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FLORIDA TO DNC: JUST TRY IT
This happened over the weekend, but we haven’t had anything up on R4′08 about it yet so I’ll throw in my two cents.
The first thing to realize when dealing with setting primary dates is that it is a complicated dance between state parties, national parties, and state legislatures. What we are seeing in Florida and Michigan is the mess which is a direct result of that dance.
The Florida legislature, backed by the state parties, earlier this year moved their primaries to January 29 – a direct violation of national party rules which stated only certain key states could hold their primaries or caucuses before February 5. The RNC threatened to withhold half of Florida’s delegates if the plan passed; the DNC threatened to withhold all of the states’ delegates. (Remember, the primary process is not to nominate candidates – it is to nominate delegates who will then go and nominate the candidates.) Neither of the threats worked, and Florida went ahead with their plan.
This past Saturday, the enforcement panel of the DNC voted unanimously to – shock! – enforce their rules and strip Florida from having any delegates at the Democratic National Convention next summer. Basically, the primary in Florida won’t matter for the Democratic candidates if things stay the way they are right now.
Of course, things won’t stay the way they are right now. The DNC has given Florida 30 days to move their primary to be in compliance with their rules. This move, of course, was also a shot across the bow of the Michigan state legislature, who is halfway done moving their primary to January 15. But this tangled mess gets even more tangled now. For instance:
So really, it’s come down to a big stare-down between the state legislature and the national Democratic party. Will lawmakers sue the DNC? Will the DNC enforce the panel’s ruling? Will there be two Democratic primaries in Florida next year – a non-binding one in January and then the real one in February?
And what will the RNC do about the GOP delegates from the state? One thing we do know: the official primary and caucus dates for every state must be submitted to the RNC by next Tuesday, September 4, so we should have a better grasp on the Republican situation then.
August 27th, 2007 at 3:10 pm
I am not exactly sure but I think I read somewhere that FL has 111 delegates for the GOP convention. If the RNC wants to strip that number down to 55 or 56 isn’t that little more than just a slap on the wrist? After all, as the Rombots love to say, the primary calendar is all about momentum. This would mean that even if reduced by half, FL would still have more delegates and an early say than most other states. If I’m a FL Republican this would make me happy. If what the DNC is threatening holds up then perhaps it would entice Independents in the state to move to the GOP. More Republicans in a swing state isn’t bad news, no matter how you slice it.
August 27th, 2007 at 3:17 pm
For Romney, it comes down to needing FL or MI to move.
If Florida tucks back into Super Tuesday, its great news for Romney, because MI could follow suit. That gives Romney more delegates on Super Tuesday – which would ensure that he would not stall out after the early states.
However, if Florida stays on 1/29, Romney needs MI to move up.
Romney needs both states in the same group, either having them both as early states, or both as ST states.
August 27th, 2007 at 4:11 pm
Matt,
Since you seem to be the expert on all things (calendar wise) around here, let me ask you a question.
People on this site have been saying that Michigan will be a closed primary. But didn’t McCain and Romney fight a huge proxy war at the MI GOP convention earlier this year over whether to keep the primary open (McCain) or closed (Romney) with McCain winning the fight? I seem to remember that you guys and Soren Dayton covered this pretty extensively.
Thanks for your help.
August 27th, 2007 at 4:22 pm
ACT,
Since Florida is Rudy’s best firewall, moving Florida back to Feb 5th would be great news for Romney. Michigan on 1-15 however, is ideal for him to continue building momentum, so the earlier Michigan votes, the better (in either case). I don’t see either of these states backing off of their current stands, but I could be wrong.
August 27th, 2007 at 4:23 pm
Nicholas, that’s good question. Yeah, I’m wondering myself too…
As for the Florida’s primary, I do not think it would not matter as much on Democratic side as it would on the Republican side. The reason is because so far, we have a clear winner on the democratic side. Of course, it could change, pending the early primaries. But, if Hillary does end up winning those primaries, she will win the nomination with the majority. Losing Florida Delegate won’t make a difference here. But on Republican side, this race is pretty close. A delegate or two could make a difference, especially if we have a broker convention. You would want to have as many delegates backing you up going into the convention as you can get, so you would be able to negotiate with less of the remaining delegates to back you up for your nomination.
