention. A better time than in the voting booth, where you question really applies.
June 17th, 2007 at 12:01 pm
I’ve noticed Mason-Dixon state polls show Huckabee at 5% in NH and SC.
I wonder what’s going on with that.
June 17th, 2007 at 12:14 pm
I think this poll contains hidden good news for Romney. Even though he is polling 14% behind Thompson, the numbe rof undecideds is double that. I think thompson may have gotten all he is going to get is S.C., minus some small additional support from the announcment boost, and people defecting from McCain to the next most recognizable Conservative name.
The people who are undecided are the people who are not automatically attracted to Thompson because of his “local son” appeal. They are the people more willing to accept a Northern Mormon. Romney wins in a side-by-side comparrison of the himself and Thompson, and the undecideds are the people who are going to do that comparrison. Romney may or may not be able to take away support from Thomspon – but he can deffinately take a big chunk of undecideds – though I don’t expect to see it before Ames. Now that Giuliani and McCain are out, Romney has to win Ames. He is probably going to focus on Iowa until the Ames poll – THEN move full-out on S.C.
June 17th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
Huckabee was likely to gain some traction with his debate performances, though not enough to push him into contention. He is the lone 2nd tier candidate, at this point.
June 17th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
Matt-A, Romney is not going to campaign hard in SC and FL. He’s going to campaign hard in IA, NV, and NH. And also for the fractional delegate awards in WY.
June 17th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
Matt-A:
The undecideds are most likely former McCain supporters, or Gingrich supporters, who was left out. It’s not that great of news for Romney, right now, because the South Carolina voter is very familiar with him. This is a personal opinion, but I think that the undecideds are probably torn between Thompson and Giuliani. They disagree with Giuliani socially, but still remember his 9/11 hero status, while Thompson still is relatively unknown as a politician. You seem to forget that Thompson has yet to run any ads, or set foot into South Carolina. Romney has already made considerable efforts to court voters in SC, and it has stalled, so far.
June 17th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
Here in Charleston, this has been a problem that nobody wanted to address,
until it suddenly became OK to do so. It’s a weely occurrence to see an
INS van pull up to a construction site, and watch illegals leaping off
the roof and scrambling in the woods. It would be hilarious if it weren’t
so serious. But there’s also a paradox here. Truly one of those “jobs
Americans won’t do” situations–like laying blacktop in July, 97 degrees,
100% humidity. The point is, people have suddenly found a voice on the
issue, and it doesn’t surprise me that this meathead bill–and it’s
sponsor–are taking fire.
June 17th, 2007 at 12:47 pm
What caught my eye in this poll is the racial divide on the Democratic side, where there’s between a 19 and 22 percentage point differential for each of the candidates. If there’s anything positive to glean from this, at least blacks in South Carolina seem to see right through John Edwards’ “Two Americas” class warfare crap.
Among Whites:
Hillary Clinton 38%
John Edwards 26%
Barack Obama 22%
Among Blacks:
Barack Obama 41%
Hillary Clinton 18%
John Edwards 4%
June 17th, 2007 at 12:53 pm
Aron, good catch!
June 17th, 2007 at 12:56 pm
Look like Mitt hits another plateau in SC. He was in the 5% to 8% range for a long time in many of other polls for SC, then he moved up to 10% to 11%. I believe it has been that way now for 3 weeks. I think it likely that the best Mitt can do in SC is to finish in top 3.
Also, was not Rudy in high 20s in those state polls? I believe that this is his lowest ever for SC.
Yes, McCain is finished. If there is a solo state that he should do well, it would be SC. His grassroot organization of any state is strongest there, and yet, he has nothing to show. As for NH, I believe that in 2000, he won many of the independents because there really was no moderate candidate among Republican or Democrat. Now, we have Rudy. He will pull away many of McCain’s votes. I think many of those voters will bail out when they see where he is heading.
