Many have been wondering when Mitt was going to start dumping some money into states like South Carolina, where he has languished in single-to-low-double digits in polling. Well, wonder no more because he is going up with this ad today:
It is a variant on the original “Energy” ad running in Iowa and New Hampshire. The New York Times notes that Romney has spent more than $2 million in advertising in both Iowa and New Hampshire thus far, and has spent just around $200,000 in South Carolina. This will be his first major media buy in the state, and it will be interesting to watch his poll numbers as a result.
September 5th, 2007 at 1:57 am
[...] post by Matt C and software by Elliott [...]
September 5th, 2007 at 3:04 am
It will be interesting to watch Giuliani’s poll numbers once he starts spending advertising dollars like a drunken sailor too!
September 5th, 2007 at 6:37 am
ah, the fresh smell of buying popularity in the morning.
September 5th, 2007 at 6:44 am
Seriously. Did Romney promise everyone free pizza when he was running for class president?
September 5th, 2007 at 6:52 am
“every place that mitt has gone he has solved problems that people said were nearly impossible”
still waiting to hear mitt attempt to make the big dig a subset of the nearly impossible problem-solving skills.
September 5th, 2007 at 7:35 am
Can’t dispute his record on solving difficult problems and turning things around no matter how much you dislike him.
what has hillary or obama or edwards ever fixed? they are all senators. all they do is sit around and then go down to the floor and vote for somethinng. no managing.
just in, Fred appears to have often voted in support of lax illegal immigration laws. not suprised. he is as much of a flip flopper as anyone. mccain feingold, abortion, and now immigration.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/article/20070905/NATION/109050083/1002
September 5th, 2007 at 7:39 am
Jon,
Read the article about Fred too. When the Washington Times is skeptical of you and you’re trying to position yourself as the “conservative savior” – things aren’t looking up.
September 5th, 2007 at 8:16 am
off topic, sorry but this is priceless.
please, brownback, take a hint already.
http://news.yahoo.com/photo/070904/480/5ca0cf5624ad4cb59c18a7e2ebe0f469
September 5th, 2007 at 8:23 am
Sampo do you even have a clue as to what happened at the Big Dig before and during Romney’s administration?
September 5th, 2007 at 8:25 am
JON – OUCH!! That’s the first time I felt bad for brownback.
September 5th, 2007 at 8:26 am
Mitt, you need trucks in your ad? Red pick-ups to be exact.
The Brownback picture is awesome. Looks like the last day of school before Christmas vacation.
September 5th, 2007 at 8:53 am
Half of me thinks: It’s about time! The other half thinks Mitt should write off South Carolina altogether. In the business world Mitt knew which companies could be turned around and which ones to walk away from. South Carolina is Marginal at best. In my gut, though, I knew he would go after South Carolina and try to run the table of the early states. If he succeeds in turning this one around, his reputation as a turn-around artist par excellence will have been demonstrated beyond fear of jeopardization.
September 5th, 2007 at 9:00 am
Oh my god. Dave that’s so gushy. Those kind of posts are just what makes me revel the day when I can see this guy crash and burn.
September 5th, 2007 at 9:20 am
I think this is something Mitt must do realistically. In order to win both the primary and the general election, Mitt needs to show strength in the South. The dual liabilities of Massachusetts and Mormonism make this especially important. He cannot afford to win the primary without performing strongly in an early Southern state. Or those two liabilities will likely become insurmountable in a general election. I think going after South Carolina rather then Florida makes sense for a few reasons.
One, despite his strong poll numbers in SC, Rudy seems to be focusing more on Florida. Which means, Romney will probably be dealing with a reduced level of competition. Fighting for Florida would be a battle royale, and likely a waste of resources. Also, South Carolina is likely to come before Florida when all the dust settles. Which means a poor performance their could kill Mitt’s nascent momentum in it’s cradle. To even get to Florida with a realistic shot of being competitive, Romney needs to not embarrass himself in South Carolina. Finally, Fred is no Rudy. There’s no chance that Rudy folds like a cheap pack of cards. There’s a fairly reasonable chance that Fred does. So competing seriously in a state Fred is banking on has higher upside in the event that the hype fades away and Fred simply collapses.
