GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
“If I don’t win, I’ll be shocked.”
-Tommy Thompson, on his chances at the Ames Straw Poll in 16 days.
Tommy has said if he doesn’t place in the top two in Ames, he will drop out of the race. The race for second place in Ames is going to be the most anticipated story of August. Will Thompson, who has camped out in Iowa since last December organizing a ground game, be able to pull off a second-place finish? Will Brownback, who is courting conservatives hard in the state, be able to overcome him? Will Huckabee, who has said if he isn’t in the top tier of candidates after Ames that he would drop out of the race as well, be able to hold enough townhall meetings and display enough of his charisma to overcome his lack of organization? Will Ron Paul finally be able to funnel internet support into real votes? And where will Rudy and McCain fall when all is said and done?
July 26th, 2007 at 11:11 am
It is a bit pathetic really - that the biggest competition at Ames is going to be between the bottom feeders who have virtually no hope of winning the nomination. What should be a contest beetween the frontrunners to see who has the best chance in Iowa is now basically meaningless. As a Romney supporter, its is worse, becuase Ames could have been the thing that Rocketed Romney into the top two.
July 26th, 2007 at 11:13 am
I think 2 or 3 guys will drop out after Ames… hopefully more.
July 26th, 2007 at 11:21 am
MattC:
You ask some good questions there. Personally, I think Brownback will come in 2nd at Ames Aug 8th. I’m most interested to see how Ron Paul performs. He gets a lot of support from non-Republicans who will not be allowed to participate at Ames. Even if Paul under performs, I can see him sticking around till our nominee is decided - then possibly running again as a Libertarian at that point.
ACT Blog:
“….could have been the thing that Rocketed Romney into the top two.”
I’m expecting Romney to get a decent jump after he takes both IA & NH. McCain will be done after NH. IA Ames poll will eliminate most the third tier candidates with the exception of maybe Paul. I can easily see Romney the front runner or in a close 2nd but certainly within the top two at that point.
July 26th, 2007 at 11:22 am
Maybe, butI can’t predict who - maybe Brownback if he does poorly.
Expanding on my last post, Ames no long has any meaning. Consider the two possible outcomes:
1) Romney wins - ok, thats expected. Some positive press for Romney, but nothing big. With no other frontrunners making any dedicated effort, Romney probably should win.
2) Romney comes in second or third - While maybe a little supprising, its not anything that would reshape the race. If Romney does not win, all he has to do is point out that he cut the amount he was going to spend on the Straw Poll. Just two weeks ago, Romney lowered the number of supporters he was going to bus in for the event.
July 26th, 2007 at 11:25 am
Here is my prediction:
1) Romney
2) Brownback
3) Paul
4) Thompson
5) Huckabee
I won’t predict past that.
July 26th, 2007 at 11:27 am
just curious the title said “delusions of grandeur or firing up supporters”
What supporters?
July 26th, 2007 at 11:28 am
I predict
1. Romney
2. Paul
3. Brownback
4. Huckabee
5. Thompson
July 26th, 2007 at 11:29 am
I’m going with:
1.) Romney
2.) Brownback
3.) Huckabee
4.) Paul
5.) Thompson
July 26th, 2007 at 11:32 am
ACT Blog:
I agree that McCain & Rudy both pulling out of Ames certainly has devalued the poll. It was a shrewd political move on their behalf. Romney now finds himself in a position to lose more by not coming in first than gaining by winning. However, Romney will still win Ames hands down.
All this makes NH more important. Rudy can’t run from Romney there. McCain’s back is against the wall, he is toast after not placing at least 2nd at NH. I think Romney will also take NH and be either the front runner undisputed or a close second.
July 26th, 2007 at 11:36 am
Funny how some people think Romney is scaling back on Ames out of fear for Brownback when the truth is Mitt is just walking, maybe dancing, to the end zone because no one will catch him.
I’ll agree with Nusrat’s prediction but I would love to see Huckabee get past Brownback.
July 26th, 2007 at 11:41 am
If Brownback beats Romney in the straw poll you can kiss Romney goodbye….
Romney called our house 2 times yesterday asking us if we wanted tickets….
July 26th, 2007 at 11:42 am
Randy… Mitt is falling in Iowa…. Just wait and see
July 26th, 2007 at 11:43 am
Iowa,
Romney himself, or Romney’s guys?
