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Today’s Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll Results:
GOP (change from yesterday)
- Fred Thompson 24% (even)
- Rudy Giuliani 21% (-1)
- Mitt Romney 14% (even)
- John McCain 11% (-1)
- Mike Huckabee 4% (+1)
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 750-800 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
It will be interesting to watch and see if Huckabee slowly can close the gap with McCain. That would leave two options:
a. McCain has fallen into second tier
b. Huckabee is slowly climbing into the first tier
For choice B to happen, Huckabee would have to seriously improve his fundraising in Q3, but it’s possible.
Or…. McCain holds his position, and Huckabee keeps climbing, giving us five first tier candidates. Unlikely, but it’s possible.
July 18th, 2007 at 10:09 am
According to Rasmussen (the most historically accurate pollster), Romney is now a mere 7 percentage points behind Rudy. Only 7 points.
That, coupled with the “name ID†fact that the ENTIRE country knows Rudy, while less than 50% really know Romney, proves that Romney will easily make up 7% over the next 7 months.
Thompson will win SC, FLA, and the South. Romney will win the rest of the country after clear victories in IA, NH, NV, WY and MI.
Romney/Thompson 2008. It’s inevitable.
July 18th, 2007 at 10:12 am
…and these are the NATIONAL polls.
Once Romney makes up the mere 7 percentage points to catch Rudy in the NATIONAL polls, his PRIMARY leads will become insurmountable.
July 18th, 2007 at 10:13 am
I realize you folks aren’t the sharpest tools in the shed, but news alert: Ron Paul is running as well.
July 18th, 2007 at 10:14 am
Ron who?
July 18th, 2007 at 10:14 am
There will be no Thompson victory in Florida, rest assured we are
Rudy country.
Giuliani/Huckabee 08- the best ticket to keep the White House
July 18th, 2007 at 10:19 am
I really wish FDT would make a decision soon. In or out, one way or the other I really don’t care – I’d just like to see him make up his mind.
I think that it gets rather insulting for Republicans to see that an unannounced and relatively unorganized candidate leading in the polls. However, that is not quite as insulting for Republicans as the “Undecideds lead” headline a day or so back. C’mon Fred, announce already!
Also, I think we need some standards defined with what is “top tier.” Nobody seems to have any set definition. I really don’t see how there can be more than three top tier candidates. You were saying five? Well, the more top tier candidates there are, the less it means to be top tier.
I’d consider Fred top tier *when or if he enters*. Since he has not entered. My opinion of top tier should be:
Rudy,
Romney,
McCain, (till he drops below 10% or is surpassed by a Brownback or Huckabee)
If Fred does enter, the top tier should be:
Rudy,
Fred,
Romney, (Sorry McCain supporters)
Just my thoughts there..
July 18th, 2007 at 10:24 am
Fred better hurry…this trial balloon of his is slowly but surely losing air and falling toward Earth.
July 18th, 2007 at 11:04 am
That, coupled with the “name ID†fact that the ENTIRE country knows Rudy, while less than 50% really know Romney, proves that Romney will easily make up 7% over the next 7 months.
David, that doesn’t prove anything. That shows that he has room for growth, but it doesn’t prove anything.
July 18th, 2007 at 11:11 am
David, didn’t you hear, the Rudy camp sent out a press release explaining that National Polls become less and less accurate the closer you get to the election.
July 18th, 2007 at 11:12 am
Mike Huckabee gets 4% in a poll (which is within the margin of error), and he’s climbing into the first tier.
Ron Paul gets 3% in another poll (which also is within the margin of error), and it’s just a blip on the radar.
Uh-huh.
In all honesty, that number for the Huckster is a bit surprising to me. I originally thought that he would easily be able to beat Brownback in funds, but when that money failed to materialize I began to discard him. I think he’ll be out after Ames.
And Romney at 14% is dubious.
