August 11, 2007
ROMNEY WINS AMES BY RECORD 13.4%
Here are the results:
- Romney - 31.5%
- Huckabee - 18.1%
- Brownback - 15.3%
- Tancredo - 13.7%
- Paul - 9.1%
- T Thompson - 7.3%
- F Thompson - 1.6%
- Giuliani - 1.3%
- Hunter - 1.2%
- McCain - 0.7%
- Cox - 0.2%
Despite absolutely lousy organization, Huckabee surprises with a strong second place showing. Say goodbye to Tommy Thompson. Also interesting: the bottom five were all under 2%.
[UPDATE: We, collectively as R4'08, were a little off on our prediction. We got the first three places correct, but thought Rudy would come in much stronger at 8.25% and 4th place. After that it kind of fell apart. 
The winner of the prediction contest was difficult to pick. Nobody chose the 11 in the correct order, but the person that came the closest (according to my editorial judgment!) is... Matt (not me, the other Matt). Matt correctly picked the top 6 finishers in the right order - an impressive feat to be sure - and with pretty accurate percentages as to boot. Congratulations, Matt!]
http://race42008.com/2007/08/11/romney-wins-ames-by-record-134/trackback/
August 11th, 2007 at 9:26 pm
Is that really the biggest margin since the poll started?
Anyway, where does B-back go from here? Does he stay in, or get out?
August 11th, 2007 at 9:33 pm
MattC,
Who won the pre-poll you were keeping track of?
Certainly was not me..
August 11th, 2007 at 9:34 pm
Very impressive for Huck, my favorite 2nd tier guy. Brownback will stay in. . .this is a crusade for him so I don’t see him leaving anytime soon. As for the bottom 5, three didnt show and Iowans don’t take kindly to that so no surprise there. I really thought Tommy T would do better than 7.3%.
August 11th, 2007 at 9:35 pm
Sounds like Sam is definitely staying in…
Brownback tried to paint his third-place showing as cause for celebration and momentum for his campaign
“For running no advertising, no television, no radio, and to come in close to second and in third place — that is fabulous and a great tribute to this campaign,” he told supporters after the results were announced.
Brownback, who finished about 400 votes and 3% behind Huckabee, maintained a happy outlook. “The results today are this is a ticket to the caucuses,” he said. “Iowa’s a field of dreams … and I’ve still got the dream.”
August 11th, 2007 at 9:36 pm
If you’re asking me-he should get out. I don’t think he will though; he’ll probably hang on until gets 5th or 6th in the actual Iowa vote.
August 11th, 2007 at 9:36 pm
It’s a good day to be a Romney fan. Breaking the record is a pretty sweet deal. I have to say that I am happy for the Huckster. I like the guy and I am so glad he beat Brownbackstabber. Looks like T. Thompson and possibly Duncan Hunter will drop out. Any other opinions as to who may drop out?
August 11th, 2007 at 9:36 pm
[...] post by MattC and software by Elliott [...]
August 11th, 2007 at 9:36 pm
What was Huckabee’s response to his own 2nd place finish?
August 11th, 2007 at 9:37 pm
Sam needs to do the right thing…nah nah nah…hey hey hey…Goodbye…cya Switchback…
August 11th, 2007 at 9:38 pm
Romney shoots par. No way he “sets a record” margin if Guiliani or McCain are there.
Huckabee gets a new lease on life. May start to consolidate the Religious Right.
Brownback takes a hit. He pours his guts and what money he has into this, and trails his direct competitor- who shows up with not much more than a speech.
August 11th, 2007 at 9:38 pm
Duncan Hunter got less votes than Ron Paul? Does he get a recount, lol?
Congrats to Huckabee; I’ve had him pegged as somebody’s running mate for a while now.
August 11th, 2007 at 9:39 pm
hmmmmm. . .Romney/Huckabee ‘08?
August 11th, 2007 at 9:44 pm
If Huckabee can consolidate the religious right not attached to a top tier candidate, and then make a deal with Romney, they will both be in pretty good spots.
August 11th, 2007 at 9:44 pm
A lot of Brownback’s supporters are going to switch to Romney and Huckabee even if Brownback stays in the race. After the efforts he made falling behind Huckabee discredits his ability to win Iowa in January.
He is likely running to establish his credentials for another run in the future or to jockey for VP spot. He certainly can’t claim to be the only real pro-lifer.
