And they are:
1. Romney (Previously 1st)
2. Giuliani (Tied for 2nd)
3. Thompson (Tied for 2nd)
4. McCain (4th)
5. Huckabee (5th)
Read below the fold for their reasons:
1. Mitt Romney: The former Massachusetts governor holds onto his top spot on The Line for a second month thanks to two main factors — his continued strong polling numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire and his demonstrated willingness to use his personal wealth to help fund his campaign. If Romney does give $40 million to $60 million (or even more) to his campaign, it gives him a major leg up over his opponents, who will have to continue to scrounge for $2,300 checks all the way through the Iowa caucuses. Hurdles remain for Romney, however. He is far weaker in South Carolina than in either New Hampshire or Iowa, a fact that could provide a nice opening for former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.). And then there’s the Mormon question. Romney’s campaign is contemplating whether he should give some sort of speech in which the governor would further explain his religion and how he sees it influencing a Romney administration. He will not, they insist, ever engage in a discussion of the specific tenets of the faith. But will that be enough for GOP voters? (Previous ranking: 1)
2. Rudy Giuliani: The former New York City Mayor put together the best month of any of the top-tier candidate. He raised the most money (subtracting Romney’s personal donation) in the second quarter of 2007 and ended June with the most money in the bank. His campaign has also picked up its organizational pace — especially in Iowa, where Giuliani has been signing on supporters at a rapid rate lately. The main challenge for Giuliani over the coming months is to use the national good will he built up in the immediate wake of the Sept. 11 attacks to highlight his conservative positions on taxes and crime. That effort will be complicated by his rivals, who will try to make sure Republican voters in the early states are well aware of Giuliani’s positions on abortion, gay rights and gun control. (Previous ranking: Tied for 2nd)
3. Fred Thompson: In a week dominated by news and speculation about staff changes in Thompson’s organization, it’s important to keep the big picture in mind. Without yet officially declaring that he is in the race, Thompson is pulling double digits in every national and state poll we have seen. That’s a powerful testament to the desire within the Republican Party — especially among social conservatives — for an alternative to the current field. Growing pains are nothing new within a presidential campaign, and it’s better to get the kinks worked out before anyone is officially keeping score. The danger for Thompson is if the staff departures speak to a larger structural problem within the campaign that continues to dog him even after he is a candidate. As we saw with John McCain’s campaign collapse, not having a single person in charge can lead to devastating consequences. (Previous ranking: Tied for 2nd)
4. John McCain: Wow! We knew there were problems in McCain’s campaign, but we never suspected that in the month since the last edition of the presidential Line that nearly all of his senior staff — including longtime associate John Weaver — would quit. Or that McCain would end June with less money in the bank than Rep. Ron Paul. Yeeesh. With less than 200 days until the Iowa caucuses, McCain is now in the process of starting over. As a result, the nature of McCain’s campaign has totally changed: No longer the frontrunner, he must now campaign as an insurgent. Insurgency always seemed to suit McCain better, but can he find enough money and skilled staffers in the early states to make a serious run at the nomination? It’s hard — but not impossible — to see. (Previous ranking: 4)
5. Mike Huckabee: The upcoming Ames Straw poll is a do or die moment for Huckabee. If he is able to come in second (behind Romney), it will be a sign that despite his stunning lack of money, Huckabee does have some level of organizational heft. A second-place showing might also shake loose some of the money that a number of GOP donors are currently sitting on as they wait to see what the field will ultimately look like. Thompson’s campaign-in-waiting complicates that equation for Huckabee, but there should be enough money to go around. An increase in fundraising is absolutely essential for Huckabee to have any chance at winning the nomination. One side note: It’s too bad for Huckabee that there isn’t a GOP debate every week. (Previous ranking: 5)
July 27th, 2007 at 1:10 pm
This is good news for Romney, although I think the argument can be made that Rudy belongs at number 1. I get that since he has had a good month, and is even showing that he cares about competing in IA. I do think that FDT belongs at 3rd with the kind of week he has had in his psuedo campaign. He isnt raising the money that we heard of, and has taken a beating from story after story. I also think his campaign staff issues/wife running the show will hurt in the long run.
