The Candidates
Featured Archives
Romney wins, Sam goes bankrupt trying?
Politico’s Martin has this up today:
Campaign aides for Mitt Romney and Sam Brownback have informed the Iowa GOP that they’ll each be bringing over 100 buses to the Ames Straw Poll Saturday. An Iowa Republican said that Romney was bringing about 125 onto the campus of Iowa State University and Brownback just over 100. Tommy Thompson is bringing the third most, about 75. All told, state party officials are planning on the arrival of 375 buses…
That Brownback, who had just $460K on hand at the end of the second quarter, is bringing in nearly as many buses as Romney indicates just how hard a push he’s making.
An astute reader breaks down the numbers though, in the comments section:
Talk about putting your eggs in one basket. Wow Sam. This makes no sense to me. I will be very curious to see what the actual count of buses is. If Brownback actually gets 100 buses there, good for him, I just don’t think he’s being honest right now. Here’s why I don’t believe him: 1)Brownback is registering less than 5% in the polls. If that translates at the straw poll that should be about 1200 votes. (5% of 24000 votes) Each bus holds about 50 people. That would mean that if the buses were full, he claims to be bringing 5000 people to the straw poll. 2) He doesn’t have the money for it. A bus rents for about $700 per day plus mileage. I understand from news reports that Romney already rented every bus in the state so Brownback would be paying for mileage to bring in buses from out of state. At $700 per bus, that’s $70,000 (plus mileage). If the buses are full he’s paying $35 per person to attend the event – that’s $175,000 (5,000 X $35). Then there’s the cost of his booth at the convention and the free food he’s providing. He had $460K as of JUNE 30 and he wasn’t raking in the dough. He’s paid salaries and expenses since then and I doubt his fundraising has improved. If he doesn’t come in with really BIG numbers at the straw poll this will BANKRUPT his campaign.
August 10th, 2007 at 8:35 am
I agree that Brownback has probably placed his entire campaign fund on this one event. If he finishes second then maybe it’s worth it. Either way he’ll need a ton of donations to compete in the Caucus in January. If he doesn’t generate enough buzz in the Straw Poll then he may not make it to the Caucus.
The real wild card is how many Iowans supporting Rudy, Paul or McCain bum tickets off of Romney. It certainly seems like campaigns are depending on Romney’s largess to steal votes.
August 10th, 2007 at 8:43 am
“If he doesn’t come in with really BIG numbers at the straw poll this will BANKRUPT his campaign.”
That’s the idea. If he doesn’t perform well, he’s probably toast; if he ends up at the top of the second-tier candidates, he can probably replenish his coffers. So go for broke, literally.
August 10th, 2007 at 9:02 am
I think it’s a smart move for a second tier candidate like Brownback to go for broke.
With 3 out of 4 top tier candidates not participating in the straw poll, Romney is assured a win. The real contest will be who can come in second place. A second place finish for Brownback could really launch his campaign.
August 10th, 2007 at 9:03 am
TM,
Romney was assured a win with the other top tiers there. That’s why they didn’t bother. Don’t forget that.
August 10th, 2007 at 9:12 am
I will give Romney some credit for having a great organization in Iowa.
But the big story out of the Iowa straw poll will not be Romney’s win, it will be who comes in second.
This is a real opportunity for a second tier candidate to break out of the pack.
August 10th, 2007 at 9:20 am
IIRC, the majority of the Brownback buses were paid for in the second quarter.
August 10th, 2007 at 9:32 am
That reader makes dome excellent points. There is no way Brownback’s buses are going to be even half full provided that he’s been around 5% as most polls indicate.
It will be interesting to see if anyone actually does tally the number of buses from his campaign.
August 10th, 2007 at 9:39 am
That’s not what Ames is about. Ames is about organization and a test of strength of support. A candidate can do well in polls and still not turn people out for the caucus. Similarly, a well-organized candidate with fervent support can do well. That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised to see a strong showing from Ron Paul.
August 10th, 2007 at 9:40 am
Wow!
Did you guys see the latest Rasmussen poll 08/06 – 08/09
Rudy 28%
Fred 19%
Romney 12%
McCain 10%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
This is the only poll that had Fred in the lead, back in June. Looks like Fred may be tanking.