August 11th, 2007 at 9:47 pm
I knew somebody would speculate that if Rudy & McCain were there Romney wouldn’t have won by as much, but there is no proof of that-it’s baseless. I think the lesson here is if you want to break Romney’s record victory at Ames, then the way to do it is dominate so much that you scare candidates away.
August 11th, 2007 at 9:50 pm
Brownback is the big loser and Huckabee is the big winner. I’m very pleased with this and more pleased with Mitt’s record percentage and winning margin. What a great day!
August 11th, 2007 at 9:53 pm
“A lot of Brownback’s supporters are going to switch to Romney and Huckabee”
So, econ, how much of Brownback’s 1% in the polls will go to Romney, and how much will go to Huckabee?
August 11th, 2007 at 9:57 pm
Think JS. I’m considering the Iowa Caucus in January.
Outside of Iowa, obviously Brownback isn’t relevant. In Iowa he was.
August 11th, 2007 at 10:00 pm
Romney/Huckabee ‘08 I would be very happy about. Huckabee deserved second, because he’s got heart. I was so giddy when Brownback was announced before Huckabee, I was like, I knew it! I knew he was bluffing! Ha! Brownback had 100 busses with 20 or so people on each, eh? Life is wonderful. I wish you all could have been at the speech he gave today at Hilton, it was sweet!
Romney ‘08
August 11th, 2007 at 10:02 pm
I’m only joking, econ.
August 11th, 2007 at 10:02 pm
Congrats to Huckabee. While liking Brownback’s stances socially, after having read some of the vitriol on blogs that support him I was very turned off. Invoking the name of a soon to be saint (Mother Theresa) in his stump speeches does not gel with some of the “go to hell” Romney stuff I have encountered on some very short trips to blogs for him.
Particularly one that extrapolates his dog’s name of Marley to Bob Marley and then goes on to, in many follow ups, presume the connection and then condemn the American hating, drug happy candidate to hell.
I kid you not. Senator Brownback…You may stay in or out but if you stay in, please check up on how your over zealous followers are making you look real bad to Christians and especially Catholics.
August 11th, 2007 at 10:03 pm
If Rudy and McCain had attended, Romney would have had 300 buses at the event. This is why they stayed home. Romney’s Ames victory is legitimate.
August 11th, 2007 at 10:06 pm
Can’t wait to see the new Iowa polls destined to come out in the next couple weeks.
August 11th, 2007 at 10:07 pm
yeah i dont think rudy or mccain would have affected this race all that much. . .remember theres a reason they werent there: they werent all that popular in iowa to begin with (esp mccain).
August 11th, 2007 at 10:09 pm
Will we get new power rankings next week?
August 11th, 2007 at 10:15 pm
I told you so. The real story tonight is Huckabee and everybody knows it!
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/08/11/romney-is-pleased-as-punch/
August 11th, 2007 at 10:19 pm
Anyone know the history of Ames regarding where the winner ended up the following November? (Sorry if this has already been covered here at R4′08 and I missed it.)
August 11th, 2007 at 10:20 pm
RE:21 Just for the record, I’m not a Romney supporter and do not think he can win the nomination. Rudy running an effectively pro-life campaign is the best I see as viable, though not perfect. He does have many other proven conservative attributes, especially coming out of NYC, that are admirable.
For all the so-con purists out there, if the chances of obtaining your goal with respect to reducing/eliminating abortion becomes clouded by your sole purist intentions, than I suspect many of you may not be seeing the forest but for the trees.
August 11th, 2007 at 10:22 pm
Impressive win for Romney considering the expectations and that every candidate was after him. Hard to deny his strength among the base.
Huckabee is a big winner here to. To have no money and no organization but to come out so big, how did he do that?
I see the rest as over with. if they don’t get out they will just do down from here.
This is exciting. the two best guys won. Romney won convincingly. and I agree that the win is no less big for romney because the others weren’t there. they left with their tales tucked between their legs. Most say that Romney’s Iowa organizatin is like none they have ever seen.
He is impressive.
August 11th, 2007 at 10:28 pm
“‘I knew somebody would speculate that if Rudy & McCain were there Romney wouldn’t have won by as much, but there is no proof of that-it’s baseless. ”
Paleeeeeez.
