Thanks to MetroRepublican for letting me know
Ohio GOP Primary 9/6 (last results from August 8 in parenthesis)
Favorability rating: Favorables- Unfavorables-Haven’t Heard Enough
Giuliani
Total-48%30%-19%
Republicans only 70%-14%-15%
Independents 51%-26%-21%
McCain
Total 44%-28%-25%
Republicans Only 59%-19%-22%
Independents 44%-26%-26%
Romney
Total 24%-20%-54%
Republicans Only 44%-7%-48%
Independents 22%-20%-57%
Thompson
Total 25%-15%-58%
Republicans Only 44%-2%-52%
Independent 25%-12%-60%
From August 28 – September 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,430 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 497 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points, and 528 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.
September 6th, 2007 at 11:05 am
When you look at the top level numbers, it doesn’t look particularly positive for Romney. However (and I know I’ll be jumped on for this by the MittSlammers), it reinforces the observation that Giuliani and McCain have pretty much gotten their message out while Romney has yet to do so (54% haven’t heard enough). If form holds, as he does that his support rises significantly.
September 6th, 2007 at 11:36 am
Rudy is a national celebrity and McCain ran well in 2000. Last year Romney had as much name ID as Tancredo and Hunter. Fred is on TV. Romney is the only “no-name” to break into the top tier this race. He did it by raising more money than Rudy. That got people’s attention.
For the record, if Mitt wins Iowa and New Hampshire followed by Michigan he will be the next US president.
September 6th, 2007 at 11:55 am
nate, you could make that argument that he will be the nominee. That argument says nothing about the general election.
September 6th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
It says everything about the general. Hillary will get the nomination. At that point there will not be one single republican at home on election night. You will see an all time high in voter turn out.
September 6th, 2007 at 12:01 pm
And for the record, I dispute that argument. All Rudy needs is to win 1 state before FL, to keep Floridians comfortable with sticking with Rudy. And that’s enough to keep CA and IL with Rudy on Mega Tuesday, along with NY, NJ, CT and DE, which are givens. Game over.
I predict Rudy will win more than 1 state before FL.
September 6th, 2007 at 12:03 pm
[...] Jump to Comments http://race42008.com/2007/09/06/ohio-quinnipiac-state-poll/ [...]
September 6th, 2007 at 12:03 pm
nate, no, “It” does not say everything about the general. You’re making a new, unrelated argument. And that argument is disproven by head-to-head polling. Rudy’s the strongest against Hillary, and even he’s behind:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_giuliani_vs_clinton-227.html
September 6th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
The RCP polls are a bit premature considering the general election is next year. Right now it’s a name ID pop quiz.
September 6th, 2007 at 1:01 pm
Metro,
All you have to do is look at the underlying “haven’t heard enough” numbers from this poll to realize how useless head-to-head polling is at this point. They’re nothing more than a beauty contest of nationally known names.
September 6th, 2007 at 1:13 pm
Giuliani has higher negatives among Republicans than Romney? Something smells fishy…
September 6th, 2007 at 4:18 pm
Rudy Remains Quite the Ladies’ Man
But Buckeyes Set Their Sights on Hillary
Among registered Republican women in Ohio
Rudy Giuliani 23%
John McCain 9%
Fred Thompson 9%
Mitt Romney 8%
Newt Gingrich 5%
General Election Match-ups
Hillary Clinton 47%
Rudy Giuliani 40%
Hillary Clinton 46%
John McCain 41%
Hillary Clinton 49%
Fred Thompson 37%
Hillary Clinton 50%
Mitt Romney 37%
September 6th, 2007 at 4:19 pm
Metro,
So you’re sticking with your 1-state-before-Florida argument? As we’ve discussed before, there will be 6 states before Florida, anbd you’re saying that if Romney wins only 5 out of the 6, Rudy’s the nominee? For the sake of argument I’ll accept your silly premise. Name the state! And if you name any state besides South Carolina, you’re delusional. Rudy could win SC, although if Fred doesn’t win it he’ll be out of the race before Super Tuesday.