We are just three days out from the Ames Straw Poll right now - here are the public strategies of each of the campaigns for this seminal moment in the Race 4 2008:
- Mitt Romney has sent out a direct mailer, set up an 800 number for people to call for free tickets, bus rides, and food, and has set up incentives (like being on the Romney Wall of Fame and getting a free t-shirt) for folks who bring 5 people, knock on 50 doors, make 100 phone calls, or recruit people to ride the Romney buses to Ames. Team Mitt has rented more than 99 air conditioned buses for the event - at least one for every county in Iowa - and the guests on those buses will be treated to free food and a recorded message from Romney. Once at the straw poll, Romney’s tent will be replete with more free food (local Iowa BBQ), local bands, and yes, inflatable bouncy things for the kids. And finally, the Romney campaign is airing this new commercial starting today until Saturday:
- Sam Brownback has at least 45 interns at his Iowa headquarters, most of them with only one job: man the phones. Interns make phone calls to Iowans twelve hours a day, six days a week to try and round up support for the Ames Straw Poll. And recently, they have a pretty unique way of doing it, too: they are calling Iowans who support John McCain and telling them, “McCain has chosen not to participate in the straw poll, and we’d like you to show your support for his values by voting for Brownback.” Officials in the Brownback campaign say their phone efforts have so far “exceeded our internal expectations.” Team Brownback also is recruiting people to be bus captains, that is, to sign up at least 50 people to ride a bus together to Ames on Saturday. They are using a military theme for the campaign, saying that volunteers are joining the “Brownback Army” and anyone interested in going to Ames should call their “Brownback Bus General”. Once at the site, Sam’s tent will be the site of what his campaign calls “An afternoon of prayer and celebration” (the mailer even has the Holy Spirit as a dove and some heavenly beams of light) - a direct appeal to religious conservatives. Norma McCorvey, the Roe of Roe v Wade, will be at Sam’s tent as well, explaining her conversion to the pro-life camp. (Bonus points for anyone who can spot the irony there.)
- Mike Huckabee doesn’t have any sort of transportation organization to get people to Ames, but he is offering free tickets like the other campaigns, and the week leading up to the straw poll he is spending touring dozens of cities in Iowa encouraging people to go there and vote for him. Mike has told reporters that several of Sam Brownback’s supporters have told him they now plan on supporting him at Ames instead because of the recent tussle Sam and Mike had about religious issues, and that he is aiming for a third place finish in the poll (although a 4th or 5th place finish “wouldn’t be a campaign ender” either). Once at Ames, Mike plans on attracting folks to his tent by offering the famous Hope watermelons from Arkansas. Hope watermelons are the largest in the world, and Huck will be displaying 150-pounders at his tent to attract attention.
- Tom Tancredo has 58 buses setup to go to Ames, and he also is offering free tickets and has been spending all his time recently in Iowa rounding up supporters for the straw poll. His campaign is also encouraging supporters to do “door to door literature drops” throughout Iowa leading up to Saturday, with literature, of course, provided by Tancredo’s Iowa office. He is also building what his campaign officially calls “The Army Against Amnesty” to support Tom at Ames.
- Tommy Thompson has buses and tickets available for free to his supporters, and has a non-800 phone number available for folks to call for more information. He is aiming for a first or second place finish at the straw poll; otherwise, he says, he will probably drop out of the race. He has been making his “Common Sense Solutions” tour across Iowa lately, and has really camped out in the state since the campaign began. I could not find any further details of his plans anywhere.
- Duncan Hunter has no organization that I could find anywhere, and is even making his supporters buy their own tickets to the straw poll.
- Ron Paul’s supporters are encouraging one another to promise support to Mitt Romney to secure free transportation to Ames, and then vote for Ron Paul once they get there. The Paul campaign has purchased 500 tickets that they are giving out to “eligible Iowa residents” for the straw poll.
August 8th, 2007 at 11:35 am
I love the tatics being employed by the Romney campaign. He is showing one of the reasons why I support him - his savvy, innovative, and forward-thinking ideas. This is how business works and this is how you get business done. I love it.
Anyone who thinks he is “buying” votes is just sour that their candidate of choice doesn’t have these savvy skills. The talent Romney would bring to the office is off-the charts. His Team organization is evidence of that.
