Query: What do Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Fred Thompson all have in common?
Answer: All of them are uneasy fits for social conservatives for a litany of reasons, and all support a foreign policy chalked full of interventionism, generally centered around some modified or abbreviated form of the Bush Doctrine.
That leaves a major vacuum in the GOP race for a candidate who can appeal to both so-cons and foreign policy realists, along with perhaps the Buchananite isolationists who were a major factor in Pat’s New Hampshire victory in 1996. These groups were presumably voting Republican long before the South Park Conservatives and the NeoCons, the current oligarchs of the party if the field’s frontrunners are indicative of the present state of the party base. Such a vacuum would provide a tremendous opportunity for a candidate able to unite disaffected old guard Republicans, but up until now, this group has been split between a bevy of niche candidates, none of whom have been able to appeal to the disaffected types in total. Thanks to Ames, the dynamics of the GOP race may be about to change.
Soren Dayton has put together a comprehensive post on Mike Huckabee’s foreign policy record and finds that Huckabee’s domestic views aren’t the only thing out of sync with today’s GOP. While Huck’s long record of cultural conservatism and fiscal moderation bordering on outright liberalism has been well documented, little is known about his foreign policy views. According to Soren, Huckabee appears to be carrying the banner of foreign policy realism, with an anti-trade stance and an opposition to immigration included for good measure. Money quote:
David (Adesnik), who might even accept the label “neoconservative,” finds this troubling. Frankly, I do too, on a certain level. While I wouldn’t accept the “export our form of government” language, it seems clear to me that the United States has a clear role in the world. Some of this is because we are still the strongest superpower, with the strongest economy, the strongest military, and the most dynamic popular culture (which conservatives here and abroad hate)
On a deeper level, I hear in Huckabee an instinct towards the isolationism that Eisenhower fought against. For example:
* “don’t think it’s the job of the United States to export our form of government”
* “secure our borders”
* “make sure that jobs come back to this country rather than disappear from this country” (nevermind the updated “lump of labor fallacy that seems implicit. Where is he on trade?)Now, I believe that there is a lot of isolationism in the GOP. This was a driving force for Pat Buchanan, and it is certainly not an accident that George W. Bush included language that Pat Buchanan attacked his father with. Much of the Ron Paul energy can be linked to this. And Duncan Hunter’s campaign could be predicated on that too. There is also a tremendous amount of isolationism amongst the Democrats. The response to NAFTA and trade, especially when combined with a deep anti-war sentiment can be read that way.
In any case, Huckabee could try to meld a social conservative message to an anti-globalist energy within the party.
Or to put it another way, what if Huckabee can do what none of the other second-tiers can? What if he can unite the Brownbackites, Paulites, Hunterites, and Tancredoites under the banner of a comprehensive platform that is culturally conservative, anti-trade, anti-globalism, and anti-immigration? In so doing, Huckabee would accomplish two things. First, he would clear the field of the remaining lower-tier candidates, consolidating their support for himself and propelling himself into the first tier. Secondly, Huckabee would establish himself as the clear alternative to Rudy McRompson for Republicans who dislike the frugal, secular, internationalist strain of the GOP frontrunners this time around. If anything could shake the GOP race up, it’s the presence of a candidate who opposes things like the Bush Doctrine or immigration without coming across as a bit mad. Before Ames, we didn’t have a high profile candidate that fit the bill. Now we do.
August 14th, 2007 at 9:23 pm
I think what everyone is forgetting about the Iowa Straw Poll…. is that if Rudy, Fred and John would have competed, Huckabee would have finished 5th….
He isn’t a threat to the big 4… but will be a great VP choice.
August 14th, 2007 at 9:27 pm
I just wanted to compliment the combination of all of the “Big Four” candidates’ names. Very impressive. I didn’t think there was room for Thompson in there. Good work.
August 14th, 2007 at 9:28 pm
Problem there is on immigration up untill recenlty he took the Bush stance, and I think is like rudy (Being tuff than in the past on the boarder, but still is for some form of Path to Legalize but banning everyone that commited another crime to be put on the path.) I mean he claim last year that Immigration was a way for Republicans to make up for Civil Rights.
August 14th, 2007 at 9:29 pm
Thanks
Good to see we have a female reader. I think, other than Kavon’s wife, you may be the only one!
August 14th, 2007 at 9:38 pm
[...] post by DaveG and software by Elliott [...]
August 14th, 2007 at 9:42 pm
With70+ percent opposing our misguided adventure in Iraq.
All but one of the republican candidates will be ground to scrapple
by the Democrats. If that candidate is forced into a third party run,
it would cement the defeat of any of the neo-con Republicans for sure.
August 14th, 2007 at 9:54 pm
Hey DaveG-
I’d always heard Huck criticized for being “open borders” and liberal on immigration. A
story Huck likes to tell is how as Governor he told people who complained about immigrants taking
their jobs to show him what job they couldn’t get – and he never had anyone come to him.
August 14th, 2007 at 9:57 pm
DaveG-
Are you becoming the new resident Huckabee supporter?
August 14th, 2007 at 9:59 pm
Huckabee does have 3X the experience of Romney and I can see him building support
Quite frankly, I don’t see how Romney is more appealing to social conservatives in any plausible way
Huckabee’s record on abortion and marriage and other social issues is rock solid and longstanding. I don’t really think there’s any argument a Romney supporter could make that he’s better on abortion or social issues than Huckabee from a socon perspective
Also, Huckabee is Southern which gives him a more natural affinity with the evangelical base of the party
Furthermore, he’s more likeable and comes across as more the everyman type. His weight loss story is inspirational. He wins the likeablity contest with Romney
Most importantly, he’s an honest-to-God Baptist minister and the chances of a Mormon being more popular and appealing more to evangelicals and conservatives in the South than Friar Huck are virtually zero.
