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Some startling results from today. Is McCain Back?
Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll, GOP Nomination – 9/13
- Fred Thompson 28%
- Rudy Giuliani 19%
- John McCain 13%
- Mitt Romney 10%
- Mike Huckabee 5%
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
September 13th, 2007 at 10:34 am
Hmmm…If memory serves…it’s been a while since Romney has been this low in a Rasmussen poll. If he drops much lower then is shouldn’t be too hard to pass him in places like NH…
September 13th, 2007 at 10:35 am
looking like mittmentum train has left the building.
September 13th, 2007 at 10:38 am
I’m a staunch Romney supporter… I GAVE 10 BUCKS TO THE GUY! but it seriously does look like he’s in big trouble. I hate to say it. =(
September 13th, 2007 at 10:40 am
I love how one poll can make people say that Romney’s campaign is over. He has been doing well in the polls for the last few weeks and you people said that those numbers weren’t around long enough to show upward movement. But, the second a downward trend is shown in a single poll, that automatically means that Romney is sinking. Use the same standard across the board or just don’t say anything.
September 13th, 2007 at 10:40 am
If Newt Gingrich jumps in, the nomination fight could well go to the convention.
September 13th, 2007 at 10:42 am
Nick Thompson: ‘I’m a staunch Romney supporter… I GAVE 10 BUCKS TO THE GUY!’
Is this a joke? If ’staunch Romney supporters’ only give hm 10 dollars, it’s no wonder that he’s in big trouble.
September 13th, 2007 at 10:44 am
Fred is getting a good bump at the expense of just about everyone. Who has the most to lose from the Fred bump – Rudy. The problem with Rudy is that although he polls well, he isn’t leading in any early states (except maybe FL) and isn’t leading nationally either. As for Romney, Fred has simply taken Rudy’s spot as the guy that polls the best nationally, but is still behind in the early states. Now if Fred starts pulling ahead in places like IA, NH, MI, WY, NV, then Romney has a really big problem.
September 13th, 2007 at 10:53 am
Rudy and Romney hurt by Fred’s announcement. Not really surprising. Let’s see how it plays out in the next week or so.
September 13th, 2007 at 10:55 am
The comments about money and Romney are appropriate. If he doesn’t
win the third quarter money primary, he is in trouble. If he
does, with the problems that Rudy and Fred are having, it will probably carry
him to the nomination. We’ll soon find out about the quality of his organization
and the depth of his support.
September 13th, 2007 at 11:00 am
Hmm, this really doesn;t mean much for Romney. Romney has been banking on a early state strategy and putting very little stock in National polling. He had a little bump over the last couple weeks, but it seems to be back to July levels. It’s really not a worry, as long as he is perfoming well in early states he still is in the best position.
Now Rudy, 19%?????
It’s the Rudbots who have been saying Rudy is the “National Front runner” blah blah blah. His claim to fame was National recognition. It looks like that game is over.
September 13th, 2007 at 11:07 am
Thompson is messing up the race… Let’s hope this is a temporary mess-over of the polls.
September 13th, 2007 at 11:09 am
Guiliani down to 19 percent? The polls has gotten really silly, folks.
September 13th, 2007 at 11:09 am
Guiliani down to 19 percent? The polls have gotten really silly, folks.
September 13th, 2007 at 11:09 am
All of this polls are as sturdy as clay. So far there is no reason to believe that Thompson can perform in a debate or on the trail as well as the other candidates. Soon we’ll see if he can…
September 13th, 2007 at 11:11 am
I think since Huckabee has rolled back to 5 percent that he is officially out of contention. Hate to say it, but true.
September 13th, 2007 at 11:12 am
Adam,
Good point. It looks like Thompson gets a great bump, but does he have the lump in the sump to keep away the dump?
September 13th, 2007 at 11:15 am
I don’t think McCain is back. I think that Q3 numbers will kill him along with his poor showing in IA come election time. He should have learned from his mistake in 2000 when he missed the Iowa straw poll. McCain doesn’t know how to campaign, and Q3 numbers will prove that point.