July 26th, 2007 at 11:56 am
1.) Sam 2.) Romney 3.) Not Ron Paul
July 26th, 2007 at 12:04 pm
rofl this is absurd. I can’t believe some of you actually think Romney will place second at Ames. Get your head out of the sand.
July 26th, 2007 at 12:12 pm
While I expect Romney to win, I just think he picked a bad time to scale back his plans.
July 26th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
Iowa:
“Romney called our house 2 times yesterday asking us if we wanted tickets….”
That is exactly why Romney will win. How many times were you called yesterday by the other candidates?
The man is a work horse. I like to hear that his team is at it full-board.
July 26th, 2007 at 12:23 pm
#4 ACT Blog
Interesting. I said basically the same thing about Romney scaling back at Ames. Romney Lowers Expectations.
If he wins, he can say it’s because he’s a great candidate. If he doesn’t do that well, he can say he didn’t try that hard and that he “scaled back.”
July 26th, 2007 at 12:28 pm
“I just think he picked a bad time to scale back his plans.”
Actually, I would have liked to see him scale back his plans there in IA earlier. Since Rudy & McCain essentially handed him an early victory, Romney is now able to move money, staff, and other resources to other states to compete against them there. That is exactly what is happening.
Romney is in it just enough to win and win decisively. I’m sure if he felt otherwise, he would not have scaled back.
July 26th, 2007 at 12:47 pm
Now, remember this isn’t the Iowa caucuses, folks. I think Thompson is just making fun of himself. When is the Ames? Here is my prediction:
………
Romney
Rudy
Thompson(F)
McCain
………
July 26th, 2007 at 12:48 pm
This morning, Romney said “I expect to finish in the top two or three� in Ames.
It sounds like Romney & Co. are trying to drive down the street estimate in order to preserve positive press upon the release of the straw poll’s results.
If Mitt is being brutally honest, and he finishes third, it will be interesting to see if the media places Romney’s rapid descent in Iowa on the front pages or in the obituaries.
As one who regards all straw polls as irrelevant farces that should be consigned to the trash heap of political history, I hope the contrivance known as Ames is the death that is reported and not Romney’s presidential aspirations, which are wholly contingent upon victory in Iowa come January.
July 26th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
Any thought that Rudy or FDT will finish in the top 2 or 3? For one, I expect that Mitt will win and win big at Ames, although I get that he is downplaying expectations.
July 26th, 2007 at 12:59 pm
As one who regards all straw polls as irrelevant farces that should be consigned to the trash heap of political history,
Have you looked at the history of the Ames straw poll, and how it is a predictor of Iowa finishes?
July 26th, 2007 at 1:01 pm
KT:
Rudy’s name is not even on the ballot.
Aron,
Do you really think that Mitt will come in 3rd? His quote there is nothing more than the typical lowering of expectations prior to any event. They all do that. If he does place third, the rapid decent that you described will take place - no doubt.
July 26th, 2007 at 1:06 pm
Something Billy Valentine and other Switchback supporters should consider.
Romney has led virtually every poll in IA since May. Brownback’s best finish was 5th in a poll last month, 19% behind Romney. He had been at 1%-3%, until he climb all the way up to 6% in a poll last month. I think they are kidding if he thinks he will be able to overcome that deficit. BTW, I think Rudy or FDT could get a very distant 2nd, and all others register so low that they all drop out (except Paul).
July 26th, 2007 at 1:12 pm
Husky,
Well i am a Brownback supporter and you cant just go by poll numbers. For example Sen. Brownback finished 1st in a Black Hawk County Straw poll earlier this month which is the fourth largest county in the state. And late last month Brownback finished 2nd in the Linn county straw poll which is the second largest county in the state. Sen.Brownback has one of the best organizations in Iowa and he has enourmous grassroots support, something you all will see come Aug.11th.
Brownback 08′
Bryan
July 26th, 2007 at 1:13 pm
I thought rudy’s name would still be there, or that candidates could be written-in…??
July 26th, 2007 at 1:20 pm
1st in one strawpoll, and 2nd in another doesnt equal a win. “One of the best organizations” isnt “the best IA organization” as Romney has (as its reported by independant IA media). Switchback’s mudslinging at Romney wont have much affect either, coming from someone who is soft on Iraq and immigration.
July 26th, 2007 at 1:20 pm
cwpete,
You are incorrect. Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Fred Thompson will all be on the ballot in Ames.
