Rasmussen’s new poll of South Carolina is in stark contrast to ARG’s.

South Carolina- GOP Nomination

• Fred Thompson 24%
• Rudy Giuliani 20%
• Mitt Romney 15%
• John McCain 10%
• Mike Huckabee 3%

South Carolina Survey of 863 Likely GOP Primary Voters. Conducted September 26-27, 2007 by Rasmussen Reports

Hat tip: Awakened

All right, Romney and Huckabee supporters, let’s see if you guys still buy ARG’s polling.

American Research Group GOP Iowa Caucus Poll, conducted September 26-29, 2007

• Mitt Romney 22% (-5)
• Rudy Giuliani 21% (+4)
• Fred Thompson 16% (+3)
• John McCain 11% (+6)
• Mike Huckabee 5% (-10)

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points.

American Research Group New Hampshire Primary Poll, conducted September 26-29, 2007

• Romney 24% (-3)
• McCain 20% (+8)
• Rudy 20% (-3)
• Thompson 8% (even)
• Huckabee 3% (-6)

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points.

Note: All poll results taken from Real Clear Politics. GRAPH WARNING

Obviously, it took a poll like the one in South Carolina to cause me to do more than laugh off the results of the latest ARG Poll. So, I decided to do some research on ARG’s numbers in comparison to other polls taken at the same time.

Notice anything strange? Here are the poll results from four seperate polls taken between September 9 and September 19 in Florida:

Giuliani
• Rasmussen 29
• Mason Dixon 24
• Insider Advantage 24
• ARG 26

Thompson

• Rasmussen 23
• Mason Dixon 23
• Insider Advantage 23
• ARG 16

McCain

• Rasmussen 12
• Mason Dixon 9
• Insider Advantage 11
• ARG 18

Romney

• Rasmussen 11
• Mason Dixon 13
• Insider Advantage 12
• ARG 14

Now, even stranger, notice McCain’s numbers in New Hampshire compared to others taken in June.

Thompson
• ARG 3
• Mason Dixon 12
• Franklin Pierce 9
• CNN/WMUR 12

Giuliani

• ARG 21
• Mason Dixon 16
• Franklin Pierce 18
• CNN/WMUR 20

McCain

• ARG 30
• Mason Dixon 15
• Franklin Pierce 17
• CNN/WMUR 20

Romney

• ARG 23
• Mason Dixon 27
• Franklin Pierce 27
• CNN/WMUR 28

There are many more examples of this, that I will post once I can get my excel charts working.

Let’s look at South Carolina by itself in May, comparing two polls, ARG and Insider Advantage:

Thompson

• ARG 13
• Insider Adv 13

Giuliani

• ARG 23
• Insider Adv 18

McCain

• ARG 32
• Insider Adv 17

Romney

• ARG 10
• Insider Adv 8

Now, let’s compare June’s Mason Dixon poll and ARG poll in the state of South Carolina. One must remember that Mason Dixon is considered one of the best when measuring state support:

Thompson
• ARG 19
• Mason Dixon 25

Giuliani

• ARG 22
• Mason Dixon 21

McCain

• ARG 23
• Mason Dixon 7

Romney

• ARG 8
• Mason Dixon 11

I’m starting to see a pattern. How about you? There are many more, and this post could go on all night long.

UUHHHHH…. If these are true, then I’ll eat my shorts and endorse Mitt Romney as the second coming of Moses…

ARG Polling South Carolina GOP
(Last months in parenthesis)

• Mitt Romney 26% (+17)
• Rudy Giuliani 23% (-3)
• John McCain 15% (+3)
• Fred Thompson 10% (-11)
• Newt Gingrich 7% (+1)

• Mike Huckabee 1% (-8%)

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in South Carolina (524 Republicans and 76 independent voters).

Sample Dates: September 26-29, 2007

He has met his fundraising goals this last week. His supporters doubled his goal of raising 500,000 dollars in one week, bringing in over 1 million dollars in seven days.

Dr. Paul was campaigning in New Hampshire with his wife Carol and their family when our $1,000,000 goal was reached last night. As the time drew near, they watched on a laptop as the counter reached the $1 million mark. They, along with staff, supporters and volunteers throughout the country then celebrated this extraordinary accomplishment.

Over $1,000,000 raised in seven days for the Ron Paul 2008 presidential campaign. Remarkable!

On behalf of Dr. Paul and every member of the campaign staff: Thank you!!