July 18th, 2007 at 11:16 am
Phil M.,
I didn’t say he was climbing into the first tier. I said it is possible he could, but unlikely. He’s risen three points in two days. That is within the margin of error, but is still interesting to watch. Tomarrow coudl be completely different, so we can’t really say. It’s just an observation.
July 18th, 2007 at 11:24 am
Is this the first time that Rudy and Romney are within the margin of error of each other in a national poll? That ought to stir the pot.
My usual caveats of polls (esp national polls) being a poor predictor all still apply…
July 18th, 2007 at 11:24 am
bjalder26,
The early primary states prove that once voters get to know Mitt Romney, they really really like him. Romney went from about 3% in 2006 in most of those early states to now gaining an entire 1/4 (25%) of the voting block in most earlyl states, including an entire 1/3 (33%) of the voting bloc in New Hampshire in this latest Rasmussen poll.
Here’s the trend:
0% (or negligible) name ID: Romney 3%
50% name ID: Romney 25%-33%
100% name ID: well, you get it, but a linear trend shows about 50%-67%
With that trend in mind, Rudy’s 7% NATIONAL lead over Romney will be eviscerated over the next 7 months. Proved.
July 18th, 2007 at 11:27 am
David,
I generally agree with you, that Romney will gain as his name ID approaches Rudy’s. (Modelling a linear trend makes me twitchy of course.
)
Another indicator is how Romney is received by viewers of debates. In a setting where Romney and Rudy have equal exposure, viewers shift towards Romney.
July 18th, 2007 at 11:35 am
Murphy…dittos to that.
Plus…add this:
The entire populus of Republican Primary Voters know Rudy generally.
However, to this date, less than 50% of Republican Primary Voters know that Rudy is staunchly pro-choice. Once that 50% awareness among Republican Primary Voters reaches 100% awareness of Rudy’s pro-choice stance, well, you get it.
Conclusion:
At this point, it’s true that Rudy may have a floor of about 20%, but Rudy’s ceiling in the Republican Primary is 25%.
As demonstrated, Romney’s ceiling is 50-67%
(I generally agree with you, Murph, that Romney will not reach this linear ceiling, but even so, a ceiling is a ceiling.)
July 18th, 2007 at 11:44 am
what about a Romney/Demint ticket?
Anyway, if all of the top 4 candidates staw in the race, I think Romney will take Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wyoming, and Nevada, While Rudy will capture Florida, and Thompson may pick up S.C. – though I think that state is still a toss up.
That gives Romney the top spot heading into Super Tuesday, with the only danger being that he may not capture the last two early primary states, but, like I said, it is too early to guess at those things. Ideally, we would have a known winner before Super Tuesday.
July 18th, 2007 at 11:48 am
Is this the first time that Rudy and Romney are within the margin of error of each other in a national poll?
Uhh, they’re seven points apart, that’s not in the margin of error.
With that trend in mind, Rudy’s 7% NATIONAL lead over Romney will be eviscerated over the next 7 months. Proved.
That tends to overlook multiple factors,including region where support varies, and can not be proved at this point.
July 18th, 2007 at 11:54 am
In fairness, Tommy Oliver:
21% – 4% = 17% for Giuliani
14% + 4% = 18% for Romney
So Romney is, in fact, within the margin of error.
(However, I hate hate hate dealing in “margin of error” terms, because an equally fair analysis of “margin of error” gives Giuliani 25% and Romney 10%. Let’s just stick to the 21% and 14% numbers for now, which I have shown above is positioning Romney very well 6 months out from election day.)
July 18th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
Good point. I guess he is within the margin of error in the best case scenario for him. However, does anyone want to figure out the percentages of likelihood for Rudy to be at the -4 percent and Mitt to be at the +4? PProbably unlikely, but I concede, that does make him within a margin of error.
July 18th, 2007 at 12:17 pm
Tommy,
I’m not trying to argue that Romney is actually at 18% and Rudy is actually at 17%. I’m just observing that the windows of uncertainty surrounding their poll numbers are beginning to overlap.