August 27th, 2007 at 4:39 pm
About time someone around here woke up to the importance of this. I was afraid I was the only one.
If the Democrats scare Michigan away from the 1/15 date, it will be a huge blow to Gov. Romney. Winning the 8th largest state after Iowa and New Hampshire would give him almost unstoppable momentum.
The only question is whether the Michigan Democrats (who are pushing this, let’s remember) are going to give the DNC the bird. If they do, Gov. Romney’s chances of winning the nomination are easily over 50%. If they don’t his odds are maybe 25%.
August 27th, 2007 at 4:47 pm
Nicholas, SGS:
Michigan has had an open primary (allowing independents to vote, a la NH) since 1992, and that would have remained the case this year. The legislation moving the primary to 1/15 makes it a closed primary, which of course benefits Romney and Thompson and makes it harder for Rudy and McCain.
If the legislation does not pass, both state parties in MI have announced they will hold conventions or caucuses sometime in January (which does not require the approval of the state legislature) and would both be closed as well.
August 27th, 2007 at 5:00 pm
Thomas Alan,
I agree with you, but I think Mitt’s odds are better than 50% if Michigan goes early. While a win there is far from in the bag, I believe it is probable–and will combine with victories in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada (& Wyoming?) to seal the deal. If Michigan goes late, I believe that victories in the first 3 states will still give Mitt enough momentum to make his odds a lot better than 25%. I want Michigan to go early. If it does I think Mitt will win the nomination.
August 27th, 2007 at 5:19 pm
I think whatever is happening in Florida is great news for Florida Republicans. With all the local issues on the ballot the same day as the GOP primary and the Dems non-binding primary. What Dem is going to show up for that?
August 27th, 2007 at 5:31 pm
I had a good laugh at this one:
“The state party chairwoman [of FL], Karen Thurman, said she would confer with state officials about the ultimatum. “It’s going to be a difficult discussion,” she said, because Floridians are wary of having their votes taken away.”
Yeah, Floridians are wary of having their votes taken away from them. Who designed the ballots in Broward & Miami-Dade counties? Who is now about to take their votes away? All Democrats.. Too funny.. So much for the mean nasty ‘ol Republicans stealing votes..
Seriously, A compromise will be made for each situation. It will be interesting to see how this all works out.
August 27th, 2007 at 5:46 pm
My favorite was this quote from Donna Brazile:
“I understand how states crave to be first. I understand that they’re envious of the role that Iowa and New Hampshire have traditionally played. And I understand that they would like to see if they can get the candidates to come down and … spend all of their time and the resources and fill their bars — oh, sorry, not the bars! — fill their farms and their barns up with people. But the truth is is that we had a process. … That vote will stand … and send a signal to the people of Florida – which includes my sister, who had to show not one, not two, but three forms of ID in 2000.â€
Yes, that’s the same sister she just voted to disenfranchise.
LMAO
August 27th, 2007 at 6:39 pm
Too funny Thomas Allen,
Your point about democrats disenfranchising themselves is spot on. You’d think if they’d ever read the news & figure this out, they’d vote Republican for sure. But then again, it is these same people who put the “dah!” in Florida!
August 28th, 2007 at 9:52 am
[...] Florida, the only state with a history of questionable behavior such that it gets its own Fark tag, has moved its primary up to January 29th, in an attempt to have more of a voice in the campaign. This comes close to infringing on the sacred electoral turf held by states like Iowa and New Hampshire, and the Democrats, for one, won’t stand for it. The Democratic National Committee, which has rules about such things, has stripped Florida of its delegates, making the whole Florida contest effectively meaningless unless changes are made. (Note to Democrats: Good strategy, alienate voters in one of the key swing states… you’ll want to depress turnout come the general election.) Florida Democrats, for their part, are understandably upset, and even threatening to sue their own party for disenfranchisement. [...]