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He must first face Darth McCain. Alone.
Let me begin this post by coming out of the closet, so to speak, and acknowledging that I have long been one of the few Republicans who spent much of the race for 2008 semi-rooting for McCain. He was my second choice for the GOP nod for much of the past two years, and I supported him over then-Gov. Bush in the Michigan primary in 2000. McCain always struck me as a decent conservative pragmatist in the vein of Bob Dole who would have played very well in the swing states of the Midwest with his understated cultural conservatism and common-sense domestic reformism. But as most observers now admit, McCain’s quest for the presidency is likely nearing its end, with the immigration bill breaking the camel’s back on the right and with McCain’s unwavering support for Iraq obliterating his standing among swing voters. The only question now seems to be whether McCain will stick around to lose in the early primaries next year, or whether he’ll pack it in early and spend his twilight years in the upper chamber.
So what does all of this have to do with Rudy? A lot. It is my view that Sen. McCain’s continued presence in the race is preventing Mayor Giuliani from breaking away from the pack, a la Hillary Clinton, and becoming the undisputed national frontrunner for the GOP nod. It is also my view that there is little difference between the shape of the GOP field and the Democratic one, at least at the top tier, excepting that we have a McCain in the race and they don’t. McCain, by drawing disproportionate support from Giuliani, is setting the GOP up for a long, drawn-out primary season that Rudy will win anyway, but only with more promises to the obsolete Bush Base that will hurt him among swing voters in the fall of ‘08. As Yoda, Jedi Master, advised Luke Skywalker upon the latter’s return to the Dagobah system in ROTJ, there is but one task remaining before Rudy can truly embrace Jedi-hood: Rudy must face Darth McCain and get him out of the race, thus acquiring the bulk of McCain’s supporters and setting himself up for an easy path to the Republican nomination.
The similarities between the parties’ respective presidential fields can be seen in the Real Clear Politics polling averages for the horserace on either side, a snapshot of which can be found on the RCP front page. At first glance, the parties appear quite dissimilar, with Hillary Clinton enjoying a massive lead over her nearest competitor, Barack Obama, who in turn is doing a bit better than his second-place counterpart on the GOP side, Fred Thompson. But again, these are polls that include the now-defunct candidate McCain. Here are the current polling averages posted on RCP:
Real Clear Politics Polling Averages
GOP Nomination
Rudy: 28%
Thompson: 18.7%
McCain: 15.5%
Romney: 9.8%Democratic Nomination
Hillary: 39.5%
Obama: 24.8%
Edwards: 10.5%
The fields are more similar than they are different. In each case, the candidate on the tail end of the national average is a one-term public official who won statewide in enemy territory, who is relatively young, and who does better in the early states than in national polls. Coming in second in each field is the candidate who excites various elements of the party base and who supposedly has some appeal to centrists and swing voters based either on personal charisma or star power (of the Hollywood variety). And leading each field is a New Yorker who is viewed by the party base as too centrist and who is viewed by swing voters as being not centrist enough, or at least not sufficiently disconnected from the party establishment. But only in the Republican field is there a McCain. He has no Democratic counterpart.
Because we have so little data on what McCain voters would actually do in his absence, we are forced to make a few assumptions. First, let’s assume that McCain’s supporters likely fall into three roughly equally sized categories. One category consists of Bob Dole Conservatives, folks who are tempermental but not ideological conservatives, who show up at VFW meetings, and who would prefer that the old mainstream Protestant white guy who will effect the least change on the nation become president. The second category probably could be defined as Main Streeters, pro-business types who want a fiscally prudent president, who care little about social issues, and who vote GOP for no other reason than that the Democrats will make their lives harder economically. A third group consists of secular conservatives, more commonly known as South Park Republicans. These voters are very fiscally conservative and extremely hawkish, but are largely pro-choice, have gay friends, and are primarily areligious. They liked McCain in 2000 because of his fiscal conservatism, military creds, and seeming social agnosticism, and some probably hung on for 2008.
If each group comprises about a third of McCain’s support, that means that each represents just over 5% of the GOP electorate that won’t have a candidate in a race without McCain. So who is most likely to scoop up each group? The first category — the VFW guys — will probably go to Thompson, the old, normal, mainstream Protestant in the race whose positions are quite consistent with those of McCain 2000. The latter two groups — the Main Street moderates and secular conservatives — will find a natural home in Camp Rudy. If we distribute these voters accordingly, Rudy would then lead the field with between 38 and 39 percent, Thompson would have nearly 24 percent of the vote, and Romney would remain at about 10 percent. These numbers are almost identical to the Hillary/Obama/Edwards spread. In other words, a race without McCain is a race in which Rudy leads the GOP field with the same advantage that Hillary has over her fellow Democrats. And that would make Rudy the inevitable nominee, which would allow him to start running for the general election, which Hillary is doing as we speak.
