Great article by Sam Youngman at the Hill on how many of the pundits just don’t understand the GOP candidates:

GOP candidates enjoy DC disconnect
By Sam Youngman
September 27, 2007

The 2008 Republican presidential candidates have been told from the outset why they will fail in a quest for the presidency.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s positions on gun control and his personal history were supposed to disqualify him for Southern, evangelical Republican voters. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney would suffer a similar fate because of his religion and his evolving views on gay rights and abortion.

When former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.) formally entered the race earlier this month, a series of gaffes on the Southern campaign trail hinted that he might not be the savior of the Republican Party that Washington pundits imagined.

Yet analysts, reporters and pollsters are noting such alleged weaknesses have not stopped any of the aforementioned candidates from doing well in a wide variety of states and with a wide variety of voters.

“The Beltway is bounded on all sides by reality,” the head of the Southern Baptist Convention’s Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission, Richard Land, said. “There is a Beltway mentality, and I have seen it get really good people after a while.”

The Republican candidates have struggled in some predictable places, giving some credence to the conventional wisdom emanating from Washington. The perceived opening for Thompson to get in the race is evidence of that, as is the ongoing fluidity of the GOP race.

But Giuliani continues to be considered the national front-runner three weeks after Labor Day, Romney is polling well in the early states and Thompson seems to be enjoying a bump when many analysts thought early missteps and a prolonged flirtation with a bid might end his candidacy as early as it began.

“Republican primary voters seem to be the most misunderstood segment of America to Beltway pundits,” Thompson spokeswoman Karen Hanretty said. “Fred Thompson is receiving enthusiastic response from conservatives because he talks about the principles of limited government, federalism and individual liberty – it’s that simple.”

Last year, when Giuliani was considering getting into the race, political analyst Charlie Cook joked that the New Yorker would have a better chance of winning the Tour de France than of winning the Republican nomination.

More than a year later, Giuliani is in a statistical tie in the early-voting conservative bastion of Republican South Carolina, and Cook says the former mayor’s odds have improved – though he contends they remain long.

Land and others, including Reps. Ron Lewis (R-Ky.), who is supporting Romney, and Gresham Barrett (R-S.C.), who is supporting Thompson, said a stereotype has developed over the years that pigeonholes Southern, conservative Republican voters as single-issue voters.

“They’re more interested in what’s in a man’s heart, and what kind of leader he’ll be,” Gresham said. “I’m not saying there’s not a litmus test. With some voters there are.”

A political science professor at Clemson University in South Carolina, Stephen Wainscott, said the continued belief by some that “God, guns and gays” are the prevailing issues on conservative voters’ minds is a remnant of the conventional wisdom that applied before the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, perpetuated to some degree by the 2004 election – in part by the turnout associated with ballot initiatives dealing with gay marriage.

“There are single-issue voters, but we’re not really talking about a great deal of people,” Wainscott said.

He added that in 2004, he looked forward to 2008 and guessed that Giuliani would be the party’s nominee. But in 2000, Wainscott said, Giuliani would not have been formidable, as conservative voters, in the absence of pressing national security matters, would focus more on his domestic, cultural record and personal issues.

“There is an undercurrent of faith [now] as a result of what he claims to have done on 9/11,” Wainscott said.

Following the terrorist attacks of 2001, “hot-button issues … might [have] become lukewarm issues,” he added.

Lewis said pundits and analysts focus more on past elections and the game of politics while actual voters, like those in his district, are more solution-oriented.

“It’s time really for Washington to put … aside politics,” Lewis said.

Land contends that the specific stereotyping of evangelical voters ignores their “fierce individualism,” and that voters with “funny accents” are more sophisticated than they are given credit for being.

Land said because evangelicals are underrepresented in the national media and punditocracy, “they really don’t understand people of serious religious faith.” Add to that a rural background and a Southern accent, and “you’ve got the perfect storm for prejudice and assumptions.”

