Here is a summary of Fred?s June fundraising numbers. On the fundraisers, the two that were for his candidacy were the ones held in Nashville and Los Angeles. Every other appearance did not go towards his campaign. Here are the basic outlines:

75% (6,888) of the contributors gave less than $200.
Time covered: June 1-30
Total Raised: $3,462,355.05
Total expenses: $625,745.97
Biggest Single Expense: Web hardware $66,750
Payroll total (including taxes): $106,852
Burn rate: 18.0%
Fundraising events included: 2
Number of donors: 9,167
Avg. contribution: $369.87
Number of online donors: 7,534
Total online donations: $771,783
Number of donors under $200 (small donors): 6,888
Contributions came from 50 states and D.C

Some of his prominent doners (Source1, Source2):

Peyton Manning!- The Two time NFL MVP, 7 time Pro Bowler, and Super Bowl winning Quarterback from the University of Tennessee gave the maximum amount of $2300
John M. Dowd ? a Washington, D.C., attorney and former John McCain backer ? donated $2,300 (his wife Carol Dowd donate the same amount)
Eugene Volokh ? prominent UCLA law professor and libertarian blogger ? donated $750
Al D’Amato ? a former New York senator who endorsed Mr. Thompson on NY1 earlier this year ? donated $2,300
Douglas J. Feith ? a former undersecretary of defense and architect of the Iraq war ? donated $2,300
Kirby Wilbur ? prominent conservative Washington State radio host ? donated $2,300
Fred Malek- president of Thayer Capital Partners and a huge fundraising poobah, and one of Sen. John McCain’s finance chairmen
Mack Mattingly- former senator from Georgia who endorsed Thompson
Johnnie Byrd- former Florida House Speaker and 2004 Senate candidate

Wapo?s Chris Calliza added this, which I think is a fair assessment:

Overall, Thompson’s numbers are just fine for a first month of fundraising… His take is probably not good enough to remove him from the morass of bad publicity. But, his cash haul is also far from determinative when calculating Thompson’s chances at the nomination.

The Gallup Poll: Public Confidence in Presidential Hopefuls on Key 2008 Election Issues

Trust in candidates to handle the war in Iraq

• Rudy Giuliani 55%
• John McCain 55%
• Barack Obama 54%
• Hillary Clinton 51%
• John Edwards 50%
• Fred Thompson 39%
• Mitt Romney 37%

Among Republicans only, Giuliani topped this list at 75%, followed by McCain at 67%, Thompson with 57% and Romney, 49%.

Trust in candidates to handle terrorism

• Rudy Giuliani 69%
• John McCain 66%
• Hillary Clinton 55%
• Barack Obama 53%
• John Edwards 48%
• Fred Thompson 42%
• Mitt Romney 38%

Among Republicans only, Giuliani topped this list at 83%, followed by McCain at 76%, Thompson with 59% and Romney, 51%.

Trust in candidates to handle the healthcare system

• Hillary Clinton 65%
• Barack Obama 61%
• John Edwards 54%
• Rudy Giuliani 52%
• John McCain 45%
• Mitt Romney 36%
• Fred Thompson 35%

Among Republicans only, Giuliani topped this list at 71%, followed by McCain at 58%, Thompson with 52% and Romney, 45%.

Trust in candidates to handle the economy

• Barack Obama 62%
• Hillary Clinton 61%
• Rudy Giuliani 60%
• John McCain 53%
• John Edwards 51%
• Mitt Romney 40%
• Fred Thompson 39%

Among Republicans only, Giuliani topped this list at 79%, followed by McCain at 66%, Thompson with 57% and Romney, 53%.

Survey of 1,011 American adults was conducted July 23-26. The percentages reflect a combination of those who responded by saying a “great deal” or “fair amount.” The maximum margin of sampling error is ?4 percentage points.

I just got back from Vacation a few days ago. Spent some time in California visiting my family and Southern Utah visiting my wifes family. I quickly realized that my family is in fact better. Just Kidding. But it did give my mind the much needed break from hounding the Google pages and looking for anything about 2008. No matter how hard the first couple days were.

When I came back it was hard to get myself back to blogging, because the freedom from the computer, bought with a price, was a special prize. But I am back, and ready to shove Romney down your throats.