Kent Snyder
Chairman
Ron Paul 2008

Update: Reports out of the Paul camp are that they will exceed their 2nd quarter totals. Great job to the Paul campaign and his band of supporters.

Hopeless liberal Frank Rich, whose television appearances I can’t bear to watch due to his stereotypical Boomer self-righteousness, proves that liberals are just as nervous about 2008 as many conservatives. His latest notes the similarities between likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and two presidential losers of the past. Money quote:

The Clinton machine runs as smoothly and efficiently as a Rolls. And like a fine car, it is just as likely to lull its driver into complacent coasting and its passengers to sleep. What I saw on television last Sunday was the incipient second coming of the can’t-miss 2000 campaign of Al Gore.

That Mr. Gore, some may recall, was not the firebrand who emerged from defeat, speaking up early against the Iraq war and leading the international charge on global warming. It was instead the cautious Gore whose public persona changed from debate to debate and whose answers were often long-winded and equivocal (even about the Kansas Board of Education’s decision to ban the teaching of evolution). Incredibly, he minimized both his environmental passions and his own administration’s achievements throughout the campaign.

He, too, had initially been deemed a winner, the potential recipient of a landslide rather than a narrow popular-vote majority.

…

Mrs. Clinton wouldn’t repeat Mr. Gore’s foolhardy mistake of running away from her popular husband and his record, even if she could. But almost every answer she gave last Sunday was a rambling and often tedious Gore-like filibuster. Like the former vice president, she often came across as a pontificator and an automaton - in contrast to the personable and humorous person she is known to be off-camera. And she seemed especially evasive when dealing with questions requiring human reflection instead of wonkery.

…

In this context it’s worth noting that Mr. Bush’s desperate lame-duck campaign to brand himself as a reincarnation of Harry Truman is not 100 percent ludicrous. A tiny part of the analogy could yet pan out. In 1948, Washington’s commentators and pollsters were convinced that Americans, tired of 15 years of Democratic rule, would vote in a Republican. Like today’s G.O.P., the Democrats back then were saddled with both an unloved incumbent president and open divisions in the party’s ranks on both its left and right flanks. Surely, the thinking went, the beleaguered Democrats couldn’t possibly vanquish a presidential candidate from New York known for his experience, competence, uncontroversial stands and above-the-fray demeanor.

But they did. What’s interesting about both Gore and Dewey is that both lost the Electoral College by a few votes in a few states. Gore, of course, lost by just over 500 votes in Florida. Tom Dewey, as I just learned from Kavon last week over the R408 Batphone, lost the Electoral College to Truman by only a few votes despite losing the popular vote by four points. As such, Rich is arguing that 2008 — with a divided, embattled incumbent party and a PermaFreeze general election frontrunner — is starting to look eerily similar to the two closest presidential elections of the last century.

I agree. I think we’re looking at another nailbiter of epic proportions. Despite my pessimism, the fact remains that Republicans have a number of strong candidates, many of whom have won tough races in the past and all of whom will run away from Bush after the nod is clinched. But we’re still a deeply divided party presiding over an unpopular war. If the Dems were running Mark Warner, the race would already be over. But they’re not. They’re running a candidate who will perpetuate Boomer polarization, who has high negatives, and who is reminiscent of the stiffest losers of presidential history. But still, the Dems have a ridiculous fundraising advantage and Americans now view them more favorably than the GOP on nearly every issue. This is the formula that almost always leads to an election for the history books.

Moreover, the Electoral College, especially in a Rudy/Hillary race, seems to be looking for ways to produce a 269-269 tie and send Tim Russert into dry-erase-board heaven. That’s because all of the Republicans, Rudy included, are doing worse than Bush in the Midwest and border states while Rudy specifically is upping GOP numbers on the coasts. If Rudy wins New Jersey, Washington, and Oregon, three blue states that are showing statistical ties between Rudy and Hillary right now, and if he picks up the Maine congressional district that Bush lost by only 5 points, he gains 34 EVs for the GOP. But if Hillary wins many of the red states in which she currently leads — New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, and Arkansas — she picks up 51 red EVs, which brings the country to, you guessed it, a 269-269 split.

As such, if you liked the aftermath of the 2000 election, complete with chads and lawsuits and Bush v. Gore, you’ll love November and December of 2008. Will future law students be reading about the Supreme Court’s decision in Giuliani v. Clinton in their casebooks? Stay tuned.