August 10th, 2007 at 9:45 am
Well he certainly hasn’t done anything to remain in the news (which seems to be the main factor in the ’support’ candidates are getting).
August 10th, 2007 at 9:51 am
I never really understood the Fred Thompson phenomenon.
Romney may be in a good position to pick up some of Fred’s support after the Iowa straw poll.
August 10th, 2007 at 9:54 am
To be honest, I’m not really sure I trust that rasmussen poll, the McCain numbers seem right, but thats about it. You are bound to have a couple bad polls once in a while, and I think this one falls into that category. Rudy is too high, and both Romney and Thompson are too low. The Thompson number is understandable, becuase he is not in the race, but Romney should be closer to 14% or 15%. (yes, I know its within the margin of error, but it is a considerable number when you compare it to the results).
We will have to see what Ames brings. I was hoping for some good news for Romney on the last day before the poll, obviously I’m not going to get it.
August 10th, 2007 at 10:04 am
I agree with ACT Blog, Romney should be closer to 14% or 15%. I think when it becomes apparent that Fred is not going to measure up to expectations, Romney will gain some of Fred’s social conservative support.
Although, I do think this Rasmussen poll is more in line with all the other scientific polls that have been done.
Look at the RCP average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
August 10th, 2007 at 10:14 am
You guys are delusional. Do you kow that? What evidence is there to suggest that Romney should be at 14 or 15 %? He’s just not in any other poll. In fact, If you throw out Rasmussen polls over the past several months he has a hell of a time toppin 10 percent in the average of all the others. Just because you guys want it to be so doesn’t make it so. And Rudy’s not too high. And in no way can you say that Rudy is too high. The 28 % in this poll is one point LOWER than the average of every other poll. I think I know where Romney has been burning all of his money. Part of it is the TV ads in IA and NH and another part of it is sending kool-air by mail to the *approximately 10 percent* of the GOP who supports him.
August 10th, 2007 at 10:15 am
ha – sending kool-aid
August 10th, 2007 at 10:18 am
Actually I find it pretty funny that Gingrich is now only a half point off of Romney in the polling average. Maybe he should be at 14 or 15 %.
August 10th, 2007 at 10:29 am
I also agree with Adam, Rudy is not too high. His support has actually been rising.
Although, I do think that Romney will gain more from Fred’s downfall. Fred is more of a protest vote for social conservatives. As soon as it becomes apparent that Fred will not live up to expectations, Romney should be in a good position to capitalize on that.
August 10th, 2007 at 10:37 am
Brownback stated that he will stay in the race regardless of where he finishes in the Ames poll.
Nice ugh?
August 10th, 2007 at 11:28 am
Hello, all-
(from the publisher who “finds much to admire in Senator McCain’s candidacy”)
I give credit to Jason Bonham for putting not only that story, but the particularly astute comment which followed it. My two cents…
Per Brownback – I agree that his only strategy is to hope he does “really well” – if he comes in second or third he’ll be able to claim victory.
There has been a report that Brownback has been calling up McCain supporters and trying to turn them out to vote for Brownback. This is a logical strategy – McCain’s supporters certainly would want to do anything possible to reduce Romney’s victory margin. (Marc Ambinder at The Atlantic put to rest rumors yesterday that the official McCain campaign was behind this, as well as a parallel theory that Rudy was doing the same thing to help Huckabee.)
August 10th, 2007 at 11:42 am
Ames is sounding more and more like subterfuge than a vote for who is best for our country. (Paul’s supporters bumming Romney tickets, Brownback turning McCain voters as a result of McCain’s voters wanting to bring down Romney). I don’t see how McCain’s supporters would find anything in common with Brownback and McCain.
Does anyone here actually support Brownback? If anyone had to pick between Brownback or Huck, who would it be? I choose Huck. Let’s keep Huck and toss Brownback!
August 10th, 2007 at 11:42 am
Adam, each to their own polls, I suppose. True, Ras polls does not match the rest. Too bad ESG isn’t here, but he is a statistic freak, whose comments I very much appreciate. It has something with the types of people you polls. You can ask a wide range of population to get the number you want, but it does not change the fact that historically, something like only 1/3 of those who voted at last election ended up going to primaries. And only 1/2 of the registered voters went into the booths at the last election. I am not sure what percentage of Americans are registered to vote; I think it is less than 50%. Until we get the real number, we are talking about 1/3 of 1/2 of 50% of Americans who would vote at primaries. Ras, as I understand it, focus on those, while most of the polls focus on the vote-able population, while other focus on registered or planned to be. Yes, the polls numbers does get schewed up all over. If I am to choose, I would rather go with what has been realistic at the past few elections, which is Ras polls.