“The media probably ought to rotate people out of the Washington bureaus into the real world,” Land said.

This has been my argument for a while now. Regardless of whether you agree with them all of the time, some of the time, or little, they don’t have their finger on the pulse of mainstream America; whether in the north, the south, the rustbelt, or anywhere else for that matter.

Headline on DrudgeReport.com: Dem Plan Uses Taxes to Fight Climate Change

Wow. Democrats want to raise taxes? I’m blown away. The taxes would include:

50 cents per gallon gasoline tax

$50 per ton carbon tax for industries burning fossil fuels

Taxes on certain homeowners, because “it’s only fair to tax those who buy large suburban houses and cause urban sprawl.”

The Dems may be out of the majority by 2010 if they can get this disaster through Congress and across Hillary’s desk…

Your thoughts please…

Tonight is Rudy’s National House Party night, where an estimated 1,000 homes across America will gather to see a live message from Hizzoner.

In an innovative move, a person who cannot make it to a party can still see Rudy’s video by making a $10 contribution (see here for the story.)

More to come on  these festivities tomorrow.

Need I say more?

Funnily, on this issue, I agree with him 100%.

From the Amspec:

With Newt Gingrich’s group holding its Solutions Day today, specualtion is rife over wether he will jump into the presidential sweepstakes, so it’s worth taking a quick look at how his entrance might affect the race. Ultimately, I don’t think he can win the nomination given that it’s unlikely he could overcome his huge negatives to be seen as electable nationally, and Fred Thompson’s entrance into the race has already filled much of the demand for another conservative alternative. But that doesn’t mean that his entrance will not impact the race.

In March, I wrote about how a Gingrich candidacy could prod the other Republican candidates into having a more serious dialogue about the nation’s challenges. Given his historic role in the modern conservative movement, all of the other candidates are likely to be somewhat deferential to Gingrich, hoping for an endorsement.

UNH/CNN/WMUR GOP New Hampshire Primary

• Mitt Romney 23% (33%)
• Rudy Giuliani 22% (18%)
• John McCain 17% (12%)
• Fred Thompson 12% (13%)
• Newt Gingrich 7% (3%)
• Ron Paul 4% (2%)
• Mike Huckabee 2% (2%)
• Sam Brownback 2% (0%)
• Undecided 9% (12%)

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• Rudy Giuliani 71% / 22% (+49%)
• Mitt Romney 65% / 24% (+41%)
• John McCain 63% / 24% (+39%)
• Fred Thompson 47% / 19% (+28%)
• Newt Gingrich 43% / 39% (+4%)

Without Newt Gingrich in the race…

• Mitt Romney 25% (34%)
• Rudy Giuliani 24% (20%)
• John McCain 18% (12%)
• Fred Thompson 13% (13%)

Republican with best chance of defeating Democratic nominee in 2008

• Rudy Giuliani 32% (30%)
• Mitt Romney 21 (29%)
• John McCain 13% (11%)
• Fred Thompson 10% (10%)

Second Choice

Among Romney voters

• Rudy Giuliani 50%
• John McCain 20%
• Fred Thompson 16%

Among Giuliani voters

• Mitt Romney 43%
• John McCain 16%
• Fred Thompson 15%

Among McCain voters

• Rudy Giuliani 30%
• Mitt Romney 21%
• Fred Thompson 5%

Among Thompson voters

• Mitt Romney 43%
• John McCain 21%
• Rudy Giuliani 10%

Survey of 324 likely Republican primary voters was conducted September 17-24. The margin of error is +/- 5.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 9-17 are in parentheses.

This just in… More to follow:

HANOVER, New Hampshire (CNN) – It’s a dead heat in New Hampshire, according to our new poll of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters.

Mitt Romney’s lead in the battle for the GOP presidential nomination in the all important Granite State has evaporated, according to the results of a CNN/WMUR poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.

