GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Your latest prediction from what has become the daily guesstimation game.
From the Hill:
Rep. Zach Wamp (R-Tenn.) said Monday that he expects former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) to soon join the race for the White House.
?My view is that he?ll enter the race at some point just in the coming days,? said Wamp, a key supporter of Thompson.
Comment: You’re guess is as good as mine as to what “coming days” means exactly.
July 17th, 2007 at 12:02 pm
I saw him on Fox, too…Zach Wamp also said that by january he expects the race to be between FDT and Mitt. That statement shows the ignorance and denial on the part of some republicans regarding the candidacy of Rudy Giuliani. Could it be that a catholic, Italian…intelligent, dynamic leader from the northeast is too much for some republicans to swallow?
July 17th, 2007 at 12:28 pm
If anything Mitt is falling…. and it will be between Rudy and Fred
July 17th, 2007 at 1:00 pm
Sorry, Mitt is still trending upward. You have to ignore random noise between polls.
http://www.pollster.com/
July 17th, 2007 at 1:02 pm
This will be a 2 and 2 halfs candidates race. Rudy and Fred as the two main
candidates and Romney and Huckabee as the “lesser candidates” holding the
balance between the 2. Can you say brokered convention
July 17th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
Shameful………….. in the meantime on the dem side they have a solid, clearcut contest going on
July 17th, 2007 at 1:19 pm
Unfortunately, I can, though I think that, if it happens, it will be a three-way split. If the race continues at its current pace, Romney will take most of the early states, as well as a good section of the west and part of the midwest. Rudy will take the Northeast (minus a couple of states) and part of the midwest, Thompson will take a good section of the south.
Of Course, many things can happen, candidates can pick up and loose momentum within a couple of weeks, and there is no way to gauge how much Ames, the remaining debates (quite a few of them) and the early primaries will effect things. There is also always the chance of a bombshell or endorsements swinging the race, so its probably too early to tell how things will play.
I hope to God the GOP can sort out its marbles before the Convention. If we have a split convention, I think we go into the race at an automatic disadvantage - no matter the nominee. I can’t think of a split convention in any recent election that produced a winner.
July 17th, 2007 at 1:21 pm
wow, i haven’t heard that before. Fred is probably going to announce in the upcoming days. I have been hearing that since march.
hard to understand Jake’s assesment that Mitt is falling. Not sure what that means when you are up in like 4 of the first 5 caucus states.
he has his hurdles to overcome but counting him out is naive i think.
i personally think the race is still completly fluid. there is no frontrunner yet and anything could happen. I think it is pretty difficult to put a finger on the race until fred has been in for a month or two.
I still think rudy will fade as time goes, not completly, but his leading post will fade and eventually his strategy to ignore the early states for super tuesday will prove to be a fatal one.
July 17th, 2007 at 1:24 pm
I agree. the longer Fred waits the more it is hurting us. we need to get behind someone and get on with it. i am tired of the media hammering us for not knowing what is going on and not raising money. lets get it on with guliani, romney, and fred and see who proves to be the best.
i wish fred would get his butt in there and be there for the debate in august. so annoying.
July 17th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
I wouldn’t count on Fred being at the next debate, they hype will die out fast once he enters and he knows it.
July 17th, 2007 at 2:00 pm
JON how can you say Rudy will fade?? Do you honestly think that Romney is going to somehow, miraculously become this amazing, likable, regular guy, superstar candidate just because he wins in Iowa? If he hasn’t caught fire yet with the general population, he never will. Also, Rudy is not ignoring the early states - - he simply is just not participatying in the silly Ames straw poll.
I didn’t want to go here again about Romney, but he is so out of touch with regular people and THAT is why he is not popular. That is not to say I have extreme confidence that republicans will nominate the right guy - - the Fred Thompson thing weve got going on here is a pretty lame, sad prospect for us.
July 17th, 2007 at 2:25 pm
KT, at least at this point in the race though Romney is mostly concerned about primary voters, which are people that are quite interested in politics, not the general populace. When you look at insiders and endorsements, Romney has a surprising number of people behind him. He may just pull off the primary even though his general poll numbers aren’t up there yet.
He is impressive to watch, not just because he’s a good orator or debator, but because I think his views are actually very favorable to Republicans. It’s hard to get that message out though when people aren’t focusing on what his message actually is. Instead, they focus on insignificant factors, that seems to be getting the most press time.
It’s really funny to me the kinds of attacks that have been mounted against Romney. They don’t have corruption or scandal, so they come up with “Doggeygate”. They slam him for supporting pornography, when in reality he is probably the candidate most willing to stand up against that. They slam him for not being Christian, and then when people find out he believes Jesus is his savior it surprises people and makes him look favorable. They can’t slam him on his voting record for guns so they slam him for his hunting record. Does it strike anyone else as odd that he gets slammed for stupid insignificant things rather than something of substance?
Romney will benefit a lot from further debate, he’ll be able to make his case for his stances and I think people will find them very favorable. Right now, the perception a lot of people have about the candidates isn’t based on substance. America’s Mayor, the actor persona, etc. That’s why I would love to see Fred in a debate with Romney, but also I think Fred is scared of that, which is why he won’t do it.
July 17th, 2007 at 3:08 pm
Does anyone here think Fred’s lack of official declaration has lessened the attacks on him? I’m guessing his political opponents have looked at the polls and decided, if not to fire it, then to start stocking lots of ammunition.
July 17th, 2007 at 3:37 pm
Tony, most people think that Fred is in the race and the rest never heard of him. Fred should not be running anyway. He has a stage 3 lymphoma.
July 17th, 2007 at 4:37 pm
“It’s hard to get that message out though when people aren’t focusing on what his message actually is. Instead, they focus on insignificant factors, that seems to be getting the most press time.”
-So true
David French does a good job analyzing the motives of Romney’s critics.
http://www.evangelicalsformitt.org/front_page/mitt_romney_and_his_enemies.php
If they had good issues they would focus on that, since they don’t, we get the crap we’ve seen.
July 17th, 2007 at 5:17 pm
KT: where would you get that idea from? Fred has gotten support from the South and that is what he will get if the VP slot becomes available to him. Gingrich would be a good VP selection as well and he is more equipped for the conservatives. Gingrich is pro-life and Fred is not. Also, Gingrich has a huge record of getting things done while Fred has a lackluster Senate career as we all know that Senators are not good candidates.
July 17th, 2007 at 5:32 pm
It will be 4 ways race; McCain has been stuck in between 10% and 15% for the past few weeks, regardless of his nose-diving popularity. True, his chance of raising above Fred or Rudy is low, very low. So, he may not win, but he could be playing the winning card; he could create a deal with one of the candidates, and get his voters behind that candidate. In any case, I think ACT is right in that there won’t be a clear winner. I believe we will end up at the convention unless the candidates make the deals with each other. They do it all the time in other countries. Perhaps some of them will do it (ticket creations or such).
July 17th, 2007 at 6:25 pm
What happens exactly if nobody wins a simple majority?
July 17th, 2007 at 8:43 pm
Tom - I agree with you about Fred and the South - - everybody would, and I would be “ok” with him as veep IF he maintains his supposed momentum.
Emtee - I have to honestly say I disagree with you about Romney being a confident, forceful orator. He is more like a college professor trying to be as cerebral as possible. I know that sounds goofy, but thats my take on him. I dont consider him to be a charismatic, trustworthy, reliable, energyzing, strong leader.