GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Sen. McCain picks up some big endorsements in New Hampshire:
U.S. Senator John McCain’s presidential campaign today announced the Social Conservatives for McCain steering committee in the Granite State.
State Representative Maureen Mooney, a third term lawmaker from Merrimack, will co-chair the steering committee along with Pam Colantuono of Manchester. Mooney is a well-respected and influential voice in the social conservative movement in New Hampshire and has led McCain’s conservative outreach efforts since March.
Colantuono is a notable evangelical activist who chaired President Bush’s evangelical outreach efforts for his 2004 reelection.
“John McCain has the most consistent conservative record of any candidate for president,” said Mooney. “Whether it is his 25 year voting record in support of life, his strong support for the Second Amendment, or his commitment to the preservation of the traditional family, John McCain has always stood firm for the causes most important to New Hampshire’s conservative community.”
Colantuono added, “John McCain has been with us on conservative issues as a matter of principle, and we know that he will not yield his principles for any convenience or to any political calculation.”
“I am very pleased to have the support of these community leaders who are respected among fellow conservatives,” said Senator John McCain. “I am deeply grateful for their support and advice and look forward to working with them as we strive to return the Republican Party to our conservative ideals of fiscal responsibility, limited government, and respect for the dignity of every individual.”
These pickups will surely strengthen McCain’s chances in New Hampshire.
As has been well publicized, he has essentially abandoned a national campaign in favor of focusing on the early states (Iowa, NH, and SC). He and campaign manager Rick Davis have made clear that their goal is to win 2 out of the 3 states.
I’ve long thought that McCain even at his best would have difficulties winning the Iowa Caucuses and that he should try to place a strong 2nd place to use as a spring broad for New Hampshire. Last month’s campaign meltdown also claimed much of his top notch Iowa team and in all honesty, he appears to have essentially abdicated the state to Romney.
Given that Michigan has moved up to January 15th, the primary calendar has become even more compressed. Michigan makes a much juicier target for McCain than Iowa does due to his latent support from his 2000 win there. The same goes for New Hampshire. This is likely the only possible route for McCain to undertake at this point, but it is a very risky strategy all the same. If Romney wins big Iowa, he could use that to capitalize in New Hampshire (where he already leads in the polls and enjoys the regional advantage) and Michigan (where he was born and grew up).
If nothing else, McCain is still going strong in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Attendance and most importantly fundraising are up over last month when they took a sharp drop over his support for comprehensive immigration reform. While Rudy leads nationally and Romney leads in the early states, history shows us that everything can change in an instant.
In 2000, prior to the New Hampshire primary, Bush led McCain 52% to 32% down in South Carolina. Immediately following his huge NH primary win, McCain managed to erase Bush’s lead in SC and in fact led Bush 44% to 40% (of course, Bush and Karl Rove worked feverishly during the three weeks between the NH and SC primaries to erase McCain’s lead). The big question heading into the 2008 primaries is what effect will the compressed calender have on the race?
One things for sure, it’ll be a wild ride until February 5th.
August 22nd, 2007 at 8:06 pm
Wow…. bad news for Romney
August 22nd, 2007 at 8:10 pm
Iowa,
how is a state steering committee bad news for Romney?
Do you think Romney thought no one in the state would endorse anyone else and no other candidate would campaign there?
August 22nd, 2007 at 8:11 pm
Only if you think a few endorsements are going to make people stop supporting Romney.
August 22nd, 2007 at 8:45 pm
I was wondering where you’ve been recently, LJ? It seems that your presence here is directly proportional to the amount of good news McCain has.
In both New Hampshire and South Carolina, McCain is fighting for 3rd place. In NH, he is trying to fend off Fred Thompson and in SC, Romney is almost tied with him. Also, his momentum everywhere is downwards. We’ll see if endorsements and low cost targeted ads will mitigate his sinking status.
August 22nd, 2007 at 8:47 pm
When recalling Sen. McCain’s defeat in S. Carolina back in 2000, don’t forget that he was busy shooting himself in the foot pissing off Evangelicals in the name of “straight talk”.
August 22nd, 2007 at 8:48 pm
This is why I think Huckabee & Brownback are toast. With McCain & Giuliani in the race, they’ll be lucky to break double digits.
Romney rules NH. It seems as if McCain now has somewhat of an early primary state plan like Romney verses a national campaign like Rudy. Problem for McCain is: Romney is richer, better organized, and focused 100% on his game plan verses McCain who still has to vote in the Senate.
McCain sure needs this endorsements. He sure needs a lot of things. It will be interesting to see if this translates in to any bump in the NH polls.
August 22nd, 2007 at 8:58 pm
McCain and Romney have been the only candidates in the race that have put much stress on organization. Romney’s had a hiccup or two around the first of the year, but has been running like a top ever since. McCain has had many problems with his. He has reshuffled his top group more than Fred Thompson has, and has had to lay off quite a few lower personel due to lower than expected fund-raising efforts.
McCain essentially told the Iowa GOP to take a long walk off a short pier when he ditched the Ames straw poll. He HAS to concentrate on NH. He has no choice.
August 22nd, 2007 at 9:55 pm
Hello, all-
As always, from the new-media publisher who “finds much to admire about Senator McCain’s candidacy”:
I understand that LJ is a McCain supporter. I agree with him that Iowa is a lost cause for McCain, due to the poor poll numbers and what LJ himself described as “the gutting of the staff” in the Hawkeye State, and that would have been true even if Michigan hadn’t decided to jump up.