The survey, released Wednesday, shows the former Massachusetts Governor drawing support from 25 percent of Republican primary voters to 24 percent for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

That statistically-insignificant, 1 point margin is a major change from CNN/WMUR’s last New Hampshire poll, taken in July, when Romney held a comfortable 14 point lead over Giuliani.

Iowa Team Brownback is pleased to announce that Dr. Alveda King, the niece of Martin Luther King Jr. and prominent civil rights, pro-life activist, will be coming to meet with our supporters on Friday at our Iowa HQ in Des Moines. She will also give a speech on why she’s endorsing Sam Brownback for president.

Dr. King joins other prominent pro-life activists in endorsing Senator Brownback, including Fr. Frank Pavone, Bobby Schindler, Norma McCorvey, and Dr. Jack Wilke (founder of National Right to Life). You can read her full bio here.

Her visit has also stirred quite a lot of controversy locally, as a local high school canceled her appearance once they found out that her speech would incorporate pro-life and abstinence values. Today’s Des Moines Register:

School’s ban on speaker is criticized

By MEGAN HAWKINS
Register Staff Writer

September 26, 2007

A Roosevelt High School official’s decision to cancel a speech by an anti-abortion activist met with criticism Tuesday from civil libertarians who said the move stymies healthy debate.

Kathie Danielson, principal of the school in Des Moines, said she canceled Friday’s appearance by Alveda King, a niece of Martin Luther King Jr., because a handful of parents complained about Alveda King’s message.

King, a supporter of conservative Republican presidential candidate Sam Brownback of Kansas, is also slated to speak at Dowling Catholic High School and at Drake and Iowa State universities this week. She will also visit various churches.

Danielson, who previewed King’s presentation, said that “quite a bit of it does talk about civil rights, but there is a connection to morals. … It was scheduled to take place during the school day, cutting into class time, and we just thought it was best to cancel it.”

But Ben Stone, executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union’s Iowa chapter, said Danielson “does the students of Roosevelt High School a disservice when she decides she must protect them from viewpoints that are controversial.”

“Alveda King was invited to speak, and telling her to stay away now is wrong, for it implies that the school is taking sides on the abortion issue, while at the same time depriving students of an opportunity to engage in this important moral topic,” Stone said.

Jerry Horn of Priests for Life, the organization King works with, said she “speaks to public schools all the time” for no fee.

King’s presentation focuses on her personal life and outlines “dream blockers,” which include teen pregnancy, abortion, sexually transmitted diseases and the sexual revolution.

Roosevelt senior Tyler Staples said many of his friends disagreed with the decision to invite King, who also promotes sexual abstinence and anti-abortion legislation.

“I think most teenagers at this point in their career have sort of made a decision regarding that issue, and the last thing a lot of us would like to confront … is that topic,” Staples said.

“Within our own groups of peers, it’s acceptable to talk about it there, but to be preached to about it, I don’t think high schoolers would give a very good response to it.”

Danielson, who took over at Roosevelt this fall, said that her predecessor had set up King’s visit and that it seemed like a good opportunity to have the niece of a civil rights icon speak to students about such issues as diversity. But parents complained about King’s political and social views, she said.

Jennifer Chaplin, an anti-abortion activist who helped organize King’s visit, said she is disappointed that Roosevelt dropped the event.

“I’m a pro-life person, so I believe we need to embrace those values … and I believe abstinence is absolutely the only sure way to prevent unwanted pregnancies and STDs,” she said.

“I think kids have gotten away from that message. Public schools are not encouraging abstinence education.”

Chaplin said King is director of African American Outreach for Gospel of Life, an author, a songwriter, a former college professor and a former representative in the Georgia Legislature.

“Why wouldn’t you want someone like her in there to speak to kids, whether she’s pro-life or not?” Chaplin said.

Sharon Fuller, president-elect of Roosevelt’s Parent-Teacher Association, said she had not heard of King’s event, but she acknowledged that Danielson had “a tough call whether to allow someone to come and say one opinion and not allow the other side to be heard, too, especially with such a diverse student population there. That could cause hard feelings.”

