Market Research Group Michigan GOP Primary Poll, conducted Sept. 13th-19th, 200
- Rudy Giuliani 27%
- Mitt Romney 13%
- Fred Thompson 13%
- John McCain 6%
- Mike Huckabee 5%
“Tom Shields, president of Marketing Resource Group said, ‘Rudy Giuliani has increased his strength among Michigan Republicans while John McCain’s effort has suffered a complete collapse. Neither Romney or Thompson have been able to take advantage to step out front as the alternative to Giuliani.’”
September 21st, 2007 at 2:20 pm
Romney lost half of his support? I don’t think so.
Outlier.
September 21st, 2007 at 2:21 pm
So was the poll with Mitt @ 39.
We need more Mich polls, and by reputable pollsters.
September 21st, 2007 at 2:22 pm
how did slick willard manage to go from 39% in the ARG poll two weeks ago to 13% today?
September 21st, 2007 at 2:23 pm
seriously Kavon, you guys are animals in getting these polls out quickly!
September 21st, 2007 at 2:23 pm
I don’t believe this one.
September 21st, 2007 at 2:23 pm
That, or the earlier poll was an outlier. Regardless, Romney will make a strong showing in Michigan when it counts.
September 21st, 2007 at 2:24 pm
interesting. what is the deal with the mi polls? talk about schizophrenia
September 21st, 2007 at 2:28 pm
What the hell is going on in Michigan?? lol
I mean, ARG was an outlier, but what about the previous poll with Romney leading? If that was an outlier, why did both outliers have Romney leading?
September 21st, 2007 at 2:30 pm
YAWN.
Looks like MI is another state that can’t seem to produce consistant polling.
September 21st, 2007 at 2:38 pm
The previous 2 Michigan polls had Romney leading. The last Detroit News poll had him at 25%, and ARG had him at 39%. It would be nice to know what the real number is, but it probably isn’t 13%. Michigan is the key early state, so the real numbers for Mitt and Rudy in this state are likely to decide the nomination.
September 21st, 2007 at 2:39 pm
I think that we can all agree that Mitt Romney isn’t at 39% in Michigan.
September 21st, 2007 at 2:41 pm
TLG, agreed!
September 21st, 2007 at 2:43 pm
I don’t think 13% for Romney is too bad of an outlier. A Detroit News poll last month put Romney at 12. He’s definitely not at 39% though.
I think almost every poll that has come out of Michigan in the past few months has been an “outlier.”
I’d guess Romney and Giuliani are actually both around the mid-20’s, and Fred and McCain are in the mid-teens. That seems more reasonable, based on all the recent polls.
September 21st, 2007 at 2:54 pm
Plug alert! Mike Huckabee interview and Jason Wright of Political Derby on the radio at 5 PM today
http://political-buzz.com/2007/09/21/political-dispatch-from-politicalbuzzcom-live-today-5pm/
September 21st, 2007 at 2:55 pm
“the mid-20’s” is not specific enough. We need actual numbers to know who is really leading in this race.
September 21st, 2007 at 2:56 pm
I would agree that this looks like an outlier, but the momentum in Michigan is definitely with Giuliani and a loss to Rudy here would be very bad for Romney.
September 21st, 2007 at 3:01 pm
” but the momentum in Michigan is definitely with Giuliani ”
and you base that on…?
September 21st, 2007 at 3:03 pm
Agree that this is not a good poll. Looking at Mitt’s fund raising numbers in Michigan, he’s raised a lot more money than the other candidates there. I think he’ll do well come primary time.
September 21st, 2007 at 3:17 pm
Well now this is interesting. We’ve had to hear for the longest time how Romney was the Early State Leader (TM) and now he’s moved into a statistical tie with Giuliani and who knows what the hell but certainly not the undisputed leader in MI. Add that to falling to 9 percent nationally and Romney has had a horrible accumulation of bad news since that weird smile answer to the military service question in the last debate. This poll probably is an outlier, but if Romney isn’t ahead in MI and NH then he isn’t really the early state leader.
September 21st, 2007 at 3:18 pm
“now he’s moved into a statistical tie with Giuliani” …in NH
September 21st, 2007 at 3:18 pm
Lol Palin do you mean to say the momentum is with romney and a win for rudy would be very bad for romney? Or the momentum is with giuliani and a win for Romney would be bad for giuliani
September 21st, 2007 at 3:23 pm
Adam, interesting isn’t it? Everyone harping about how Rudy will be the big loser pre-2/5.
As it stands now, Rudy is a solid second in Iowa, statistically tied for first in South Carolina, probably just a hair’s length behind Romney in New Hampshire and Michigan with Romney on the decline and Rudy on the rise, and leads in Florida.