Now on with my post…

Since I left things seem to have taken a dramatic turn for Fred. Is he done? Not even close. Is he wounded? Yes. But it’s no real surprise. There are two reasons in my book why the Fred Thompson’s campaign seems to be suffering right now, and frankly it will continue:

1. His supporters have made Fred the God of all things conservative2008, and he gladly accepts it.

2. His lack of an official campaign gives some credence to the laziness charge, but more importantly it has turned him into a paper tiger.

I will address the first, first.

Now, I know I am a Romney supporter, and Fred is bottom of my list, (well not bottom- a step above Brownback.) But believe me, when I say it, if Fred should win I will support him just a strongly as I have Romney. But he has got some serious problems/dichotomies in his campaign - many of which are self imposed. I am not writing him off, but part of Fred’s credibility as a candidate has certainly been diminished, and only time will tell if he can rebuild it.

One thing I thought that I remembered about ARG is that they have been consistent, although many have disputed their results. A look at their trends show that their last poll in June had:

South Carolina ARG Poll June

John McCain 23%
Rudy Giuliani 22%
Fred Thompson 19%
Mitt Romney 8%
Newt Gingrich 6%

Now, compare it to July:

Rudy Giuliani 28%
Fred Thompson 27%
John McCain 10%
Newt Gingrich 7%
Mitt Romney 7%

So, we have these trends:
Fred Thompson +8%
Rudy Giuliani +6%
Newt Gingrich +1%
Mitt Romney -1%
John McCain -13%

Rudy continues to draw well in South Carolina, while Thompson has gained the most support in the last month. McCain has plummeted, while Romney and Gingrich have had little movement in either direction.

Siena GOP New York Primary?(Crosstabs)

• Rudy Giuliani 40% (48%)
• John McCain 13% (13%)
• Fred Thompson 11% (11%)
• Newt Gingrich 9% (4%)
• Mitt Romney 7% (6%)

Survey of 176 Republicans was conducted July 24-28. The margin of error is +/-7.4%. Results from the poll taken in June are in parentheses.

General Election Match-Ups

• Hillary Clinton 57%
• Rudy Giuliani 36%

• Hillary Clinton 62%
• Fred Thompson 28%

• Barack Obama 51%
• Rudy Giuliani 40%

Survey of 620 registered New York voters was conducted July 24-28. The margin of error is +/-3.9%.

From the Hill:

More than 9,000 donors contributed a total $3.4 million to likely presidential candidate and former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) in June, according to reports his 527 committee filed with the IRS Tuesday.

Though the figure was widely reported Monday, the narrative following the amount seems to be one of a struggling would-be campaign.

Not so, say campaign officials.

Thompson managed to raise an impressive amount of money in one month with only two fundraisers, no direct mail and no telephone support, the exploratory committee said in a release.

The campaign raised the figure from more than 9,000 donors; 7,500 of them were online and 6,888 contributed less than $200.

The campaign noted that only $625,746, or 18 percent of the total, had been spent. The campaign spent more than $106,852 on payroll.

Friends of Fred Thompson Inc. filed as a 527 on June 4. Because he filed as a 527 group, Thompson has not had to file quarterly reports with the Federal Election Commission.

The former senator attended a number of fundraisers in July, including one Monday night in Washington.

UPDATE: I will have a more in depth look at his numbers later.

Rudy Giuliani

• Giuliani picks up four more endorsements from members of Congress
• Giuliani Gives Details On Market-Based Health Plan
  Insurance Would Be Portable, Bought With Tax Credits
• Giuliani Offers Health Care Plan
• Giuliani Offers Rx On Health Care
• In their own words: Giuliani’s health care proposals
• Giuliani Calls for Tax Breaks to Buy Health Insurance
  By Marc Santora
• Rudy Giuliani Discusses His Commitment To Giving Americans Increased Control And Access To Health Care
• Giuliani unveils health plan, but uninsured left out
  By Craig Gordon, Newsday
• Giuliani attacks Democratic health plans as ’socialist’
• Pennsylvania Congressmen Endorse Rudy Giuliani for President
• Rudy’s House Call
• Giuliani Talks Tough in Rochester
• Giuliani’s Princess Bride
  By Judy Bachrach, Vanity Fair
• Giuliani Responds to ‘Princess Bride’
• Sack the ‘Nannies,’ Says Rudy
• Clinton, Giuliani lead new Iowa caucus poll
• Giuliani campaigns in Connecticut
• Rudy the Razzer
  Will Giuliani’s Beat-up-on-Democrats Strategy Backfire?
  By John Dickerson
• Giuliani feels bad about Bloomberg moving Sept. 11 ceremony
• A Mild Appetite For Giuliani