As proof I submit that Guiliani is 8 points ahead of Huckabee in the lastest U of I poll. He’s 6 points ahead of Huckabee in the latest ABC/ Washington Post poll, and actually ahead of Romney (and 21 points ahead of Huckabee) in the outlier American Research Group poll. Couple that with the millions more cash he has than Huckabee, and I think it is VERY safe to say that Romney doesn’t beat Guiliani by as much as he beat Huckabee.
Look, I like Huckabee, and will never vote for Guiliani (even against Hillary if it comes to that), but facts are facts. To think that Romney beats Guiliani and F. Thompson by as much as he beat Huckabee and Brownback is to live in Romney fantasyland.
August 11th, 2007 at 10:28 pm
I’d love to see the field reduced to McCain, Romney, Fred, Giuliani, Huckabee and Paul. With those six every Republican would have someone they could support in the primary. Rudy and McCain for the moderates/liberals, Romney and Fred for the center-right crowd, Huckabee for the populists, and Paul for the libertarians.
August 11th, 2007 at 10:29 pm
Romney spent 900 bucks per vote!!! Only 15,000 people showed up… what a joke
August 11th, 2007 at 10:31 pm
[...] was predictable for a first-string versus third-string matchup with former Governor Mitt Romney rolling up the rest of the field with store-bought [...]
August 11th, 2007 at 10:31 pm
“If Rudy and McCain had attended, Romney would have had 300 buses at the event.”
If he could truly have done that, he’s an idiot for not doing it. He could have effectively ended 7 other candidacies tonight, and we wouldn’t all be talking about Huckabee!
August 11th, 2007 at 10:42 pm
See, no evidence whatsoever. You make so many baseless assumptions, that it is ridiculous. If you’re going to look at the polls, then look at the fact that Romney kills everybody else in the Iowa polls, and he’s more organized. Giuliani & McCain got less than 2 percent of the vote! On their name alone they should have gotten around 10 Percent-they’re done in Iowa.
August 11th, 2007 at 10:49 pm
After reading a few posts elsewhere, I cannot help but wondering if Huckabee will replace Fred as the “conservative messiah” especially in the south? I think he will grab quite a few points from everyone (especially Fred and Rudy) in SC and other south states. I think the race will end up between Rudy, Mitt and Huckabee.
August 11th, 2007 at 10:49 pm
Richard P is right.
August 11th, 2007 at 10:50 pm
SGS, that will be tough since Huck is a big government nanny stater.
August 11th, 2007 at 10:56 pm
Huckabee had a great day. He saw me wearing my “Vote for Mitt” shirt while I was watching him jam with his band and shot me a nice smile.
However, the people that are saying that there was “no organization” for Huckabee aren’t telling the whole truth. He did bus some people in. The bigger story is that there were A LOT of “FAIR TAX” people there . . . and they organized buses to bring in supporters. Huckabee is the biggest proponent of the “FAIR TAX” and I’m sure he captured most of those people bused in by them.
He’s also the guy with recent good press, but no reason to have torn him down . . . until now. He will now face a good deal more scrutiny and will get some negative press and attacks from rival campaigns.
August 11th, 2007 at 10:56 pm
Hey, Congratulations Matt!
YOU WON! Good picks.
August 11th, 2007 at 10:57 pm
By the way, remember a month ago, some of us commenters went all over when Romney team announced they are stepping back a bit off from Ames? Mostly, those nayers would claim it was because Romney cannot afford it. It looks more likely that he really did understand the business environment that was Ames better than us all. So, yes, Richard P is corect in that he would go even further if Rudy and McCain had stayed in, but he did not have to do it.
August 11th, 2007 at 11:02 pm
As a Romney supporter I’m VERY pleased with the results.
Romney pulled out the biggest margin of victory in the Ames Straw Poll while being the candidate that ALL THE OTHER CANDIDATES KNEW WOULD WIN. That means that he’s been the major focus of EVERYBODY’S attacks. It’s hard to win with a huge target on your chest . . . but Romney did that handily.
And before anyone says . . . “Well he just ‘bought votes’ to win it”, figure me this:
What person would “jump at the great deal” of giving up an entire Saturday during peak vacation season, getting up before 7AM, waiting on a bus to take a 2-4 hr bus ride EACH WAY on a very hot and sweltering day (the heat index was far over 100 degrees), all for a T-shirt, a $35 entry ticket, some music, and a meal? You see, short of unknown $100 bills slipped into everyone else’s pockets but mine, there is no way for Romney or any other candidate to “pay for votes” at the Ames Straw Poll. You have to have actual Iowans who are actually motivated enough for your candidacy to go through a long and difficult day.