Here are some random thoughts on this Sunday morning for you to discuss while I am up with my 10-week-old son:

• Out of any of the four frontrunners, does anyone have a more difficult path to the nomination that Fred Thompson? Romney, though his leads are shrinking, is still ahead in IA, NH, NV, and depending on the poll perhaps MI. Rudy is in second place in nearly all of those states, meaning he could pull the upset in one or be strong enough to survive until FL. McCain is pouring resources into NH and seeing his numbers rebound there, even while they sink like a stone elsewhere. But Fred… according to the poll averages, Fred is in third place in Iowa and in danger of being passed by Huckabee; he’s in fourth place in New Hampshire; third in Nevada, and fourth in Michigan. Is there any way a front runner survives two third place and two fourth place finishes in the first four contests?
• Speaking of Giuliani, I am becoming more and more convinced that this race will boil down to a Rudy-Romney matchup just as a virtue of the winnowing process of the early primary states. The first four states are all Romney-Giuliani in first and second place, in that order. Granted, that could change in the 90 some days between now and the primaries, but not very much or very easily. The only big events left are the debates, and Romney and Giuliani have both shown they can hold their own during them.
• Sam Brownback says he will be staying in the race until after the Iowa caucuses. What’s with this guy? He’s polling at 1% in Iowa, has negative momentum in the state, is out of cash, and lost all his supporters to Mike Huckabee. My hope is that he’ll be financially unable to continue after the 3Q fundraising numbers come in, but I think he sees himself on some religious quest that he must complete come hell or high water.
• Speaking of religion, one of Fred Thompson’s biggest mistakes so far in this campaign - and he has made more than even I thought he was going to - was to tell his supporters that he didn’t really attend church and wasn’t going to talk about religion on the campaign trail. Still trying to figure out the strategy behind that while trying to become the white knight of the religious right. The rumor from several different sources now is that the Arlington Group, a loose federation of religious, pro-family groups, will not endorse anybody in this primary - they were holding out for Thompson to enter the race but have been unimpressed since he did so. Where will religious conservatives land in this election? Methinks they will vote for… Giuliani, and Romney, and McCain, and Thompson.
• Speaking of big mistakes, Mitt’s comments about his sons serving their country by helping get their dad elected (yes, I know it’s a misquote, but it’s how people understood it) may have hurt him more than we know. At dinner with my father-in-law tonight, a reliably staunch but common sense conservative, he explained to me his dilemma. He will never vote for Rudy Giuliani, he said, because of his leadership style (authoritarian, ruthless, takes credit for everything) and because of his views on gun control and abortion (he doesn’t trust his recent comments to the NRA and saying he’ll appoint the right judges). He was leaning toward Romney, he said, until he heard that quote about his sons. According to him, “that kind of turned me off to him.”
• The thing about NH going three days after IA is that means we won’t have any really accurate polls for New Hampshire after the Iowa caucuses are completed. To get a good sample, most top-notch polling agencies like to poll over a 2-3 day period which will not be available between the two states. If McCain continues his push in the state, and Rudy continues to nip at Mitt’s heels, that means New Hampshire ‘08 might well become the most excited, anticipated, and unknown primary in recent memory.
• I could vote for Ron Paul so easily if it weren’t for his views on the war on terror…
• I could vote for Tom Tancredo so easily if it weren’t for… no, wait, nevermind.
• I would definitely vote for John McCain before I’d vote for Rudy Giuliani at this point.
• I’m really hoping that two candidates drop out of the race between the release of 3Q numbers and the next debate in October. Really, I’d like four or five of them to drop out, but realistically speaking, I don’t think two would be too much to ask. In the order they should drop out: Brownback, Tancredo, Hunter, Paul.
• Speaking of dropping out of the race, would one of the four frontrunners just offer the SecDef job to Duncan Hunter already so he can bow out?
• And just for the record, I have a man-crush on Duncan Hunter. In a strictly platonic sort of way. Hey, he built that fence with his bare hands…!

SurveyUSA Washington State Presidential Election

• Rudy Giuliani 47%
• Hillary Clinton 47%

• Hillary Clinton 52%
• Fred Thompson 42%

• Hillary Clinton 54%
• Mitt Romney 40%

• Barack Obama 52%
• Rudy Giuliani 41%

• Barack Obama 54%
• Fred Thompson 40%

• Barack Obama 57%
• Mitt Romney 35%

• John Edwards 45%
• Rudy Giuliani 44%

• John Edwards 51%
• Fred Thompson 36%

• John Edwards 55%
• Mitt Romney 31%

Survey of registered voters was conducted September 17.