Fred Thompson

• Actor’s presidential ambitions are put on hold
  By Rupert Cornwell
• Thompson Flip Flops on Taxes?
  Thompson Pledge — Now Denied — Would Impose 23 Percent Sales Tax
• Fred Thompson?s Long ?Exploration? Raises Money ? and Confusion
• Fred Thompson Faces a Few Bumps
  Analysis: Republican Fred Thompson’s Road to Official Candidacy Less Than Smooth
• Manning, Baker, Feith Among Notable Names Giving to Fred
• Fred Alert! Cash Woes Jolt GOPer
  Just $3M in Chest
• Thompson Cash Total Raises Doubts
• Crack in Thompson’s Southern Strategy
• Fair Tax Cost Thompson More Credibility
• Fred Thompson reports raising more than $3.4 million
• Not Ready for Takeoff
  Can the wheels come off a wagon that hasn’t left the assembly line?
  By Dan Balz
• On Thompson’s $3 million
  By Jay Cost

John McCain

• Is McCain Back? The Underdog Fights On
  McCain, now an underdog, likes where he finds himself.
• McCain campaigns in Pittsburgh via speakerphone
• McCain comes to Cincinnati area for fund-raiser
• McCain talks up himself
  Also praises liberal Democrat Sherrod Brown

Mitt Romney

• Latest Romney ad hones in on immigration
• Romney?s New Immigration Ad
  By Michael Luo
• Floridians Among Romney’s Money Team
• Romney says his religion not a concern

Newt Gingrich

• Report from the World That Works, Part II
• Gingrich calls Detroit a disaster, draws ire
• Gingrich stands by criticism of Detroit schools
  School board chief disputes severity of graduation woes cited in TV interview

General Race 4 2008 News

• White House 2008 Rankings: The Republicans
  Rudy Rises to the Top
• Early States vs. February 5
• Kenneth Starr’s Law Firm Gives More Money to Clinton
• Iraq Math: From One, Make Three
  IS Joe Biden auditioning to be the next secretary of state?
  By Helene Cooper
• President Petraeus?
  By Ed Garvey
• Chief Justice Roberts Checks Out of Hospital, Says He’s Fine
• Approaching Ames
  By Chris Cillizza
• Health care? Why not universal food?
  By Deroy Murdock
• It’s not how you look, it’s how you present yourself
  By Peter Canellos
• Faith Playing Big Role in Presidential Race Amid Evangelical Shift
  All the candidates in the 2008 presidential race claim to be Christians and never has religion played such a prominent role since John F. Kennedy became the first Catholic president.
• Tommy Thompson and Mike Huckabee Agree to Participate in YouTube Debate
  OK, but will they remain in the Race 4 ‘08 after Ames?
• Tancredo Offers D.C. Vacation for Votes in Iowa Straw Poll
• House Majority Whip Clyburn: Positive Report by Petraeus Could Split House Democrats on War
• New York Times to Collaborate With NBC News on 2008 Presidential Election Coverage
• Lieberman escalates attack on Iraq critics
• Turning Point?
  An op-ed and a war.
• Is the Surge Working?
  By Michael Barone
• U.S. death toll in Iraq for July hit 8-month low
• Look who’s running for president
• Centrist Democrats take on left over Iraq
• Bloggers unleash fury on optimistic op-ed
  By Mike Allen and Avi Zenilman
• Al-Qaeda praises Red Mosque ‘martyrs’

Updated- Here are the complete results:

American Research Group Iowa Caucus Poll, conducted July 26th-30th, 2007

• Rudy Giuliani 22%
• Mitt Romney 21%
• John McCain 13%
• Fred Thompson 13%
• Newt Gingrich 4%
• Tommy Thompson 2%
• Duncan Hunter 2%
• All others <2%
• Undecided 17%

Here’s the breakdown: Mitt Romney leads Rudy Giuliani 24% to 21% among Republicans in Iowa. However, the MOE is ? 4.

American Research Group New Hampshire Poll, conducted July 26th-30th, 2007

• Rudy Giuliani 27%
• Mitt Romney 26%
• Fred Thompson 13%
• John McCain 10%
• Newt Gingrich 6%
• All others <2%
• Undecided 13%

Giuliani leads Romney 31% to 29% among Republicans in New Hampshire, while Fred Thompson leads Romney 25% to 20% among independents in New Hampshire, with Giuliani at 19%. Once again, the MOE is ? 4.

