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UUHHHHH…. If these are true, then I’ll eat my shorts and endorse Mitt Romney as the second coming of Moses…
ARG Polling South Carolina GOP
(Last months in parenthesis)
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in South Carolina (524 Republicans and 76 independent voters).
Sample Dates: September 26-29, 2007
September 30th, 2007 at 3:49 pm
YEAH.
FREAKING.
RIGHT.
I’ll believe it when I see two more polls confirming Romney in the TWENTIES.
September 30th, 2007 at 3:52 pm
I think we can quit posting polls from ARG.
September 30th, 2007 at 3:54 pm
There’s like, ten thousand things that are ludicrous about this poll. Should I even bother to post the list? I might to if the Rombots jump all over this as ‘proof’ that he does well in South Carolina.
September 30th, 2007 at 3:56 pm
I don’t know what it is, but it is apparently impossible to get reliable polling out of SC.
We will just have to see what the next polls brings.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:02 pm
Just out of curiosity, is this the first poll from SC since the Dobson announcement that he could not support Thompson?
September 30th, 2007 at 4:08 pm
ACT,
If 11% even heard about that note from Dobson, I’ll eat my shorts and declare Romney the 2nd coming of Moses.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:11 pm
I was just wondering. 11% is a big drop – and this poll is probably off in one way or another, but Dobson, being an important Evangelical leader, and South Carolina, being a mostly Evangelical state, I could see Thompson suffering a 3-4% drop.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
as ACT suggests, lets see what the other SC polls show. At this point though, I really think there are only 2 polls that carry much weight and thats NH and IA. The other state polls will change wildly as the results come in from those states. Romney and Rudy will see their FL, SC, and all 2/5 poll numbers change as Jan rolls on.
The FDT gaffes, fundraising, bad press, and poor debate performance could make his candidacy like Wes Clark, and he might be at home in TN when SC votes. I would almost bet on it at this point. Fred sucks, he is toast.
Tommy Oliver, Ill save a seat for you on the Romney bandwagon.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:13 pm
husky,
Thompson has had a great fundraising quarter.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:14 pm
BTW, poor debate performances part was forward thinking, since he was too much of a weenie to debate the others yet.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:14 pm
If Fred is at 10% in SC he might as while pack his bags and go back to Tenn.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:14 pm
ACT Blog: ‘Just out of curiosity, is this the first poll from SC since the Dobson announcement that he could not support Thompson?’
Live with it, no one gives a damn about anything Charles Dobermanson has to bark. You should be happy, because Romney is the next candidate he’s going to shoot at.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:16 pm
I said this on a different thread:
Everyone should expect more agenda driven outlier polls as we near January. I’d bet my next paycheck on it.
TLG is correct in that all should wait till some other polls validate this change.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:19 pm
“You should be happy, because Romney is the next candidate he’s going to shoot at.”
Why would he have waited until now?
September 30th, 2007 at 4:19 pm
That “agenda” may be to pump Romney up so that he can fall harder.
Who knows? More SC polls please..
September 30th, 2007 at 4:19 pm
Sorry Tommy but his fundraising numbers are terrible. Look, consider that Rudy and Romney each collected $20 million (Rudy was just under) as they 1st announce they would run. Romney raised $6.5 million in a day in January when he made his 1st jump in the water. It’s always easier to pick the low hanging fruit from your donors and have knockout numbers your 1st go around. To have Mitt and Rudy beat Fred this quarter AFTER they have had many of their major donors already give the max at the beginning of the year. Very disappointing.
Consider to that Fred is polling much higher (10-15% in most cases) nationally than Mitt is, which should give him many more supporters and potential donors. Yet in spite of that, Fred will raise in 3 months (while making very few campaign stops), what Mitt Romney raised on January 6th, and you call that a success? How is that?
September 30th, 2007 at 4:20 pm
Romney will take a nose dive soon. He is just not as conservative as voters want – actually none of the “top four” are. That is probably why people are starting to support Huckabee and Paul.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:25 pm
“Romney will take a nose dive soon.”
People have been saying that since he got in, and the closest he came was when Thompson jumped in, and now, he is just about back where he was before Fred’s announcement.
–
“He is just not as conservative as voters want – actually none of the “top four†are.”
People want a perfect candidate, but they are going to have to realize that everyone has faults. Romney is one of the two most Conservative in the top tier, and is more qualified and experienced than Thompson.
–
“Romney will take a nose dive soon. He is just not as conservative as voters want – actually none of the “top four†are. That is probably why people are starting to support Huckabee and Paul.”
Please, Ron Paul? He might be good on taxes, but he is a liberal loon when it comes to Iraq – which is exactly why he will not win. As for Huckabee, he is doing ok, though I think it is too little too late. He is also going to have to answer to charges he is weak on immigration.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:26 pm
ACT Blog: ‘Why would he have waited until now?’
Why did he wait until 10 days ago to attack Fred Thompson? Remember, he had to take back his words when he said that he was not a Christian, somwhere in April or May.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:27 pm
Steve: ‘Romney will take a nose dive soon. He is just not as conservative as voters want – actually none of the “top four†are. That is probably why people are starting to support Huckabee and Paul.’
Are you kidding me?
September 30th, 2007 at 4:27 pm
husky,
You’re delusional. Thompson’s 3rd quarter numbers are only for the last three weeks since he has declared. Also, Thompson will likely end up ahead of one of the other two tonight. The testing the waters committee will not be included in his quarter totals. Sorry to you. I’d wait until after tonight before you try and write him off.
Sorry.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:28 pm
All this said, I agree with husky.