That said, I don’t really like this ad terribly much. The original version was much better. There’s too many thematic elements. First you have Ann talking, which is obviously supposed to emphasize his family values. Then you’ve got various accomplishments, which is supposed to emphasize his skill-set and competence. The running is supposed to emphasize his work ethic. And the final picture with Ann again emphasizes family values. There’s no real continuity between the three themes. What does family values have to do with competence and work ethic? Those last two themes, which were the ones we saw in the first ad, fit together rather neatly. Here it almost seems like they’re just trying to throw a bunch of stuff at the wall and see what sticks. Which actually leads me to wonder whether this is a sign that they intend to compete in SC at all. It may well just be a hashed together mix of his various themes, intended as a test case to see whether or not SC is capable of responding positively to Romney.
September 5th, 2007 at 9:29 am
Hey Dave, when you were in school were you the kid that said “My Dad is Seven Feet Four and can lift cars with his bare hands!”
September 5th, 2007 at 9:30 am
Ryan,
sure do, glad you asked. out-of-control earmarks. criminal investigations. the death of Milena Del Valle.
what does romney do? throw his transportation secretary under the bus while simultaneously running away from it calling it a “Tar Baby.”
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2006/10/29/mitt_caught_in_the_act/
September 5th, 2007 at 9:35 am
Ryan,
While i realize i cannot convince you, take it from mitt himself:
google this:
olympics site:mittromney.com
and google this:
“big dig” site:mittromney.com
ask yourself why, if romney did such a great job, he touts the olympics 100 times more than the Big Dig.
September 5th, 2007 at 9:46 am
It must be very frustrating for a Giuliani, McCain, and/or Thompson supporter to watch your guy run from fight after fight they might lose; and then watch Romney refuse to concede anything. He is in there, fighting for every scrap of ground.
September 5th, 2007 at 9:50 am
Mark,
What “fight are fight” are you talking about? Besides IA – which Romney spent millions to purchase as if it were some business transaction. Where was Romney scrapping for every scrap of ground in Mass. last year? Did he run from a fight he might lose? Seeing how his numbers in in the state against Clinton show him losing 2 to 1 it seems so to me.
September 5th, 2007 at 9:51 am
er…Fight after fight
September 5th, 2007 at 9:59 am
Adam,
I would guess that Romney has spent more time in 2/3’s of the states over the last year. I know he leads in Iowa, NH, and South Carolina at least in that regard. So I’d imagine that’s what marK means.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:00 am
Whatever these Romney guys get right, there’s one thing they sure get wrong: the expectations game.
Every scrap of polling is proof to them that Romney is inevitable. If they became more realistic in their assessments, we could have a far more interesting dialogue.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:02 am
Once Romney starts focusing his time, talent, energy, and organization to the state of South Carolina, we can expect to see his poll numbers climb just like they have everywhere else he has done the same.
I agree with what was said above, it makes more sense to go after SC than FL for the two reasons the SC being before FL and SC being a cheaper investment. Winning or coming a strong 2nd will only give more momentum going into FL.