If Rudy does second in Iowa, wins Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida, and then sweeps 2/5, the nomination is his.
September 21st, 2007 at 3:23 pm
“wins Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida”
*and does first or second in New Hampshire…
September 21st, 2007 at 3:24 pm
I bet this is not a poll of likely republican voters.
September 21st, 2007 at 3:25 pm
Agreed, JS.
This idea that Romney has the only clear path to the nomination set forth by Ruffini and others is complete nonsense. If I’m running for president I would much rather be in Giuliani’s position than Romney’s.
September 21st, 2007 at 3:38 pm
I don’t think either is in a commanding position. romney leads and does well in ia and nh but that could esaily change given how fluid the race is becoming.
giuliani has lost his national lead edge and is not leading really in any of the leading states, inlcuding florida now.
iw oud say neither one looks all that great. thompson, well who knows with hat guy. he obviously sucks but the people don’t seem to relaize it. he might be ni best shape if you want to put your crap into these polls. he is ahead in sc (which usually whoever they pick wins the nomiatino i beileve) hei s tied now in florida and is essentially tied in the national polls. but he sucks and htat has to give hope to rudy and romney supporters that this guys crappiness will catch up with him in the view of the voters.
I would say iti s a three way race right now. I wouldn’t give the edge to anybody. i think all three have a legitimate shot.
September 21st, 2007 at 3:39 pm
The fact is, Mitt has peaked in Iowa and New Hampshire, his balloon is going to start coming back down to earth, and Rudy is on the rise in those states. It’s going to be very advantageous to be in Rudy’s shoes in Q4 when Romney has spent himself down to a few million bucks and Rudy finally unloads the $20 mill he’s been saving up until now onto the scene and just blitzes the states. Rudy is a sleeping giant in these states, and it helps more than hurts that people keep underestimating him and lowering the bar for him.
September 21st, 2007 at 3:44 pm
“The fact is”
…that you have absolutely no clue what you are talking about, and are basing you statements without any conclusive proof. You say Romney has “peaked”, yet people have been saying that for months.
September 21st, 2007 at 3:47 pm
don’t be suprised if mitts numbers fall in ia or nh. the game is one right now. too early to be saying antyhing. the goal is not to be up in polls, but to win. so much can change so fast. mitt’s lead over the summer could change, giuliani’s leads over thes ummer could change to.
the race is so fluid right now, I imagine in mnay of these statse as the campaign heats up we will see numbers even out and then two of the best candidates will begin to separate themselves out from the pack. probaly rudy adn romeny given their money advantage.
romney supporters are not smart to calim he has a lock on ia an nh. the real fight has just begun.
September 21st, 2007 at 3:48 pm
“giuliani has lost his national lead edge and is not leading really in any of the leading states, inlcuding florida now.”
Not so much. Giuliani leads by 5.3 in the RCP average nationally and continues to lead in every national poll except Rasmussen. Even in Rasmussen, Fred was up 9 within the last two weeks and today’s tracking poll shows both Thompson and Giuliani tied at 24.
In FL, the one poll that showed Thompson leading was an Insider Advantage poll released last week. This week’s incarnation of the poll shows Giuliani leading and Giuliani leads the polling average in FL by 5.7 points. If you want to say that Romney “leads and does well in NH” with a polling average of only 4.7 points above his competitors than you have to grant the same to Giuliani in FL.
September 21st, 2007 at 3:57 pm
“romney supporters are not smart to calim he has a lock on ia an nh. the real fight has just begun.”
no doubt Romeny cannot afford to slack off, but the idea adopted by Rudy supporters that Romney is finished is even worse of a claim to make, so you have to expect Romney fans to defend their candidate.
September 21st, 2007 at 4:04 pm
Adam, JS,
Romney does control his own destiny and does have the only clear path to the nomination. You can call being 12 points down in Iowa being in a solid 2nd place place if you want. You can overlook the fact that only 1 poll (and only by 1 per cent) in the last 6 months in New Hampshire has had Rudy ahead there, and that was almost 3 months ago. But what you can’t overlook is the fact that there is no early state where Rudy has an indisputable lead. He’s probably ahead in Florida right now, but Florida comes at the end of January. Rudy wins this thing if he can win Michigan. Don’t hold your breath.
September 21st, 2007 at 4:46 pm
Those who think that Romney is really falling in New Hampshire may want to think again. Take a look at this:
Research 2000, GOP New Hampshire Primary, July 11, 2007: Romney 27% / Giuliani 20%
Franklin Pierce University / WBZ Poll, GOP New Hampshire Primary, September 11, 2007: Romeny 30% / Giuliani 23%
The fact is, Romney has never had a run-away lead in New Hampshire that has been shown in multiple polls. Romney is still strong in New Hampshire, though he will have to work to keep Rudy at bay.