June 17th, 2007 at 1:04 pm
SC is Thompson’s to lose. I think we all assumed this would be the case as soon as we knew FDT would enter. He has to do well enough in the earlier states, especially Iowa, so that he isn’t overtaken by Romney’s momentum. I think a close 2nd in IA and a strong 3rd in NH probably would be enough, but who knows what will happen if Romney wins the 4 states who will vote before SC.
Rudy’s needs to hope that he can do well enough in the earlier states so that he can still get 2nd place in SC. I have a feeling that if Rudy underperforms in SC then he will underperform in FL, where the GOP is still largely dominated by the same type of voters as SC.
Romney’s plan is fairly obvious, stay close enough in SC and FL so that wins in Iowa and NH will gain enough momentum to push him ahead of Thompson and Giuliani. I 98% certain that Thompson will be ahead of Romney in SC and FL before IA. Romney could however pull even with or pass Rudy (especially in SC) depending on how things play out with Romney’s religion and Rudy’s still relatively unknown social liberalism and gun control past. Also, Romney needs to hope that Michigan moves to 1/29 with FL, on the off chance that Rudy is able to win FL after losing the first 5 states. Romney is almost sure to win MI which would negate the delegate momentum that Rudy would take to Super Tuesday.
June 17th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
I know everyone doubted me earlier when I questioned whether McCain would last until January, but now maybe I will get some believers. I would be shocked if McCain’s numbers are much better than this in Iowa, the next time polls come out, which would mean he will be way off the lead in the first three important states. Rumors from several sources are that McCain will get crushed in the 2nd quarter fundraising totals which I think will be the begining of the end. I am certain that there are quite a few McCain supporters who are waiting to see if he can right the ship. Once those numbers come out, I predict McCain will lose some serious support both in the polls and in staff/fundraisers.
I know McCain’s people like to remind everyone of how pundits pronounced Kerry dead in 2003, however the differences between the two men are pretty significant. Kerry was in line with the base on every issue, McCain is not. Kerry didn’t have 100% name ID going into the race and was never supposed to be the front-runner, leaving him room to grow and exceed expectations. McCain has disappointed everyone and has nothing new to offer that voters haven’t already heard.
I still think it’s a toss up as to whether McCain’s pride or stubborness wins out. I know he is really stubborn, but at the same time the reason he is so stubborn is because he is so proud. Right now I am torn, but if I had to guess it would be that McCain ends up withdrawing before the voting starts. ARG will only be able to prop his hopes up for so long.
June 17th, 2007 at 1:45 pm
SGS,
Rudy has actually gone up by 2.4% from the most recent South Carolina poll. It is Fred Thompson who has since skyrocketed by 18.6%.
Here are the results of the Winthrop/ETV SC GOP poll that was released May 31st, with the change between this 18-day old poll and the new Mason-Dixon poll in parentheses:
Giuliani 18.6% (+2.4%)
McCain 14.4% (-7.4%)
Romney 11.7% (-0.7%)
Thompson 6.4% (+18.6%)
Gingrich 3.4%
Brownback 1.5% (-0.5%)
Hunter 1.1% (-0.1%)
Huckabee 0.8% (+4.2%)
Whereas the Winthrop poll asked registered Republicans, the Mason-Dixon poll more accurately surveyed likely Republican primary voters.
June 17th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
Dskinner: I rarely disagree with you, but the FL GOP is not “largely dominated by the same types of voters as SC.” Not at all. Aron can elaborate.
June 17th, 2007 at 2:23 pm
I obviously don’t know personally what the entire GOP is like there. I do have friends there, but they are from the panhandle which I think everyone agrees is very similar to the rest of the South.
I have read and heard that other than the Cubans in southern FL that the primary process is controlled mainly by traditional southern conservatives.
I have also heard from several of the same types of people that there aren’t as many NY/NJ transplants as you might think and of the ones that are there, most are Democrats. Obviously there will be some boost for Rudy, but maybe not as much as people think.
June 17th, 2007 at 2:25 pm
While I don’t like comparing two different polls, Aron is right that Rudy has been about 20% in SC for quite a while. It is McCain who used to be so much higher.