NYT:

Newt Gingrich has sent so many hints pointing in so many different directions that we’re dizzy trying to follow them all. But now, it appears, he’s made up his mind.

Rick Tyler, Mr. Gingrich’s spokesman, confirmed today that the former Republican House speaker has decided against a presidential run in 2008.

Mr. Gingrich was “presented with legal advice this morning,” said Mr. Tyler in a quick phone interview. “There was a choice presented.”

The choice was to remain chairman of his political action committee, American Solutions, or to allow advisers to move forward with an exploratory committee. But he could not, legally, do both, Mr. Tyler explained.
“So Mr. Gingrich made a choice to remain a citizen activist,” he said.Mr. Gingrich’s flirtation with a candidacy has been long and replete with mixed signals. Throughout the spring, he mocked the other candidates for starting their campaigns so early, and he said then that if a “void” existed after his American Solutions conference in September, he would consider jumping in.

He seemed to be leaning against a run when Fred D. Thompson’s candidacy started to spur excitement among Republicans, but as Mr. Thompson’s campaign got off to a slow start, Mr. Gingrich appeared somewhat interested again.

He said that if his supporters could raise $30 million by November, he would have enough to compete. Then, as Katharine Q. Seelye reported yesterday, he set up a “feasibility assessment” to determine his chances, and he said he would make up his mind by Oct. 21. Well, in a rare occurrence in politics, Mr. Gingrich beat his own deadline.

Mr. Tyler said news on an official announcement from Mr. Gingrich would be forthcoming. Mr. Gingrich was to appear on Fox News today at 5 p.m.

UPDATE: The word from Gingrich is that there will be no endorsements in the forseeable future.

Newsweek GOP Iowa Caucus

• Mitt Romney 24%
• Fred Thompson 16%
• Rudy Giuliani 13%
• Mike Huckabee 12%
• John McCain 9%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Undecided 15%

Second Choice

• Rudy Giuliani 21%
• Mitt Romney 21%
• Fred Thompson 10%
• John McCain 4%
• Mike Huckabee 2%
• Ron Paul 2%
• Undecided 15%

Survey of likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted September 26-27. The margin of error is +/- 9 percentage points.

Rudy Giuliani

• Giuliani argues he can beat Hillary
• Giuliani proves himself Mr. September
  By Jonathan Martin
• Giuliani targets Dems in Kirkland cafe chat
• Sorry, Fred, I’m Sticking With Rudy
  By Kyle-Anne Shiver
• Background aside, GOP women like Giuliani
  At a national gathering, perceived strength on national security seems to trump his three marriages and his stance on abortion.
• Rudy Giuliani Commits to Expanding School Choice
• Giuliani met with protests, but polls show strength in Oregon
• Giuliani to campaign in Rock Hill Oct. 11
• Rudy puts Washington in play for Republicans
• In California, Giuliani makes his case to Republican women
• A Different Side of the Mayor
• License Plan by Spitzer Gains Critic in Giuliani
• White House Says Mukasey Would Skip Giuliani Issues
• Former LA Mayor Riordan endorses Giuliani presidential bid
• Rudy Giuliani Does the Biltmore and Joe’s Café
  Former NYC Mayor/Current Presidential Candidate Makes Santa Barbara Rounds
• Giuliani Cites Bible on Personal Life
• Brody File Reacts to Giuliani Interview
• Introducing Rove’s New Protege
• Giuliani fundraiser gave big bucks to state ballot measure
• Giuliani touches down briefly in Yountville
• Video: Rudy in Santa Barbara
• Neocon ‘godfather’ Norman Podhoretz tells Bush: bomb Iran

Fred Thompson

• Fred Thompson courts Christian conservatives
• President Thompson
  By J. Peter Mulhern
• G.O.P. Hopeful Took Own Path in the Senate
• Kramer vs. Kramer
  A Presidential Campaign About Nothing
• Thompson angers Florida’s Hispanics
  The White House hopeful’s comments on citizenship may alienate GOP voters.
• Thompson ought to run on speed dial
• Thompson to show more than $7 million
• Fred Thompson faces fundraising pressure
  He starts race for cash, clout way behind
• Fred Thompson in West Tennessee: Critics are wrong
• Fundraising Is Thompson’s First Big Test
  Former Senator Faces High Expectations As Third Quarter Ends
• Fred Thompson is Campaigning as Matlock
  by Tina Dupuy
• Fred Thompson reinforces concerns about his cluelessness
• Fred Thompson to speak before Iowa Christian Alliance

