GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
I don’t hold much value in straw poll results, but some on this site do. So, to show that one candidate doesn’t have a mandate on all straw polls, here are the results of the Ohio State Republican Party Straw Poll. They had a turnout of 2,300. From the Ohio GOP official site:
Here is some of their report on the event:
“Your participation in the straw poll not only provides an early indication of how Ohio will vote but also demostrates your support of building a strong grassroots organization through our state party,” DeWine told the nearly 2,300 Ohioans who cast a straw poll ballot.
Now, back to the race
September 28th, 2007 at 8:24 pm
Another win for Guiliani….. I heard that he has won 6 straw polls so far….that’s quite a few for a frontrunner, isn’t it?
September 28th, 2007 at 8:28 pm
Results from polling Ohio during Sept 13-16
Rudy Giuliani 34%
Fred Thompson 21%
John McCain 9%
Mitt Romney 8%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Mike Huckabee 4%
Ron Paul 3%
Tom Tancredo 2%
Sam Brownback 2%
Take it as you please, but Guiliani should have won, not Thompson
Duncan Hunter 1%
Undecided 11%
September 28th, 2007 at 8:45 pm
Romney won 10 straw polls in South Carolina alone. Thompson’s results in this one, however, are impressive. Ohio isn’t in the South. For whatever reason, the Fred mystique hasn’t worn off yet.
September 28th, 2007 at 8:49 pm
jrcutler, what are those numbers you listed from?
September 28th, 2007 at 9:16 pm
Romney - $15 M
Giuliani - $12 M
McCain - $8M
Go Romney!
September 28th, 2007 at 9:46 pm
I think that this poll, in the heart of the Midwest, may confirm that Fred Thompson’s “virtual front-porch” strategy is working. If Senator Thompson holds the South and the Midwest and Gov. Romney and Mayor Giuliani split the coasts its going to get very tight. If Speaker Gingrich enters the race all the dynamics could change though. Gingrich may suck a large portion of the value vote so it will be interesting to see who that effects the most.
September 28th, 2007 at 9:54 pm
cwpete, where did you get that?
September 28th, 2007 at 10:23 pm
Lets just call it cwpete’s best guess.
Romney - $15 M
Giuliani - $12 M
McCain - $8 M
If I had any sources, and I’m not admitting that I do, there I would never reveal them.
September 28th, 2007 at 10:25 pm
I predicted since April and I will state it again. It will be a 6 man race: Rudy, McCain, Mitt, Fred, Newt, and Huckabee. Newt, Fred, Huckabee, and McCain to some extent splits up the South. Rudy and McCain fight it out on the coasts. Mitt wins IA, NH, MI, NV, and WY. Mitt comes in 2nd/3rd in S.C and 2nd in Florida.
On February 5th, however Rudy captures the majority of the eastern large states. Mitt captures the majority of the western states and wins a plurarity in California. Fred captures the bulk of the Southern states and to some extent Newt does well there too. McCain gets very little traction. Huckabee does marginally better.
In the final analysis, Rudy and Mitt end up neck and neck with the largest share of delegates with Fred being a close third. Not one of them secure enough for the nomination and we end up with a bitterly contested convention because delegates for MI and FL will be counted at 1/2. The President and the Vice President nominees will come out of the whomever of the two out the three (Fred, Rudy, and Mitt) will agree to work together.
September 28th, 2007 at 10:32 pm
nowandlater:
That would certainly be a nail biter. I’m thinking if you are correct your statement that Romney wins IA, NH, MI, NV, and WY, then he may fair better than you portray on Feb 5th.
We shall see..
September 28th, 2007 at 11:36 pm
Strategic Vision polled that one, and if you don’t like that one, Quinnepac had him ahead 6 percent at the first part of Sept.
September 28th, 2007 at 11:44 pm
cwpete,
I think your projections are a little too high for McCain. I think it will take a miracle for him to exceed 5 million. Maybe you will prove me wrong..We will see.
September 29th, 2007 at 9:38 am
I think that Fred Thompson is going to prove a lot stronger throughout the midwest than anyone thinks. Actually, I think that Governor Romney will have difficulty in the midwest and the south, as will McCain and Giuliani. I still look for a two man race between Senator Thompson and Governor Huckabee. Either candidate would be terrific, and the loser would make a great VP. Newt is brilliant, but just has too much baggage.
September 29th, 2007 at 12:22 pm
I think the “regionalized” factor will not go away entirely, even with Mitt with a large string of wins. Those wins may give him a plurarity of the delegates or a close 2nd, but Rudy has strength in the North East, the liberal West Coast, and parts of the Midwest that will not go away. Likewise Fred has strength in the South which will not suddenly evaporate. Fred is hurt by McCain, Huckabee, and McCain running though and that will put him in third.
It is going to be bitter and bruising right up to the convention. However, this is a hughe advantage with the GOP. Why? The 527’s will have no one to target during the bulk of 2008. It will be hard to swift boat the Republican nominee if there is no idea who it is. On the other hand, Clinton will be the clear nominee and she will have to deal with 7 to 8 months of the 527’s swiftboating her. She will have no one to retailate against! It will devastate her.
A contested convention will be excruciating and difficult, the two months after the convention will allow the nominee to have a quick surge, and turnaround. It will be a breath of fresh air for voters and the 527’s groups will be frozen out of the process of attacking the nominee. In the final analysis, it will help the GOP enormously in the General Election, because it shield the nominee from a vast majority of attacks and Clinton will have to do the attacking on her own. Beautiful scenario! I hope it happens and I hope Newt runs!