Dan Rajewski, vice president of the ISU Students for Life group, said the dream for equality and civil rights is tied to morals, abstinence and other issues that affect youth.

He said King speaks about “pursuing children’s dreams … and that there are going to be different things in our world that steer people away from their dreams.”

“A lot of what she was going to talk about is abstinence,” Rajewski said. “It was meant to give students a positive attitude and spirit about life.”

Reporter Megan Hawkins can be reached at (515) 284-8169 or mehawkins@dmreg.com

Isn’t it crazy when our schools will allow an Iranian dictator to speak but not Dr. King?

I’ve found a few minutes in between meetings this morning to jot a quick but important note about the 2008 General Election.

I believe one side of the general election matchup (GEM) equation has been solved for us — that of the Democrats. Clearly, for the top of the ticket, Hillary Clinton is running away with this thing in a landslide. She now has the lead in every single state as well as a massive national lead. The only way she loses now is by committing a major blunder or gaffe (and by major I mean of epic and titanic proportions), or if Edwards or Obama manage to eke out a surprise victory in Iowa and somehow translate that into a win in New Hampshire where Hillary is leading by over 20 points.

Suffice it to say that I do not see either of those two scenarios happening. So, the Democrats are taking the role of the GOP of primaries past and nominating their front-runner. Thus, the 2008 GEM looks like this:

Clinton/? vs. ?/?

I have, from the beginning of this race, predicted that if Hillary won the nomination, she would choose one of three people as her running mate: Bill Richardson, Mark Warner, or Evan Bayh. Now, with Richardson making gaffe after gaffe on the campaign trail and showing he’s not ready for primetime, and with Warner running for Senate in the ‘08 elections, she is most likely to choose Evan Bayh.

That choice just became a lot clearer this past week when Bayh officially endorsed Hillary for President. Hillary will choose Evan Bayh as her running mate – I’d put money on it. In fact, I think I will. This makes the GEM look like this:

Clinton/Bayh vs. ?/?

To be sure, Clinton/Bayh is a heckuva strong ticket and has the potential to wipe the floor with any of the GOP contenders. Bayh is from the red, red state of Indiana where he was a very popular Governor before becoming a very popular Senator. He is largely perceived as a moderate even though the ACU gives him a lifetime rating of 20 (still, it looks moderate compared to Clinton’s 9) and has the potential to put red states in play as well as make the midwest even harder for Republicans to win.

On the other side of the equation, we know McCain would most likely pick Pawlenty for his VP, Romney will almost certainly select DeMint, Giuliani’s best bet looks to be Huckabee, and Thompson’s choice is still up in the air. From this point on, we ought to be crafting a strategy with any of those combinations to defeat Clinton/Bayh in 2008.

Some interesting general election polling from my state from SurveyUSA (via RCP). Keep in mind that Wisconsin was one of the closest races in 2004. Kerry won the state by 1%, or 11,400 votes.

Clinton 48 - Giuliani 44
Clinton 47 – Thompson 45
Clinton 50 – Romney 41

Obama 46 – Giuliani 43
Obama 48 – Thompson 43
Obama 52 – Romney 37

Edwards 44 – Giuliani 45
Edwards 49 – Thompson 40
Edwards 52 – Romney 34

Our erstwhile candidates have spent the past three or four days attacking Columbia University for hosting Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The thought process seems to be that Ahmadinejad is bad, so we shouldn’t let him talk. Maybe this thought process is why we have so many foreign policy problems…call me crazy (I know many, many of you will).

In one of the rare occurances of President Bush and I seeing eye to eye, he injected the debate with a strong dose of sanity: “This is a place of higher learning, and if the president (of Columbia) thinks it’s a good idea to have the leader from Iran come and talk to the students as an educational experience, I guess it’s OK with me. The problem is that Ahmadinejad uses these platforms to advance his agenda, which I suspect in this case.”

