Republican Nomination Preference by Ideological Self-Identification
Among Moderate/Liberal Republicans (N=544)
Among Conservative Republicans (N=1,131)
Republican Nomination Preference by Frequency of Church Attendance
Attend Church Weekly (N=689)
Attend Monthly (N=396)
Seldom/Never Attend (N=577)
Republican Nomination Preference by Religious Affiliation
Protestant/”Christian” (N=765)
Catholic (N=273)
Republican Nomination Preference by Region of the Country
Northeast (N=327)
Midwest (N=365)
South (N=616)
West (N=382)
Survey of 1,690 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted in August and September.
September 28th, 2007 at 6:40 pm
Good numbers for Rudy
It’s also clear that if McCain wasn’t in the race, Rudy would have close to Hillary like #s.
Apparently McCain’s 3rd quarter was ok so it looks like he’ll be sticking around at least through the first few primaries.
If he accepts matching funds, he pretty much concedes the general though so that could hurt him.
Without McCain, I think Rudy wins NH and MI. With him, it’ll be tougher. I still think the best scenario has McCain dropping out after a 3rd or 4th place finish in NH and setting Rudy up to win MI, and by extension FL.
Florida’s delegates going winner take all also helps Rudy.
Nonetheless, the race is still wide open. We haven’t even had a debate with all the candidates yet and no one’s really started running ads. The game is just starting.
September 28th, 2007 at 7:08 pm
jim: ‘It’s also clear that if McCain wasn’t in the race, Rudy would have close to Hillary like #s.’
Maybe so, but even then, his support wouldn’t nearly be as solid as Clinton’s.
‘If he accepts matching funds, he pretty much concedes the general though so that could hurt him.’
Exactly. How well did that work out for Bob Dole?
September 28th, 2007 at 7:11 pm
Apparently these people were not screened, so they’re not likely voters. Also, what was the breakdown betwee Republicans and independents? Suggesting that Rudy and Fred are tied in the South raises serious red flags about the poll. For Rasmussen to be anywhere close to reality, Fred must be crushing him in the South.
September 28th, 2007 at 7:14 pm
This was taken from August poll results as well, before Thompson announced.
September 28th, 2007 at 7:36 pm
I think these polls are practically useless.
They aid candidates in getting their name in the media. They also help with fund raising. These polls have no relation to how voters will vote.
This reminds me of the primaries from 1976 to 1980. We had Reagan as the candidate of conservatives who faced off against Ford in 1976. The primary was inconclusive and the nomination had to be decided on the convention floor.
In 1980 the conservative wing had gained supremacy over the moderates. Reagan carried the South and beat the moderate Bush.
Perhaps in 2008 the moderate wing will retake the Party or perhaps it is setting itself up for another Rudy run in 2012.
September 28th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
Rudy will be 68 in 2012 so I don’t know if he’d run again. Although, if the GOP goes with the “conservative” in Thompson or Romney and loses, he’d have a big “I told you so” argument and might get it.
As for part of it being in August, I don’t know if that’s meaningful as by August pretty much everyone knew that Thompson was running it was just a matter of maing an official announcement.
It has to be very troubling for Romney to have such low numbers. Someone who gets 6% in the South and 8% of protestants is simply not a viable GOP candidate. Nor a viable general election candidate either.
For Rudy to win he’s going to have to hope that his margins in the Northeast, and other big states, and his advantage among moderates/liberals is enough to overcome the conservative opposition.
Then Bush hits Iran’s nuke program late next winter/early spring and Rudy rides that and a groundswell of conservative turnout after the Supreme Court gives more rights to Al Qaeda terrorists at Gitmo, abolishes the major death penalty, sides with a child rapist, defends child pornographers and eviscerates the 2nd amendment ALL in the same term to victory in November
September 28th, 2007 at 9:28 pm
Rudy may or may not be a good leader right now, but I really fear for the future of the party if he becomes our nominee – weather he gets elected or not. With Reagan now dead, and Bush’s popularity low, the Republican party lacks a face and a leader. Whoever wins the nomination in 2008 automatically becomes the leader of the party – and could set the Direction of the party for the next three decades. Do we really want to, in 2012 and 2016, be talking about “Giuliani Republicanism”? Do we really want to abandon social conservatism and hand an entire group of issues over to American Liberals – permenently? I know losing in 2008 could set us back a few years, but I don’t see how, in later elections, the GOP can portray itself as the party of life and family after nominating a pro-abortion Republican just an election or two earlier.
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:21 pm
[...] Friday, Aron posted a review of the crosstabs from the latest Gallup survey. I thought further analysis from the other polls [...]
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:33 pm
[...] Friday, Aron posted a review of the crosstabs from the latest Gallup survey. I thought further analysis from the other polls [...]
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:49 pm
[...] Friday, Aron posted a review of the crosstabs from the latest Gallup survey. I thought further analysis of the other polls [...]