June 17th, 2007 at 2:30 pm
Here is RealClearPolitics’ average of the last three Florida polls (Insider Advantage, Zogby, Quinnipiac), all of which were completed between June 4th and the 7th:
Giuliani 31.3%
Thompson 15.0%
Romney 12.3%
McCain 11.3%
Chuck Todd recently characterized the multifaceted Sunshine State fairly well when he wrote:
Florida is a microcosm
“Jan. 29: Florida is set for this date. There’s no large state in the union that better represents the makeup of the entire country than Florida. Think about it: the Southeast of the state mirrors the Northeast of the country; the Southwest of the state has a solid Midwestern feel; the Central part of the state is akin to the exurbs and Southwestern growth parts of the country; of course the Panhandle is the Deep South; and Key West is like San Francisco. A perfect microcosm.”
The variance within the state is best reflected by the disparity between support for Rudy and Fred in the southeast (Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/Palm Beach) and in the panhandle/north (Pensacola/Tallahassee/Jacksonville) vs. Hillary.
In the southeast, Hillary beats Rudy by 6%; she crushes Fred by 19%.
In the north/panhandle region, Rudy beats Hillary by 4%; and Fred beats Hillary by 3%.
Rudy is best-positioned to win the GOP primary in Florida because TV/radio advertising rates are cost-prohibitive in the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area, and it makes little sense to spend millions down here in an attempt to compete in an area where Giuliani’s support is comparable to New Jersey or Pennsylvania.
June 17th, 2007 at 2:48 pm
dSkinner,
Agreed on Mitt’s strategy. I’ve been saying for awhile that Romney needs to go hard after South Carolina, so that the momentum of winning Iowa and New Hampshire can push him into a close second behind Fred. In that situation, Mitt will be the candidate to have exceeded expectations (due to Fred’s high polling numbers in the South and the Mormon factor) , and Fred will get minimal momentum. Then he uses the strong second place in SC to rocket him into second behind Rudy in Florida (or even conceivably first if Rudy performs especially poorly in the early primaries). I’m confident that if Romney finishes first in Iowa and New Hampshire (who knows what’s going on with Nevada and Wyoming), second in South Carolina, and second in Florida, he’ll have more then enough momentum to win a plurality of 2/5 delegates.
June 17th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
Romney aint going to win Iowa…
June 17th, 2007 at 4:08 pm
Romney doesn’t need Florida, not with Michigan going to the same date. I do however, believe that he does need S.C. – the last Primary before Super Tuesday cannot go to Fred. If Fred Thompson lasts until the S.C. primary (which he may not, its still a long way off), I don’t think Romney has much choice but to make a deal to name him as VP.
But that is a very large “if” – I am not sure Fred Thompson will last until the S.C. primary. If he can’t pull up his support in other states (remember, states are what decide the nomination), I don’t see him staying in just to win South Carolina. He may be able to pull some more southern states on Super Tuesday, but his appeal is little in other places. That would leave Thompson’s hope to the convention in September – where he has little chance of winning.
As for Romney’s polling. I think his support is rather like a stair case: moving up a few points, stalling, moving up, stalling. I think he is in a “stall” stage. But I still think he can win South Carolina – if he starts campaigning.
June 17th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
It’s very unlikely any candidate is going to win all of Florida’s delegates.
The regional differences in the party suggest whomever finishes second will still win a lot of delegates (there might even be a few delegates for a third place finisher).
In fact it’s possible that the statewide “winner” will actually receives less delegates than the second place finisher.
June 17th, 2007 at 5:20 pm
econ grad stud: The only way that the statewide winner in Florida could fail to win the majority of the state’s delegates would be if the statewide winner won pluralities in seven or fewer of the state’s 25 congressional districts. (There are 114 delegates from Florida; 36 are awarded to the statewide winner, 3 each to the winner in each of the congressional districts, plus three unpledged party leaders.) So it’s mathematically possible (if someone like Giuliani racks up big wins in a few districts, giving him the statewide plurality), but I don’t think it will actually happen that way.