American Research Group South Carolina Poll, conducted July 26th-30th, 2007

• Rudy Giuliani 28%
• Fred Thompson 27%
• John McCain 10%
• Newt Gingrich 7%
• Mitt Romney 7%
• Mike Huckabee 3%
• Ron Paul 3%
• All others <2%
• Undecided 13%

Giuliani leads Fred Thompson 29% to 25% among Republicans in South Carolina, while Fred Thompson leads Giuliani 43% to 17% among independents in South Carolina, with McCain at 14%. The MOE is ? 4.

The main criticism of ARG polls around the blogosphere is that they oversample Independents. So let’s all agree to concentrate on just the Republican results. In these polls (all with a MOE of ? 4) Mitt leads Rudy 24% to 21% in IA, Rudy leads Mitt 31% to 29% in NH, and Hizzoner bests FDT in SC 29% to 25%.

GOP Nomination:

• Fred Thompson 26%
• Rudy Giuliani 24%
• Mitt Romney 12%
• John McCain 12%
• Mike Huckabee 4%
• Sam Brownback 3%

Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

With the virtual orgy of schadenfreude yesterday regarding Thompson’s fundraising, I thought a little perspective might be in order.

Rudy raised approx $260,000 in his first month of fundraising. John McCain raised approx $1.1 million in his first month. That would bring Thompson in at 10 times Rudy’s totals and over 3 times McCain’s-and this was without utilizing direct mail or telephone fundraising.

Now Thompson should definitely be subject to criticism for his reluctance to get in to the race, roll up his sleeves, and do the hard work that all of the other candidates are (his refusal to enter debates alongside his Republican competitors is also puzzling considering his tough guy image.)

That all being said, $3 million in his first month without doing really anything substantial should be recognized as a harbinger of good things to come, not as a sign of weakness.

The level at which some are willing to trumpet these numbers as a sign of impending doom for Team Thompson is really emblematic of the level of anxiety that Thompson’s nascent campaign is causing in some circles.

From the Press Release:

Announcing his endorsement of Governor Romney today, Lieutenant Governor Bolling said, “I have carefully considered all of the Republican candidates for President in 2008. While they are all good men, I believe that Mitt Romney is the best candidate to carry the Republican banner in the 2008 presidential campaign.”

“Mitt Romney also has the right vision for the future of our country. We can trust him to keep America safe at home by defeating the Jihadists abroad; and keep America strong by reigning in government spending, keeping taxes low, protecting the values we believe in, and confronting head on the new generation of challenges currently facing our nation,” Bolling continued.

Background On Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling:

In 2005, Bill Bolling Was Elected To Serve As The 40th Lieutenant Governor Of Virginia. In a year that favored Democrats, Bolling received more votes that any other Republican candidate for statewide office. He is widely recognized as one of Virginia’s most effective conservative leaders. Prior to his election as Lieutenant Governor, Bolling served for ten years in the Virginia State Senate. He also has experience in local government, serving as Chairman of the Hanover County Board of Supervisors prior to his election to the Senate. Nationally, Bolling serves as Chairman of the Republican Lieutenant Governors Association. He is also a member of the Executive Committee of the National Lieutenant Governors Association.

[Update: Helping the dots connect]

From Wapo we have this:

It was not two months ago that Fred Thompson tantalized a crowd of more than 400 Virginia Republicans at a state GOP party fundraiser in Richmond, laying out his conservative principles for the first time after making his first official filing toward a presidential campaign. “Folks, we’re a bit down politically right now, but I think we’re on the comeback trail, and it’s going to start right here,” rumbled the actor and former Tennessee senator, to loud applause. For good measure, he threw in some Southern quips and references, to remind the crowd that he, unlike the other leading GOP candidates, hailed from Dixie. At that moment, the support of Virginia Republicans seemed his for the taking.