August 10th, 2007 at 11:47 am
Does anyone here actually support Brownback? If anyone had to pick between Brownback or Huck, who would it be? I choose Huck. Let’s keep Huck and toss Brownback!
—
Yes and Brownback
August 10th, 2007 at 11:55 am
Brownback.
August 10th, 2007 at 12:33 pm
Oh yes, those 1/3 voters are splitted between Democratic and Republican primaries… so Adam, that is about 1/2 of 1/3 of 1/2 of 50% of Americans at most who will vote in Republican primaries, a scary minority, indeed. The questions are, who are those minorities, and will we see the repeat of past performances?
August 10th, 2007 at 12:53 pm
“August 10th, 2007 at 9:12 am
TM Says: But the big story out of the Iowa straw poll will not be Romney’s win, it will be who comes in second.”
I disagree. The big story out of Iowa’s straw poll is how Romney scared away the other first tier candidates before they got their momentum going. I knew that Iowa was a “proving ground”, and I thought McCain (because of his prior run of office) understood that much better then I did. What caught me by surprise was that the other campaigns were caught off-guard and decided not to fight. Most commentaries now are minimizing the Ames Straw Poll saying the poll is about the second tier candidates and how those candidates can look good against Romney.
I contend Iowa’s straw poll is about Romney’s Iowa team, their organization, and how they frightened leading competition away. I recall a comment made by Mitt Romney around 6 months ago. He said something like this, “We are building up the ground forces. Next will come the air campaign.” That planning and organization is what the Ames Straw Poll is all about. And in my opinion that is what it shows.
August 10th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
isnt obama expected to rank in this increasingly insignificant straw poll?
August 10th, 2007 at 1:24 pm
[...] Romneybot Jason Bonham provides the (correct) analysis that these numbers make no sense and that Brownback would be [...]
August 10th, 2007 at 1:32 pm
Jack,
Yes i support Brownback b/c he is a great man of strong integrity and would make a great president! I’m 23 years old from Jacksonville and make volunteer phone calls to Iowa voters telling them to support Sen.Brownback at the straw poll, and i’m confident that he will do well. And i hope he does much better than Huckabee, and i’m sure he will.
God Bless Sen. Brownback!!
August 10th, 2007 at 1:35 pm
Norm, spot on. The real story will be Romney’s margin of victory. The only subplot worthy of notice, will be wheere Rudy finishes, i.e., how many Iowans are convinced enough that he is the right man to lead this country, that they are willing to show up and spend 35 bucks to make that statement even after he has dropped out. I think that Rudy will finish second anyway because if I was convinced Rudy was the best candidate and lived anywhere in the state, I would show up to make that statement. If Rudy does really badly it can only mean that his support is really shallow, in which case his support will wither away as the campaign progresses.
August 10th, 2007 at 2:14 pm
To Jack, per comment #25 – McCain/Brownback
I would agree that McCain and Brownback’s voters would not have much in common. But the deal would benefit both, which is why Brownback’s campaign has been calling up McCain’s ID’d voters and offering to ferry them to Ames and pay for their $35 tix, in exchange for a vote for Brownback. EVERY vote Brownback receives benefits McCain – because it will reduce Romney’s margin of victory. McCain’s getting the best of both worlds:
1) Since he’s not competing, whatever he gets in his own column will be viewed as a plus. And he didn’t have to spend a dime to do so.
2) McCain benefits from a reduced Romney victory, without having to campaign in the state that weekend. This whole weekend, McCain’s going to be campaigning in NH.
And it’s in Brownback’s best interest, too. He needs every vote he can get. If McCain voters are willing to accept his offer and cast their ballots for him, it’s a win-win for him. He’ll benefit from doing better in Ames.
Plus, as you noted, McCain and Brownback’s interests don’t directly threaten each other. It’s of no concern to McCain that Brownback exceed expectations – in fact, it would be be better if it did, because all it does is damage Romney. They won’t be fighting for the same voters in Iowa or NH or SC come January (or December!)