John McCain

• McCain: No Muslim president, U.S. better with Christian one
• McCain sees Constitution establishing a ‘Christian nation’
• McCain stays upbeat
  Behind in Mich., GOP hopeful says he can win state
• McCain Calls for Tough Stance on Myanmar
• McCain Plays Up His P.O.W. Past
• John McCain: The Comeback Kid?
• For McCain, it’s make or break time
• McCain On Skipping The African American Debate
• McCain to Hispanic business leaders: Democrats’ agenda is ‘tired and dangerous’
• McCain Refreshes a Plan for League of Democracies
• McCain: Global economy an opportunity, but not a benefit to all
• No wonder John McCain’s campaign is in trouble
  The candidate calls for a safety net to cushion workers from globalization. But he doesn’t want to pay for it

Mitt Romney

• Report to Show Romney Fortune’s Bigger Role
• Q&A: ‘We’ve Got to Fix Ourselves’
  In an interview with NEWSWEEK, the GOP presidential hopeful looks for some separation from the president.
  By Jonathan Darman and Lisa Miller, Newsweek
• National Journal’s Linda Douglass Interviews Mitt Romney
• Romney in Utah, talks about health care, Iraq
  He offers no timetable for withdrawal of troops from the war zone
• Utahns shower Mitt with praise and cash
  Candidate rakes in the bucks at 6-hour event at Salt Palace
• Romney: I run, therefore Iran
• V.P. talks Iraq, borders in SLC
• Romney Bashes Harvard In New Ad
  Harvard Crimson: Republican Hopeful Says He Didn’t Provide Security For Former Iranian Leader’s Visit
• NPR Audio: Romney on the Road
• Lessons from a presidential candidate
  Republican Mitt Romney visits region, shakes hands, kisses babies and doesn’t say very much
• Massachusetts Gov. Patrick: Romney a “shameless” candidate
• Romney in Salt Lake City: Mitt stresses conservative values
• Romney brings on new staffer from WH
• Romney camp sees positives in N.H. poll numbers
  Says support strong among conservatives
• Romney seeks to assure supporters over campaign
• Romney Criticizes Rush Limbaugh

Newt Gingrich

• Breaking News: Gingrich says no to White House bid
• Gingrich not running for president in ‘08
• Analysis: Gingrich’s motivations for running
  AJC political columnist Jim Galloway asks and answers a few key questions about Newt Gingrich’s decision not to run for president.
• Can Newt Solve America’s Problems?
• Gingrich takes step toward ‘08 run
• Gingrich-led forum on issues today
• Newt is Running
  That’s my assessment based on his pledge scheme.
  by Patrick Ruffini
• Gingrich Sounds Presidential at Solutions Day Launch
• Gingrich: $30 million will get me into presidential race
• Newt Gingrich Speaks in Second Life, Gets Heckled, Greeted by Naked Female Avatar
• The Newt factor
• Is there a Gingrich groundswell? Former speaker launches pledge drive to find out
• Gingrich’s ‘Feasibility Assessment’
• Gingrich Tiptoes Toward a White House Bid