Memo to Rudy: get McCain out of this race. Promise him anything. He wants to be SecDef? Great. Veep? Move him to the top of the shortlist. Whatever it takes, Mr. Mayor, whatever it takes. Because a race without McCain is a race you can’t lose.
August 2nd, 2007 at 9:12 pm
DaveG — How incredibly hopeful of you
If it is true, as you suggest, that Hillary is running to the middle ( as she did immediately after the Midterms and as her hubby specialized in) then I think there is a greater possibility that she will lose the nomination.
The Democrat base is still anti-war, socialist, and foaming at the mouth.
Still, it is a truth in campaigning that one wants to define the opponent before the opponent defines them. I think all of the Republicans would benefit from ganging up on the Dem’s and pointing out their way-out-left, out of the mainstream views. After all in the YouTube Debacle Hillary admitted to being a progressive in the early 20th century mold — i.e. a socialist.
August 2nd, 2007 at 9:16 pm
Excellent post, Dave. I fall into the “South Park” conservative camp, as do the great majority of my (under 30) friends. Rudy is my first choice, McCain my second. No one else in the race really excites me. I would like to see what Thompson has to say, but I am growing more doubtful he will ever say anything. I won’t support Romney who I see as a pathetic opportunist. And the also-rans are just that.
I’m not overly concerned about immigration (being a well-educated, white-collar professional, immigrants working in construction and janitorial services doesn’t impact me, at least not economically) and social issues are insignificant to my vote, but I am pro-choice, pro-stem cell research and pro-equal rights for gays. As someone who is finding himself increasingly disillusioned with today’s GOP, the idea of a real fiscal conservative, foreign policy hawk and social moderate gives me some hope that our party is not falling off a cliff. I hardly know if I am in any way indicative of the voters about whom you are speaking, but you spot on when it comes to me and many younger voters I know.
August 2nd, 2007 at 9:20 pm
If Aron was around, he would have some really interesting things to say in support of Dan’s comment above.
August 2nd, 2007 at 9:37 pm
Dave,
If you look back a few days ago I actually posted that Rudy should offer McCain SecDef right now if he gets out. Great minds think alike. I’d have to think running the Pentagon would be a much greater honor for McCain than serving out his career as 1 of 100 Senators, and one in the minority at that. If he wants VP, ok. I doubt VP appeals to him, though.
Also, you forgot to mention that there is a McCain on the dems side but he issn’t always included-Al Gore. When Gore is listed in polls, Hillary’s #s get closer to Rudy’s. Also, the GOP has Newt Gingrich who’s included in every poll for some unknown reason eating up 5-10%. Without Newt and McCain on the GOP side and without Gore on the dem side, I’d suspect the #s would be rather similar.
August 2nd, 2007 at 9:45 pm
How in hell is Gore like McCain, jim? Being a fourth candidate doesn’t make you similar to that candidate. By that measure, hey — Bill Richardson is the McCain, too!
August 2nd, 2007 at 9:46 pm
I guess in the sense that he sucks some numbers up from the frontrunner. That’s fine. Never mind. I was thinking ideologically comparative to the party base.
August 2nd, 2007 at 9:54 pm
If Rudy were to offer McCain the SecDef post or even Sec of State, I’d get McCain to first indicate that he is interested and then publicly announce it. Traditionally this never happens, but Bill Richardson is doing this with his campaign… and when he announces his proposed cabinet next week, he’ll get a lot of attention.
I’m not saying Rudy should run through even single cabinet posting. But by giving the electorate an indication as to who would be running one or two major departments, especially State and Defence, sends a clear message.
That, and McCain is a natural for such a cabinet posting.
August 2nd, 2007 at 10:13 pm
Or maybe Rudy can give McCain the chance to give birth to his children — the compromised Immigration Bill and whatever else he wanted (something to do with Iraq but I’m not sure).
August 2nd, 2007 at 10:17 pm
If Rudy promises McCain SecDef, and then the Iraq war gets worse, Rudy’s election chances are immediately torpedoed.
Think ahead people! There is a reason all candidates other than McCain are lukewarm over Iraq.
August 2nd, 2007 at 10:18 pm
By lukewarm, I mean that candidates are giving themselves wiggle-room to distance themselves from Iraq come General election time.
Rudy tying himself to McCain prevents him from doing that. In the current climate that is a bad idea.
August 2nd, 2007 at 10:26 pm
BTW, Gore is similar to McCain in a few ways:
- the experienced “old man” of the party
- many in the base regret him not winning in 2000
- nomination would be seen as a reward for taking the 2000 loss on the chin
- both have good environmental credentials
- both are respected by the base for their stands on the war
- seen as the past in a race for the future.
August 2nd, 2007 at 10:36 pm
I meant more Gore=McCain in terms of impact on polls, not ideologically. Newt’s presence also impacts things. I doubt he’s running at all so more accurate polls should be taken without him.