August 10th, 2007 at 2:35 pm
The Tower — are you saying that there is a ticket in making?
August 10th, 2007 at 2:36 pm
[...] Romneybot Jason Bonham provides the (correct) analysis that these numbers make no sense and that Brownback would be [...]
August 10th, 2007 at 2:44 pm
SGS- comment #31
Your point is well put… my comment could be construed as that I’m implying that it’ll be McCain/Brownback in 2008!
In all seriousness, however, there is no chance that McCain would run with someone like Brownback, for several reasons. (Obviously, this is a decision that McCain would love to have to agonize over, and “who-would-McCain’s VP be” is an area of speculation which has not been seen for quite a while.) Given that McCain has been in Congress, since being elected to the House in 1982, it would seem absolutely certain, that he’d select someone from outside of DC. (Granted, Kerry took Edwards, but that was for party unification. In addition, Edwards being young and Southern, fulfilled traditional balancing-the-ticket criteria, since Kerry was old and from the Northeast.)
Back when McCain was the front-runner, the general word was that Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty was the favorite for the VP slot. Pawlenty is young, not from DC, and comes from a light blue state – perfect combination. He also endorsed McCain very early.
August 10th, 2007 at 5:09 pm
One point that no one has made is that the second tier candidates are in serious trouble if they cannot make a better showing than McCain, Guiliani or F. Thompson. If the second tier candidates cannot beat one of those three candidates who are not actively soliciting votes in the ASP, then how can they credibly maintain that they can seriously contend in future votes that are fully contested? In other words, if Brownback, Huckabee and T. Thompson cannot beat Guiliani, McCain and F. Thompson when those three don’t show up and fight, they will not win when those three do show up and fight. Thus, I think the second tier candidates are finished if Guiliani, McCain or F. Thompson come in second.
August 10th, 2007 at 5:21 pm
Quick question . . . is Brownback opposed to the death penalty? I have had the impression from his latest Web attack on Romney that he is against the death penalty because of his pro-life/whole-life Catholicism. I understand that he has stated that his position on the death penalty has “evolved” to the point that he now generally opposes the death penalty. Am I correct in that regard? If so, I wonder if any “law and order” conservatives will part ways with Brownback over that issue.
Also, I know some prominent Catholics wrestle with matters of war to the point of pacifism because of their “culture of life” outlook? Would a President Brownback be reluctant to resort to military action because of his Catholic culture of life philosophy? Any thoughts?
August 10th, 2007 at 5:31 pm
Brownback is opposed to Capital Punishment except for severe crimes, he was stated this many times. So he is in support of capital punishment, but only for those crimes that are severe. And no he would not hesitate to send troops out to fight a war. He has also stated many times that we will be in a war against terrosism for a long time, it will not go away anytime soon. So yes he would be very tough in that aspect and would not be reluctant.
August 10th, 2007 at 5:50 pm
Actually Bryan, I do not think his position is that he allows capital punishment for severe crimes. I did some research following my post and found that he only supports capital punishment when society can no longer protect itself from the perpetrator. Of course, lifetime incarceration can provide such protection more often than not, so I do not know what the rare cases would be that would justify capital punishment in Brownback’s mind. I really do not think he would go so far as to say capital punishment is limited to severe crimes. That’s the status quo because capital punishment is not employed in non-severe crimes. So I have to believe that he is to the left of many conservatives on the death penalty. I just wish I had a clearer idea of when the death penalty would be acceptable to him. I am in Texas and I just do not think he would be comfortable with the Texas death penalty regime. I wonder how the death penalty issue would influence his Supreme Court appointments.
August 10th, 2007 at 6:58 pm
brownback is a flip flopper. he voted for amnesty before he voted against it. one issue candidates never win.
if he is so ‘pro life and ‘whole life” then why does he support capital punishment at all?
August 11th, 2007 at 3:39 am
[...] of it. It just might give Thompson and Brownback a leg up because of it. But I’ve heard rumors that Brownback (perhaps Thompson too) has spent all in doing so. It’s do or die time for [...]
August 11th, 2007 at 5:20 am
[...] Thompson and Brownback get a leg up on their other second-tier competitors. But I’ve heard rumors that Brownback (perhaps Thompson too) has spent all in doing so. It’s do or die time for [...]