General Race 4 2008 News

• Something In Common: Three Presidential Candidates Have Each Lost A Child
• Baseball as Political Metaphor
• Rasmussen Reports: Edwards Handily Leads Giuliani, Thompson
  Edwards 50% Giuliani 41%; Edwards 49% Thompson 39%
• 2008 Republican Candidate Key Stats
• 2008 Democratic Candidate Key Stats
• Iowa, N.H. Eye New Caucus, Primary Dates
• Will immigration sink Republicans?
  by Linda Chavez
• Frontrunner Giuliani Leading Among Most Republican Subgroups
  Thompson, Giuliani running even in southern states
• It’s Rudy v. Hill
  But Clinton’s Sitting Prettier
  by John Podhoretz
• War Hurts Clinton, Helps Giuliani in N.J.
• Elon Poll: Clinton, Thompson lead among NC voters
• Eyes on Thompson as Third Quarter Draws to a Close
• Connecticut Capitol Watch
  Only Four Months To Super Duper Tuesday
• Looney Tunes reruns do voters no favors
  This is no way to run a presidential election
• Bill Clinton Says Thompson Fumbles May Cost Him, Admires McCain
• Going Where the Voters Are
  By Jennifer Rubin
• Penn, Castellanos fight it out on stage
• Will GOP Pander Its Way to Defeat?
• Top GOP Candidates to Headline Econ Conference
• Yepsen: Huckabee stands out in GOP forum
• Bill Clinton, Gingrich agree on Huckabee as GOP dark horse
• Video: Mike Huckabee’s Speech at CSIS
• Huckabee has hard words for Bush
  ‘Bunker mentality … counterproductive,’ GOP hopeful says
• Huckabee debuts foreign policy
• Sarah Palin: The GOP’s North Star
  By Patrick Ruffini
• Huckabee departs slightly from GOP views on war
• Sen. Mel Martinez may quit GOP post
• Forum goes on without Tancredo
• Heir Unapparent
• Social conservatives ask, Where’s Rudy?
  by Robert Novak
• S-Veto It
  There are problems with our health care system, but they won’t be solved by creeping nationalization.
  by Fred Barnes
• Who will get Wyoming’s vote?
• Jeb Bush’s education legacy proving to be historic
• Obama pledges to end racial disparities in justice system
• Questions for Obama
  By George Will
• Time running out for the making of a black President
  Barack Obama’s campaign has stubbornly failed to gather momentum, while Hillary Clinton powers ahead. Paul Harris in New York on the man from Illinois who stalled in the polls
• Obama helps Democrats gain ground among Cubans
• Obama uses Bill Clinton’s words against Hillary
• Political Stardom Profitable for Obama
• Hope Sinks
  The disappointingly conventional Obama campaign.
  by Michael Crowley
• The Entitlements People
  by David Brooks
• Candidates go Code Blue on healthcare
  Democrats want to bring everyone into the system; Republicans think people demand too much treatment.
• Candidates Try Gimmicks In Late Fund-Raising Push
• The big risk: first negative ad
  Attacks do work, but they are tricky to mount
• Wanted: Democratic Straight Talk on Iraq
  By Eugene Robinson
• For a Democrat, Options in Iraq Could Be Few
  Hopefuls Seen as Unlikely To Effect Rapid Change
  By Thomas Ricks
• Democrats the Party of ‘Normal Americans’
  By Froma Harrop
• Ahmadinejad walks away with a win
  His Columbia engagement gives him what he wants — legitimacy — and his hosts look rude to Islamic eyes.
• Ron Paul Country
• Ted Kennedy’s defense priorities
  by Byron York
• Candidates get chatty on TV
• Edwards: “We cannot build enough prisons to solve this problem. And the idea that we can keep incarcerating and keep incarcerating - pretty soon we’re not going to have a young African-American male population in America. They’re all going to be in prison or dead. One of the two.”
• Edwards: People need trustworthy president, not cunning pol
• Poll: No Home-State Advantage for Edwards
• Why We’re Winning Now in Iraq
  Anbar’s citizens needed protection before they would give their “hearts and minds.”
  By Frederick Kagan
• The Long Arm of Iran
  The top mullahs have been complicit in terror attacks.
  by Dan Senor
• France Flips While Congress Shifts
  By Charles Krauthammer
• Democracies talk, tyrannies act
  by Mark Steyn
• Anti-War Forces Haven’t Won Battle for American’s Heart and Minds
  By Warner Todd Huston
• Couric ‘Uncomfortable’ with Post-9/11 Patriotic Fervor
• Guests for the Sunday TV News Shows
• Sunday talk show tip sheet
• Rasmussen Reports: Congressional Performance
  Congressional Ratings: 2% Excellent 13% Good
• Sort Of. Maybe. Kind Of.
  The leading Democratic candidates have all pledged to boycott Florida, which means they won’t be coming here, right? Well, sort of. Maybe.
• Richardson won’t use public campaign funds
• Gore Dodges Repeated Calls to Debate Global Warming
• Re: Phony Soliders
• Surveillance Showdown
  “Privacy” zealots want America to forgo intelligence capabilities during wartime.
  by David Rivkin and Lee Casey