July 18th, 2007 at 12:23 pm
We could play with the numbers all day. For instance I could say that
Mike Huckabee is ahead of Romney by 4% (11% to 7%) or McCain beats
Thompson by one (18% to 17%) the point is you can manipulate numbers
any way you want but in the end it all boils down to one set of numbers
; who has the most delegates heading to St.Paul.
July 18th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
or — or — or –
C) Huckabee remains at no higher than 2-5% and stays in the second tier, while McCain also holds steady, making the race exactly the same as it’s always been.
That’s really boring, but that’s what’s happening.
David — “50% name ID: Romney 25%-33%”
Romney does *NOT* have THIRTY-THREE PERCENT at FIFTY PERCENT NAME ID!
In New Hampshire, where he has virtually full name ID now, his ceiling seems to be roughly 30%. That’s not a good thing for him.
I can’t believe what shoddy analysis goes on within these comment boards.
July 18th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
Jonathan, you’re using a 7 point MOE, not a 4 point MOE.
But I have always agreed with your sentiment regarding the uselessness of declaring victory based on polls 6 months out.
July 18th, 2007 at 12:32 pm
TLGuy,
Do you have any cross tab information on how well the people being polled know the candidates and what they each stand for?
July 18th, 2007 at 12:34 pm
What makes you think Romney has hit a ceiling in NH? It seems to me that he is still rising in NH.
July 18th, 2007 at 12:37 pm
Pollster shows an upward trend for Romney in Iowa, NH, Florida, and nationally.
July 18th, 2007 at 12:45 pm
I believe the most pivotal state in the primaries this year is going to be South Carolina. Whoever emerges in South Carolina will probably be the anti-Mitt, if it’s Giuliani, then I think Giuliani has a chance though his socially liberal stances are going to be a tough sell. If it’s Thompson, Romney can start celebrating, because I don’t think Thompson will win a single state outside of the South nor will he be able to take the South outright.
July 18th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
The most important Southern primary is FL. we are the biggest, most
diverse state in the South and S.C. will be to FL what DE is for NH;
not worth too much.
July 18th, 2007 at 1:01 pm
Jonathan, the neck turns the head.
July 18th, 2007 at 1:01 pm
Talk of Romney hitting a ceiling in New Hampshire is false, he is now polls in the thirtys and continuing to climb. However, lets assume that Romney has, indeed, hit a ceiling in that states, it does not necessairily reflect any kind of naitonal ceiling, remember, NH went for Kerry, indicating a liberal tilt. As a Conservative, Romney’s ceiling in liberal states is going to be lower than his ceiling in Conservative states.
As for Florida, I don’t know. FL is more diverse, but that means that it is not a good indication of the way the rest of the South would go. The majority of Southern Republicans are White, Christian Evangelical, Conservatives. With its more diverse population, Florida is not exactly a good indication of how a state like GA would go. South Carolina on the other hand, is a fairly good, sterotyplical, Southern State. In addition, Florida will have to split headlines with Michigan the day after the Primary. If Mitt wins Michigan, but pulls a few delagates out of FL, it leads to the headline: “Romney wins in Michigan, Florida Results Mixed.” South Carolina on the other hand, is alone on their primary day.
July 18th, 2007 at 1:04 pm
TLG,
I was making an observation, only that Huckabee looks to be on an upswing. I also said that it is unlikely, but an interesting possibility.
bjalder,
You show your lack of political knowledge about the south. It’s laughable. I suggest for anyone to understand the political culture of the south to visit http://www.insideradvantage.com , and not just their polls, but all of their sites.
July 18th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
#27 – I predict Thompson takes SC. Evangelical influenced GOP in SC will not vote for a Mormon or a perceived liberal. Rudy takes FL. Thompson takes majority of South, however I think Rudy or even Romney might steal another Southern state. After that Rudy and Mitt split North, East and West. (Although I predict that Mitt takes more in the West). In the end I believe decision will be made close to convention time between Rudy and Mitt. (The two I believe most capable of running the country. I prefer to pick the most CAPABLE than try to pick the best chance to KEEP the White House.) Let’s strive for excellence and raise the bar than simply try to just be above the bar and settle for mediocrity.