I didn’t mean for Rudy to offer DOD and then announce it right away.
It would be more of an understanding and then It could be rolled out at the right time during the general election campaign.
I also think Rudy would be wise to unveil a potential cabinet, either in the primay or before the general, but only if he gets certain people on board. For example, announcing a Joe Lieberman at DOD or State or an Estrada as AG or my dream of dreams John Bolton at anything(I’m think Natl Sec Advisor since he wouldn’t need to face th Senate again), would be huge boons. I think Bolton will support Fred, thouhg, given the AEI tie.
August 2nd, 2007 at 10:41 pm
Also, the Obama implosion this week was fascinating. From the whole dust up with Hillary to inavding and attacking Pakistan to today completely immolating himself in my view by renounicng nukes and basically coming out for unilateral disarmament, he’ not only removed any thought I had of voting for or even feeling ok about him winning, but he’s shown himself to not be qualified.
Hillary is more than 2-1 over him and she’ll run away with this.
I still think he could end up VP, though. Especially if she wants to make nice with the black vote who could be angry at her for taking him out.
An interesting scenario, though, if the surge works and Petraeus comes back with a positive report and things continue to improve into the Winter/Spring. I could very well see Hillary triangualting, playing to general, burnishing her toughness, and scaling back her withdrawal rhetoric to support the success.
This makies it likely a 3rd party from the antiwar left will arise.
they won’t win, but an antiwar/withdrawal now party(Edwards, Clark, whoever)could end up with enough of a % when combined with the lefties who will simply stay home out of disillusionment to swing the election to the GOP
August 2nd, 2007 at 10:51 pm
Hillary being disliked by the black vote? Unlikely. She can appoint a VP to appease another group, and send the unofficial VP out to help shore up the black vote.
No one is more liked than Bill Clinton…
August 2nd, 2007 at 10:53 pm
I also think implosion is a crazily strong word to use for Obama’s work this week. Implosion should probably be reserved just for McCain.
August 2nd, 2007 at 11:06 pm
Speaking of McCain…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070802/ap_on_el_pr/mccain_immigration_1
August 3rd, 2007 at 1:15 am
“By lukewarm, I mean that candidates are giving themselves wiggle-room to distance themselves from Iraq come General election time.
“Rudy tying himself to McCain prevents him from doing that. In the current climate that is a bad idea.”
Charlie Rose asked Rudy point blank whether there was any difference between him and McCain on Iraq policy. Rudy said, IIRC, “Very slight,” implying nothing substantial, and went on to say that McCain’s leadership on Iraq policy was something he admired most about him.
Which doesn’t mean I think that either McCain’s dropping out of the race, no matter what Rudy offers him.
August 3rd, 2007 at 9:43 am
“the idea of a real fiscal conservative, foreign policy hawk and social moderate gives me some hope that our party is not falling off a cliffâ€
Dan,
I totally agree!
Rudy is the only candidate that can save the GOP next year.
August 3rd, 2007 at 12:47 pm
[...] The Force is Strong with Rudy, But He’s Not a Jedi Yet… He must first face Darth McCain. Alone. [...]
August 3rd, 2007 at 1:06 pm
Hello, all-
As the new-media publisher who “finds much to admire about Senator McCain’s candidacy”, here are my thoughts, for what they are worth:
1. I must give DaveG credit for
a) an intriguing thesis;
b) using a pop-culture iconic metaphor to grab the reader’s attention;
c) having a lot of facts to back up his thesis.
2. Speaking only for myself, I would like to emphasize that I am unwilling to concede McCain’s defeat. So the rest of this post has been written – under the assumption – that DaveG is correct when he says that McCain cannot possibly win the nomination. Under those circumstances, here are my thoughts:
I do not see how it would be to Rudy’s advantage to broker such a deal. It would be obvious that there had been some sort of deal struck, for one thing. Another is the fact that Rudy would then be forced (whether he wants to or not) to constantly address questions (properly put), as to whether the future of the war would hinge on his own vision – or McCain’s – or some blend of the two.
Finally, I cannot imagine any candidate, Rudy or otherwise, who would want to – even informally – commit a major Cabinet position, well over a year prior to his/her putative election, no matter how qualified the nominee is.
Obviously, Senator McCain is exceptionally well-qualified to serve not only as President or Vice President, but as Secretary of State or Defense. I speculate that if a Republican wins the White House, that McCain would certainly entertain an offer of either of those Cabinet positions.
As for offering him the VP slot, I speculate that the chance of McCain taking it, would be nil. There would be no benefit for him. It’s his turn for the top spot or bust. Leaving the Senate with his level of seniority, to become VP, would actually represent a diminishment of his influence on substantive matters, rather than an enhancement.
Reactions are welcome.