The fact is, polls can and do change drastically after the first couple of states. IA and NH will play a big role in the other early states – and I might add NV to that list as well. I think the state of the race on 1/4 and the state of the race on 1/10 will look very different – one way or another.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
Tommy touched on something that needs to be challenged. Will anyone else call Fred’s fundraising numbers a joke if he doesnt come in 1st and raise $15 million plus. When you consider what McCain, Romney, and Rudy each did in the 1st quarter as each of them got started, they fundraised and picked the low hanging fruit. And in those 1st few months, they raised 11, 17, and 21 million each. Even the Dems raised a ton (Edwards included) when they 1st jumped into the race. With McCain/Feingold/Thompson limits of $2300 per contributor, the money raised in the early months is always the easiest. Especially when all you do is a 5 minute radio gig, and a few blogs here and there as a not yet announced candidate and find yourself near the top of the polls. With his universal name and face ID throughout the country, as a just announced candidate, leading in many polls nationwide, and retail campaigning very little, I’d be surprised and disappointed if Fred didnt raise at least $12-16 million this quarter (and he wont).
September 30th, 2007 at 4:32 pm
husky,
No. That’s ridiculous. His 3rd quarter started September 6. If you want to start calling it McCain/Feingold/Thompson like the true bots, then you must remember that Romney backed campaign fundraising plan to the LEFT of McCain feingold. Don’t even start with the horsecrap-spin.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:32 pm
by the way Looks like the Crowds are picking up for McCain in NH, 250 people for a house party (usually 150-175 is very good numbers for “house parties”) and standing room only event at a VFW Hall.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:34 pm
“ACT Blog: ‘Why would he have waited until now?’
Why did he wait until 10 days ago to attack Fred Thompson? Remember, he had to take back his words when he said that he was not a Christian, somwhere in April or May.”
Because, he waited until Thompson got into the race. Romney, on the other hand, has been in the race since January, just like McCain and Giuliani. He already ruled out the other two, so why, if he was planning to go hard after Romney, why would he wait? He still may not endorse him, but I don’t think Dobson is pointing a gun at him, ready to fire.
Not every Christian is a hate-filled bigot like some would like to believe.
–
“husky,
You’re delusional. Thompson’s 3rd quarter numbers are only for the last three weeks since he has declared. Also, Thompson will likely end up ahead of one of the other two tonight. The testing the waters committee will not be included in his quarter totals. Sorry to you. I’d wait until after tonight before you try and write him off.”
We will see what happens. Thompson may well come in ahead of McCain, but I don’t see him pulling ahead of Romney or Rudy. Also if he comes in behind Romney, or even close, I think it could be a blow. He leads Romney by a 2-1 margin in polls, yet he can’t beat him by the same margin in Cash? Particularly when he has the access to the “low hanging fruit”?
I’m not writing Thompson off – but he has a long way to go.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:35 pm
“You’re delusional. Thompson’s 3rd quarter numbers are only for the last three weeks since he has declared. ”
Is that true? Are the numbers he is showing just for the last 3 weeks. Then did he raise $15 million plus before that? Did he ever have to declare it? I do remember that Mitt raised $6.5 million on January 6th, while he was testing the waters. He officially announced around Valentines Day. But on Jan 6th, he was still only allowed to get $2300/person, right? And Im quite certain that his 1Q numbers included his January (testing the waters) money. So Im pretty sure that ALL of Freds 3Q money is for July-September. Someone can correct me if Im wrong, but I dont think I am.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:38 pm
ACT Blog: ‘Because, he waited until Thompson got into the race. Romney, on the other hand, has been in the race since January, just like McCain and Giuliani. He already ruled out the other two, so why, if he was planning to go hard after Romney, why would he wait? He still may not endorse him, but I don’t think Dobson is pointing a gun at him, ready to fire.’
He doesn’t have much of an alternative candidate, don’t you think? Once the religious fundamentalists manage to boost Huckabee, I think that Dobson will support him.
‘Not every Christian is a hate-filled bigot like some would like to believe.’
Absolutely not. However, Dobson is. Now let’s stop discussing this irrelevant and bitter old man.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:42 pm
Word is Romney has donated another 6 million dollars to his campaign.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:42 pm
husky,
Nobody is going to raise 6 million in one day in September after the campaign has been going on for this long. You are wrong. Nobody expected him to be able to do that.
He actually has surpassed his fundraising goals, so I’m not sure the final totals including the testing the waters committee time.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:43 pm
“He doesn’t have much of an alternative candidate, don’t you think? Once the religious fundamentalists manage to boost Huckabee, I think that Dobson will support him.”
Huckabee is going to have problems on immigration – remember, he called some the control-the-borders crowd “Mean Spirited”. That is not going to play well.
–
“Absolutely not. However, Dobson is. Now let’s stop discussing this irrelevant and bitter old man.”
Evidence please?
September 30th, 2007 at 4:45 pm
“husky,
Nobody is going to raise 6 million in one day in September after the campaign has been going on for this long. You are wrong. Nobody expected him to be able to do that.
He actually has surpassed his fundraising goals, so I’m not sure the final totals including the testing the waters committee time.”
Now you are ducking the issue. Was the $6 mil figure included in Romney’s Q1 numbers or not? If yes, then why would Fred’s pre-campaign numbers not be included as well?
September 30th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
Dobson’s not going to back anybody this quarter. That’s almost confirmed.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:47 pm
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2007/09/018620.php
September 30th, 2007 at 4:49 pm
ACT,
I am reporting all that I know. Romney wasn’t testing the waters in January, he was in a full exploratory committe.
I am repeating what was reported on the news about 45 minutes ago.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:50 pm
BTW, Dobson will not back Romney
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2007/09/018620.php
September 30th, 2007 at 4:51 pm
Ok then – but Thompson has had an exploratory committee for a while now, hasn’t he?