September 13th, 2007 at 11:20 am
Fred is not looking good so far. I don’t think these numbers will last. he fumbled talking about giving bin laden due process and then changed his mind and then changed it again.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-thompson11sep11,1,157750.story?coll=la-politics-campaign
he admitted to those in south carolina that he is not a churchgoer and faith won’t be a big part of his campaign. and also the day of his announcement flip flopped on his support for a gay marriage ban amendment alienating the eager evangelical vote.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20070911/pl_bloomberg/a23dx3a8oufe
then to make things worse, he took two days off, tuesday and wednesday, after a grueling 5 days on teh campaign trail rienforcing the fact that he is lazy and doesn’t have what it takes to go the distance.
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/2008-and-counting-leaked-poll-shows-a-bump-for-newest–gop-contender-2007-09-13.html
He is not impressing. I imagine and the next two debates he is going to get blasted with difficult questions as well on mccain feingold, abortion, and many other things. George Will had a good article on him today.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/09/is_a_fred_thompson_campaign_ne.html
If I were Rudy I would’nt be too worried. There is a chance his ‘perception’ as this conservative alternative will hold up, but he definetly has not proven to be good and pushign back the criticism.
September 13th, 2007 at 11:20 am
Is McCain back? Is McCain back? No.
September 13th, 2007 at 11:22 am
Kevin J u r 100% correct
September 13th, 2007 at 11:29 am
The day we see Romney’s RCP averages take a sharp trend downward in IA, NH, MI, and NV is when you people can start hailing his downfall. Right now, we Romney supporters are perched pretty high up in those states still, while Rudy is losing his status as national frontrunner.
September 13th, 2007 at 11:31 am
TLG, may guess is that Tommy made the headline not so much because he thought
McCain was back, but because he didn’t want to sound like he was braging about his candidate being
ahead of your’s by double digits. The real news isn’t that McCain has gone about four points, the real news
September 13th, 2007 at 11:34 am
I hit the enter button before I wanted too. The real story isn’t anything about McCain, it is that Thompson
opened an allmost double digit lead. Against a cadidate who was leading him even in this poll I believe,
and who was leading by double digits in other polls.
September 13th, 2007 at 11:35 am
John,
I took the headline directly from Rasmussen’s observation that is linked on top.
September 13th, 2007 at 11:39 am
I lean towards Romney with some likes for the other candidates as a disclaimer.
Given that, I think Romney supporters should be more cautious with their confidence in their leads in the early states. the race has just begun. it is inevitable that the campaigns will start to go negative. Guliani has a ton of cash to do it too. romney also has some gaping targets, however legitimate they are. all the competitors do.
so, let the race begin. any conclusions at this point are mostly speculation. even mccain could make a comeback even though it is very unlikely. what if something amazing in iraq happened?
anyway, my personal opinion is that it comes down to a rudy romney fight. fred waited too long and messes up too much. mccain is hated by too many. huckabee is too liberal and can’t make money.
barring no suprises in the money game during the third quarter, i see romney and guliani eventually duking it out until the end. but like i said, pure speculation
September 13th, 2007 at 11:42 am
Okay so it was just a bad guess. I do think it is of note that McCain the only one of
the top candidates that has not been nagatively effected by Thompson’s announcement, Considering that McCain and Thompson
really have quite a bit of similarities. I suppose the reason is that all of McCain soft support allready left him.
September 13th, 2007 at 11:46 am
[...] Polling is showing that the US of A is in agreement with Senator McCain’s staunch “no surrender” position with the lastest polls putting him back in third place below Giuliani and Thompson. Source race42008. [...]
September 13th, 2007 at 11:59 am
Fred’s entry is hurting Rudy the most, read the article, it seems a few of the posters on this site pegged this as happening when Fred entered the race.
