GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
I just got back from Vacation a few days ago. Spent some time in California visiting my family and Southern Utah visiting my wifes family. I quickly realized that my family is in fact better. Just Kidding. But it did give my mind the much needed break from hounding the Google pages and looking for anything about 2008. No matter how hard the first couple days were.
When I came back it was hard to get myself back to blogging, because the freedom from the computer, bought with a price, was a special prize. But I am back, and ready to shove Romney down your throats.
Now on with my post…
Since I left things seem to have taken a dramatic turn for Fred. Is he done? Not even close. Is he wounded? Yes. But it’s no real surprise. There are two reasons in my book why the Fred Thompson’s campaign seems to be suffering right now, and frankly it will continue:
1. His supporters have made Fred the God of all things conservative2008, and he gladly accepts it.
2. His lack of an official campaign gives some credence to the laziness charge, but more importantly it has turned him into a paper tiger.
I will address the first, first.
Fred hasn’t helped himself. Fred likes the compliments. How do I know? Just listen to his interview on Redstate.com where he thanks Chief Editor Erick for really covering the Fred story right. In other words, he likes the shilling, he likes the flattery, his ego is happy. If he wants to say that in a private note, or conversation fine, but to do it publicly said a lot in my mind.
Fred’s multi-use metaphor of gnats swatting at a horse is really a killer: He is positioning himself as a the dark horse, or the white horse or something equestrian- candidate and everyone else as bugs. That is setting up a situation where everything now expected out of him is huge and the others can’t compete. He will squash us when he wakes up.
It’s very disingenuous for his supporters to say he’s getting knocked before he is out of the gate. He is out of the gate. He has been since April. The guy has put himself all over the net, he is running a campaign and he has no other job. Is busy dealing with Boss Hog and the Duke boys? No, he’s running a campaign that does/does not exist.
Equally so, Fred supporters have a paradoxical claim when they tell people he is not lazy, but the reason for small results is because oh yeah, he’s not doing anything. That’s like saying I am not fat, but hey guess what I can’t ride the rides at Disneyland because I am so spectacular in waist size.
Now, I know I am a Romney supporter, and Fred is bottom of my list, (well not bottom- a step above Brownback.) But believe me, when I say it, if Fred should win I will support him just a strongly as I have Romney. But he has got some serious problems/dichotomies in his campaign - many of which are self imposed. I am not writing him off, but part of Fred’s credibility as a candidate has certainly been diminished, and only time will tell if he can rebuild it.
July 31st, 2007 at 6:13 pm
Obe interesting thing about Fred that I saw posted and that resonated was that for all of his career, fred has always been the supporting player.
In Holloywood, he was always a charcter actor. He had his niche and he played it well, but the movie was always carried by someone else(Alec Baldwin, Kevin Costner, Sean COnnery, Gene Hackman, Tom Cruise, Nruce Willis, etc…) Even on Law and Order he basically has a scene or two per show, Sam Waterston and his blonde of the mement really carry the legal portion of the show. Fred is just a nice condiment.
In the Senate, he was never in any leadership position or considered one of the top Republicans in the Senate. He had some issues, sure, but guys like Dole. McCain, Lott, McConnell, Lugar, Warner, etc… were always more influential and more powerful.
Now, for the 1st time, Fred’s being asked to be the leading man. It’s like you have all these producers, a great director, and a great script, but you’re going with a first time star. Now, that can work, but it can also run into trouble.
If he has around 5M for June/July, that’s not great, but I bet Mitt Romney would trade poll numbers with him in a minute.
Also, Fred doesn;t really need a lot of money because he wins in the South just by showing up. He doesn;t need to spend anything there. If he wins FL, the nomination could well be his. He won’t even bother competing in NY/NJ/PA/ big media market. A win in FL could well catapult him in CA and secure the nomination.
So, he really only needs enough money to compete in FL. And I think he will.
Needless to say, it will be interesting to watch.
July 31st, 2007 at 6:20 pm
Glad you had a good trip, Jason. I find your (and anyone’s for that matter) support of Romney sickening but you make some good points on Thompson.
I’m still on the fence when it comes to Fred. I would like to see how he campaigns, on which issues he focuses and hear some specific policy proposals. Bashing Michael Moore on YouTube only gets a candidate so far with me. For others, a southern accent is enough to rise to top of the list. I don’t think Fred can top Rudy as my choice but right now #2 is up for grabs.
July 31st, 2007 at 6:23 pm
How is “southern charm” a breath of fresh air?
We had 4 years of southern charm.
July 31st, 2007 at 6:24 pm
Eight.
July 31st, 2007 at 6:26 pm
Jason, you must be really out of the loop. Those things you mentioned are the least of Thompson’s problems at this point. There is a growing mutiny amongst his supporters over his hiring of pro Islamic Spence Abraham as campaign chairman. Also, most of his senior staff has deserted from the non-campaign because of the wife. Apparently, mrs. Thompson is the one calling the shots and making all the decisions. He is probably raising $0 at this point with all the mayhem. This will be over soon.
July 31st, 2007 at 6:27 pm
Nusrat, make that 16.