August 8th, 2007 at 11:42 am
agreed. Straw polls have long been about bringing in supporters and offering incentives for them to support you. Romney simply has the money and organization to do this on a massive scale. Hopefully a Romney win can force out some of the lesser-candidates. My picks to drop out:
Thompson
Hunter
Brownback
Paul
August 8th, 2007 at 11:46 am
Is this really how Ron Paul’s supporters act? Not enough personal integrity to stand up for their guy, but would rather lie and deceive to get a free ticket? I think Paul has a unique message, but the message his support base is sending with these tactics would make me wary. me
August 8th, 2007 at 11:50 am
Irony? The only irony is that Norma McCorvey was used by pro-abortion activists the same way Mitt Romney is trying to use the pro-life movement. Norma didn’t become pro-life when she decided she wanted to run for president.
August 8th, 2007 at 12:05 pm
Romney is just as big of a flip flopper as John Kerry. As for having business savy..please. The dude is a multimillionair. He’s buying votes, how savy does one have to be to buy votes? John Kerry could have done the samething does that make him savy?
August 8th, 2007 at 12:06 pm
Even though my man Rudy ain’t participating in the Straw Poll, you got to love the high
political drama that accompanies this event. It will be interesting to see if Romney blows
everyone out of the water or if he wins by an unimpressive amount. My pick for 2nd is Huckabee
with a folksy message and the perception that he won or at least was in the top tier at Sunday’s
debate. Finally it be interesting to see how many votes non-contenders Rudy McThompson get.
August 8th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
Brownback, T. Thompson, Gilmore and Tancredo should fade out after Saturday.
I’d like to see Paul go too. I Think Hunter should drop, but I’m holding out for him to join Romney on the ticket, even if he is a long shot.
Romney isn’t doing anything that hasn’t been done in the past during any straw poll.
August 8th, 2007 at 12:11 pm
Billy,
Norma was personally pro-choice all the way up to 1995 when she wrote a book about the subject.
Then she had a conversion experience and became personally pro-life, and wrote another book explaining her conversion.
I wonder if Sam has a collection of YouTube videos on Norma from 1995 and before that he’s going to attack her with?
August 8th, 2007 at 12:11 pm
Among the many huge differences between Romney and Kerry is that Romney earned his money, while Kerry married it.
August 8th, 2007 at 12:16 pm
Well, thats for another post. HOWEVER, Romney, as I’m sure even his detractors will admit, only changed positions once, in a rightward direction. He became more Conservative, just like Reagan. Kerry flipped repeatedly, depending on the latest polls.
The problem with Kerry was not that he changed positions, its that he would have conducted his Presidency - and the war - according to the latest poll. He was weak and indecisive. Whatever you think of Romney, you cannot deny that he is committed to his current positions.
August 8th, 2007 at 12:37 pm
Well its great to have Norma McCorvey on the Brownback team. But one thing i was surprised about was that Mike Huckabee doesnt seem to a very good organization set up as far as buses go? Does anyone think that will hurt him for the straw poll, because i feel Sen.Brownback and Mitt Romney probably have the best organizations set up for the straw poll, just wanted to know what you all felt about that?
August 8th, 2007 at 1:45 pm
Romney may be able to buy enough votes to do very well at Ames. But he doesn’t have the cash to buy enough votes in the national election.
August 8th, 2007 at 2:03 pm
Brownbackers are such crybabies
August 8th, 2007 at 2:09 pm
Romney is going to have a tougher time in the primaries than the general. He is only 4% behind Hillary - not bad, considering at least 1/4 of the voters still don’t know who he is.
August 8th, 2007 at 2:13 pm
“Romney may be able to buy enough votes to do very well at Ames. But he doesn’t have the cash to buy enough votes in the national election.”
As I recall, it doesn’t cost anything to vote in an election. Romney, like everybody else at Ames, is just removing the financial barriers to voting (I believe the charge is $35 per ticket, though correct me if I’m wrong). By providing buses and all the rest, he’s showing his organizational abilities and having some fun at the same time. I can easily see how these organizational skills will translate into more votes at election time. Romney is playing the same game as everybody else. They’re all on equal ground.
August 8th, 2007 at 2:13 pm
There is no indication that Ron Paul’s campaign is advocating lying to Romney’s campaign and using his bus and ticket to get into the straw poll. This is just another example of the neo-cons lying about Ron Paul.
