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Newsweek is out with its very first presidential poll for the 2008 nominations. The result from this survey, conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, are nearly identical to the current RealClearPolitics average (See figures in parentheses).
- Rudy Giuliani 27% (26.1%)
- Fred Thompson 19% (19.0%)
- John McCain 15% (15.0%)
- Mitt Romney 12% (10.0%)
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted June 20-21, 2007. The margin of error is +/- 8 percentage points for results based on 324 registered Republicans and Republican leaners.
Newt Gingrich, despite averaging over 7 percent in the most recent national polls, was not included in this survey.
The results of the head-to-head general election match-ups are worthless as Newsweek, true to their liberal ideological bent, have once again skewed their own survey’s data by deliberately polling a disproportionate number of Democrats. The survey’s breakdown was 52 percent Democrat/lean Democratic and 37 percent Republican/lean Republican. By party affiliation, it was 40 percent Democrat, 29 percent Republican and 27 percent Independent. Using the National Election Pool’s General Exit Poll from the 2006 midterm elections as a frame of reference, this Newsweek poll oversampled Democrats by nine percentage points. A Rasmussen poll released at the end of May showed there to be 5.5 percent more Democrats than Republicans. Therefore, it appears Newsweek has built in somewhere between a 5.5 and 9 point cushion for their Democratic peers; a heavy finger on the scale most certain to be ignored when reported with glee tomorrow morning by Tim Russert, George Stephanopoulos and Bob Schieffer that Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards all defeat each of the top Republican contenders.
Had Democrats not been so grossly overrepresented in this poll, if you were to remove the average 7.25 percent anti-GOP bias, Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani would have been seen defeating all three of the Democratic top tier candidates and John McCain would lead both Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.
June 23rd, 2007 at 2:55 pm
I wouldn’t be so quick to say that the newsweek poll is biased. It may be but there are 2 other factors we ought to consider:
1. I’ve read reports that since the 2006 election cycle, the number of democrats relative to republicans have increased (whether this translated to actual voters in 08 remains to be seen).
2. given the president’s low popularity, it may be that democrats are more motivate to show up then republicans (this probably wouldn’t be the case if hillary is nominated though as i’m sure she’d energize the republican base)
June 23rd, 2007 at 3:01 pm
I tend to think that Rasmussen has the party gap pegged fairly accurately given continuing anti-GOP trends in this country leading up to (and since) the last election. This would mean that Newsweek inflated the gap by 5 or 6 points and thus ensured that every Democrat beats every GOPer. I’m sure this makes Eleanor Clift feel all fuzzy, but I’m not sure what practical purpose it serves.
June 23rd, 2007 at 3:35 pm
8 point margin of error? That’s ridiculous.
June 23rd, 2007 at 3:38 pm
8 point margin of error means that not only are Rudy and FDT statistically tied but so are McCain and Mitt.
June 23rd, 2007 at 4:14 pm
That jumped out at me too. How can they expect to be reputable with an MOE of 8?
June 23rd, 2007 at 4:20 pm
The important thing is Rudy loses to Hillary and Obama by 7 and5; Mitt by 15and 16; Fred by 11 and 14. Let’s win this thing.
June 23rd, 2007 at 4:21 pm
And shouldn’t you prepare for the worst case scenario? You can’t just toss out a newsweek poll because you think it’s biased…act like it’s real, and overprepare if you need to.
June 23rd, 2007 at 4:23 pm
So Rudy runs 5 or 6 points stronger than Fred but they are stastically tied. Come on==by that game Rudy leads Fred possibly by what 13.
June 23rd, 2007 at 7:01 pm
All evidence (not my opinion) suggests Newsweek’s poll is biased. Why, as you say, “ACT like it’s real,” when not only is it not accurate, but it is a deceptive media-contrived device used to reinforce an intentionally misleading ‘inevitable Democratic victory in 2008′ narrative? This Saturday-released poll, showing ‘all of the top Democratic candidates defeating the very best the Republicans have to offer’, is used as a self-fulfilling prophecy, of sorts, to shape the coming weeks’ news cycles in the most positive of light for Democrats, and conversely, most negatively for Republicans. What Newsweek attempts to submit as fact is, at present, beyond what could reasonably be construed as the ‘worst case scenario’ for the GOP. And, that is not something for which you need to overprepare.
The recently released LA Times/Bloomberg Poll asked the same head-to-head general election questions of its respondents. In that poll, where the survey correctly used a sample in which there were 5.4 percent more Democrats than Republicans, Giuliani soundly beat Hillary in the head-to-head match-up, 49-39%.
Can you imagine the sneering and snickering from a dismissive mainstream media if Fox News were to release a poll in which Rudy Giuliani was shown to have a commanding 17-point lead over Hillary Clinton? Well, if they were to oversample Republicans by the same percentage Newsweek overrepresents Democrats, that’s the result you would get.
One other pointany news report that examines the data from this poll should note that this is a sample of registered, not likely voters, which causes polls to consistently trend even further Democratic.
June 23rd, 2007 at 7:09 pm
Aron,
I’m with you, and I agree about the media attempt to frame the story of the state of the race. I think this will eventually be a good thing though. These same media outlets, Newsweek, Time, and especially CBS/NYT have consistently oversampled Democrats in all of their polls. They did the same thing in 2004. Eventually there will be other polling outfits and state by state polls which will be more in line with the reality of the race. So once other polling companies come out with polls that show Rudy ahead in FL or show any generic Republican with a double digit lead ina few border states its going to look like the Republican candidate has the momentum…even if there is no shift in voter sentiment. These media types shoot themselves in the feet all the time and they don’t even realize it. I remwember in the last cycle when Bush really did do a terrible job in the first debate and the news media were all over it like a fly on sh*t. All Bush had to do was make it a draw with Kerry in debates 2 and 3 and he looked way better by comaprison. I say let the media try their games. It’s not going to help once more people start to pay attention.
June 23rd, 2007 at 8:04 pm
Sure the poll is biased, but the bias should be equal as to all Republicans. So compare the gaps for each Republican as against the same Demo contenders. Obvious Rudy, as of now, is the strongest candidate–excluding McCain whodoesn’t look likely to get nominated.
June 23rd, 2007 at 10:19 pm
Even if this polls is biased, it still do not change the fact that Republican Party is losing its members over the last few years. Even if Rudy do win the election, what will the political field be like in 2012 or 2016? I do see it very likely that it will be harder and harder for the principles of conservatives to be carried on. To be franky, I see that we are being dumbed down. I was barely taught in my school about US Constitution. I cannot imagine what they are teaching in schools nowadays. Last I heard, they teach the students about it only for one day out of the whole year. The less people understand what US Constitution is about, the more people will expect wrongly from the Federal Government. And… this is one of the big concerns that social conservatives have