June 17th, 2007 at 6:27 pm
There also is a warning from the RNC where if Florida changing its date again, it could lose as many as 27 of delegects. So, Florida may find itself dropping in importance of winning.
June 17th, 2007 at 6:38 pm
I’m thinking about it now.
I can easily see Rudy taking Florida and Nevada and running second in South Carolina. However I believe that he will skip either Iowa or New Hampshire with the intention of finishing a strong second in the left out state that he decides to run in (New Hampshire right now). Following such a plan gives him a massive kick heading into super-duper Tuesday.
My belief is, while he has a significant chance of having the nomination wrapped up by April, if he were to finish a third in any early state it would be a big blow to maintaining momentum in important states like California, Michigan and Illinios.
Just my opinion.
June 17th, 2007 at 7:27 pm
Joshua, here’s something to think about.
There are _a lot_ fewer Republicans in some districts than in others.
This means one candidate could win most of the districts (with few Republicans there to vote). Meanwhile the winner of the most votes could actually only win districts that are very Republican.
It’s happened in other GOP primaries, I’d not be surprised to see it happen again.
June 17th, 2007 at 8:10 pm
Actually if I were running Rudy’s campaign, I’d skip New Hampshire and focus on a respectable second place in Iowa. Therefore focus resources on a win in Nevada and Florida to ensure a flow of momentum.
Every candidate wants to prove themselves in New Hampshire, with McCain, Thompson and Romney wanting to gain traction…. skipping NH Iowa would be Rudy’s best bet and it’ll save him millions. Plus he’s polling much better there.
June 17th, 2007 at 10:09 pm
Kris, If Rudy’s campaign were to skip IA or NH, it would be IA.
* The Iowa GOP is much more socially conservative than the NH GOP. (The NH GOP is 50% pro-choice.)
* Compounding this greatly, Iowa is a caucus rather than primary state, where activists hold A LOT of sway and casual voters tend not to participate.
* NH allows independents to vote in the primary, which is how McCain won it 8 years ago. Assuming he collapses this year, most independents voting in the GOP primary will vote for Rudy.
June 17th, 2007 at 10:28 pm
David B, I have to agree. Very succinctly put.
June 17th, 2007 at 11:00 pm
Fair comment David.
I’m probably reading into the polls too much. Though I still think a second place in at least one of the two early states, as well as winning Florida and Nevada, is a must for Rudy.
June 17th, 2007 at 11:02 pm
[...] unsettled this race is. From Mason-Dixon (pretty much the gold standard in state polling), here are some new South Carolina #s: Fred Thompson 25% Rudy Giuliani 21% Mitt Romney 11% John McCain 7% Mike Huckabee 5% Sam [...]
June 17th, 2007 at 11:34 pm
Kris, Indeed. In fact, the strategy I’ve been suggesting is Rudy’s is this:
Beat expectations in IA, NH, and SC. Hopefully winning one. Place within single digits of the winner, even when placing third. While spending millions less and weeks fewer on the ground. That way you win the expectations. He already reduced expectations for IA by not participating at the straw poll.
Win NV and FL.
June 17th, 2007 at 11:55 pm
Matt-A, please allow me to disagree with your assessment that Fred has little support outside the South. He has won straw polls in CA, PA, WA and IA! In Iowa, where a conservative website polled 91,000 Republicans, Fred won going away.
He also won handily in CA and PA. These ocurred a month or two ago when his entrance was still not assured. Romnay was not the second place choice in either CA or PA. I don’t know about the other states.
Also, neither Fred, Rudy nor Mitt would accept the VP slot…they are all alpha males…it’s the top spot or nothing.
Thompson could sweep the South and compete throughout the other states quite well. Fred’s strong position on the Second Amendment puts him in good stead in the Western states as well. He ought to be able to take OK, WY, CO, ID, NB, SD, ND, KS, MO, and MT. PA Republicans like their gun rights, too.