July 18th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
Florida is not so much an indicator of the South as it is an indicator
of the whole nation. We are more like the diversity of America than every
other state in the South.
Matt: do you really think Michigan will get top billing over FL? that is
like on Feb 5th “Romney sweeps Utah” wiht the subline “Rudy wins most in
California”. Since we are so much bigger than MI we’ll get top billing no
matter what, just because of the size of our state.
July 18th, 2007 at 1:22 pm
I think that Thompson could take S.C., but it is far from a lock. If Romney wins every early state but Florida, particularly if he gets a decent percentage in FL, I think momentum could bring him a win in S.C. If all people in the South wanted was a Conservative Southern Christian, Huckabee or Brownback would be sitting pretty right now. Heck, Huckabee is a minister.
There is also the unknown of Thompson. Without getting into a lot of detail, he is untested, and there are dark spots on his record. Can anyone confirm that Thompson is pro-life during the first trimester on the state level? If the fight becomes a pro-choice Christian vs. a pro-life Mormon, then Romney has an even better chance.
July 18th, 2007 at 1:30 pm
and Jonathan, earlier states than Florida will tell us how the candidates are doing in other regions of the country. By the time we get to Florida the only unknown will be the South – which is why S.C. will be more important.
I think Michigan might get more focus than you think. In my opinon, and as I have said on my blog, I think the upper midwest (most notably states touching the Great Lakes – MN,WI,IL,OH,MI,PA) are going to play a big part in this election. Considering that the election is probably going to be Hillary v. _____ , traditional GOP areas seem unlikely to change hands. On the other hand, the declining influence of labor, as well as other factors, put the GLR into play.
July 18th, 2007 at 1:33 pm
The crystal ball in the race is getting very clouded. We do have the
serious possibility of a multi-ballot convention if no one candidate
blows away the competition. Here are the scenario for a divided
convention:
1.) Romney barely wins both IA and NH. Thompson takes SC Rudy takes FL
and every one wins big on Super duper Tuesday (Rudy takes CA and NY
Thomspon rolls up big margins in the South and Mitt does well out West.)
July 18th, 2007 at 2:09 pm
Dont underestimate the ability of a good speaker at a straw poll…i’ll admit
that this is what team huckabee is playing for…ames…so lets see it lay out…i think hes got a real chance
July 18th, 2007 at 2:39 pm
good news for romney and thompson. bad news for guiliani and mccain.
thompson is annoying.
July 18th, 2007 at 2:43 pm
I think Romney wins Ames and the IA caucus each by a healthy margin (10% or more). That will be huge for him. I think that he will likewise carry NH by a healthy margin. And I think Romney will open his pocketbook like nobody has ever seen after Jan 1 to spend huge $$$ nationally. I think you will see his numbers then nationally go from 11-14%, to about 26%-30% as super Tuesday approaches. I think he’ll win the money primary, will carry IA, NH, NV, and WY by healthy margins, and will win MI by a smaller margin. Rudy, on the other hand, will bank on bigger states (CA, NY, NJ, FL, IL, etc) from here till 2/5, yet will find himself in the fight of his life once Mitt has some wins and really starts to spend his fortune.
July 18th, 2007 at 3:27 pm
Husky,
Good point on the post-Jan1 spending. To keep it all in perspective, Romney has thus far spent just under $9 million, probably about a third of the interest he earns on his fortune annually.
July 18th, 2007 at 3:31 pm
Good analysis Husky, except 1 thing: Romney is already at 11-14%. By January, Romney will be somewhere between 20-35% nationally.
I agree that if Romney wins IA and NH, he will open his pocketbook, perhaps even to the tune of 50 million in January 2008 alone to trumpet such victories in South Carolina, Florida, and Nationally. This could be the “X-Factor” that carries Romney to as-now unlikely victories in South Carolina and Florida.