Hillary Clinton

• Clinton: $5,000 for Every U.S. Baby
• Clinton supports ‘baby bond’ for newborns
• Video: Newt Gingrich on Hillary Clinton
• Bush, Clinton, Bush … Clinton?
• She Can Be Stopped - Part II
• Al Hunt’s Interview With Bill Clinton
• Clinton’s political blessing is her political curse
  The latest debate highlighted her struggle to benefit from popular parts of her husband’s legacy but distance herself from the unpopular.
• Daily Show on the Hillary Cackle
• Stephanopoulos Touts Talking Points Sent Him by Clinton Camp
• Bill Clinton Says He Was More Experienced Than Obama
• Laughing Matters in Clinton Campaign
• Dodd questions Clinton’s electability
• Hillary’s health care bomb could blow up a good system
• Clinton’s Game of Dodgeball
  By David Broder
• Front-runner last in specifics
  Hillary’s first in platitudes, but caution could doom her
• Defecting Republican donors fill Hillary’s coffers
• Hillary Clinton, new pin-up of the Republican right
  by Andrew Sullivan
• Is Hillary Clinton the New Old Al Gore?
  by Frank Rich

[WARNING TO INSIDE THE BELTWAY CONVENTIONAL WISDOM CONSERVATIVES: THIS BLOG IS NOT ABOUT JOHN EDWARDS OR MOVEON.ORG]

If one were to believe the fawning praise of inside the beltway political pundits, a shrewd strategist devising a plan on November 8, 2006 for a Democrat to win the White House on November 5, 2008 would propose that a candidate:

1) Change positions on the Iraq War with every release of a new Gallup Poll;

2) Vote to cut off funds to the troops in the field;

3) Slander the commanding general of a successful surge of troops in the field on national television by calling him a liar with a cute phrase worthy of those bewildered by the meaning of “is”;

4) Cackle at, instead of jabbing the knee of, Chris Wallace;

5) Express dismay that the Supreme Court upheld the federal law banning partial birth abortion;

6) Take money from a 15-year fugitive from justice;

7) Have her campaign utilize (and remain married to herself) a bitter, angry man that no longer can contain his Stephanopoulos described temper; and

8] Refused to denounce the idea of teaching 2nd graders about homosexuality.

Yeah, the Hillary is really disciplined. The kind of discipline that McGovern, Mondale and Dukakis had.

Many of even the beltway conservative pundits appear to be guilty, with respect to Hillary, of what most of the MSM is guilty of with respect to the Iraq War: boxing themselves in a position where to recognize reality is to discredit their own prior judgments.

Hillary has not been disciplined since she first met Bill in the Yale Law Library or even before, when she first read The Feminine Mystique.

Nor has she been disciplined since her first vote against tax cuts as a senator or her first move towards defeat in Iraq. She has been all over the lot on Iraq. It’s all on tape. Rush plays her varying statements all the time.

Have Fred Barnes and David Brooks and the rest of the conservative writers not heard them? Have they not seen her votes? If they have, then what can explain their obligatory statements that she is disciplined except that they want to be loved by their liberal cohorts in DC?

Discipline for a liberal that wants to be president means disguising ones liberalism. See the successful campaign in 1992 (see also Perot recruitment)

Teaching second graders about sex is not discipline except for those that really want to teach first graders the same.

Even Bob Shrum wouldn’t suggest that kind of discipline.

I contend that these liberal democrats simply cannot help themselves and that they will not allow our Republican candidate to lose in 2008.

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson
The HinzSight Report
The Minority Report
Race 4 2008
http://www.win-the-war.com/

Lost in the excitement of this last week’s fundraising efforts were some of the “Ask Mitt Anything” stops he made. David Brody, the respected reporter from CBN, filed this report on Thursday:

Elon University GOP North Carolina Primary

• Fred Thompson 27.9%
• Rudy Giuliani 21.0%
• John McCain 12.2%
• Mitt Romney 8.4%
• Mike Huckabee 2.0%
• Too early to tell 16.6%
• Don’t know 8.1%

Survey of Republican adults was conducted September 24-27.

I don’t hold much value in straw poll results, but some on this site do. So, to show that one candidate doesn’t have a mandate on all straw polls, here are the results of the Ohio State Republican Party Straw Poll. They had a turnout of 2,300. From the Ohio GOP official site:

Fred Thompson 33%
Rudy Giuliani 24%
Mitt Romney 17%
John McCain 11%
Mike Huckabee 7%
Sam Brownback 4%
Duncan Hunter 2%
Ron Paul 1%
Tom Tancredo 1%

Here is some of their report on the event:

Political observers agree the race for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination is wide open at this point, and Ohio could play an important role in choosing the nominee when voters here go to the polls on March 4.