I would assert that the Michigan shuffle is an unqualified break for McCain, from the political gods. Michigan allows non-Republicans to vote and he won it in 2000. It also creates another battlefield and thus dilutes the effect of his finish in Iowa.
Per Romney’s NH lead - it should be noted that not only is Romney well known there (unlike most of America), but he’s the only one running ads there.
Comments are welcome.
August 22nd, 2007 at 10:02 pm
McCain will probably be out of the race before the voting even begins. He doesn’t have any money to run a campaign.
August 22nd, 2007 at 10:41 pm
Marksal, he does not have to have some cash to run. You need cash to increase the familiarity of your name. McCain already has the national ID. You only need to have enough signatures in each state to get your name on the ballot, which I believe he has done. So, McCain can pretty much coast to the end without spending a cent. However, this race is getting hotter in that the frontrunner candidates are trying to out-shout each other to grab the attnetion of a voter or two. McCain can became lost in the waves. Hence, he just need a few thousands here, some more thousands over here to keep people aware that he’s still in the race.
August 22nd, 2007 at 10:57 pm
marK,
Also remember that much of McCain’s impressive organization in South Carolina and New Hampshire survived the meltdown. And as Mitt Romney surely knows, organization is a long term investment that doesn’t really come into play until the voting starts. So while he may have dropped in the polls in those states, he is better organized then anyone other than Romney.
Tower,
That’s an excellent point about the Michigan open primary helping McCain. Even taking into account his losses among independents for support of the war, they are still his main base of support. While Rudy leads in the state, it remains to be seen whether he will actually compete in the state. As far as I know, he has virtually no organizational capacity there. Michigan will more than likely come down to a battle between McCain and Romney.
SGS,
Yup. McCain still remains a very respected figure across the country and within the media. On Monday, he did a full hour with Charlie Rose. He can go on MTP, FNC, This Week, etc. anytime he wants. And the beauty of it is that it costs next to nothing. By making use of free media, he can concentrate what money he does have into key states. He also has Mark McKinnon (the guy who ran the media strategy for Bush/Cheney ‘04) running his ads, so while it is less likely then, say, 2 months ago that he’ll win the nomination, I wouldn’t count him out.
August 22nd, 2007 at 11:02 pm
This is a crock and there goes my support for Mooney.
Social conservatives for McCain or Huckabee is an oxymoron.
McCain with his amnesty bill? His campaign is over in NH believe me.
I’ll have to confront Maureen on this…whew…what’s going on in the world….???
August 22nd, 2007 at 11:21 pm
NH,
Plenty of social conservatives support comprehensive immigration reform…
August 23rd, 2007 at 9:12 am
I believe there is an on going fight in michigan on whether to allow non republicans to vote in the primaries or not. whoever wins, the romney people or the mccain people, will surely be extremly important. if it is closed, romney will win, if it is open, he will probably still win, but it will be harder.
August 23rd, 2007 at 9:26 am
Iowa:
To the contrary (and I hate to say this, as I really, really dislike Romney) — I think this is great news for him.
Romney’s chief asset in New Hampshire (former governor of a nearby state) is also his main liability, as he was the third most unpopular governor in the US at the time of his retirement. This means that Romney’s best chance of winning NH is a fractured opposition. McCain — by competing with Rudy for the more socially moderate voters — helps Romney tremendously. And, yes, this is a social conservative group, but their endorsement lends credibility to McCain in his efforts to stay in the race.
August 23rd, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Hello, all-
LJ - I agree w/ your assessment per Michigan. Moreover, McCain actually had an office in Michigan, well before they were scheduled to move up, before the events in July. While the loss of independent votes due to his pro-war position is significant, I would still believe that in a multi-candidate race he’d be able to pull out a badly-needed win.
JON - thanks for the headsup about the possibility of closing Michigan’s primary. I would agree that McCain’s prospects for winning it would be very difficult, if only Republicans may vote. However, the trend around the country for both parties is to open them. It’s logical; each party wants to have a candidate who can win the general election. The best way of doing that is to permit independents (i.e., swing voters) help to participate in the party’s nominee. It dilutes the power of the activists who tend to dominate the nomination process. (And I’m not just saying that, because it would benefit McCain in this particular instance. I think that’s better for the system and for both parties.)
SGS - you’re right on target when you note that McCain really doesn’t need a lot of money to keep fighting. (Obviously, it would be a lot better to have it, but it’s not an absolute requirement.) The chief value of money is to increase name recognition and attract free media. As you note, McCain already has universal name ID. And he has the national reputation that he doesn’t have any trouble getting interviewed on the big news programs and attracting coverage from the mainstream media.
Where the money would be really helpful, would be in terms of hiring more staff and building a GOTV effort in the key states. But he’s already a known quantity in Michigan, NH and SC, having devoted a lot of effort to them in 2000. Ads are not going to be a major factor.
Reactions are welcome…
August 23rd, 2007 at 1:06 pm
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August 23rd, 2007 at 8:56 pm
NH, illegal immigration is actually more along the line of defense conservatism (protect our country) and fiscal conservatism (illegal immigrants going to hospitals, etc at no cost for themselves, passing the cost to rest of us and jobs). Social conservatism is more about preserve the family structure and life.
August 23rd, 2007 at 9:02 pm
Well, I may be too narrow-scoped about social conservatism. It also is about helping people as needed. I personally prefer that the federal government only help people help themselves, not help them, and use the non-profit organizations and charities instead. I once read an article (from about 2 years ago?) that if each single church helps a family in need, there will be no family left for anyone else to help. Anyway, we can do better helping people ourselves than some person behind a desk.