I’m not trying to call you a liar, but there is something inconsistant about Romney’s six mil being included, but Thompon only reporting numbers from the last three weeks.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:52 pm
“Dobson’s not going to back anybody this quarter. That’s almost confirmed.”
Do you mean “this quarter” or “this cycle”? I’ll agree that he is not going to back anyone this quarter – since it only has a few hours left, but he might still endorse someone this cycle. Even if he does not, the fact that Romney is the only top tier candidate he has not ruled out says something.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:52 pm
No. Thompson has never had an exploratory committee. There is a difference in the laws between exploratory and a testing the waters committee.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:54 pm
alright then, I guess we are just going to have to see what happens.
September 30th, 2007 at 4:57 pm
ACT Blog: ‘Huckabee is going to have problems on immigration – remember, he called some the control-the-borders crowd “Mean Spiritedâ€. That is not going to play well.’
Well, Romney has also crossed the anti-immigration crowd. So I don’t think that if they rule out Huckabee for that reason, they’ll like Romney.
‘Evidence please?’
If you were more reasonable, I’d look up some evidence for you. Now, you’ll just have to take my word for it.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:07 pm
“Well, Romney has also crossed the anti-immigration crowd. So I don’t think that if they rule out Huckabee for that reason, they’ll like Romney.”
I’m not saying they will, just that I don’t think Huckabee is going to be a favorite of Evangelical Conservatives.
–
“If you were more reasonable, I’d look up some evidence for you. Now, you’ll just have to take my word for it.”
Sorry, not on this subject.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:10 pm
ACT Blog: ‘Sorry, not on this subject.’
Then take my word for the following: ‘definitely’ is the correct spelling, not ‘deffinately’.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:12 pm
yeah, whatever.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:20 pm
ACT,
Dobson is not going to back anybody this primary. Personally, I could see him back Huckabee possibly. However, according to Powerline today, he will not back anybody except possibly Huck.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:22 pm
Alright then. So Dobson will not back anyone – but it still speaks volumes that, of the four top tier candidate, Romney is the only one who he did not rule out.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:22 pm
powerlineblog.com/archives/2007/09/018620.php
September 30th, 2007 at 5:23 pm
ACT,
Dobson was the one pushing Romney’s Marriott scandal this summer.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:26 pm
I understand that, but he has specifically said that he could not support Giuliani, McCain, or Thompson. No such statement on Romeny.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:31 pm
Seriously. ARG polls can just be discounted. They are all over the place and they suck.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:33 pm
ACT,
He hasn’t made a public statement on Thompson, either. Nobody’s seen the whole leaked email in its full context, and nobody knows what else he’s sent out. I’m going by sources and what I’ve specifically heard myself.
Focus on the Family even sent out a letter trying to distance themselves from the email. Do I believe them? No, but he’s not really going to be relevent this primary.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:36 pm
No way in hell anyone but Fred Thompson is leading in SC.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:39 pm
I am hearing that Speaker Gingrich, who is very strong on values issues, was Dr. Dobson’s horse in this race. However, a Dobson endorsement of Gov. Romney could have the potential of bridging the perceived divide between Evangelicals and LDS. Dobson’s endorsement might set the stage for a “normalization” of relations between the two Christian denominations and lay the ground work for an accepting of Mormons back into the fold as it were.
In a related note, my sources are telling me that Senator Brownback is feeling quite dejected these days and somewhat jilted by his friends in the Evangelical leadership circles. Many of his supporters feel that he was the natural values candidate, has been a strong voice for their cause for years but may have suffered somewhat of a backlash due to his conversion to Catholocism.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:42 pm
Thank you Kavon, for bringing some objectivity.
Romney supporters,
Don’t you guys remember in early summer when Mitt was winning all the polls in New Hampshire, while ARG still had McCain out ahead? Come to think of it… they still had McCain ahead of Thompson and Giuliani well after his fall in South Carolina as well.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:42 pm
Don’t underestimate the influence of James Dobson in the evangelical community.
Dobson has been giving advice to Christians through the Focus on the Family film series
since the 1970s. He was helping Christians learn how to raise families when no one was
talking about it(in the churches). Trust me, I have first-hand experience with my folks.
Call Dobson whatever names you like, but he does has a lot of clout, and if he says “No” to
Thompson, that will weigh heavily on the minds and hearts of regular church-going people in
the Bible Belt.
Besides, James Dobson didn’t just mention that Fred T. was not the social conservative everyone
was hoping for, he also talked about his quality as a potential president.
That alone would cause anyone concern.
In my opinion he appears to be extremely unmotivated, lackluster, bumbling, clueless and aimless.
And he doesn’t listen to the advice of his campaign advisors:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/30/us/politics/30thompson.html?pagewanted=2&_r=3&ei=5&en=fccb71932eba3cd3&ex=1348804800
From the above article: “Though polls show him emerging as a leading contender in an unsettled
field, one recently departed campaign official said: “You’d give him fund-raising call sheets
and they’d go into a watery grave in his in box. I’m not sure if he has a full appreciation
of what it takes to get there.”
This is a pretty amazing poll – and hard to believe (although I like it as a Romney supporter), but
maybe, just maybe, folks are starting to see Thompson for what he is: the unserious candidate.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:44 pm
“he does have a lot of clout” sorry.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:47 pm
Beth,
That fundraising quote is about to be disproved.
from foxnews.com
11.5 million since june
According to Thompson aides, the campaign raised $200,000 a day since “announcing” his candidacy after Labor Day. Thompson had more than 70,000 donors, which far outpaces most candidates in both fields in their first quarters as candidates.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:48 pm
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,298669,00.html
September 30th, 2007 at 5:49 pm
I think Romney’s bump is overstated in this poll, as is Fred’s drop, but at least with this poll, we have reason to believe the direction of the movement. Romney has actually started campaigning in South Carolina-didn’t Ann recently do a tour there? Also, Fred is now facing criticism, especially from the Religious right. McCain has been rebounding from his amnesty disaster.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:52 pm
This is all for the best. With Romney carrying South Carolina we’ll have a nominee by late January and we can start looking towards the November showdown with the beast.