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2007/09/13/2007-09-13_why_americas_mayor_will_not_be_the_gops_.html
Interesting article
September 13th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
Kucinich is roughly as electable over giuliani as Romney is electable over Clinton.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/kucinich_trails_giuliani_thompson
giuliani +12
Clinton vs Romney
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_clinton-230.html
clinton +12.7 (RCP average)
September 13th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
I see McCain has been moved back to fourth on the Power Rankings and Newt has been moved off the
list. I guess my call of shennanigans worked.
September 13th, 2007 at 12:34 pm
The real problem with the poll is that it is supported by literally nothingness. Other than generalities Thompson has not said much of anything, especially not anything to distinguish himself (except he doesn’t like NYC gun laws). So what the poll really reflects is discontent with or lack of knowledge of the other candidates, although I think McCain and Giuliani are pretty well known.
I had not heard that Thompson was already on vacation after a week of campaigning. The first thing I thought of was John Kerry off water skiing and how much people hated that.
September 13th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
I am not opposed to Fred, but I get the feeling he is a lightweight upstairs. For this reason, I am curious to see what is going to happen as Fred starts making lots of campaign appearances, making lots of statements, and appearing in debates. As someone posted above, the first week of his campaign hasn’t instilled me with confidence (e.g., his church attendance comments, his Osama should get due process statements, etc.).
September 13th, 2007 at 12:58 pm
The other day there was some discussion here about “connecting” with voters. Please look at the 2 self described “stay at home moms” in this video and ask yourself if Fred Thompson or Mitt Romney would ever click with people like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9P6_OfLKWLg
September 13th, 2007 at 1:05 pm
To say that he is so ‘nice’ is not how I would describe Rudy. And yes, given Mitt’s ‘good looks’ and his ‘business executive experience’ runnings things, I think that he would connect well with theses stay at home moms.
Fred though, not so sure. However he was up until just a few years ago, quite the ladies man from my understanding. And even though I am not impressed with Fred so far, I think one thing he has going for him is that when he talks people feel at ease with him. he doesn’t come off as pretentious or faking. He seems genuine, whethe he is or not.
September 13th, 2007 at 1:06 pm
Ray,
Thanks for the post. Obviously I agree with the article. But I wonder why no mention was made of Michigan? To my mind, Michigan is the 900 pound gorilla among the early states. It’s less surprising that he made no mention of Wyoming, but Michigan? If Michigan stays on January 15th on the calendar, I believe the outcome there will determine the nominee. It can take any momentum that Mitt has built up before then and multiply it times 10–if he wins it. It can also squash his momentum if he loses. It really is that important.
September 13th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
Jon, let me tell you why I respectfully disagree. You simply never see Romney wander among the people like that. It just doesn;t exist. If it does, where is it on video? If you search hard enough you can find literally dozens of Giuliani events like this on Google. I can’t find even a single one of Romney. This indicates to me that Romney really doesn’t get retailing, or that he is not good at it.
September 13th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
I doubt Iowa and NH will remain in stasis from now until January. I’d not be surprised to see an upset in either state.
September 13th, 2007 at 1:21 pm
Peter you couldn’t be more wrong. Mitt has done literally dozens of events and parades where he’s known for feverishly racing around shaking hands and getting to know voters.
September 13th, 2007 at 1:23 pm
#35 Peter,
I just watched Romney on Cspan last night walk around Littleton NH for an hour talking to shop owners and citizens. I’m more interested in a candidate who can get the job done and less concerned with someone who is just schmooozing. Lets face it, they are all politicians so walking around with the common folk is only a very small part of the job/campaigning. Mitt has done over 400 events including his town hall meetings “ask Mitt anything”, I would say that he is definately in touch with the people regardless of what you can find on youtube or google.
September 13th, 2007 at 1:27 pm
#16, wow, that was a good laugh.
#32, I guess we’ll find out who clicked with voters the best when election time comes around.