I actually think the add is pretty good (surprise ugh?). I think it hits nicely on the areas of competence, fiscal conservatism, and family values which are the core principles of South Carolina conservatism. After all, there is only so much that can be done in a 27 second AD.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:03 am
I don’t think you can call the Big Dig a failure on Romney’s part by any stretch of the imagination.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:08 am
I don’t know which Romney guys think his nomination is inevitable. I’ve been saying for months that Rudy will be the nominee, and nothing that has happened recently has done anything to dispel that conviction.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:13 am
Matt,
Rudy has been out campaigning too. And he’s certainly brushed up on his debating skills after the first debate. And aside from not participating in the non-binding IA Straw Poll I don’t see how anyone can credibly claim that Rudy has run away from anything. If you’re talking about Fred then you have my agreement. The guy has shown little in the way of actual work so far.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:16 am
Adam,
I’m not arguing that Rudy hasn’t been campaigning. He certainly has, and deserves due credit for that. But, even Jonathan Martin says Romney is widely considered to keep the most brutal schedule on either side of the field. By a fair margin. And Jonathan Martin detests Romney.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:16 am
Matt, didn’t know you thought Rudy will be the nominee. Anyhow, you seem to have been reasonable all along.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:18 am
Matt, you sound like a Howard Dean fan in 2004. He was polling at over 40% and was endorsed by the all knowing Al Gore. Everybody said the race was over, nobody could beat Dean. Then got shut down bigtime in Iowa and lost every state. Kerry was polling below 10% and after Iowa he won every state except a couple which Edwards won.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:22 am
Sampo, I don’t think you should be getting your information from the editorial page of the Boston Globe.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:23 am
Romney has been campaigning. I agree. I still don’t see how that means Rudy is running from a fight. Again I dunno. Maybe Mark was talking about Fred.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:27 am
Adam.. to think that any Republican could beat a Democrat in the presidential race is simply out of touch with reality.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:28 am
ROFL i mean in Massachusetts of course
September 5th, 2007 at 10:29 am
nate,
Sure, I want Romney to win. I think Rudy will, long-term, destroy any chance conservatism has of surviving in any form in the US. And I argued yesterday that the early states ought to be considered more important then national polls. But, frankly I’m not convinced Romney’s leads in Iowa or NH are particularly solid. In a, I think, October 1999 Wall Street Journal poll, Bush led McCain 49-3 in NH. Bush wound up losing by double digits. Now to be sure, Romney is no Bush. And none of the remaining Republican candidates have the advantage of the Straight Talk frenzy that occurred in late 1999 and early 2000. But, the point still holds meaning. It’s fairly unlikely that Romney has both Iowa and NH locked down at this stage. And if he fails to win both, I don’t see how he wins the nomination. Now this all depends quite alot on the perceptions of the other candidates.
If Rudy and Fred buy into the hype that Romney has both states locked up, and decide to focus on states like SC, FL, and even MI, then I think Romney can win both fairly easily, and has a favored path to the nomination. But, if either one of them wises up, and goes hard after one of the states (attempting to target both at this point would probably result in Romney winning both), they could well derail Romney. It’s not guaranteed of course. Romney won’t be a fool like Bush was, and skip important debates, and duck the actual people of Iowa and NH. But, I think there’s something like a 40% chance that someone can stop Romney from winning both Iowa and NH.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:30 am
Adam,
It’s possible marK was referring to Rudy’s apparent decision to abandon Iowa and NH.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:35 am
Matt, very realistic. Nice to see a Romney supporter admit how he may not win (even probably not). As a Rudy supporter, I’m entirely willing to concede how he could lose, and it’s by Mitt winning IA + NH and gaining momentum.
I think Rudy needs only 1 win before FL, plus FL, and then he’s got it all locked up. That 1 win would most likely be a targeted NH, or MI, or SC, or NV.
Here’s something that hasn’t been discussed much: I think that McCain and Fred would both prefer Rudy and each other to be the nominee over Romney. So I think McCain, Fred, and Rudy (and Newt, too) are willing to cooperate to take down Romney. That may mean cooperating so that they don’t all have to campaign in all the states, and work together to do whatever is necessary to keep Romney from winning both IA and NH.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:36 am
More on that, I think the other big candidates both dislike Romney AND realize they share the same threat of Romney gaining IA+NH+ momentum, so for both types of reasons, it’s their interests to cooperate to take Romney down.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:45 am
Yesterday for the first time Giuliani gave just a teeny tiny hint of the speeches that are to come, which will bury everybody else – he said, “I saw a man jump out of the 100th floor window to keep from burning to death.” The crowd was absolutely silent, like a funeral. People were crying. Wait till “out of all the candidates I’m the only one who actually spit the dust of Islamic terorrism out of my mouth.”