September 30th, 2007 at 5:59 pm
ARG overpolls independents. I think Mitt’s recent flurry of TV advertisement is helping him with the independents there. His support among Republicans is probably not as high. Also, my guess is Fred is hurting with idependents based on this poll.
September 30th, 2007 at 6:02 pm
BTW,
If you go to ARG’s site, they also have Rudy tying Romney in IA and they repreat the tightening in NH with Romney down to 24 and Rudy and McCain both at 20.
I notice none of the Rombots crowing over this mention those two states
September 30th, 2007 at 6:05 pm
“ARG overpolls independents…my guess is Fred is hurting with i[n]dependents based on this poll.” — nowandlater
” * Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in South Carolina (524 Republicans and 76 independent voters).”
Now, the poll is crap, but they only surveyed 76 independent voters.
September 30th, 2007 at 6:05 pm
South Carolina
Likely Republican Primary Voters Republicans (87%) Independents (13%)
Brownback 1% –
Gingrich 8% 3%
Giuliani 24% 18%
Huckabee 1% –
Hunter 1% –
Keyes – -
McCain 14% 21%
Paul 1% 7%
Romney 27% 21%
Tancredo 1% –
F Thompson 9% 15%
Undecided 13% 15%
Romney leads among Republicans with this poll
September 30th, 2007 at 6:06 pm
Oh, and Fred does better with independents.
September 30th, 2007 at 6:06 pm
lol Keyes @ 0%.
September 30th, 2007 at 6:08 pm
Bethtopaz: ‘Don?t underestimate the influence of James Dobson in the evangelical community.’
I don’t Evangelicals generally have to be told what to do. Fortunately, they’re a small minority in this country.
‘Dobson has been giving advice to Christians through the Focus on the Family film series
since the 1970s. ‘
Would the couple who had O.J. as the ‘best man’ at their wedding be one of them? You’re in deep, deep trouble if you’re taking advice from a lowly person like Dobson.
‘Call Dobson whatever names you like,’
Oh, I’m not calling him any names, I’m telling the truth about him. You might want to take your displeasure up with ‘the truth’, since that’s where your problem is.
‘Besides, James Dobson didn?t just mention that Fred T. was not the social conservative everyone
was hoping for, he also talked about his quality as a potential president.
That alone would cause anyone concern’
Why? Because Dobson is such an impeccable judge of quality?
‘This is a pretty amazing poll ‘
No, it’s just ARG. Next week, they’ll show Paul leading with 2319%.
September 30th, 2007 at 6:11 pm
If this poll is accurate, which remains to be seen, could you imagine a Romney sweep of the early states? That would be awesome!
September 30th, 2007 at 6:12 pm
Paul does lead with 2319%, Awakened. On the Intarwebz (the polls that matter).
September 30th, 2007 at 6:12 pm
“If this poll is accurate, which remains to be seen, could you imagine a Romney sweep of the early states?”
No.
September 30th, 2007 at 6:13 pm
nowandlater, South Carolina has an open primary. So the polls including independents are the most accurate. But don’t worry. Now Rudy and Fred don’t need to be traveling around and can just move to Florida.
September 30th, 2007 at 6:15 pm
That’s what I would do, if I was running Rudy’s or Fred’s campaign. Just camp out in Florida.
September 30th, 2007 at 6:17 pm
ARG polls are junk. I’m researching this right now. They have a history highly suspect. And us here on this site aren’t the only ones to notice. They had Kerry ahead in 20+ states in 04
September 30th, 2007 at 6:18 pm
ARG was the only poll that had LaMont within 2 points of Lieberman in 2006.
September 30th, 2007 at 6:19 pm
yes, Fred can take the kids to disneyland, etc. Rudy wont be late for his events cause he’ll just campaign in one place. It’s all for the best.
September 30th, 2007 at 6:19 pm
71 — Oh wow.
bjalder — Yeah, it’s not like Rudy has any chance in New Hampshire or Michigan or Fred has any chance in South Carolina. ROMNEYBOT ALERT! WEE-OO! WEE-OO! ROMNEYBOT ALERT!
September 30th, 2007 at 6:20 pm
ARG polls have been some of the lowest for Romney. NOW there junk? Maybe it’s an outlier, but claiming it’s junk, right after it gives Fred a bad poll?
September 30th, 2007 at 6:22 pm
Uh, that’s why I said “could you imagine”, duh! The race isn’t over by any means, but could you imagine if Romney swept. It WOULD BE LEGENDARY!
September 30th, 2007 at 6:29 pm
Legendary?
Legendary?
Why?
September 30th, 2007 at 6:34 pm
bjalder26, pay no attention to the mitt haters. They are in deep denial. The poll can be off by a few points but they probably don’t know that Romney has been campaigning in SC with Jim Demint and has been on air for a few weeks now. The wheels are in motion. Rudy and Fred can go play Badminton in Florida to celebrate their front runner status. Rasmussen won’t let them down. There is always a place for hope.
September 30th, 2007 at 6:34 pm
Did ROmney start advertising there?
September 30th, 2007 at 6:41 pm
Like I said, we are going to have to wait for more polls to come out, but while the numbers are suspect, the directional movement is not. Romney has jsut started serious advertising in SC, and this poll shows improvement – it makes sense. Fred Thompson is finally in, and is starting to face criticism, and this poll shows decline – it makes sense.