Bravo, sir. Giuliani, Mitt, and Fred went haywire over the concept that people with differing points of view – a world leader that our foreign policy is focused on, no less – should be permitted to speak to the American people and attempt to persuade them. I guess President Bush is a bigger believer in markets than these fellows. After all, the bases of our free speech rights are essentially twofold:

First, “sunlight is the best antiseptic.” That is to say that knowledge kills ignorance.

The second basis is the concept of a “market of ideas.” Our founding fathers believed that the cure for bad speech was MORE speech, not less. The idea was that when bad ideas are forced to compete with good ideas in the “market of ideas,” good ideas will win out. Thus, speech we do not like should be met with our own, better, ideas in response. The idea that we should silence our critics or our foes is sad. Surely we do not fear that Ahmadinejad’s ideas will defeat ours in the marketplace of ideas. So, why then should we try to silence him? After all, anyone who read the transcript knows that the man did nothing more than make himself out to be a fool, especially with his hysterically funny contention that Iran does not have homosexuals and his equally amusing question “who has told you these things?”

Ahmadinejad is a joke. And a joke needs to be told so people know that its silly. Columbia did us all a favor by letting the dictator stand up and speak for himself so that we could all see what a deluded fraud he is. President Bush was right on this one. It’s too bad that our candidates spend so much time pandering to the thoughtless masses in our own party that they forgot the principles that they are supposed to stand for.

Instead of crying from the sidelines, maybe our candidates should have manned-up and offered to get on stage with Ahmadinejad to defeat his ideas with our own.

The University of New Hampshire released a poll of Democrat primary voters yesterday, and here are the results:

• Hillary Clinton 43%
• Barak Obama 20%
• John Edwards 12%
• Bill Richardson 6%
• Joe Biden 3%
• Dennis Kucinich 3%
• Chris Dodd 1%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 11%

Sorry Chris Dodd, but nobody likes you. Clinton is running away with it in New Hampshire. She leads by pretty much the same margin across all different demographic groups here. She even leads Obama among men, albeit by a lesser margin than among women. She is virtually a shoe-in in New Hampshire. I had expected Obama to do better with liberals and Hillary with moderate/conservative Democrats. That isn’t the case in this poll. Among liberals, she leads 43-23 over Obama. Among moderates/conservatives, she actually gets 1% less but leads Obama 42-18. Edwards and Richardson both do marginally better among moderate/conservative Democrats than among liberals. This is ironic since Edwards is positioning himself to Hillary’s left on economics, and Richardson is positioning himself to her left on the war. They will have a debate tonight at Dartmouth College.

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll , GOP Nomination

• Fred Thompson 26%
• Rudy Giuliani 21%
• Mitt Romney 14%
• John McCain 12%
• Mike Huckabee 5%

Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rudy leads Hillary in NJ in the general election match-ups:

Quinnipiac University New Jersey GOP Poll, conducted Sept. 18-23rd, 2007

• Rudy Giuliani 45 (-1)
• Fred Thompson 12 (+3)
• John McCain 8 (-3)
• Mitt Romney 6 (-1)
• Newt Gingrich 4 (-2)
• Undecided 14 (+2)

General Election Match-Ups

• Giuliani 45- Clinton 44
• Clinton 46 – McCain 41
• Clinton 48 – Thompson 36
• Clinton 52 – Romney 33

• Giuliani 49 – Obama 40
• Obama 44 – McCain 41
• Obama 49 – Thompson 34
• Obama 51 – Romney 31

• Giuliani 50 – Edwards 39%
• Edwards 44 – McCain 40
• Edwards 48 – Thompson 34
• Edwards 51 – Romney 30

Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings

• Giuliani 61/29 (+32)
• Obama 50/23 (+27)
• Edwards 47/27 (+20)
• McCain 47/28 (+19)
• Clinton 51/41 (+10)
• Gore 47/41 (+6)
• Thompson 26/20 (+6)
• Romney 22/27 (-5)

Hat-tip to R4′08 reader Adam.