It hasn’t exactly worked out that way for Thompson in the state, a letdown that could be seen as emblematic of Thompson’s troubles in taking flight nationally. This morning, the state’s top ranking Republican elected official, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, will endorse Mitt Romney at a press conference in Richmond The endorsement is a coup for the former Massachusetts governor, who is eager to show that he is viable in the South despite languishing in the polls in South Carolina, where the first Southern primary votes will be cast. Tonight, Romney heads over to Virginia Beach for a fundraising dinner. As notable as the endorsement, perhaps, is that Romney’s fundraising in Virginia did not fall off a cliff with Thompson’s entrance onto the stage — Romney collected $308,000 in the state in the quarter ending June 30, compared with about $466,000 in the first quarter, a dropoff more or less in line with Romney’s fundraising pace nationally over the first half of the year. Likewise, Rudy Giuliani collected $300,000 in the state in the second quarter, on top of about $438,000 in the first quarter.

Reports that Fred’s money machine may not be firing on all cylinders leads me to share what I?ve learned about fundraising in the last three years: it is very hard work.

But if you have the right model you can accomplish amazing things. As a comparison note that Romney raised about $3 million before lunch was over at his fundraising kickoff. The contrast is stark.

Here are some quick thoughts on what it takes to raise money.

First and foremost, understand some of the underlying rules of fundraising:

1. ?People give to people to help people? ? I?ve been working with non-profit organizations for over a decade. Without fail, a general clarion-call for money will fail compared to a plea for a specific cause, especially when it?s linked with a picture and a story. You need to have a compelling story with a person who can conjure up a compelling reason to compell people to open their wallets.

2. ?People give relative to their means? ? No matter what the cause, the dollar amount of donations from the 35-60 crowd will far outweigh the 20-30 crowd for one simple reason: they have $ to spend.

3. ?Those closest must set the pace? ? When Romney kicked off the exploratory committee with a national call day January 8th, the 5 Romney boys set the example for the other 400 fundraisers by sticking at their tables for the entire duration of the event. When Meg Whitman, CEO of Ebay takes 9 hours out of her day to sit at another table and ask people for money it makes an impact on everyone around her.

Next we need to take a look at the trends in fundraisings:

1. Growing use of the Internet for fundraising ? ?Growing? is the operative word. By most accounts donations raised via the Internet are pithy and underwhelming. Only a handful of non-profit organizations have shown more than 6 figures in online fundraising. The trend is obviously toward the Internet but it has not been the harbinger of $$$ that many expected.

2. Innovation and adopting new practices and models ? The key to fundraising is innovation. I wager that any one of us receives half-a-dozen letters a week soliciting for donations. Standing out above the noise is the key to successful fundraising. Take for instance Romney?s ?Students for Mitt? program where college students can receive 10% back on everything they raise for the campaign.

3. Involve everyone in fundraising ? I know some professional fundraisers who were very upset at the Romney campaign for opening the floodgates to anyone and everyone. But it?s paid off. For example, as a ?Patriot? level fundraiser I have the ability to create ?associate fundraisers?. I get credit for whatever money they bring in and they in turn get credit for being part of a successful team of advocates.

4. Contemporary corporate marketing practices ? Like any aged market, the political sphere has its own consultants, approaches, and software packages. Most every political campaign uses Aristotle Publishing for voter lists and most every 501(c)4 uses Capitol Advantage for online advocacy. Romney has broke the fundraising mold by utilizing a contact management system called SalesForce.com typically utilized by large and dispersed sales and business development groups.

5. MOST IMPORTANT: FOCUS ON DONORS: When you give $2300 dollars to a campaign you are the man (or at least you should be treated like ?the man?.) Next to your unpaid fundraisers you must focus like a laser beam on your high end contributors. By creating incentives and time factors into your efforts you create an energetic need to get involved and ?max out?. Romney has held numerous incentive-bases time-sensitive fundraising efforts to meet this challenge

Lastly, you need to understand WHY people give:

? They believe you are making a difference in a cause they care about.
? They value your work
? They see it as an investment
? They get something in return
? They feel good about themselves
? Returning a favor
? Solving a problem
? Sending a message
? Receiving quality information
? Aligning with peers
? Bringing justice to the world

If you cater your message to these efforts your fundraising effort might just work. But note this: by my calculations 60-70% of the money that Romney has raised has been at in-person events.

I?ve said this before but I believe that Fred is one election too early to concentrate on the virtual handshake. Romney has hosted approximately 120 in-person fundraising events since January. The average take at these events is probably $150,000+. You do the math. Better yet, Fred better do it.