September 30th, 2007 at 6:42 pm
The trend is upward for Mitt. That’s all we want.
The trend is downward for Fred. That was inevitable.
http://nyformitt.blogspot.com/
September 30th, 2007 at 6:58 pm
Romney starts his ads and jumps 17%. Could it be the socons just needed a look at the guy? Go Mitt.
September 30th, 2007 at 6:59 pm
ARG is “quirky” once again.
Romney did some hard and heavy radio ads in SC starting on Sept 24th highlighting what he did to Khatami (and by extension how he would have responded to Akdimenijab–Ground Zero–UN–Columbia debacle) http://www.mittromney.com/News/Press-Releases/Khatami . . .
I think he’s been hitting the TV airwaves there recently too (though still not as much as IA and NH)
Still, I highly doubt that’s enough to give him this much of a swing. DeMint onboard helps and the Mitt Mobile (Romney’s sons) has been working SC too. Still, I don’t expect Mitt to lead in SC and I doubt he’ll win it. If he does, it’s “Game Over” for everyone else.
Romney does have the best “first impression” of all the cadidates and I’ve found a lot of people whose only exposure to him has been the overtly negative and unfair MSM/DNC reporting and have been big-tim impressed when they first heard/saw him despite going in with a negative impression of him (that’s why his Fav/Unfav ratios are sooooooo much better in IA and NH . . . where he’s been and what he’s said on the air)
September 30th, 2007 at 7:00 pm
Thats it. I have decided to write off every poll from this point on!
September 30th, 2007 at 7:04 pm
And what’s with these “Fred should pack his bags and GO BACK TO TENNESSEE” comments (8,11)?
The man hasn’t lived in Tennessee for decades. He’s the ultimate DC insider and lives in Arlington VA (even after leaving the Senate). I heard he bought a house in TN in the lead up to the campaign . . . but that might be a rumor.
Does he have a house or condo in LA too? I think so, but not sure.
September 30th, 2007 at 7:09 pm
Huckabee has won two conservative debate straw polls (VV in Florida and the one in South Carolina). He was at a conference with Newt this weekend. It would not surprise me if Dobson & friends backed Huckabee. That alone would push him to “top tier”. He has already passed McCain in a couple polls. Although if those polls are anything like this ARG poll, who knows???
September 30th, 2007 at 7:17 pm
Tommy-
“UUHHHHH…. If these are true, then I’ll eat my shorts and endorse Mitt Romney as the second coming of Moses… ”
If these numbers are turn out to be reasonably accurate I’ll hold you to your word! Not that I believe this poll….Although 77, 79, and 82 do make some good points that would explain the direction of the poll.
September 30th, 2007 at 7:26 pm
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/nhrep8-710.html
NH New Poll, Interesting McCain coming back strong with Republicans (likely Iraq).
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iarep8-710.html
And here is a tigthen poll from NH.
September 30th, 2007 at 7:29 pm
OH SNAP.
HEY ROMBOTS!! If anyone wants to take this outlier poll seriously then lets take a look at the OTHER ARG poll of Iowa!
Apparantly… Mitt only leads by ONE POINT NOW!
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iarep8-710.html
September 30th, 2007 at 7:31 pm
Haha ARG IOWA poll
Romney 22
Giuliani 21
Thompson 16
McCain 11
Hahaha. ARG makes Zogby look good!
September 30th, 2007 at 7:31 pm
Adam -
which is exactly why ARG polls are always suspect.
September 30th, 2007 at 7:32 pm
I’m going out on the limb and saying McCain is going to come back to win NH. What affect that will have who knows because he still my not have the money to build off it, likely stop Romney?
September 30th, 2007 at 7:34 pm
Yeah. Sorry – I just got a little excited. I really think it’s time we quit posting ARG polls. I mean anyone who believes that Romney is at 26 in SC and at the same time at 22 in IA is smoking something that is probably more widely circulated among the Kos kids
September 30th, 2007 at 7:38 pm
Thing is I believe the NH poll is likely right. So who knows.
September 30th, 2007 at 7:38 pm
“I’m going out on the limb and saying McCain is going to come back to win NH. What affect that will have who knows because he still my not have the money to build off it, likely stop Romney?”
I doubt McCain will win NH. For one, Rudy and McCain are going to have to do the same thing in NH that Romney and Thompson are doing nationally – fighting to be the choosen “alternative” candidate. For two, Romney has an organization in Iowa better than or equal to McCain’s, and he has much more money. Rudy might be able to compete with Romney in a spending war – but McCain has no hope. For three, McCain is no longer the maverick-type that he was in 2000 – unafraid to upset the base, etc.
If anyone can take NH from Romney, its Giuliani, and I think even there, the chances are low.
September 30th, 2007 at 7:40 pm
“Thing is I believe the NH poll is likely right. So who knows.”
The CNN one? From what I have read, it contained an oversample of independents.
September 30th, 2007 at 7:41 pm
Paul,
Maybe it is. But we just can’t trust the polling outfit anymore. Mitt is not at 39 in MI and he’s not at 26 in SC and he’s not tied with Rudy in IA.
September 30th, 2007 at 7:42 pm
Adam: “…is smoking something that is probably more widely circulated among the Kos kids.”
LOL or the Ron Paul Revolutionaries.
September 30th, 2007 at 7:42 pm
ACT,
I thought he meant the last ARG in NH. The one that Giuliani leading… I could be wrong though
September 30th, 2007 at 7:45 pm
#77 ARG (amenon) – that badminton comment was funny.