Huck also has a leg on Fred as he isn’t divorced, isn’t married to a 25 yrs younger wife, didn’t father a child out of wedlock, didn’t lobby for a pro-abortion group and then lie about it when caught and isn’t on record as being pro choice in the 1st trimester as Fred is.
OTOH, he’s only raised 1.3M through 2 quarters. It’ll be interesting to see what happens.
From Rudy’s view, he has to like the 3 of them fighting it out for the social conservatives and splitting the pie.
If Rudy can get a majority of the liberals and moderates and independent and pull even 15-20% of social conservatives, he’ll be in very good shape.
August 14th, 2007 at 10:47 pm
I don’t see any reason to believe Huckabee is a foreign policy realist. To be sure, he’s not a neo-con. But, it’s not as though there’s only two options here. Democrats are certainly neither, as a general rule. And Huckabee sounds alot closer to the things Democrats say on foreign policy, then to anything Morgenthau or Kissinger ever said. And isolationism, if that’s what you suspect Huckabee is sounding out, isn’t realism either. They’re not necessarily in conflict, but they’re hardly identical. And Huckabee has zero credibility on immigration. Frankly, I think that rather then concocting complicated definitions to describe Huckabee, to fit preconceived ideals of “niches” in the Republican Party, we ought to allow a far simpler definition to do the job. Huckabee’s a Democrat who happens to be against abortion, gays, and gun control. That sums it up fairly cleanly.
August 15th, 2007 at 12:09 am
Matt, you are just not up to speed with Huckabee, and it shows.
August 15th, 2007 at 12:30 am
Matt IS NOT up to speed on the Gov…94 tax cuts are not the DEMOCRAT way…
August 15th, 2007 at 1:07 am
Jim (#9) the difference between Romney & Huckabee is this:
- Romney has deeper contacts, and better organisational skills.
- Olympic celebrity (not quite 9/11, but still worth something).
August 15th, 2007 at 4:09 am
And I beg to differ that there are only 2 female readers! I am a regular reader and semi-regular commenter!
Go, Huck, go!
August 15th, 2007 at 10:16 am
Huckabee might not have the celebrity of Mitt but he has something even better.
Genuine Authenticity. And his contacts are deeper than you think, however he hasn’t paid them all
to join his team. Huckabee also hasn’t had to give his campaign 9 million or more dollars to keep it going. He is doing it the old fashion way I guess. Hardwork and retail politics. Given the straw pollnumbers if Huckabee had even spent just $250,000 instead of 100,000 he would have beat Romney, and still spent less than 10% of what Mitt did.
I am not saying that Mitt is a bad guy, but Huckabee is a REAL guy with real ideas that people want from a leader.
He is not scripted, he is original, and he has a command of the issues like no one else. The fact that he can immediately answer a question without hesitation tells me that he knows where he stands everyday and that it has been consistent and not set up for pandering for the group in front of him. I like Mike because he is
a proven leader who gets things done without compromising his core beliefs.
August 15th, 2007 at 1:01 pm
I won’t forget all you haters when you eventually hitch your wagons to the Huckabee bandwagon, but I will welcome you anyway.
Paul S
August 15th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
Huckabee got a lot of help in Iowa from the Fair Tax Committee. They hired buses and spent money for Huckabee that didn’t show up in Huckabee’s campaign spending.
He also benefited from quiet support from Rudy Giuliani who was hoping to embarrass Romney.
The straw poll did not push Huckabee into the 1st tier of candidates. It merely keeps him alive. Without a strong showing there he would have to have withdrawn from the race.
The Rasmussen tracking poll has Huckabee moving up one point, to 4% nationwide, since the straw poll.
The only way Huckabee can bring the realists and “isolationists” into his camp is to support withdrawal from Iraq and disavow any plans to bomb Iran.
August 15th, 2007 at 1:55 pm
I think Huckabee could merge the Brownbackites and Hunterites under his flag, but I think it would be very difficult for him to get the support of the Tancredoites. They are a very vehemently anti-immigration crowd, and I don’t think they feel Huckabee is good enough on the issue. Also, there’s no way Huckabee is getting the Paulites. Alot of Paul’s supporters are just there because he’s the only clearly anti-war candidate. That’s the driving force behind Ron Paul’s support–anti-Iraq War sentiment.
August 15th, 2007 at 5:00 pm
Rob,
I think you are just tying to downplay the significance of Huckabee’s showing. I doubt very seriously
that Rudy had his people go in and support Huckabee. That is part of a whisper campaign that was started by Romeny guys so it would be as bad since Huckabee was gaining momentum. Romney’s people are great at this sort
of whispering. They did it at the beginning when they started saying Huckabee was going to be on
Romney’s national committee, and when they told people who were looking to back Huckabee that he was not running.
You can give credit to whoever you want to give it to, but this fact remains, Huckabee is the only
one who had a special interest group campaign against him in Iowa and he did well inspite of that spending far less than Romney. Romney spent twice as much on the consultant for the logistics for straw poll on site than Huckabee spent on the entire deal including tickets. Bottom line is Huckabee is not a second tier candidate any more and Romeny can’t beat him when it comes to delivering a positive message people want to hear.