July 27th, 2007 at 1:15 pm
This weeks leaked story that Romney wouldnt run out of money was smart I think. It puts to rest the thought that he was spending too much to have anything left come Jan. To think that he will fundraise and spend like crazy the rest of this year, then write a $40 million dollar check in Jan to compete on the big stage when it counts. I know that others will cry that nobody likes a self funded candidate (which he isnt since he is still tops in $$$ raised YTD), but I dont see that hurting him. Someone like FDT who isnt campaigning or working nearly as hard as Rudy and Romney will be more hurt that Mitt, who will do whatever it takes to win.
July 27th, 2007 at 1:54 pm
Kavon, hope you don’t mind my posting of various news stories on posts like this.
You can delete this and any other posts like this, i just thought you might want to post this to get some comments. I’m interested in what people on the blog think of this one:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/27/AR2007072700283_pf.html
July 27th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
I think I’d have Romney tied with Giuliani for first. Giuliani still holds leads in the poll averages for national polling, Florida, and South Carolina. He also led in fundraising for the second quarter and has much, much more cash on hand than Romney when you factor in debts. He also has not had to fund himself at all. His organization is finally picking up, and he’s had some good news lately — his judicial team, for example. Thompson leads in a few national polls, but always within the margin of error with Giuliani, and leads in no early primary state polls.
So, yeah, gotta disagree with WaPo here, although I agree that Romney should also be first — obviously, for his IA and NH polling numbers…
July 27th, 2007 at 2:07 pm
I’d probably go
1. Romney
1. Giuliani
3. Thompson
4. McCain
5. Paul
6. Huckabee
7. Brownback
8. T. Thompson
9. Hunter
10. Tancredo
The last three are basically interchangeable.
July 27th, 2007 at 2:11 pm
Yeah. I’d agree with Nusrat. I think Brownback’s status may be overrated a little in general, though. Tommy Thompson and Mike Huckabee have each reached 7% in some Iowa polls — Brownback hasn’t. Brownback’s raised more money, though. But then, Tancredo has also raised a decent amount of money for someone in the third tier. I think Hunter should be #10, there.
July 27th, 2007 at 2:22 pm
TLG, in regards to Brownback and T Thompson…
But T. Thompson’s so…boring! He adds absolutely nothing new to the debate. At least Brownback can say, “I’m the most far-right on abortion and life issues.” Plus, Brownback is pretty decent with small groups of voters. I have yet to hear anything Tommy Thompson’s doing that warrants anything higher than 8th, and I’d be tempted to put him at 10 if he weren’t doing OK in Iowa.
July 27th, 2007 at 2:35 pm
I’m a Romney guy, but can you really make the case that Romney is ahead of Giuliani? I like Romney’s lead in Iowa and NH but if I had to choose I’d rather he had a solid national lead and the chance to bring up his Iowa and NH numbers via advertising, which is where Giuliani is.
I would have said a three-way tie for 1st, with maybe Giuliani in a slight lead, but with recent news I’d put FDT very slightly behind the other two.
July 27th, 2007 at 2:49 pm
Hello, all-
My two cents – remember, I’m the one who “finds much to admire in Senator McCain’s candidacy”:
I remain mystified as how the WaPost could plausibly claim that Romney is AHEAD of Rudy at this point. The only advantage that Romney has is the fact that he can self-finance his campaign to some degree (and it appears that he’s willing to commit a lot of his wealth to it.) Outside of Iowa and NH, his poll numbers are still weak. Perhaps most importantly, in SC his numbers are terrible.
July 27th, 2007 at 2:50 pm
I’m stunned that Mitt is the only candidate who thinks IA and NH are still important but when you’re right, you’re right.
July 27th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
I rarely agree with TLG but post 4… Youre right for a change.
Clearly WaPo see that Romney’s national numbers are low, but his IA and NH numbers look good. Thats because he has made those his focus of course. I think that once he has his IA bounce (if he wins), and is seem as legitimate, he will make Feb 5th competitive. I dont see Rudy mopping the floor of everybody on Feb 5 as his poll numbers of today would suggest. Romney will give him hell on Super Tuesday.
July 27th, 2007 at 3:44 pm
Right. If the process started today, I’d see it as a showdown between Giuliani and Romney on Super Tuesday, with Thompson picking up a couple of Southern states. Thompson may ultimately help Giuliani if Romney gains momentum after IA and NH, by splitting the hard-right vote.
