GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Hillary Rodham leads the GOP Big Three in Virginia and Kentucky and would beat Mitt Romney in Alabama, so says SurveyUSA. Hat tip to Dave Wissing for these numbers:
PRESIDENT - VIRGINIA
Hillary 49%
Giuliani 46%Hillary 51%
Thompson 42%Hillary 53%
Romney 39%PRESIDENT - ALABAMA
Giuliani 50%
Hillary 44%Thompson 49%
Hillary 47%Hillary 48%
Romney 46%PRESIDENT - KENTUCKY
Hillary 49%
Giuliani 44%Hillary 51%
Thompson 44%Hillary 53%
Romney 41%
A few observations. First, these polls do seem a tad off, especially given recent polling from states like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that shows a statistical tie between Hillary and one or more of the major GOP contenders. Are we to believe that Alabama, Kentucky, and Virginia have enjoyed a massive blue shift over the past three years while the Rust Belt has basically remained frozen in time (excepting Michigan, which seems poised to become the next Illinois)? The answer to that question is far from clear. While such a dramatic template change seems hard to swallow, it is certainly within the realm of possibility. Keep in mind that this summer has produced polls from Arkansas, West Virginia, and Florida that show Hillary winning each of those states. Contrast that with Colorado, Oregon, and New Jersey, where Hillary underperforms Kerry, at least in a race with Rudy. Would it be simplistic to suggest that the entire nation has gotten more purple in the past three years? Probably. A more accurate statement would be that some states have gotten redder since 2004, some have gotten bluer, and some have held steady. The result is an increase in the number of swing states that either party could conceivably win. And that means a less polarized nation. But it also means that Republicans can’t simply fall back on the solid south in order to cobble together an electoral majority next November. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times: the red-state strategy is over.
August 22nd, 2007 at 9:06 pm
[...] post by DaveG and software by Elliott [...]
August 22nd, 2007 at 9:25 pm
This has to be a problem. The GOP is short of cash. In a race with a lot of swing states the Democrats can overwhelm us with money. End result we lose under a barrage of unanswered ads.
We need to change direction forcefully and quickly or we’ll be too far behind for any candidate to compete in this environment.
August 22nd, 2007 at 9:41 pm
Took me a few seconds to get the Evita reference. I personally hope that what we’re seeing is just an inflation of the current climate with Bush-hate spillover. I think that once the rest of America starts paying attention to the race come 4th quarter, that things will balance out. But the GOP needs to start focusing on the emerging demographics, not just the tried and true.
August 22nd, 2007 at 9:55 pm
If I remember correctly, the last poll out of Florida shows Hillary leading Rudy by 5. The last poll out of Ohio shows Rudy leading Hillary by 1. That’s a 10-point Democratic jump in Florida from 2004, and a 0 point Democratic jump in Ohio from 2004. Virginia shows an 11 point Democratic jump from 2004 looking just at the Hillary/Rudy numbers in this poll (worse for the other candidates). The most recent Wisconsin poll shows a 0 point jump for the Dems in the Hillary/Rudy race (again, worse for the other GOP candidates). What gives? Why has the South disproportionately turned against the Republicans? Any theories? Does it have to do with the human toll from Iraq, which may disproportionately impact the South?
August 22nd, 2007 at 10:01 pm
Those numbers will change once Hillary sees Romney in a debate. It will be the ultimate emotion vs logic showdown. And econ student, dont worry about money. Romney has more in the bank than HRC can raise. And the GOP will give him a cool billion if HRC is nominated. I dont know anyone who wouldn’t pay $2300 to get rid of her.
August 22nd, 2007 at 10:20 pm
And econ student, dont worry about money. Romney has more in the bank than HRC can raise.
I wouldn’t write off Hillary as a money machine. You may be right, but remember that she is married to the most successful fundraiser of the last couple of generations.
August 22nd, 2007 at 10:37 pm
Per-on, Per-on, Per-on!
The music from Evita is ringing in my head. So many wonderful lyrics from that musical that could fit with Hillary.
August 22nd, 2007 at 10:40 pm
LOL. I know! I was trying to think of some especially appropriate ones. Suggestions are welcome, of course.
August 23rd, 2007 at 8:12 am
New polls out of Ohio, MO, and NM showing similar results. You can’t read much into the number w/r/t Romney or THompson, but the GIuliani numbers are telling. There’s no way that MO, OH, AL, and KY are close and the national numbers are close without some blue states becoming close as well.
Interesting query is whether Giuliani makes it close, but gets blown out in the electoral college.
August 23rd, 2007 at 8:13 am
The point is that Rudy runs better than Fred or Mitt(much better than Mitt), not whether the Republican candidate will lose these states. The relevance of the horse race with Hillary is that we can’t afford to run our weaker candidates this year.
August 23rd, 2007 at 8:43 am
I am telling you that hillary can beat us. she has managed, with the media’s help in not being critical, to ‘moderate’ herself to a position that many americans think sounds good. even though we all know it is a fake.
she is trying to model what her husband did and was when we all know she is nothing like her husband. she is even worse.
August 23rd, 2007 at 10:55 am
[...] USA released a bunch more general election polling, commented on by the Hedgehog Report and DaveG at Race42008. Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney were matched up against Hillary in Virginia, [...]
August 23rd, 2007 at 11:53 am
[...] USA released a bunch more general election polling, commented on by the Hedgehog Report and DaveG at Race42008. Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney were matched up against Hillary in Virginia, [...]
August 23rd, 2007 at 12:55 pm
If today were Aug 2008 verses Aug 2007, then these numbers may have meaning. Plenty time for things to change & go our way.
I’d rather lead at the finish, wouldn’t you?