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The conventional wisdom is that Romney will win the Ames Straw Poll tomorrow, so the question really becomes: by how much? To this end, there are a lot of people out there setting expectations — expectations that are incredibly important this year, perhaps moreso than any other Ames year.
For example, Rudy Giuliani claimed this morning that Mitt Romney ought to be able to win at least by an 8:1 margin over his closest opponent – and that he ought to garner at least 24,000 votes doing so. Romney’s campaign responded:
A Romney adviser scoffs at the gambit, calling it “hysterical.”
“This is the funniest thing I’ve ever seen,” observes the Romney source, pointing out that 24,000 votes would be “nearly four times more voters than” then-Gov. Bush won at Ames in 1999.
Bush got 7,418 votes.
Not to mention that only 23,000 people voted total in the 1999 Straw Poll. So Rudy is setting the bar impossibly high for Mitt; meanwhile, some Mitt supporters, like Hugh Hewitt, are setting the bar impossibly high for Mitt’s opponents:
If Senator Brownback or Governor Huckabee don’t topple Governor Romney at Ames, the pressure on them to bow out of the race will be huge, and the financial realities even larger.
No one believes Brownback or Huckabee need to take first in order to avoid calamity in this race. A second, or maybe even third, place finish for either of them would be a tremendous boost to their campaigns. Expectations for them have to be to place in the top three, not to place first.
So how big does Romney have to win? Tom Bevan over at RealClearPolitics seems to think he has to pull of a 20-point victory:
With Giuliani, Thompson, and McCain not actively participating, no one will be surprised if Romney wins by 20 or more points.
Some history lessons would be advisable before declaring what margin of victory will be “large enough”, however. In the 1999 straw poll, George Bush was leading the Iowa polls by more than 20 points going into Ames. He won the straw poll by 10%. In the 1995 straw poll, the margin of victory was 0%, as Dole and Gramm ended up tied at 24% apiece. Third place was held by Buchanan at 18% – so a 6-point spread between the top three candidates. And in 1987, Robertson ended up beating Dole by a margin of 10%.
So the largest margin of victory ever at a Straw Poll has been 10%. Even when the frontrunner in Iowa was leading by more than twice that in the polls, they ended up winning Ames by 10%. So I’d say realistically, Romney needs to put at least 10% between himself and whoever comes in second place. Anything less could be considered a speedbump to his campaign; anything more could be considered a bonus.
August 10th, 2007 at 5:25 pm
[...] post by MattC and software by Elliott [...]
August 10th, 2007 at 5:31 pm
It’s likely attendance will be down since Rudy and McCain are conceding Iowa and FDT isn’t a candidate yet.
August 10th, 2007 at 5:32 pm
I predict Romney won’t even win by a 2:1 margin. At the end of the day he’ll do well, but the hype around this is crazy. He won months ago when Giuliani, McCain and Thompson chose not to compete Romney has let up significantly since then, knowing it’s already his. It’s like winning a preliminary round of the 100m race; you let up at the end if you know you’ve got it, because anything more than a win is unnecessary. Romney understands this is just the first big test in his methodical march to the White House.
8:1 is a joke!
August 10th, 2007 at 6:55 pm
i think the expectation for romney are bad for him. i will be suprised if he wins by more than 10 percent. the expectation are unrealistic, so i think unless romney blows the rest out, which I don’t think he will given two of the candidates have used next to ALL of their resources on this ONE event.
the expectations have warped this to the point that I don’t think romney can mee them. if he does however, he will once again have proved me wrong and exceeded my expectations. If anybody can do it, he can.
August 10th, 2007 at 7:19 pm
So how much to Guiliani, McCain and Thompson have to win (as no-shows) to be considered valid no-show candidates? If Guiliani pulls 3%, McCain pulls 2% and Thompson pulls 4%, are the first two considered poor organizations and poor fundraisers?
August 10th, 2007 at 10:03 pm
MattC, just want to take a moment to thank you for your amazing ability to gather historical data. It’s cool to know we have experts like you here on this site. And I want to take an excuse to ask you if you are going to release the endorement chart sometimes soon
August 10th, 2007 at 11:00 pm
A 10% margin might be good in a straw poll when all of the top three (or four) candidates are participating, as in the past polls you cite. But only one of the top four is participating (if we include F. Thompson as a candidate), and none of Romney’s opponents in Ames are topping 10% in Iowa. So I would say he’d better win by at LEAST a 20% margin, considering that’s about his spread over his Ames opponents in Iowa now, and he has all the money he needs for buses, tickets, and BBQ.
Disclosure:
I am undecided between Brownback, Huckabee, and Paul. If one of them is left come the Illinois primary, I will vote for him.
August 11th, 2007 at 8:59 pm
So how many people were on each Brownback bus-15?