As I said above, it sounds to me like Romney is trying to lower the heightened expectations he will struggle to meet. If he can successfully rewrite the narrative for the press, mitigating his anticipated less-than-impressive finish, he’ll be fine. However, if the media smells blood in the water, even a close 2nd place finish could cause the sharks to pounce on Romney, highlighting ‘the wasted money, time and commmitment dedicated to his failed Iowa or bust strategy.’
July 26th, 2007 at 1:21 pm
These are all the names that will appear on the Ames Straw Poll Ballot folks,
Speaking Order (chosen randomly)
Mitt Romney
Tom Tancredo
John Cox
Ron Paul
Mike Huckabee
Duncan Hunter
Tommy Thompson
Sam Brownback
Straw Poll Ballot (alphabetical order)
Brownback
Cox
Giuliani
Huckabee
Hunter
McCain
Paul
Romney
Tancredo
Fred Thompson
Tommy Thompson
July 26th, 2007 at 1:23 pm
If the bottom of the pack perceives a weakening of Fred’s support, they should and will come out swinging. Maybe one of them can take his place.
July 26th, 2007 at 1:26 pm
Thanks for the correction guys..
July 26th, 2007 at 1:27 pm
cwpete,
It was my understanding that the only qualification for voting at Ames (aside from a lot of patience) is a valid IA driver’s license.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think non-Republicans are allowed to vote for Ron Paul.
July 26th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
Aron, I’m only going to assume that you are not used to campaigns. It is natural for candidates to work to lower expectations, even when they anticipate a big win. The logic is simple, it allows a win to seem bigger and a loss to seem smaller. It is the same thing that candidates do at fundraising deadlines.
July 26th, 2007 at 1:34 pm
Husky,
I’m not debating you that Romney has a good organization in Iowa as well, he certainly does, he has more paid staff in Iowa then any other candidate, and Brownback is in second in that category. But when Romney attacks Brownback on immigration, then Brownback has all the right to attack Romney on his one million flip flops that he has done in his life time. I think the voters of Iowa have a tough decision to make, but when you look at the facts and the records, they will make the right decision in the end to support Sen. Brownback because he has been the leader in Congress and in the Senate on matters important to social conservatives in Iowa, such as strong family values, and strong pro life issues such as abortion and stem cell research. And that is why Kim Lehman, the president of Iowa right to life, and Norma McCorvey a.k.a Roe in Roe v Wade has endorsed his presidency.
Bryan
July 26th, 2007 at 1:37 pm
Bryan, Psycheout, bobl,
Out of curiosity, who’s your #2 candidate?
July 26th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
You know, I have big problems who try to use the “flip flop” arguement against Romney. Its one thing to use it against a person like John Kerry - who changed positions on the same issue so many times that we stil ldon’t know where he stands.
Romney on the other hand, has only changed positions on issues once, as part of a general shift to the right. If you are going to hold that against him, than what you are really attacking Romney for is becoming a Conservative.
July 26th, 2007 at 1:45 pm
the flip-flop issue re: Romney is old news…. dont fret about it. The damage has already been done.
July 26th, 2007 at 1:55 pm
ACT #37
Exactly right. Only a Mitt-hater would continue to push the line that Mitt goes back and forth. He doesn’t go from right to left on anything and people who don’t bother to do their homework still call him a flip-flopper.
July 26th, 2007 at 2:01 pm
Out of curiosity, what are the plans for R4′08 once we have a nominee? Are you guys planning on becoming a pro-Republican nominee site, or just a general 2008-related news site?
July 26th, 2007 at 2:07 pm
Randy,
You are correct. A flip-flopper and an opportunist are not synonymous.
July 26th, 2007 at 2:11 pm
If Mitt Doesn’t win, it will be a huge letdown considering how much he spent on Iowa. It will say that even when buying votes, the man can’t win - and that’s not a good sign.
Now we have Fred Thompson saying that “If I don’t win I’ll be shocked.” Well, that means that one of these two will have a bad day at Ames.
Ron Paul has spent no money on the state and has barely stepped foot in there. How anyone could think he could place in top 5 is beyond me. 6th or better would be an absolute coup!
July 26th, 2007 at 2:14 pm
Zac,
It was Tommy Thompson, not Fred who said he’ll be “shocked” if he doesn’t win Ames.