Hey, check this out, from J.Martin’s column in Politico this afternoon:
“A powerful group of conservative Christian leaders decided Saturday at a private meeting in Salt Lake City to consider supporting a third-party candidate for president if a pro-choice nominee like Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination. The meeting of about 50 leaders, including Focus on the Family’s James Dobson, the Family Research Council’s Tony Perkins and former presidential candidate Gary Bauer, who called in by phone, took place at the Grand America Hotel during a gathering of the Council for National Policy, a powerful shadow group of mostly religious conservatives. James Clymer, the chairman of the U.S. Constitution Party, was also present at the meeting, according to a person familiar with the proceedings. “The conclusion was that if there is a pro-abortion nominee they will consider working with a third party,” said the person, who spoke to Salon on the condition of anonymity. The private meeting was not a part of the official CNP schedule, which is itself a closely held secret. “Dobson came in just for this meeting,” the person said. The decision confirms the fears of many Republican Party officials, who have worried that a Giuliani nomination would irrevocably split the GOP in advance of the 2008 general election, given Giuliani’s relatively liberal stands on gay unions and abortion, as well as his rocky marital history.”
Has anyone heard anything about this? This would be a big mistake, in my opinion, and would
guarantee that Hillary gets elected in 2008.
September 30th, 2007 at 7:48 pm
ARG in Iowa has never been a great poll for Romney. He and Huckabee got a nice post-Ames boost and McCain and Rudy got a solid dip in the Aug numbers . . . but that effect has worn off and things are back to how they were early in the summer.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iarep8-710.html
I think McCain’s and Thompson’s numbers are artificially inflated in this poll because they are doing better among the independants WHO CANNOT PARTICIPATE IN THE CAUCUSES. Rudy and Romney are actually tied at 22% among GOP voters. Should be interesting . . . but when it comes to driving turnout and getting people to actually caucus, I have to give the upper hand to Romney.
September 30th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
“Has anyone heard anything about this? This would be a big mistake, in my opinion, and would
guarantee that Hillary gets elected in 2008.”
Exactly right!
I hope these “Christian Conservative Leaders” do meet. I hope they DO try to take down Rudy. And I hope Rudy wins anyway and they fail so spectacularly and visibly that everyone can plainly see their clout is gone…and next time no one pays them any attention.
September 30th, 2007 at 7:51 pm
I would vote for any GOP candidate vs. Hillary. However, Hillary vs Giuliani is a toss up for me.
September 30th, 2007 at 7:51 pm
I thought In Iowa people do not register by party, they just show up to the caucus and declare what they all?
September 30th, 2007 at 7:54 pm
Oh wow! What happened to Huckabee in the Iowa ARG???? From 14% to 4%?
Also, what’s up with the pre-emptive complaints against Rombots. We haven’t tooted anything and suddenly we are criticized for playing up polls? We can’t win either way. You guys are being a bit too sensitive about bad news.
September 30th, 2007 at 7:56 pm
bethtopaz:
I’m not saying this is good news for Rudy, but a candidate focused solely on abortion is going to have a very narrow appeal, particularly when there are differences between Rudy’s platform on the issue and Hillary’s. A 2% total is doable, but he won’t get anywhere near the 6.6% John Anderson got in 1980 — and how much did Anderson’s presence wind up hurting Reagan anyway?
September 30th, 2007 at 8:21 pm
Tommy, regarding #51 – please see my #13 post.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
Added to this poll. In South Carolina, Huckabee dropped from 9% in August to 1% in September.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
gotcha, cwpete
September 30th, 2007 at 8:34 pm
Bethtopaz: ‘Has anyone heard anything about this? This would be a big mistake, in my opinion, and would
guarantee that Hillary gets elected in 2008.’
I see that the leaders of the religious right are determined to take Giuliani down, even if that means a GOP loss in the general election. They are desperately trying to stay relevant, and the sight isn’t pretty. Ultimately, these clowns will get what they deserve. For thirty years, they’ve been working in the American political arena, and the work is about to be unmade by their very own hands. The expiration date of the farce we’ve been witnessing since 1980 is nearing. The important question is: do they want 3 more Supreme Court appointments by Clinton? If they do, that’s OK. I will greatly enjoy their agonizing cries once it actually happens. They are but one Supreme Court justice away from reversing Roe v. Wade, and a slew of other decisions they don’t like. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory; isn’t that a sight? They will cut themselves with even greater frequency for not having supported Giuliani.
No matter what the result, I’ll be laughing on election night.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:37 pm
Adam: ‘I hope these “Christian Conservative Leaders†do meet. I hope they DO try to take down Rudy. And I hope Rudy wins anyway and they fail so spectacularly and visibly that everyone can plainly see their clout is gone…and next time no one pays them any attention.’
LOL! That would be great. Nonetheless, if they do manage to take Giuliani down, they will take themselves down with him. And I do believe that the punishment for them will be appropriate. Clinton will know how to deal with them:
- Fairness Doctrine (shuts down Christian radio stations)
- Freedom of Choice Act (codifies Roe)
- IRS enforcement of political activiy by churches
- 3 Supreme Court appointments
September 30th, 2007 at 9:55 pm
Awakened,
You sound absolutely giddy at the prospect of our country becoming either a liberal cesspool or an immoral, unreligious socialist state. . I hope you are not representative of most Rudy supporters.
September 30th, 2007 at 10:00 pm
I would hope that the Christian Conservative Right is not so blindsighted to see that supporting
a third party would only put Hillary & Bill, the diabolical due, into the White House once again.
Let’s hope they are not that short-sighted. And I say this as a socially conservative Republican, but
a realistic one, too.