September 5th, 2007 at 10:46 am
Matt,
Maybe. But for reasons you state in #34, I’m not sure Rudy is done with NH at least. We’ll see.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:49 am
Metro,
I’m with you in your logic. I think Rudy’s best bet (as others on here have pointed out) is MI because he will appeal to social moderates, especially with Independents voting. If Rudy still looks good heading into 1/29 and wins in FL then it really is all over for Mitt. Unless something drastically changes (it still might) Mitt s dead in the water in all the populous states. We still have a way to go though and nothing is certain.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:50 am
Peter, how would that in any way increase your qualifications to be President? Great rhetoric, but insensitive substance. Giuliani should be pushing his mayoral accomplishments outside 9/11, we all know what happened that day.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:53 am
I think the others don’t like romney because they see him as their biggest threat. they are all heavyweights. nobody likes the little guy who comes in with more vigor than they are youst to.
I think Romney could lose, but i do think he is the best candidate and that he has a real shot at winning.
i see this as being between rudy and romney. to me they are the only two who have proven that can run a winning campaign against the dems. mccain could as well, but many too many republicans just don’t like him.
September 5th, 2007 at 10:57 am
Metro: So you really think that if Mitt only wins 5 of the first 7 states he’s toast? I wish you were Rudy’s campaign manager so we could test that theory. I’ll go part way with you…if Rudy wins Michigan, he probably wins the nomination, but even then it isn’t a done deal, and frankly, I don’t see him winning Michigan. As for an anti-Romney conspiracy by the other candidates, at some point that’s probably inevitable. You ever play Risk when you were a kid with more than 2 players? At some point the player with the momentum always gets ganged up on.
Adam: “Gushy?” You have a real future as a wordsmith if you decide to go in that direction. Actually, as I’ve posted many times, I like your guy quite a lot…I just like mine more. Is that ok with you?
September 5th, 2007 at 11:00 am
Ryan – I agree. Both are needed though. For most people outside the world of blogs politics is almost 100% emotional. What’s the one moment from any of the debates that anybody remembers this year? It’s when Giuliani unloaded on Ron Paul.
September 5th, 2007 at 11:03 am
Dave, I’m not sure the final calendar will have 7 states before FL. 6 at the moment. If NH moves up, FL law says it must follow a week later.
In any case, yes, if Romney wins most of the early states before FL, but Rudy wins ONE, that one is enough for Floridians to stick with Rudy. Romney simply doesn’t appeal to the two segments that make up the FL GOP.
September 5th, 2007 at 11:06 am
I don’t think anyone outside the world of blogs and politics remembers any moments from the debates, because nobody is watching them, bahaha. But I agree. He has to walk a fine line to make certain that he doesn’t get jumped on by the press though. Maybe I’m just a jaded NYC resident however.
September 5th, 2007 at 11:08 am
MetroRepublican:
“More on that, I think the other big candidates both dislike Romney”
Why do you think that the other candidates “dislike” Romney to the extent that they corroborate to take him out?
September 5th, 2007 at 11:09 am
post 45.
i still think that is wishful thinking. this assumes all of guliani’s support in florida is rock solid which is a stretch.
don’t underestimate the steam roll effect.
September 5th, 2007 at 11:12 am
new michigan poll. wow.
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/09/new_michigan_poll.html
September 5th, 2007 at 11:17 am
Jon,
I think the steam roll effect is a force, but I’ll be more inclined to believe it can propel Mitt if he can make his numbers competitive in the South. So far, he is not making gains in the region. To assume Giuliani’s numbers are solid in FL based on support from Northern transplants isn’t a whole lot different than assuming Mitt’s numbers in IA won’t change when others start to advertise. Even Romney Supporter Matt concedes this is so. Both states might stay frozen in support of both candidates. Or one or both might change. We just don’t know yet.