September 13th, 2007 at 1:27 pm
“Romney doesn’t get retailing or isn’t good at it”
He has done over 400 EVENTS in NA nad IA! It appearst to me het ‘gets’ retail politicing and is doing quite a good job given that his poll numbers there have risen.
FYI. I attended CPAC and saw first hand Romney connect with people. I don’t know if he is the best, but I think he is very personable and connects well with voters. He took time to speak with me and every person individually that attended his reception. There was a lady there from Iowa that said she had met him once in IA and was ’smitten’ with him. Just because no such events are on youtube, doesn’t mean they don’t happen.
I respect your opinion as well, but we can agree to disagree.
Either way, it is good becuase whoever takes on Hillary has got to be good at everything.
September 13th, 2007 at 1:38 pm
Giuliani really taking it to Hillary today.
http://www.joinrudy2008.com/blog/index/355
September 13th, 2007 at 1:40 pm
Jon Galt, please choose another username. Ayn Rand was the arch-enemy of the marriage between social conservatives and limited govt conservatives. It’s ridiculous to associate that username with Mitt Romney, and an offense to Ayn Rand. And shows a lack of understanding of her, too.
September 13th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
#34 Dave,
I’m not sure why the article doesn’t mention MI or WY. I agree with you, Michigan will be very important for what ever candidate can win.
September 13th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
Uh huh. I second that, Metro.
September 13th, 2007 at 2:10 pm
LOL
Kucinich is as electable over Giuliani as Romney is over Clinton. (insert batman clips of “oof” “pow” “zoweey”)
on RAS today:
Kucinich is roughly as electable over giuliani as Romney is electable over Clinton. (Giuliani 12 points above Kucinich)
and according to realclear politics average of romney vs hillary, hillary wins by 12 too.
look it up if you so desire..
September 13th, 2007 at 2:33 pm
Check out the latest FOX poll. Rudy has a 12 point lead.
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/091307_release_web.pdf
September 13th, 2007 at 2:52 pm
Metro,
I disagree. Mitt is a mover!! He worked in MA to get the government off the back of business and he fired hundreds of wasteful government employees. He is a capitalist, a mover. He created hundreds of jobs as an entreprenuer and is one of the most succesful businessmen in the country.
I think one can at the least argue that he represents in some ways some of those characters in Ayn Rands book. Is he the epitomy of Jon Galt? No. Do I understand that Ayn Rand was an atheist? Yes. So what? I am not associating all of Ayn Rand’s philosphy with Mitt Romney. I happen to support Mitt Romney and I happen to like Atlas Shrugged. You can read more into it if you want.
besides, everytime i read your username it makes me think of a dude in the hair and nail shop getting a pedicure talking about politics but I don’t tell you to change your name.
September 13th, 2007 at 3:00 pm
Yes, but you’re using it in the context of supporting a Presidential candidate and his associated politics.
I first saw “Metro Republicans” used to characterize the appeal of Romney and Giuliani.
September 13th, 2007 at 3:16 pm
Metro,
My 12-year-old daughter’s middle name is Ayn, guess who I named her for? Admittedly, I’m an ex-Objectivist, but I’ve read just about everything she ever wrote and used to teach courses in libertarian philosophy. For you to tell me that I can’t support Mitt Romney and still honor Rand’s memory is even more lame than some of your other views. Romney is a capitalist that has been called “a capitalist’s capitalist” by Larry Kudlow, “the best businessman in North America” by Jim Cramer, “Adam Smith on steroids” by Laura Ingraham, and the best candidate for the economy by Barrons. This man has turned around more than 150 different companies! Have you ever read Atlas Shrugged? Rand is turning over in her grave!
September 13th, 2007 at 3:52 pm
Dave, I’m not saying that. You’re not the one supporting Romney with an Ayn Rand moniker. And you recognize you have now changed your philosophy away from hers.