August 11th, 2007 at 11:03 pm
“See, no evidence whatsoever. You make so many baseless assumptions, that it is ridiculous. If you’re going to look at the polls, then look at the fact that Romney kills everybody else in the Iowa polls, and he’s more organized.”
I think the fact that we are discussing the Ames poll means that we all accept that polls mean something- maybe even scientific polls, such as those I referenced. So your contention is that a pay-in-fundraiser- straw poll is incredibly meaningful, but a scientific poll (the kind that is constantly analyzed here) is not? And you further contend that Guiliani would have fared no better than Huckabee had he participated? And that to suggest otherwise is a “baseless assumption?”
Are you kidding?
Believe me, Guiliani is the LAST Republican I would want to see nominated, but c’mon. Get real.
If you’re curious, here is a link that explains the basis for my baseless assumption:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html
August 11th, 2007 at 11:06 pm
Hey Matt . . . got any “hot Stock picks?”
August 11th, 2007 at 11:10 pm
I am shocked by the low turnout….
Mitt spend 3 million dollars… divided bye 4500 votes… = $666.66 per vote….
August 11th, 2007 at 11:10 pm
“I think the race will end up between Rudy, Mitt and Huckabee.”
I wish that were so, as long as Huckabee won, but the fact is Huckabee isn’t raising the money, and doesn’t have the organization to make that happen. And I don’t think one straw poll (about which maybe 1% of Americans give a rip) is going to change that. Sure he’ll get some press, and maybe a little bump in the polls, but Ames isn’t going to increase his fundraising by 20 fold, which is what needs to happen.
I hope I’m overly pessimistic, and Mike proves me wrong, but I think some of us in our enthusiasm (either for Huckabee or Romney) or really overblowing the significance of Ames.
Do you guys remember how well Phil Gramm did in Ames in ‘95? That was a year when all the big dogs participated, and he didn’t even see the actual caucus.
August 11th, 2007 at 11:18 pm
“Giuliani & McCain got less than 2 percent of the vote! On their name alone they should have gotten around 10 Percent-they’re done in Iowa.”
Actually, total war doesn’t even begin until their ads hit the airwaves. If I understand correctly, Romney has had Iowa TV all to himself so far. Obviously that will change between now and January. So you can’t say the battle’s over when the other side is simply keeping their powder dry.
August 11th, 2007 at 11:35 pm
Gamecock, oh I know Huckabee is a super nanny. But then, people do like Fred because, ummm… let’s see… what is he about, anyone? In all seriousness, according to a few articles, people are still looking for a social conservative candidate, and you cannot get a better one than Huckabee. So, those soc-cons who have gone for Fred now have the second choice, especially if Huckabee does get some more contribitions. Unfortunately, I personally think he will drive the fis-cons and def-cons away as Rudy does with soc-cons. Not a good candidate to bring all three groups together.
August 11th, 2007 at 11:37 pm
TV ADS DON’T GET PEOPLE TO A STRAW POLL!!!
Sorry for the caps . . . but both Huckabee and Brownback have made comments implying that they would have done much better if they had ads up . . . sorry folks.
Ads can help in statewide polling for some “softer” support and I do believe that this has bolstered Romney’s numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire. But, repeat after me, “TV spots do not translate into Straw Poll Votes”
Rudy’s been hitting the radio airways hard here in Iowa . . . didn’t seem to make ANYONE turn out to vote for him, eh?
August 12th, 2007 at 12:04 am
[...] 2: Some disturbing math: Mitt spent 3 million dollars… divided by 4500 votes… = $666.66 per [...]
August 12th, 2007 at 12:11 am
I have to agree with you Jeff (#49). The ads probably helped Romney since he had low name recognition, but the others - Huck, Rudy, Brownback - have solid recognition among those who attended Ames. Huck’s impressive 2nd place and Brownback’s disasterous 3rd say much more about their organization and actual support than it does about a lack of advertising.