September 5th, 2007 at 11:18 am
Romney has a tough road to the nomination, but not because he’ll destroy himself like Dean or allow himself to get outmaneuvered like George W. Bush allowed McCain to do to him in New Hampshire. Romney is much smarter than either Dean or W. He’s far too smart to blow up or take anything for granted. He will play the best hand he has for as long as he can and hope it’s good enough to win it all. It may very well not be, but he’ll give it the best shot possible.
September 5th, 2007 at 11:29 am
Jon: Wow! A poll like that deserves an exclamation mark! I just wish it wasn’t an ARG poll so I could take it more seriously. If it’s anywhere close to being accurate, we can now officially declare the nominating process over. Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a winner! Adam gets annoyed when I talk gushy like this, but when a poll shows Mitt leading in Michigan by a 3-1 margin I get a warm gushy feeling all over.
Metro: I’m guessing that a tried and true winner appeals to both segments of the Florida GOP, whatever those are. It will appeal to however many segments you got. Michigan is 3 or 4 days before South Carolina. If Mitt wins Michigan by a 3 to 1 margin after big victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, he might even appeal to South Carolina Republicans. It would change everything.
September 5th, 2007 at 11:33 am
adam
i never said mitts support was ironclad in ia. i agree. I was simply responding to the claim made.
I however would argue that mitt’s support in ia may be stronger comparatively speaking, given the personal time and money he has spent there. then again that may be the case for guiliani in florida. i haven’t followed his movement much.
romney appears to be in second place in florida. he also has one of hte best organizations there, something Guliani does not have in IA. I don’t see florida as being out of play for him. I see it as being very possible that if Mitt took Na and ia and michigan his numbers in florida would jump making florida very competitive. he is down but not out there, just as i think guliani is down but not out in new hampshire.
we will know how strong romney’s support is in ia and nh when other starts advertising more. we will see how strong guliani’s support in florida after the first few states pick their nominee.
i personally would rather be in mitt’s shoes than rudy’s. rudy needs to cut into mitt’s gains in ia, nh, mi, and nevada. if mitt’s numbers begin to go up on sc, then rudy really has something to be nervous about. this will not be easy for romney however.
September 5th, 2007 at 11:33 am
Wait a minute now? 39 percent? We need confirmation of this. It would be one thing if there was some big event, like a debate or some big event to push Mitt to 39. But this has not happened. How can anyone seriously believe that somehow Mitt climbed to 39. Maybe he did, but for now, and based on this one lone poll, color me skeptical. If Romney is really ahead in all these states it would be showing up nationally where an entire slate of polls have been taken.
September 5th, 2007 at 11:36 am
The last three polls of MI show Mitt behind, in the lead by one or two, and now 39%. ARG is screwy, but if this is indicative of even a median between the last two polls, Romney is in prime position to take the nomination.
September 5th, 2007 at 11:39 am
ARG is definitely screwy. They do get some outlandish results. Other MI polls will have to confirm this before it is taken seriously.
September 5th, 2007 at 11:53 am
here is one taken last week. it has romney up 26 percent.
/http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/mirep8-704.html
September 5th, 2007 at 12:10 pm
Adam,
Romney didn’t get into this thing with the national rep that Rudy had. His numbers go up when he works a state, and every state that he has taken a lead in he has worked. Early on he built the strongest organization in Michigan and garnered most of the endorsements that are worth getting. Also, he has recently been campaigning in Michigan. I don’t believe that ARG polls are accurate and they have proven themselves unreliable…but this one would have to be a lot farther off than most of their polls to not be incredibly significant. This poll is so lop-sided that even if Mitt is only in the low 30’s or upper 20’s, he’s ahead by an awful lot.