September 13th, 2007 at 4:16 pm
Jon Galt represents a ‘mover’ (if you’ve read atlas shrugged you would understand what I mean by that). There is nothing inconsistent with bieng a mitt supporter with the moniker Jon Galt. Jon Galt is a character that hates government intrusion and values individual responsiblity and hard work. He is not ashamed of the money he makes becuase it represents hard work and purpose. As Dave mentioned above, Mitt resembles such a character.
Furthermore, Galt is just a character. he does not represent all of Ayn Rand’s philosophy. He is a single character in her book. Comparing Mitt to John Galt is not the same as comparing mitt’s actions with ayn rands whole philosphy.
Be bugged if you want, I don’t care.
September 13th, 2007 at 4:18 pm
Jon Galt represents a ‘mover’ (if you’ve read atlas shrugged you would understand what I mean by that). There is nothing inconsistent with bieng a mitt supporter with the moniker Jon Galt. Jon Galt is a character that hates government intrusion and values individual responsiblity and hard work. He is not ashamed of the money he makes becuase it represents hard work and purpose. As Dave mentioned above, Mitt resembles such a character.
Furthermore, Galt is just a character. he does not represent all of Ayn Rand’s philosophy. He is a single character in her book. Comparing Mitt to John Galt is not the same as comparing mitt’s actions with ayn rands whole philosphy. I may understand your point of view if I my moniker were ‘any rand.’
Be bugged if you want, I don’t care.
September 13th, 2007 at 4:21 pm
Romney is not in major trouble, not by a long shot – but now the national polls are all screwed up, and even the state polls are spewing strange results.
The problem now is that we have absolutely NO CLUE where the race stands – which makes it very hard to speculate on how the race is going to play out.
September 13th, 2007 at 4:22 pm
By the way, it’s “John” Galt.
I’ve read every book and article Ayn Rand wrote. (You spelled her name wrong, too.)
September 13th, 2007 at 4:24 pm
There you go.
I am proud of you for reading every book and article she wrote. Your awsome.
who called the grammar police.
September 13th, 2007 at 4:26 pm
my apologies to everybody else for this lame commentary between metro and I.
September 13th, 2007 at 4:32 pm
Interesting thread! By the way, here’s a link to Sheriff Arpaio of Arizona endorsing
Mitt Romney: http://www.californiansformitt.blogspot.com
Metro, what was the name of the movie where Gary Cooper played an architect who did his
own thing and didn’t conform? I think Ayn Rand may have written the book the movie was
based on. (This, from someone who has NOT read any book or article that she has
written.)
September 13th, 2007 at 4:40 pm
the fountainhead.
September 13th, 2007 at 4:42 pm
Metro,
I’m not in lock-step with Objectivism any more, but she understood economics and the importance of individual achievement. Atlas Shrugged was about individuals who knew how to work, how to make money, how to solve human problems, how to create. Do you know anybody who has done a better job of this than Romney? He has created hundreds of thousands of jobs, and kept more than 150 companies from going out of existence. Dagny Taggert was hard-pressed to keep a single railroad going. I suggest you re-read Capitalism, The Unknown Ideal. Mitt’s life epitomizes its message.
September 13th, 2007 at 4:57 pm
Thanks, John Galt! Looks like I need to read some of Ayn Rand’s books.
Here’s one of my favorite quotes: “Nothing keeps an argument going like two people who
don’t know what they’re talking about.”
Not to say that John Galt and Metro don’t know what they’re talking about, but I’ve found
that oftentimes people assume much in discussions and arguments.
We assume that others agree with our definition of a word or issue.
One of my liberal, agnostic New York friends was once attacking me for not being a
feminist. She assumed I wasn’t a feminist because I was from Indiana, conservative and
raised in a strong Christian home.
I stopped her and said, “Melissa, wait — what is YOUR definition of feminism.”
She told me her definition. Then I told her mine.
Guess what? We both had the same definition.
“From presumption comes nothing but strife.” – Proverbs 13:10
My guess is that during this primary season, with the many different candidates the GOP
has, “conservatism” may be a word and concept that needs to be redefined and clarified.