“Your participation in the straw poll not only provides an early indication of how Ohio will vote but also demostrates your support of building a strong grassroots organization through our state party,” DeWine told the nearly 2,300 Ohioans who cast a straw poll ballot.

Now, back to the race

Gallup GOP Subgroup National Primary

Republican Nomination Preference by Ideological Self-Identification

Among Moderate/Liberal Republicans (N=544)

• Giuliani 38%
• Thompson 17%
• McCain 16%
• Romney 9%

Among Conservative Republicans (N=1,131)

• Giuliani 30%
• Thompson 23%
• McCain 15%
• Romney 10%

Republican Nomination Preference by Frequency of Church Attendance

Attend Church Weekly (N=689)

• Giuliani 27%
• Thompson 24%
• McCain 17%
• Romney 9%
• Huckabee 7%

Attend Monthly (N=396)

• Giuliani 33%
• Thompson 18%
• McCain 16%
• Romney 14%

Seldom/Never Attend (N=577)

• Giuliani 39%
• Thompson 20%
• McCain 13%
• Romney 8%

Republican Nomination Preference by Religious Affiliation

Protestant/”Christian” (N=765)

• Giuliani 28%
• Thompson 23%
• McCain 17%
• Romney 8%

Catholic (N=273)

• Giuliani 44%
• Thompson 18%
• McCain 13%
• Romney 13%

Republican Nomination Preference by Region of the Country

Northeast (N=327)

• Giuliani 43%
• McCain 14%
• Thompson 14%
• Romney 13%

Midwest (N=365)

• Giuliani 34%
• Thompson 17%
• McCain 16%
• Romney 9%

South (N=616)

• Giuliani 28%
• Thompson 28%
• McCain 12%
• Romney 6%

West (N=382)

• Giuliani 28%
• McCain 19%
• Thompson 18%
• Romney 14%

Survey of 1,690 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted in August and September.

Jennifer Rubin makes sense of that headline at the AmSpec blog:

With the exception of the omnipresent John McCain and Mike Huckabee (who never met a talk show host he didn’t like), the presidential contenders do not frequent the Sunday talk shows, go on network news or subject themselves to interrogation by CNN or MSNBC reporters outside the few debates they have done.

This is a mistake. Simply put, GOP candidates are ignoring Willie Sutton’s advice. Sutton of course was the prolific bank robber who was said to have replied “that’s where the money is” when asked why he robbed banks. Likewise, the GOP contenders would be wise to go where the voters are, especially voters they are losing.

…..

It is perhaps natural in such times to go into a defensive crouch and stick to the safe confines of Fox News and friendly talk radio hosts. Particularly in a heated primary it makes perfect sense to seek out venues which have large numbers of politically active conservative listeners and viewers. But over time it is limiting and self-defeating for several reasons.

First, GOP candidates need to recapture independents and convince moderate Democrats they offer an attractive platform, not the cartoon positions attributed to them by their Democratic opponents. Explaining why the Bush tax cuts are worth keeping whether you are “rich” or not is a worthwhile and essential exercise not only to getting elected but building support for the policies they advocate.

Second, it is good practice. Debate moderators in the general election and the Washington press corps are not renowned for their sympathetic take on Republicans and conservative policies. It is helpful to practice answering the loaded question and disarming the questioner — as Rudy Giuliani did in the Iowa debate when he questioned the reporter’s premise that higher taxes would bring in more revenue. If you don’t practice in the primary. it makes the general election that much tougher.

Finally, Hillary Clinton this past weekend showed that it is not so difficult for a prepared and polished candidate to survive even the toughest inquisitor on Sunday morning, Tim Russert. Having done so she can claim that “they threw everything at me” but didn’t draw blood. She reached a huge audience and showed she is calm and collected under fire.

Now, it is not a good idea to go into the lion’s den unarmed or unprepared, but for candidates with solid debate skills, defined policies, and a decent sense of humor it doesn’t pay to hide in the safe confines of the conservative media. For individual candidates, the benefits of venturing out into the MSM world can be considerable. And if the GOP is going to start gaining back ground, showing their faces is one way they’ll begin to convince the American people that they do not deserve to be banished to the political wilderness.

Read the rest here.