In other words, he’s the toughest of all the candidates to beat in the Republican primaries, not Rudy or Mitt.
June 18th, 2007 at 12:15 am
David B, has also pointed out in the past that if someone, presumably FDT, beats Romney in IA, then Rudy benefits and wins in NH.
While I don’t think either thing will happen, I do agree that there is no way Thompson is winning NH. If Romney underperforms in IA then Rudy will be the one to benefit in NH. That is why I think he is making a huge mistake by not trying to win in IA. Even though there are a bunch of Socons there, I think if Rudy put the time and money in he probably could convince enough Socons that he will be good enough on social issues and better on terror issues.
Iowa was Rudy’s best chance to win. The Florida strategy still has potential, but not nearly as much as winning Iowa would have had.
June 18th, 2007 at 12:20 am
Dskinner: More than that, I suggested that Rudy and Fred could make a deal, Rudy to drop IA, Fred to drop NH, so some of their voters could combine to defeat Romney in at least 1 of the 2 states.
Yes, taking out Romney in IA is a great strategy. Romney’s got all his eggs in that basket. Rudy doesn’t want all his eggs in one basket, which turning Iowa into a death-match would make it.
However, Fred seems to be aiming at Rudy in FL, and THAT could be a death match. (But if they do my deal, and beat Romney in 1 of the 2 states, then FL is probably NOT a death match for Rudy and Fred.)
June 18th, 2007 at 12:23 am
It continually baffles me —
All of this “Romney’s got it in the bag for Iowa and New Hampshire” stuff.
His support is artificially inflated. He’s been the only one saturating the media market. Once Rudy and FDT get their ads in — we can count out McCain now, it looks like — and do a little more in the states, we’ll see that Romney’s thirty percent can’t possibly hold.
And honestly, I see no way FDT can win the nomination. This is Rudy vs. Romney to the finish, I think; especially since, even if Romney *were* to win Iowa and New Hampshire, Rudy will have Florida and Nevada. Michigan won’t be taken as seriously if it’s moved up; the media and the other candidates will latch onto the fact that Mitt’s father was the governor. South Carolina is anyone’s guess at this point.
Super Tuesday right now looks to be in Rudy’s favor, but things change in half of a year!
June 18th, 2007 at 12:27 am
Mitt would absolutely accept the VP spot because he would view it a as a springboard to run in 4 or 8 years. Rudy however probably would not. Fred might because it gives him huge prestige without the same level or work that the top spot requires. I think Fred is a great choice except for the fact that he would leave us without a nominee later because he is too old.
What online poll are you talking about. I have never heard of any poll anywhere that has polled that many people. Also, how on earth did a conservative website in IA poll every single person who is going to the caucuses? Obviously you are somehow mistaken about that poll.
Mitt easily showed the best in the SC straw polls but that in no way means he is stronger there than Thompson. Straw polls other than Ames mean very little. We’ll see if Ames means much this year. It obviously won’t mean as much in years past, but it still could might narrow the field and make sure that Rudy and McCain can’t win there.
June 18th, 2007 at 12:38 am
TLG makes a good point, saturating 2 small states to get to 28% of the vote is a sign of weakness, not strength. I doubt Romney will withstand Rudy and Fred when the campaign and ad wars heat up.
I disagree with TLG that this is a Romney vs Rudy race. I think it is 3-way race and Fred has a very good chance at the nod.
June 18th, 2007 at 12:40 am
TLG,
I totally disagree about Michigan not mattering if it moves up. Florida matters so much partly because it is such an important state electorally in a general. If Romney shows well in Michigan it is very important because part of Romney’s appeal is that he puts Michigan in play in a general election.
I do agree that the talk of Romney having Iowa and NH locked up is very premature. Many, many things can change between now and January. I do however think that when it comes right down to it most people believe that Romney’s chances of winning both those states are very, very high and it would take a Romney collapse to lose them.