September 21st, 2007 at 4:54 pm
“Romney does control his own destiny and does have the only clear path to the nomination.”
Ok Dave. I marking that down. On 9/21/07 you just crowned Romney the nominee. What you’re overlooking is the trend in NH, my friend. Romney is going down. And the longer he is mired in single digits nationally, the less of a chance he has to hold his slim lead. You and those like you are doing Rudy a favor though. You’re keeping expectations for Romney high and politics is all about momentum. Ask Jim Webb and Jon Tester.
September 21st, 2007 at 4:57 pm
Hey, look! ACT Blog is picking and choosing polling!
Two can play at that game!
Zogby May 15th, 2007 Romney 35% / Giuliani 19% – Romney +16
Rasmussen September 16th, 2007 Romney 25% / Giuliani 22% – Romney +3
Hooray for cherry-picking!
September 21st, 2007 at 4:58 pm
Or, even better:
Hart/McLaughlin July 24th-July 26th, 2007 Romney 33% / Giuliani 17% – Romney +16.0
Rasmussen September 16th, 2007 Romney 25% / Giuliani 22% – Romney +3
September 21st, 2007 at 5:00 pm
So, yes, he has fallen considerably:
R/G/M/T/H/Winner+X
RCP Average 08/26 – 09/16 27.5 22.8 12.5 11.5 5.3 Romney +4.7
Rasmussen 09/16 – 09/16 25 22 12 19 4 Romney +3.0
Franklin Pierce 09/11 – 09/14 30 23 14 8 2 Romney +7.0
LA Times/Bloomberg 09/06 – 09/10 28 23 12 11 6 Romney +5.0
American Res. Group 08/26 – 08/29 27 23 12 8 9 Romney +4.0
Rasmussen 08/09 – 08/09 32 20 11 11 3 Romney +12.0
American Res. Group 07/26 – 07/30 26 27 10 13 1 Giuliani +1.0
Hart/McLaughlin 07/24 – 07/26 33 17 16 13 3 Romney +16.0
CNN/WMUR 07/09 – 07/17 33 18 12 13 2 Romney +15.0
September 21st, 2007 at 5:56 pm
Adam,
The event that caused that was a poll in Michigan that showed Romney ahead by 26 points. If Romney wins Michigan by any points at all, I contend that he will win the nomination. Whether that will happen or not is unclear. My gut tells me that Romney will win Michigan, and so does my reason. If Rudy wins either New Hampshire or Michigan, he probably wins the nomination. I don’t think he will either.
September 21st, 2007 at 7:22 pm
These polls make us Floridians look normal
September 21st, 2007 at 8:12 pm
““The fact isâ€
…that you have absolutely no clue what you are talking about, and are basing you statements without any conclusive proof. You say Romney has “peakedâ€, yet people have been saying that for months.”
Okay, here’s some conclusive proof. Mitt Romney has completely saturated the Iowa and New Hampshire media, he’s been rising in the polls, gaining supporters, and he did great for a while. Now he’s reached a peak. Look at the RCP averages and trend lines. He’s hit a high point, and now his trend has become a gradual downward one. Considering how well the people of Iowa and New Hampshire already know him, he can’t rely on making a first impression on uninformed voters anymore. Everybody already knows who he is, and if they don’t support him now, the odds are a bit more against him winning those voters. Rudy, on the other hand, is just being personally introduced to these voters and now HE is on the rise. I base this on the generally trusted RCP averages and trend lines for these states.
These trends are most likely to continue themselves because Mitt Romney has most likely spent himself down to a few million dollars in his bank account, and Rudy is going to have $20-some million in his bank account that he hasn’t used yet. Even with a $5 million loan, Romney is going to be significantly out-funded by Rudy going into Q4. I base all of this assessment on Marc Ambinder’s reliably accurate fundraising predictions.
This means that Rudy is going to be making his first (if you don’t count 9/11) major impression on many Iowa and New Hampshire voters, and he’s going to have over 20 million dollars to do it.
I don’t think Romney has “peaked” in general. The nation as a whole hardly knows him. I think he has a lot of potential to raise his national poll numbers. Iowa and New Hampshire are a different story, however. Like I said, people in those states know him and know him well. By being the first to heavily campaign in the Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney picked a lot of low hanging fruit, so to speak, but now that he has so saturated the states, it’s going to make it harder for him to significantly upend the slow donward slope he now finds himself in–he doesn’t have the tabula rasa advantage. That’s pretty standard political logic.
September 21st, 2007 at 9:19 pm
Emtee (#18), and Mitt pretty much has endorements of every state Republican officals, and many local, too. So yeah, I am interesting to know how this polls is conducted. Kavon, is there a link?