First, let me preface this piece by reminding everyone that I have no animus towards Fred Thompson. To the contrary, I think Thompson is a product of the pre-Bush conservatism of the 1990s, i.e., unhyphenated conservatism, before the word came to be redefined by social meddlers and various strains of idealists. Further, Thompson’s refusal to genuflect to those who think presidential candidates should be papable by embracing instead of disavowing his wild past makes a freedom-loving guy like me smile faster than you can say, “Barry Goldwater.” I certainly hope all of that softens the coming blow w/r/t Fred’s supporters on the site.

As R4′08er MattC reported today, Fred Thompson’s fundraising numbers have thus far failed to impress. Fred’s three-million-dollar June says a lot more about the state of the GOP, conservatism, and the country than it does about Fred Thompson though. More specifically, Thompson’s fundraising woes demonstrate that Cocoon Conservatives are totally misreading the vacuum that exists in the race for 2008.

By, “Cocoon Conservatives,” I mean the sort of conservatives who think that 2004 was the beginning of a permanent Republican majority, that all the polls are wrong, and that 2006 happened because Republicans didn’t support Bush enough, weren’t socially conservative enough, etc. These conservatives refuse to recognize that the Bush Coalition — a motley crew of social meddlers at home and idealistic interventionalists abroad, all united under the flag of an evangelical president — is obsolete, busted, and, like the most recent comparable coalition, the one assembled by President McKinley over a century ago, will probably fail to return for yet another 100 years. Those in the cocoon fail to realize that 2004 was a lagging indicator, not a primer of elections to come, that 2006 was the revenge of the independents, and that Republicans are facing such an uphill climb in 2008 due to disaffected folks in the center, not because the red states need sufficient red meat.

What does all of this have to do with Thompson? Prior to Thompson’s release of his fundraising numbers, there was a conventional wisdom starting to develop on the conservative blogosphere that the reason Republican fundraising numbers this year pale in comparison to Democratic numbers is that conservatives are holding tight their purse strings. Conservatives, so went the narrative, were not about to donate one red-state red cent to Rudy McRomney, and would instead hold on to their culturally conservative millions until a True Conservative entered the race. At that point, the floodgates would open, the band would get back together, and a revived Red State Coalition would propel Republicans into office yet one more time.

Well, we now know just how much the red-state holdouts are worth. The single-issue types, the ones who we Republicans are supposed to perpetually coddle, lest they (gasp!) sit on their hands and refuse to donate or volunteer are apparently the equivalent of a McDonald’s value meal in presidential fundraising terms. Contrast these meager funds with the tens of millions of dollars in Clinton’s and Obama’s coffers and the whole scenario becomes laughable. So the single-issue types are going to go golfing if we nominate Rudy? Let them. They could apparently all fit quite comfortably into one moderately sized minivan.

Conservatives living in the cocoon will eventually have to wake up and realize that maybe, just maybe, the GOP isn’t suffering because we’ve forgotten the lessons of 2004. Instead, Republicans need to re-learn the lessons of 2006 and run a campaign based on connecting with disaffected independents. It is they, and not any sort of Rovian base voter, who will decide the race for 2008.

As most of you know, Newt Gingrich has been in contact with Fred Thompson, and Newt has now confirmed this. Some might ignore it, or brush it off, but a Gingrich endorsement still carries weight. See what former senator and GOP nominee Bob Dole had to say a couple of days ago, via Bloomberg:

Bob Dole says his preferred presidential candidate, Arizona Senator John McCain, is fading and that his support is likely to be “picked up” by Fred Thompson, who is expected to announce his candidacy for the Republican nomination in September.

It has been reported on every major news outlet that Gingrich has been aiding the Thompson team, and been involved with policy discussion. He is leaving the door open for his own possible run, but only if Thompson fails to hold his traction in the polls, according to earlier reports.

from ABC:

ABC News’ Tahman Bradley Reports: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich R-Ga., confirmed that he and his wife Calista recently had dinner with Republican presidential-candidate-in-waiting Fred Thompson and his wife Jeri.

“Yes, we had a very nice dinner with Jerri and Fred?,” Gingrich said Sunday in an interview on Fox News.

Gingrich did not answer a question about whether he would endorse Thompson if and when the former Tennessee senator enters the race, but said he believes Thompson will be “a very formidable candidate” in a Republican presidential field that features several strong candidates.