July 26th, 2007 at 2:16 pm
Okay Aron, if you don’t think Mitt’s conversion is genuine thats fine. I think it is. My problem is people’s misuse of the word “flip-flop”.
July 26th, 2007 at 2:17 pm
Nusrat Says: “Have you looked at the history of the Ames straw poll, and how it is a predictor of Iowa finishes?”
I’ve looked for a history on Ames, but I haven’t been able to find one. Does anybody know how well Ames has done at predicting an Iowa victory?
July 26th, 2007 at 2:21 pm
bjalder26, I think Ames has a perfect record in predicting who wins Iowa.
July 26th, 2007 at 2:27 pm
Aron,
Thanks for the clarification. I guess I misread it because Fred might actually have a shot - albeit a long one.
To answer the original post question:
Delusions of Grandeur.
July 26th, 2007 at 2:33 pm
bjalder26,
I believe since 1979, the top two finishers in the Ames Straw Poll were the top two finishers in the Iowa caucases, so it is a very important event to Iowans.
Bryan
July 26th, 2007 at 2:38 pm
Ames used to be a good indicator - going back to Carter. But, the problem is, this election is unlike any other. It used to be that Ames fell at the start of the campaign season, when people were just entering the race and starting to really campaign. Now, it falls in the middle of the race, when candidates have been campaigning for months and already have particular strategys they are playing with.
July 26th, 2007 at 3:14 pm
Out of curiosity, who’s your #2 candidate?
—-
McCain
July 26th, 2007 at 3:33 pm
Out of curiosity, who’s your #2 candidate?
–
Dont really have one but if i had to choose i would say Fred Thompson
July 26th, 2007 at 7:01 pm
I see no reason at this point in time to have a #2 candidate. If forced to name one, it would be Brownback.
See also B4B Reader Top Three.
July 26th, 2007 at 7:06 pm
bobl, Bryan, thanks for humoring me.
Psycheout, the reason to have a #2 candidate is in case your #1 candidate poops out. I could understand why you wouldn’t want to name a #2 candidate, especially since Brownback’s campaign strategy is scorched earth when it comes to any other campaign. But I really have a hard time believing that it has never occured to you that Brownback might not win.
July 26th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
Whats interesting in the expectations race is that Mitt is lowering them, while Rudy/McCain/FDT have already lowered them. Meanwhile Bwornback, Huckabee, TT & Paulites are all raising expectations.
To have a chance, Brownback has to place 2nd (Iowa is so key to him) and TT & Huckabee have to place 3rd (I can’t see either of them getting 2nd). So one, possibly two if Paul does well, will be going home as a former candidate.
July 26th, 2007 at 8:30 pm
Re #46, 48, 49:
The Iowa GOP has the results for the last three Ames Straw Polls and the corresponding caucuses in their straw poll information at http://www.iowagop.net/downloads/Straw.Poll.Info.pdf
Here’s what I found:
1999 Ames:
1. G.W. Bush, 2. S. Forbes
2000 caucus:
1. G.W. Bush, 2. S. Forbes
Okay, that time they matched.
1995 Ames:
1. B. Dole and P. Gramm (exactly tied)
1996 caucus:
1. B. Dole, 2. P. Buchanan (Gramm was 5th)
Despite sharing the win at Ames, Gramm was unable to maintain his support at the caucus.
1987 Ames:
1. P. Robertson, 2. B. Dole
1988 caucus:
1. B. Dole, 2. P. Robertson
In this case, the top 2 were the same, but in the wrong order, and George Bush, who placed third both at Ames and in the caucus, went on to win the nomination and presidency.
I have heard that there was a straw poll at Ames in 1979 which George Bush won, but I have been unable to find much information about it. It is mentioned in Wikipedia, but that doesn’t prove much. Looking at the Chicago Tribune historical archive, the Ames straw poll was apparently never mentioned in the newspaper that year. Perhaps it was just a minor local event at the time.
Finally, Ames had nothing to do with predicting Jimmy Carter’s election. The Ames straw poll is a purely Republican event and didn’t exist when Carter was elected president. Carter did get a big benefit in 1976 from his success at the Iowa caucus, where he beat the other named candidates albeit finishing behind “Uncommitted.”
July 26th, 2007 at 11:43 pm
Brownback supporters don’t have a number 2 candidate. If Brownback doesn’t win at Ames, they’re all going to drink Kool Aid.