September 30th, 2007 at 10:07 pm
As a Romney fan (and I have no idea why all conservatives are not), I have been expecting movement in this direction in SC. Thompson obviously has let everyone down with his lazy, no nothing campaign. He stayed high by avoiding the debates, but now that he is in he is facing the public, and they don’t like what they see. Dobson’s remark probably had some impact, but for the most part people can see for themselves he is not what they’ve been waitng for….so where do his votes go, obviously Romney ….especially since Newt is out now. Romney is a fabulous candidate in my humble opinion….and I’ve been expecting all along for him to win SC…whether or not he actually leads there now, I’m not sure, but I believe he will soon enough.. As far as the group forming a third party, it is a mute point…Rudy is not going to be the nominee…Very few of the people who are voting for conservative candidates now will vote for Rudy in the primary, so once the Romney/Thompson battle is over (and it nearly is) Romney will win SC, the party nomination, and the Presidency.
September 30th, 2007 at 10:10 pm
Jeff Fuller…
Welcome to Race42008. The Rudy supporters are split on this site.
There’s the militant atheist libertarian-leaners that support him — Myself, Awakened, MetroRepublican — and despise Romney.
Then there’s the mainstream Republicans like Aron Goldman or Kavon(the blog owner) that support him in a more conventional manner.
Adam is somewhere in the middle.
But no, people like Awakened and myself aren’t representative of most Rudy supporters.
September 30th, 2007 at 10:10 pm
Jeff Fuller…Welcome to Race42008. The Rudy supporters are split on this site.
There’s the militant atheist libertarian-leaners that support him — Myself, Awakened, MetroRepublican — and despise Romney. Then there’s the mainstream Republicans like Aron Goldman or Kavon(the blog owner) that support him in a more conventional manner.
Adam is somewhere in the middle.
But no, people like Awakened and myself aren’t representative of most Rudy supporters.
September 30th, 2007 at 10:30 pm
‘You sound absolutely giddy at the prospect of our country becoming either a liberal cesspool or an immoral, unreligious socialist state.’
You’re making no sense whatsoever, though I suspect that you can’t help it. Giuliani is the most fiscally conservative candidate of them all, how would he turn this country either into a ‘liberal cesspool’ or a ’socialist state’? Either way, Clinton is very likely to win, and I’m not going to upset myself over such a victory. Her victory might set the stage for a conservative comeback in 2010-2, when we kick lunatics like yourself out of the party and continue with sensible politics.
Keep your so-called ‘morality’ in your own bathroom stall, kind sir. I have no use for it, and I don’t really wish to be bothered by clowns who fashion themselves to be the enforcers of divine law. Ruin your own life, that’s fine (in fact, I encourage such natural selection), but you will keep your hands off other people’s lives.
‘I hope you are not representative of most Rudy supporters.
And I hope that you’re not representative of people in your family, otherwise, we would know why you’re all named ‘Fuller’.
September 30th, 2007 at 10:32 pm
Bethtopaz: ‘I would hope that the Christian Conservative Right is not so blindsighted to see that supporting
a third party would only put Hillary & Bill, the diabolical due, into the White House once again.’
I’m neutral on the matter. If they don’t support Giuliani, both cases will lead to their destruction. Either Clinton will win, and she’ll put an end to their influence, or Giuliani will win and he’ll be free from any obligation to these clowns.
‘Let’s hope they are not that short-sighted.’
I am. And I’m also hoping that the moon will crash into the sun.
September 30th, 2007 at 10:34 pm
ThatLibertarianGuy: ‘There’s the militant atheist libertarian-leaners that support him — Myself, Awakened, MetroRepublican — and despise Romney. ‘
I wouldn’t say that I despise Romney. Actually, I kind of like the guy, although his fip-flops are upsetting. He would be the best president management-wise. It’s his supporters who worry me, the biggest nutjobs seem to be supporting either Ron Paul or Mitt Romney.
September 30th, 2007 at 11:05 pm
Awakened,
You are way “over the top” with your personally-directed slander and accusations. I realize that you are attacking something very specific . . . but I’m sorry to inform you that I’m not your intended target. May I suggest a good therapist?
I was just calling you out for seeming happy to have the 4 things listed accomplished by HC. That would move us more towards being like Europe which is more liberal and socialist than we currently are . . . but that is where she wants us to go.
Comparing Romney supporters to Ron Paul supporters is definitely out-of-bounds. Personal-foul–15 yards. I was at the Ames Straw Poll and I can tell you a thing or two about nut-jobs . . . and they weren’t in the Romney tent.
PS. The passion in your writing has a very palpable religious zeal to it (”I will greatly enjoy their agonizing cries”, “They will get what they deserve”, “the punishment for them will be appropriate”, “lead to their destruction” etc . . .) Now isn’t that just a bit ironic? Maybe you could be a pastor of the Church of Non-belief?
September 30th, 2007 at 11:29 pm
Jeff Fuller: ‘You are way “over the top†with your personally-directed slander and accusations. ‘
Boo hoo, aren’t you a little crybaby? It’s okay, but make sure not to upset the guy in the next bathroom stall.
‘I realize that you are attacking something very specific . . . but I’m sorry to inform you that I’m not your intended target. May I suggest a good therapist?’
If you had a good therapist, you wouldn’t be as troubled as you are today. I’ll have to pass.
‘I was just calling you out for seeming happy to have the 4 things listed accomplished by HC. That would move us more towards being like Europe which is more liberal and socialist than we currently are’
There’s nothing really socialist about those four points, unless you’re clueless about what socialism actually is – not unlikely.
And if you were literate, you would have seen that I didn’t say that I favored those 4 points, I would merely be pleased at the ruin that they would bring upon the religious right. Some of those points I favor, others I’m ambivalent about, and still other I oppose.
‘Comparing Romney supporters to Ron Paul supporters is definitely out-of-bounds.’