And yes, Nusrat, Tommy “I can’t hear important questions/I needed to go potty” Thompson IS pretty damn boring. For that, we can knock him to 12 out of 10, I think. But you can’t knock those polls where he got 7%! I remain mystified as to how seven percent of likely primary voters could choose Tommy Thompson, though.
July 27th, 2007 at 4:24 pm
With Romney listed as being first, I am shocked ACT Blog’s not all over this.
Maybe someone should check on him….
July 27th, 2007 at 5:29 pm
He’s currently taking part in his daily ritual, which involves much use of mystical incantations meant to summon the Father, Mitt, his Holy Son Tagg, and any other strangely named members of the Romney family that have four letters and end with a double-consonant to his side to seek counsel and wisdom. This ends when Billy Valentine comes into his house to slap him until he says one good thing about Sam Brownback. Then, they both start their posting.
That’s classified information — don’t repeat it.
July 27th, 2007 at 6:04 pm
My list goes something like this:
T. Thompson
1) F. Thompson
2) Romney
3) Giuliani
4) McCain
5) Huckabee
6) Hunter
7) Brownback
9) Tancredo
10) Paul
July 27th, 2007 at 6:05 pm
Real list:
T. Thompson
1) F. Thompson
2) Romney
3) Giuliani
4) McCain
5) Huckabee
6) Hunter
7) Brownback
9) Tancredo
10) Paul
July 27th, 2007 at 6:26 pm
Um…do you have any sort of justification at all? Why the hell is Hunter four spots above Ron Paul? In fact, why is Hunter not in last? And why, oh why is Giuliani in third? Jammerman, please.
July 27th, 2007 at 7:35 pm
TLG,
Think any T. Thompson voters in Iowa are just confused with the other Thompson?
July 27th, 2007 at 7:37 pm
and wow, jammerman…that’s a pretty irrational list. Paul is, at the very, very worst, at sixth behind Huckabee and the regular four. And Hunter?
July 27th, 2007 at 7:40 pm
Nusrat, while I agree Paul doesn’t deserve to be last place any longer, placing him at 6th still seems way to high for me right now. I might say 7th if you catch me on a good day, and probably 8th ahead of Tancredo and Hunter.
July 27th, 2007 at 8:40 pm
leave it to TLG of all people to miss my pro-Romney posts. Maybe he’s a closet Romney supporter after all.
The way I see it, there are two logical choices for the top spot on a ranking – Romney and Giuliani. It all depends on which strategy you think will pay off and how important you think the early states are. If you think they are very important, Romney would appear to have a solid lead in the race. If you think they will be of little importance, and that Super Tuesday is more important, than Rudy is ahead. Other than that, no candidates have the kind of support to win the nomination. Even the two I mentioned may not have enough support to win the nomination before the convention. While Thompson does well in national polls, his support is largely concentrated in the South. In other areas, he does not do nearly as well. He polls only moderately well in early states, and has no mass support within ST states.
My ranking:
1) Romney, Giuliani
Hunter
2) F. Thompson
3) McCain
4) Huckabee
5) Brownback
6) Tancredo
7) T. Thompson
9) Paul
July 27th, 2007 at 9:22 pm
ACT Blog, I’m not a closet Romney supporter when I put on my analyst cap, but an objective, neutral observer.
And anyone honest would have to say that Romney and Giuliani are tied for frontrunner status as of today, inasmuch as we have no clue how important Iowa and New Hampshire will be.
Though I cannot fathom why you’d put Hunter at anywhere but last, and Paul in last.
July 28th, 2007 at 12:05 pm
huckabee is amazing. he can be so likeable and impresssive to others but has absolutly not campaigning abilities. What does he do alll day? Why is he so horrendously horrible and building a campaign. that alone is my biggest issue with him.
i imagine he will be forced to drop out after ames becuase brownback seems to be way more aggressive (annoying as well) than huckabee is garnering support.
he has for sure been the biggest disappointment in this race.
he needs to run for senate in arkansas.
July 28th, 2007 at 3:50 pm
Romney is intelligent, professional, successful, articulate, strong, focused and dedicated.
He’s got my vote.