September 29th, 2007 at 12:25 pm
Ginny Desiderio,
“I still look for a two man race between Senator Thompson and Governor Huckabee.”
It’s a nice thought, since Huckabee would destroy Thompson in a situation like that. The facts stand that Huckabee has virtually no name recognition and it would take a miracle to climb out of this hole in 3 months, even if he got 15 mil in Q3. Impossible for Huckabee to win the race, why do I say this? Because he polls awful in Iowa and NH and virtually everywhere else except for the place where people know him - Arkansas. If life were fair, Huckabee would be winning. Life is not fair. If that’s not enough, his spending record in Arkansas would slow down any momentum he could get from any large contribution. Sorry, my friend, Huckabee is out of the race. You can hope for VP though
I also don’t think that Thompson can win more followers than he already has - he can only maintain or go down, and that can only lead to a loss or a split convention win-yeah right on that one.
I am almost certain that we won’t have a southern representative as the presidential nominee, but I am 99 percent sure we will have one for the VP on the ticket.
September 29th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
Listen up folks!! there will not be a republican in the white house in 2008 unless his name is Ron Paul, the republican party as a whole better get behind this man or we will be looking at president Hillary. Dr. Paul already has a strong grassroots following, if the rest of us get behind him, the republicans can win. below I posted the current results from meetup.com, these are actual numbers of people that go out and promte the candidate of their choice.
Meetup.com members as of 9/23/2007
updated from 9/16/07
Republicans
……………………9/16/07 9/23/07 change
Paul………….. 45,145……..47,042…………+1897
Hunter…………….230………….239……………+9
Thompson……….179………….180…………..+1
McCain…………..107………….108…………..+1
Giuliani…………….56…………..59……………+3
Huckabee…………34…………..34……………+0
Romney…………..29……….. ..37…………….+8
Tancredo…………..4………. 36…………….+32
Brownback…………0…………..0………………+0
Democrats
Obama…………..5893………5900………….+7
Edwards…………4139………4153………….+14
Kucinich…………4097………4096………….-1
Clinton………. ….2042……..2053………….+11
Gravel……………..52…………56……………..+4
Richardson……….31…………41…………..+10
Biden………………0………….0………………+0
Dodd……………….0…………0……………….+0
September 29th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
Matthew Miller,
Thread jack! You post a pro-paul post on a post of Paul getting 1% in a straw poll, and you say he has grassroots support? You are seriously lacking the ability to see the truth of the matter-Ron Paul is finished. Good luck in the libertarian party, dude, because you’re not getting a peice of the republican party.
September 29th, 2007 at 1:57 pm
jrcutler
I have a friend who attended that straw poll and he said that Ron Paul was not even listed on the ballot as being one of the choices, it’s interesting that he was listed in the results, which just goes to show how some of the republican party leaders are trying to mask his support, and lead the republican party down the wrong road.
p.s.
Good luck with “president Hillary” “dude”
September 29th, 2007 at 2:07 pm
Ron Paul’s Straw Poll Results
Updated on September 24, 2007
Straw Poll Date Rank Votes
Mackinac Island - Michigan Republican Leadership Conference 9/23/2007 3 10.8%
Palmetto Family Council Straw Poll 9/20/2007 2 33.0%
Manchester, NH Straw Poll 9/16/2007 1 65.0%
South Dakota Straw Poll 9/3/2007 6 8.0 %
Maryland Straw Poll 9/3/2007 1 27.3%
Texas Straw Poll 9/1/2007 3 16.7 %
Allegheny County, Pennsylvania 8/26/2007 1 45.2 %
DeKalb County, Georgia Straw Poll 8/25/2007 1 24.0 %
HRCC (Minnesota) 8/22/2007 3 16.0%
Ronald Reagan Club (Washington) 8/21/2007 1 28.0%
West Alabama 8/18/2007 1 81.2%
Strafford County, NH 8/18/2007 1 72.2%
West Lafayette, Indiana 8/18/2007 4 11.7%
Illinois State Fair 8/17/2007 3 18.9%
Students for Life of America 8/16/2007 4 9.0%
Western Montana Fair 8/15/2007 6 4.0%
Gaston County, NC 8/14/2007 1 36.6%
Ames, Iowa 8/11/2007 5 9.1%
National Federation of Republican Assemblies (NFRA), St. Louis, MO 8/6/2007 3 14.0%
FreedomWorks Straw Poll 8/3/2007 1 56.0 %
Georgetown County, SC 7/28/2007 2 17.9%
New Hampshire Taxpayers 7/7/2007 1 65.3%
Cobb County, GA 7/4/2007 2 17.0%
California Republican Assembly 7/1/2007 4 12.0%
National Taxpayers Union 6/16/2007 2 16.7%
Utah GOP convention 6/8/2007 2 5.4%
Coming soon… Washington State GOP, Oklahoma State GOP, Ohio State GOP
View a Google Map of Ron Paul’s Results in Each Straw Poll
Ron Paul’s Head-to-Head Records (Win-Lose-Tie):
Rudy Giuliani 23-3-0
Mitt Romney 15-11-0
Fred Thompson 13-12-0
John McCain 22-3-0
Mike Huckabee 21-3-1
Sam Brownback 22-2-1
Tom Tancredo 23-1-0
Duncan Hunter 22-2-0
September 29th, 2007 at 5:28 pm
I was going to send you a big old message, but what does it matter.
Wait until January.
September 29th, 2007 at 7:46 pm
I bet you were,come and join us! we will accept you, we are the constitutional party,we look out for all americans!
September 30th, 2007 at 4:05 am
http://therealrudy.org/