Don’t forget that former Gingrich aide Rich Galen has signed on with Thompson as well. If the Thompson run fails, wanna take a wild guess where at least 20 of his 25% support goes? Here’s a thought…. it would split, with Gingrich picking up the southern loyalists and the majority, and the rest likely going back to Rudy Giuliani, unless he declares full out war with Thompson this early in the game, which would alienate the large number of staunch Thompson backers. Remember that it is Giuliani who has gone from near 40% to 24% since Fred spoke of a possible run, and it is quite likely much of that support would trend back, or to Newt. So in reality, Fred is a win-win situation for Rudy. Granted, Rudy has to fight off Thompson for the nomination, but if Thompson failed, he would be a beneficiary, along with Gingrich. And before you bring up all of Newt’s baggage, let me leave you with a quote from none other than Ronald Reagan, from Robert Novak’s fascinating autobiography, ‘The Prince of Darkness’:

“After my marriage (to Jane Wyman) broke up, Reagan said, I tried to go to bed with every starlet in Hollywood. [Reagan paused and smiled] And I damn near succeeded. That was before I met Nancy.”
- Robert Novak: The Prince of Darkness, p. 270

Gosh, where have I heard something that sounds very similar to that and is being scrutinized by some? Now, I not only bring this up to refer to the comments on Thompson’s trophy wife and bachelor life during the 1990’s. I bring this up because some have been quick to scrutinize the private lives of Rudy Giuliani and Newt Gingrich as well. Who are we to criticize failed marriages? Before anybody claims moral superiority, let’s remember who every candidate constantly likes to remind us of. Would you have been as judgemental of Reagan in 1980 if that quote was leaked to the press? If today’s media had covered politics back then and our candidates attacked each others personal lives, we probably would’ve had two terms of Jimmy the Peanut Carter, if 1980 had our partisan atmosphere. Maybe that’s something we should think about.

Rudy Giuliani

• Giuliani: Dems want nanny government
• Giuliani Calls For Market Approach To Health Care
  Presidential Candidate Calls For Incentives, Consumer Choice
• Giuliani?s Health Care Plan
  By Marc Santora, New York Times
• Giuliani Names Charleston-area Leadership
• Giuliani Calls for Cuomo Probe of Spitzer With Subpoena Power
• Giuliani & Health Care
• Mr. Mayor vs. Mr. Moore
• Mark McClellan Hasn’t Endorsed Giuliani
• Giuliani to unveil his health care plan
  By Craig Gordon, Newsday
• Paranoid Media Takes on Giuliani
  By Russ Smith
• Giuliani Fights Democrats Over Health Plans
  By Russell Berman
• Giuliani Takes His Campaign Tour To Romney’s N.H. Summer Place
  By Seth Gitell

Fred Thompson

• Thompson Raised $3 Million in June
• Thompson’s $3 Million Defense
• Fred’s Fundraising
• Fred on Eminent Domain
• Fred’s Funds Fall Fast
• Thompson’s ‘virtual’ campaign experiencing real bumps
• Thompson on Horseback
  By Richard Cohen
• Fred Thompson Came Up Short in June Money

John McCain

• McCain Death Watch: Cruise Edition
• Buyer’s Remorse
  John McCain Learns You Can’t Un-sell Out.
  by Michael Crowley

Mitt Romney

• In contrast to rivals, Romney?s family helps his campaign
• Romney greets large crowd at Smokey Row
• Key Massachusetts Health Plan Architect Has Ear Of Top ‘08 Candidates
• Bolling to lend support to Romney
• Media Exposure, Romney Campaign Put LDS Church in Spotlight

Newt Gingrich

• Gingrich slams Detroit public schools, unions and the state
• Video: Detroit School Official Shoots Back at Newt
• Gingrich: ‘Fundamentally Flawed System’

General Race 4 2008 News

• Giuliani, Romney Take Republican Lead
  By Martin Frost, Former Democratic Congressman from Dallas
• Tancredo disputes label “war on terror”
• Tommies Thompson, Tancredo come courting
• Graham: Failed immigration bill helped border spending amendment
• YouTube Debate Not Revolutionary
  By Rush Limbaugh
• Brown, Bush Show Unity on Iraq
• Chief Justice John Roberts Hospitalized After Fall
• A Case of Euro Envy
  The root cause of Corporate America’s disingenuous drive to cut its taxes.
• Bill Clinton sands edges of Obama ’spat’
• Balz on Bloomberg and Obama
• Clinton avoids the Hispanic vote’s rifts
  Obama can learn from her navigating tricky South Florida waters.
• FBI, IRS searching Senator Stevens’ Girdwood house
• No Time To Lose: Candidates Eye Primaries
• Changes Planned For Ames Straw Poll
  Organizers Provide More Voting Venues
• Power of prayer takes on power of money
  By Roger Simon
• The Media and Polls
• Ron Paul brings back a wacky post 9/11 bill
  Bounty Hunters for Bin Laden?
• No booby prizes in this campaign
• Power And Politicians
  By Bill Murchison
• A New Escapade
  by Robert Novak
• The New York Times’ John Burns: “The Possibility Of As Many As A Million Iraqis Dying.” (Full Transcript)