I didn’t compare Romney-supporters to Paul-supporters. Pay attention. I would say that more than 50% of Romney-supporters are sane, maybe more than 75%. However, a significant minority seems to be positively insane. Of course, there’s no comparison with Ron Paul, a majority of whose supporters are insane – but the other candidates don’t seem to have this problem with lunatic supporters.
‘The passion in your writing has a very palpable religious zeal to it ‘
It might be zealous, but how exactly is reveling in other people’s (well-deserved) misery religious? But it’s interesting that religious folks manage to brand atheism and evolution as ‘religions’, while still saying that people who believe that are inferior because they are non-religious. They think that religious is a postitive, but use it as a put-down when it suits them. Interesting, isn’t it?
‘Now isn’t that just a bit ironic? ‘
I don’t think you would know irony if it hit you in the head – that’s the area of your body most free of neurons.
October 1st, 2007 at 12:14 am
Awa,
You will not get far in life by being a mouthy smart ass to anybody you disagree with. Perhaps you should use the gray matter you’ve got to intelligently argue with other people.
October 1st, 2007 at 3:38 am
If ARG polls aren’t reliable, why are they posted? Why so much effort to explain them away? And which polls are reliable? I about died when the “general election” poll from Wisconsin was posted, and the poll from Washington state… as if you couldn’t immediately see the fallacy and bleak attempt at meaning some folks derived from those polls.
October 1st, 2007 at 4:36 am
What happened to you anti-Mitt guys? Are you feeling sorry upon knowing that Mitt’s momentum in SC has finally arrived? And the sad fact, you are pretty much concerned that his leap has more than doubled. And your guy has stumbled.
Wow, I can see now a clear vision for America by a man named Mitt. He’s leading in IA, NH, MI and now he’s beginning to harvest his fruits in SC.
Well, for me, as Romney fan, I would like to laugh out loud. Hahaha.
“Where’s the nose dived?”
Hahaha!
October 1st, 2007 at 6:43 am
Richardlands,
You ought to save your laughter. Your guy is at 9 percent nationally and sinking in NH. The rest of us have learned not to put any stock into ARG polls, in SC or elsewhere.
October 1st, 2007 at 6:47 am
Shawnie,
Because posting polls bring traffic to the site, and if I didn’t post it, one of our resident mitt supporters would.
October 1st, 2007 at 7:42 am
Like I said earlier, I’m not sure this poll accurately reflects the current situation in SC, but it’s what I’ve been expecting, because FT obviously is not the man his supporters thought he would be, and Guiliani sure as heck doesn’t represent SC voters. Without Newt in the background, Mitt should get most of the FT and hold-out-for-Newt votes. If people can get over (and they will) the fact that Mitt is LDS, they will soon recognize him as a fantastic candidate. By the way if you look at the Laura Ingraham interview with Dobson in May, he said that he had met with Mitt for an hour and a half one-on-one, and that he liked him. He also said at that time that he was not going to endorse anyone yet, but with all other front runners ruled out by him, I think it is obvious who he is leaning toward.
October 1st, 2007 at 7:59 am
Awakened, you seem to be getting more strident in your comments, lately. Not sure why, but a tone of lashing out has taken over. Sadly, because you haven’t always been this way, you are taking yourself to a place where you can join sampo in the cheap seats with your pro-active anti-everything except my candidate scree.
So sad.
October 1st, 2007 at 9:19 am
ARG polls are crap and everyone knows it – let’s move on (on pun intended!!!)
October 1st, 2007 at 10:01 am
Adam,
Are you now worried my friend? What’s that 9% figure you emphasized, a poll given by 475 people, nationally? Uh,… what a sham!
Are you worried that Mitt won 36% in Michigan GOP poll? That he’s leading IA, NH and this time, SC. The 3 early states for the nomination. Are you worried that he’s message is now connecting to the people, effectively?
Come’on my friend, this may trouble you and perhaps, may make you sleepless, wondering how in the world Mitt can make such a success in his campaign. And his figures continue to surge.
Again, “where’s the nose dive?” Hahaha.
October 1st, 2007 at 12:13 pm
Mcon: ‘You will not get far in life’
Not wanting to offend, but having seen some of the things you’ve said, I don’t think I’ll be taking your advice on how to get far in life.
‘by being a mouthy smart ass to anybody you disagree with.’
No, not ‘anybody I disagree with’. ‘Stupid people I disagree with’.
‘Perhaps you should use the gray matter you’ve got to intelligently argue with other people.’
Sorry, I was born without a cerebral cortex.
October 1st, 2007 at 12:16 pm
Irish Right: ‘Awakened, you seem to be getting more strident in your comments, lately. Not sure why, but a tone of lashing out has taken over. Sadly, because you haven’t always been this way, ‘
I’ve always been this way, I assure you. I posted my first comments on this board to lash out at some people whose comments I didn’t like. I always speak my mind, whether it’s positive or negative.
‘you are taking yourself to a place where you can join sampo in the cheap seats with your pro-active anti-everything except my candidate scree.’
So when have I ever unfairly attacked another top-tier candidate? Or attacked people who don’t support my candidate?
October 1st, 2007 at 1:31 pm
#128 Tommy – OK, gotcha. That makes lots of sense. And it’s predominantly a numbers game anyway. Gives folks lots to argue, analyze, tweak and bend. Great fun.
October 1st, 2007 at 7:54 pm
Note: those numbers are all wrong. This is what it should really look like:
Mitt Romney 26% (+17)
Rudy Giuliani 23% (-3)
John McCain 15% (+3)
Fred Thompson 10% (-11)
Ron Paul 25% (+1)
Mike Huckabee 1% (-8%)
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in South Carolina (524 Republicans and 76 independent voters).