Ron Paul will not drop out after Iowa, no matter what the result. He is in it for the long haul. Interesting that Mitt Romney thinks that his 5 military-age sons are “serving” their country by campaigning for him, rather than joining up to fight in Iraq.
August 8th, 2007 at 2:26 pm
Brownbackers are such crybabies
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Cheapshot…
August 8th, 2007 at 2:43 pm
[...] this description of Romney’s strategy at race42008 by the estimable [...]
August 8th, 2007 at 2:57 pm
I couldn’t understand some parts of this article o.us poetry, but I guess I just need to check some more resources regarding this, because it sounds interesting.
August 8th, 2007 at 3:01 pm
And if one of Romney’s son’s enlisted now the same detractors would call it a major “pander”. They are all smart and hard-working kids. They are good people. This “chicken-hawk” argument won’t hold. Only McCain and HUnter have kids in the military and they’re former military men themselves. The Romney family doesn’t have a strong military tradition. It would be disingenuous for one to enlist now that he’s running for President.
And where are all the complaints that George W. Bush bought the straw poll over Steve Forbes (who spent nearly $2,000 for each vote he received there) in 1999?
The straw poll is meant to attract people and raise money for the Iowa GOP. The big losers are Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson who are not supporting the Iowa GOP (and we don’t like that!)
August 8th, 2007 at 3:05 pm
“Spencer Says: …. There is no indication that Ron Paul’s campaign is advocating lying to Romney’s campaign and using his bus and ticket to get into the straw poll.”
PLEASE… are you joking?? These nut cases running around the internet trying to stack every unscientific poll they can find are RP’s campaign! Outside of interviews and debates what else does RP have going for him? He knows, and condones this behavior from his love group, which has been persisting since the first debate, if not before that point. He has had ample opportunity to broadly disavow himself of these shameless tactics. He chooses to let is continue, as it brings him unearned and easy attention. Every day RP sits by and let’s this go on I lose more and more respect for him. It makes him look like a joke.
August 8th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
I believe Romney will come in first, however I do believe one of the top tier candidates will come in second. (take your pick). I hope Huck comes in third. Brownback and Huck have been diverging over last couple of months..Huck for the better and Brownback for the worse. I hardly believe that anyone will miss Brownback.
August 8th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
JUST TO CLARIFY.
ALL OF THE CANDIDATES CAN/SHOULD BE BUYING TICKETS FOR THEIR POTENTIAL SUPPORTERS. THE IOWA GOP WANTS AS MANY PEOPLE THERE AS POSSIBLE TO HELP RAISE AS MUCH MONEY FOR THE PARTY AS POSSIBLE. GETTING PEOPLE THERE THROUGH GREAT ORGANIZATION IS WHAT THE IOWA GOP WANTS. ALL THIS “VOTE BUYING” NONSENSE IS OBVIOUSLY COMING FROM POLITICAL NEOPHYTES OR BITTER RIVAL CAMPAIGNS ALREADY SPINNING THEIR POOR SHOWING.
August 8th, 2007 at 3:09 pm
I say “Ride a Brownback bus and vote for Huckabee!!!”
(Sarc/TIC/etc . . .)
August 8th, 2007 at 3:21 pm
Bryan, Yes I do think that will hurt Huckabee. He will still have a fairly decent showing because he has some significant strengths and is fairly popular in Iowa. The straw poll (and any Get Out the Vote effort) depend upon organization as much as anything. It’s hard to deny that Romney and Brownback have the best organization set up for the event. And they should benefit from that. Giuliani and Thompson also poll pretty well in Iowa. But I can’t help thinking that Giuliani’s and McCain’s bypassing of the poll will place them out of the top spots.
I will say organization rules the day, but Thompson maintains his buzz and still places fairly high. My prediction:
(1) Romney
(2) Brownback
(3) F. Thompson
(4) Huckabee
(5) T. Thompson
(6) Tancredo
(7) Giuliani
(8) McCain
(9) Hunter
(10)Paul
I just thought it’d be fun to predict. I don’t know, though. It’s hard to know how much influence the top tier candidates will have despite most of them more or less ignoring the straw poll. Ames should be a good test, though. If Giuliani, McCain, Thompson still do fairly well, it will be a major hit to the second tier candidates. If they can’t place well in a poll whose outcome will depend very much on the amount of effort and organization put into it, the primaries will be difficult to win. I don’t expect anyone other than T. Thompson to drop out, though, because I doubt Thompson will meet his goal. I don’t know what to say about Hunter. If he’s not organizing, that certainly seems strange.