July 31st, 2007 at 6:37 pm
Come on Nusrat. We all know Bush isn’t a real Southerner./sarc
For some utterly inexplicable reason, I’ve heard alot of Southerners using the old “the Republican party ignores us, and won’t nominate any candidates who have a sense of “real-life” that we here in the South experience”. It’s really pretty bizarre. It’s true that Reagan wasn’t a Southerner, but Bush 2 never lacked in his ability to connect to southern voters on a cultural level. That was his almost sole winning campaign virtue. His ability to project folksy, homespun charm with a light Texas drawl. It’s well and good to argue that Bush isn’t really a Southerner, but when we elected him, we elected him on the presumption that he was a folksy Southerner (since that’s what he ran as). So, if the Republican Party failed the South there, by electing a fraud, then you can’t really blame it on Republican voters. We were willing. You guys just didn’t do enough of a screening process. And 8 years later, we’d love it if we could choose a candidate for reasons other then his geographical location, or cultural connections.
July 31st, 2007 at 7:01 pm
Nusrat,
#3. Thats my point. But I am not the one making the point.
Bob Jones,
IMO those things are not the heart of his problems. Those are problems, but easily overcome by simple decisions. The core of Thompsons problems, I believe, lie in my two points.
P.S. Nice University!
July 31st, 2007 at 7:02 pm
Bob Jones,
His building up by his supporters in a near godlike fashion is what makes the Jerri thing and the Mutiney so bad. If they just would have laid quite and forgone the ego trip all of this would have been overcomable.
July 31st, 2007 at 7:26 pm
#4
16 years in case you’ve forgotten that President Clinton.
July 31st, 2007 at 8:41 pm
Clinton was unforgettable. And unforgivable.
July 31st, 2007 at 9:15 pm
If Jeri is running Senator Thompson’s campaign, I need to compliment her on employing one of the best strategies I have seen so far this cycle. Thompson would be foolish to jump into the race at this point – better to maintain a VFP (virtual front porch) strategy. Why peak too early? Do you remember Steve Forbes?
Listen, as much as it pains people here to admit it, Sen. Thompson’s strategy is working and he really doesn’t need to do a whole lot, especially at this point. I’ve long insisted that Thompson needs to model his political persona after a Southern Reagan/Eisenhower template. I don’t think that it would serve him well to get into the weeds of specifics and policy, he should allow voters to project their notion of their ideal candidate onto him. I think that he is doing exactly what he needs to do, I just hope that the delay in his entry is planned and not due to his declining health as some have speculated.
July 31st, 2007 at 9:36 pm
Psycheout,
(11) RE: Clinton unforgivable
Wasn’t it your candidate Sen. Brownback who apologized to HRC for hating her at a prayer meeting? Brownback is guided by his faith in his actions. Are you off the reservatilon in your zeal?
July 31st, 2007 at 10:02 pm
JAPruce,
That’s not a good endorsment of Fred. Fred, just sit back act like Reagen and let the voters project their thoughts on who you really are. That is a disaster for a general and an administration.
We aren’t auditioning for Revlon spokesperson, we are hiring the guy who will be our chief administrator, diplomat, negotiator and run the entire executive branch. Somehow you think it’s good for the American Public for Fred to play to the lowest common denominator of letting the least thinking people to cast their hopes and let a Fred candidacy be the candidacy of silly dreams rather than about his abilities and talents? Scary.
July 31st, 2007 at 10:10 pm
More and more Mitt looks like the best bet for ‘08. Mitt has run things. Big things. He’s cool and calm and confident. I lean to Mitt.
July 31st, 2007 at 11:44 pm
Jason,
For the most part I’ve quit reading a lot of the comment sections here and respond only when I feel its necessary,, but this caught my attention.
Yes, redstate and freerepublic members who support FDT can be annoying, but… so are are Romney supporters. Every candidate has thoughtful posters, and every candidate has their blind supporters as well. It’s not just a “Fred Thang”
August 1st, 2007 at 12:40 am
Tommy, you should keep posting comments, I’d especially like to hear what you think about the fact that we have no idea what Fred actually stands for.
August 1st, 2007 at 1:46 am
Count me as a blind Mitt supporter. But then again, he’s earned it after 13 years of observing him. I would like to think that makes me thoughtful as well.
August 1st, 2007 at 7:12 am
Tommy,
You are right to a degree. But Romney isn’t subject to the self imposed high expectations. Blind Romney supporters do not own and operate major sites with 20,000+ plus hits. Countless times I have read Fred would flatten the field. I don’t think I have ever heard that from a Romney supporter.
As matter of fact, I am not even commenting on the blind supporters, but rather those in Fred’s camp who seem to be on the inside and yet worked hard to leave everyone else with the feeling of Fred’s invincibility. We got it (and still get it) from Haystack, Erick and many of the Fred Bloggers who own sites for Fred and then carried through by the MSM. And that has only served to hurt Fred hugely and is really one of his biggest problems. It’s why problems with Jerri, his defections, perceived mediocre fundraising, etc. has hurt him more than it would any other candidate.
August 1st, 2007 at 2:29 pm
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