While a collapse from Romney is possible, I don’t think it is likely judging by how he has approached the campaign so far. I think what I am trying to say is that those two states are Romney’s to lose, nobody will be able to walk in there and take it without Mitt making a large error.
Also, don’t take NV for granted. Romney has the endorsement of the most connected and most popular GOP politician in the state in former Governor Guinn. Because it is a caucus state, many moderates who otherwise would have voted for Rudy won’t turnout, whereas the more conservative voters normally do turnout. Also there are quite a few Mormons in the state who will probably turnout for the caucuses in higher than usual numbers.
June 18th, 2007 at 12:49 am
David B,
I am guessing then that you think withdrawing from the straw poll must have been a sign of strength by Rudy? The fact that Rudy has higher name ID than Romney is surely an advantage, but Romney is doing what every successful candidate has always done, focus on winning Iowa, NH and SC. Rudy is the one attempting a new strategy. Surely that change in strategy to one that has never been successful is more a sign of Rudy’s weakness with Socons than Romney’s traditional campaign is a sign of his weakness nationally. Instead it is a sign that Rudy is much more well known nationally. (The fact that Rudy has a chance of pulling it off is also a sign of this strength)
I think that Romney’s many visits to both IA and NH has at least as much to do with his numbers as running ads. The voters in both of those states don’t vote based on ads, and they never have. They vote based on townhall meetings and other similar events. Rudy has hardly been both states compared to Romney and I think that has more to do with his surge than his ads. Think about it, everytime Romney goes somewhere in one of those states it makes the local nightly news and it makes the local paper the next day. That free coverage from being in the state is much more valuable than the ads Romney has taken out.
June 18th, 2007 at 12:50 am
Dskinner: Most people don’t believe Romney’s chances of winning both IA+NH is “very, very high.” That is wishful thinking. The smart money at Intrade puts Romney at 35% to win IA and 40% to win NH, although few contracts have been traded so it’s hard to say those are truly market prices.
Romney’s probability of winning the nomination is 20.4% at Intrade, and that is a mature market. It’s double his national polling, which indicates strength. But the big picture is 20.4%.
June 18th, 2007 at 12:51 am
You are right about NV: The caucus+Mormon factor will mean Rudy faces tough opposition from Romney. I plan to be in NV to help Rudy with the caucuses. If Romney wins due to a large Mormon factor, how will news of that phenomenon affect him in NH? Not well.
June 18th, 2007 at 12:52 am
Libertairan guy. The FL primary is for Republicans. When it comes to Republicans in FL, they are mostly conservative. Rudy will have an uphill battle in FL, the only Southern state where he has any chance whatsoever. Don’t confuse Democrat strongholds when thinking about the Republican primary.
Fred will also dominate where the Second Amendment is a major issue, namely Western states, OK and PA, to name quite a few.
Fred also won a straw poll CA, where favorite sone Duncan Hunter came in second.
As for the IA straw poll, do a Google news search. The details would be there. I’m not saying Fred would win in IA, but winning among 91,000 voters indicates he has some support there. Beating expectations in IA is what IA is all about.
June 18th, 2007 at 12:57 am
“Undecided” won the poll.
Not only is that interesting . . . but it’s probably good news for Thompson and Romney (and the Huckster?)
June 18th, 2007 at 12:28 pm
Can someone help me on this? With all this talk about Iowa, NH, SC, NV and FL, being important early on exactly how many delegates are needed to secure the nomination? I believe that you need about 1200 delegates to win. However, if you factor that each candidate will probably enter super duper Tuesday with some percentage of delegates does this reduce the number?
June 19th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
Pete: From what I can find, 1,259 is the minimum number of delegates required to win the nomination at the 2008 Republican convention (as of this writing, there are scheduled to be 2,517 delegates and it takes a simple majority to win).
The first day on which over 50% of the delegates will have been selected (i.e. when a candidate could mathematically clinch the nomination if the candidate had won every delegate) will be Feb. 9, 2008 for the Democrats and Feb. 12, 2008 for the Republicans.