First off

Yes, the fundraising for June tampered off of expectations. I just found out about the numbers myself, as I’ve been away all day. However, Thompson has sent out no letters, no phone calls, etc… This is strictly from a handful of fundraisers and the internet alone. Half of Thompson’s June appearences were for raising money for the party, and not his campaign. In total, there were 3 fundraisers, and add that the fact that he’s not a candidate yet, that’s not terrible for a late entry start up with a month of planning. However, since some here are so quick to criticize and compare at this point, I guess that makes everything fair game.

Update from Ryan Sager:

I may characterize Fred Thompson’s $3 million haul for June as “not great.” But let me qualify that in one important way:

* “Not great” doesn’t = “very bad.” $3 million is a decent number, on track roughly with how John McCain did each month of the last quarter. But, with a much lower burn rate than Mr. McCain, Mr. Thompson is building up a war chest that could run a credible campaign, come the expected formal announcement in September.

And although it’s different, compared to Giuliani and McCain’s first months, that ain’t bad for being undeclared, although it’s different circumstances.

Now, ABC reports today that Thompson will support the Fair Tax pledge. That makes 6 of our candidates. From ABC News:

He is not yet an official presidential candidate but former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has already promised voters he’d sign a major overhaul of the American tax system if passed by Congress.

Asked last week on camera if he would sign the “Fair Tax” bill if it were passed by the House and Senate, the “Law & Order” actor said, “Yeah, absolutely.”

The five other Republican presidential candidates who have pledged to sign the Fair Tax bill into law if passed by Congress are Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

The Brownback campaign announced today its “Pastors for Brownback” advisory committee, an impressive list of Iowa pastors supporting Brownback for president.

Christians across the Hawkeye state continue to rally behind Senator Brownback and his pro-life, pro-family, pro-freedom message, as the Associated Press has noted. The Pastors for Brownback team also joins an impressive Faith and Family Leadership Committee.

Other coalitions launched include Vietnamese for Brownback, Catholics for Brownback, Taxpayers for Brownback, and Moms for Brownback (with an official website launched today).

There’s a great piece in the American Spectator today by Jennifer Rubin (occasional contributor to R4′08) regarding Wendy Long, the chief counsel to the Judicial Confirmation Network. Wendy Long endorsed Mitt Romney last week and became his senior legal advisor and vice chair of his National Faith and Values Steering Committee, a move that Rubin calls “a political coup” because the conventional wisdom was that she would endorse and work for Fred Thompson. She explains why she chose Mitt instead:

She candidly acknowledges that she always liked Fred Thompson, in part because his support of causes like Scooter Libby “warmed her heart,” but ultimately concluded that Thompson could “not hold a candle to the Governor on intellect or leadership.” She contends that Romney is “the constitutionalist” in the race, meaning he best understands and supports concepts of federalism and the commitment to originalism in interpreting the Constitution.

Long also explains that leadership “matters tremendously” in selecting a president. For her this includes “the ability to direct the many and far flung team” that a president needs to confirm judges and lead the Justice Department. She cites Romney’s experience in business and running the Olympics and as Governor as proof he can “lead a large organization and then delegate” to competent managers.

Long argues that Romney “is the only one I’m absolutely sure” will give us more nominees like Justices Alito and Roberts.

Long is an articulate spokesperson both to bolster Romney’s conservative credentials and to take aim at Thompson, the opponent who clearly will pose a threat to his efforts to woo social conservatives.

Mike Allen over at The Politico has confirmed the rumors MSNBC heard last week: Fred Thompson raised just over $3 million in June for his “Testing the Waters” Committee.

I’ll let the article speak for itself:

“Fred’s Funds raise fear of flop…

But many Republicans have turned queasy as Thompson has ousted part of