August 12th, 2007 at 12:18 am
How predictable that Rudy folks remind us of what might have happened if there guy had been in. He knew the way Ames is played and knew he couldnt compete with Romney and decided to stay home, to downplay its meaning. What really happened though is that the IA GOP raised much less money, and I think IA wont soon forgive him for bowing out. Sure he is doing great nationally and in the big states, but the IA 1st (while foolish) is very, very important to these people. I dont think that once he decides he *wants* to try in IA, they will forgive him for not campaigning there as often and for skipping their once a decade fundraiser. If I were Rudy, I pull a McCain and write off IA now. The more time and money he spends there, the more he throws away. I think Mitt has a very strong hold in IA, and Rudy’s efforts wont be enough in the end.
August 12th, 2007 at 12:22 am
Iowa- Thanks for the math lesson. Now tell me how much Bush spent and for how many votes. Duh, thats how Ames works. Rudy can decide he wants to try and win IA in the fall, but I think it will be too little, too late.
Ditto for NH, where Mitt is just as organized. The ads, the staff, its proximity to Mass, and an IA win will help him that much more in NH. I see Mitt being 2-0, and the rest of the field going 0-2.
August 12th, 2007 at 12:31 am
Actually, I think that the Brownback supporters are bringing up the $666 number, because to them, it is utter verification that Romney is the Great Satan.
And no one knows how much Mitt spent (and advertising dollars shouldn’t be counted because TV ads are a horrible strategy for Straw Polls (or else everyone would have found a way to do at least some of that).
Also, Mitt got 4516 votes . . . so they’ve had to round it off to get the Demonic undertones.
I think Rudy (and any candidate that could afford to) would pay up to a $1000/vote if it meant winning the Ames Straw Poll. The sour grapes get old quick.
August 12th, 2007 at 12:44 am
The Ron Paul freaks are alive and well. See this comment thread for a cheap and sad laugh. Cyclone Conservatives does not deserve this abuse.
August 12th, 2007 at 1:22 am
“The Ron Paul freaks are alive and well. See this comment thread for a cheap and sad laugh. Cyclone Conservatives does not deserve this abuse.”
Support for a candidate? I missed something. I think the first bit of abuse was from NJBlogger harping on someone who posted “Ron Paul 2008!” I don’t see a problem. They defended themselves. Sure, there are a couple of people talking about conspiracies, but then again… there are Rudy defenders who state the he’s a great anti-terrorism 9/11 hero. There are loons on both sides.
August 12th, 2007 at 1:30 am
To echo #25, Brian, I definately think a shuffling of the middle pack in the rankings is in order. Huckabee deserves 6th place, if not 5th just off of relative strength to Brownback. The only problem I see is if it doesn’t carry over to other regions/nationally, but the media exposure should be more than enough to give his campaign a shot in the arm.
Brownback is easily turning into the next McCain: failed expectations, imploding campaign, just plain and simply quixotic.
August 12th, 2007 at 3:42 am
Maybe the new Romney campaign pin can be a $20 bill paper-clipped to a jacket lapel.
August 12th, 2007 at 5:48 am
Did I miss something or did Gingrich get no votes? Weren’t write-ins allowed in Ames? I can’t believe no one voted for Newt if they could write him in.
August 12th, 2007 at 7:13 am
I’m not really worried about Rudy as a result of this straw, so there is really no malice or sour grapes.
required. Though I’m really happy about Huckabee getting second place— hopefully this result will get
his campaign to where it should be, kudos to Team Romney also … good result, like it or not.
August 12th, 2007 at 8:57 am
I’m a bit torn over Huckabee’s performance. On the one hand, I’m thrilled that the doomsday predictions of a 2nd place performance by Paul didn’t come to pass. On the other hand, this gives his campaign a new lease on life and I was hoping he would drop out and campaign for the Arkansas Senate race in 2008. The Republican Party’s chances of winning back the Senate just got a lot smaller today.
August 12th, 2007 at 8:58 am
Nice job Matt. I’ll be looking forward to your NH pick.
August 12th, 2007 at 10:06 am
Write ins were not allowed…Newt was not on the ballot and should not run for president.
August 12th, 2007 at 10:14 am
This is a big win for Huckabee!
He could be a good VP choice.
Maybe Rudy/Huckabee or Romney/Huckabee.
August 12th, 2007 at 11:06 pm
Not to bash Cox…but I’m surprised that he got that many protest votes.
At any rate — this is huge for Huckabee — the man with little to no organization pulling off a second place win. This is also a massive slap in the face to Brownback who spent all of his campaign coffers on this to come in…second.