August 8th, 2007 at 3:49 pm
My top predictions are:
1.) Brownback- Close
2.) Romney-Close
3.) Huck
4.) T. Thompson
5.) Tancredo
August 8th, 2007 at 3:56 pm
For what it’s worth, here’s my prediction.
1. Romney (will barely meet hyped expectations-similar to his Q2 fundraising performance)
2. Giuliani (very strong showing, enough to keep him the clear front runner)
3. Brownback (How did Giuliani beat Brownback? Not good for the campaign)
4. Huckabee (Strong showing, propels him past Brownback, especially given his lack of organization)
5. F. Thompson (Enough to keep him excited about September 5th???)
6. McCain (Good soldier)
7. The rest
Romney gets a media boost and sees a modest jump in his poll numbers. Social Conservatives realize Giuliani is for real. I’ll stop here.
August 8th, 2007 at 4:58 pm
Romney will win this thing easily. I predict he will get more than twice as many votes as anybody else. I also predict that Rudy will cone in second. After that, it really doesn’t matter. At this point, the only other person who has any chance of getting the nomination is Fred Thompson, and he’s a long shot. The game’s afoot. Forces are in motion. Seeds have been sown. If any of the other candidates could possibly catch fire, we would nave seen some evidence of it by now.
August 8th, 2007 at 5:15 pm
I also predict that Rudy will cone in second.
——
I think you may be wrong here…At least use some common sense and think about what attract people to vote in a straw poll Rudy’s voters either are not going to show up or are going to vote for someone else.
August 8th, 2007 at 5:22 pm
[...] Race42008 proving an excellent analysis of the participating candidate’s ground games (read it; like the rest of the site it’s practically crack for pundits), what are the [...]
August 8th, 2007 at 10:19 pm
bobl: Why would Rudy’s voters go all the way to Ames to vote for somebody else? I am sure most Rudy supporters in Iowa will skip the straw poll since their candidate will not be there and they will not be able to get free tickets. But those who show up will vote for him.
August 9th, 2007 at 9:57 am
Bryan, it was said that Romney team had reserve every single of 150ish buses in Iowa, so all of the other campaigns will have to bring in buses from out of state, which is not exactly cheap. I am surprised, though, that T Thompson could afford to do so!
August 9th, 2007 at 10:02 am
Everyone, you only get votes if your own supporters are there in the first place. Rudy is not doing ANYTHING for the Ames - there is nothing about his team purchasing a single ticket for his supporter, let alone anything other. Only the hard core (those who are approaching 2,300 max contribution) would be willing to show up, but only Iowans are allowed to vote. There are not that many Iowans for Rudy (11% with last polls). R.Paul with his 500 tickets will get more votes than Rudy. Rudy will not finish in top 3.
August 9th, 2007 at 12:38 pm
Anyone who thinks Rudy, McCain, or Fred Thompson will place in the top three clearly doesn’t understand the nature of the straw poll. Sure, they’ll have some devoted supporters who trek to Ames and spend $35 to cast a vote even though their candidate isn’t participating. But they will need at least 500 votes to make a splash. I can see them beating out Duncan Hunter and John Cox, who will both drop out, but everyone else should have at least marginally more support present. Romney will win in a landslide, by at least double digits. Huckabee should finish 2, with Ron Paul and Sam Brownback close behind. Ron Paul has the devoted supporters who will travel distances to support him, which is why I think he’ll have a great showing. But Paul fans shouldn’t be disillusioned into thinking its representative of his actual support. Tommy Thompson will have a very poor showing and drop out; he’ll finish 4 if he’s lucky. Tancredo’s gaining steam but I think it’s too little too late for him and he will drop as well.
August 9th, 2007 at 7:02 pm
Tommy Thompson has 1800 supporters pledging to bring 5 friends each to the poll. That’s 10800 voters, 3000 more than George W. Bush when he won in 1999.
August 9th, 2007 at 7:08 pm
I met Tommy Thompson myself, and I will be voting for him. He has a strong ground game in Iowa-he has been there each week since last December. I think he will win the poll. In my city of Davenport, 40% of the people support TT. It s gonna be tough to beat him.