July 18th, 2007 at 3:39 pm
To clarify, Romney’s national numbers will be 25-30% by Christmas, and after victories in IA, NH, NV, WY, and MI, Romney’s national numbers will skyrocket up to about 50% nationally.
July 18th, 2007 at 3:50 pm
Huckabee is still on the rise and with no money, somebody must like him and his message is getting
to them. One reason he doesn’t have as much money is that he is not a sitting Gov. Sen. or Congressman and those who are will be able to get money just because they are. Whether they were running for president or they asked for money because they wanted to have an ice cream social. It is amazing what you can raise when people wnat you to vote on something they are paid to represent.
July 18th, 2007 at 4:04 pm
James Boulder,
Neither Rudy or Romney are current office holders, and they’re running circles around McCain and Brownback.
July 18th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
This is a one-day poll right?
The trends in these polls aren’t meaningful from day-to-day.
It’s mostly statistical noise.
The proper way to analyze them is to look at moving averages of the Rasmussen polls (average the last few days of polling).
July 18th, 2007 at 4:41 pm
It is a one day poll, but the larger trend validates it.
1.
Romney seems to gain a percentage point per month.
Rudy seems to lose a percentage point per month.
2.
Thompson’s numbers are impressive, but largely irrelevant until the debates.
McCain is on an obvious slide.
3.
If Romney continues to gain a percentage point per month, and if Rudy continues to lose a percentage point per month, Romney will tie Rudy by Thanksgiving and overtake Rudy by Christmas.
4.
As for Fred Thompson, sure, Fred is the hare right now, while Romney is the tortise. But we all know the truth that in the end the tortise beats the hare.
Romney/Thompson 2008!
July 18th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
“It’s mostly statistical noise.”
True, that’s why I like to watch pollster.com
http://www.pollster.com/08presidentialprimary.php
July 18th, 2007 at 5:09 pm
I’m a supporter (financial and otherwise) of Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign, but I don’t think there’s any way he will spend $50 million of his own money in an effort to win California, Florida or other expensive states. He’s too savvy to drop that much cash on his campaign. Instead, Mitt is banking on wins in Iowa and New Hampshire to catapult him to first or second in the big states as people start to pay attention to him and his oustanding qualifications to be president.
Romney/DeMint is a real possibility. DeMint is a Romney supporter and fully qualified to be the vice president. But, I hope the GOP is bold in 2008. For VP, Sarah Palin or J.C. Watts should be possibilities.
July 18th, 2007 at 5:59 pm
Marksal lol, about the 50 mil, I was speaking mostly in hyperbole. The point was he’ll spend enough to highlight his wins in IA and NH (of course, the national press will do much of that for him).
Congrats on being a Romney supporter. He really is our best candidate.
July 18th, 2007 at 6:44 pm
I didn’t say he was climbing into the first tier. I said it is possible he could, but unlikely. He’s risen three points in two days. That is within the margin of error, but is still interesting to watch. Tomarrow coudl be completely different, so we can’t really say. It’s just an observation.
3 points in two days from a candidate that hasn’t done anything to bring attention to himself tells me that most of the movement is statistical noise.
July 18th, 2007 at 7:07 pm
First tier:
Rudy, Romney, FDT (if he runs)
Second tier:
John McCain
Third Tier:
Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee
Fourth Tier:
Ron Paul
Fifth Tier:
Hunter, TThompson, Tancredo.
July 18th, 2007 at 9:01 pm
I cannot believe you’d put Brownback above Paul. They are at the very least tied. Paul leads Brownback in cash on hand and total funds raised and they both seem to have hit a ceiling of three percent. Paul has crossover appeal to independents and Democrats who could vote for him in New Hampshire, and has a huge ‘net following. Brownback is an ordinary second-tier candidate.
First tier:
Rudy, Romney, Thompson
Second tier:
John McCain
Third Tier:
Huckabee, Brownback, Paul
pfffft:
Tommy Thompson, Hunter, Tancredo