I am currently on a short break/hiatus from politics, so I haven’t had time to post or comment in recent days, but I wanted to give a quick update on a very strong pickup for Fred Thompson in California…
Today, at a press conference in Sacramento, California, Senator Fred Thompson announced State Senator Tom McClintock as his California State Chair as well as eleven other Republican legislators who will serve as state co-chairs.
First elected to the California State Assembly at age 26, Senator Tom McClintock has been involved in California state politics since the mid-1970s. He has served as Ventura County Republican Party Chair, state Assemblyman, state Senator, and is a former head of the Claremont Institute’s Golden State Center for Policy Studies. He is widely considered the most recognized conservative politician in California and is a strong leader among social and fiscal conservatives within the state.
“Like many Americans, it has been a long time since I’ve felt that I could trust a presidential candidate to respect our Constitution, defend our borders, reduce the burdens of government on our families, and restore that uniquely American vision of individual freedom - and who at the same time has the natural ability to reach the millions of voters who feel that neither party stands for these principles any longer,” said Senator McClintock. “For the first time in 20 years, I believe that such a candidate has stepped forward. And I am here today to pledge my whole-hearted support for Fred Thompson’s candidacy for President of the United States.”
“I am so pleased to have Senator Tom McClintock serving as my California State Chair. Tom and I share a mutual belief in the fundamental role of government and the common sense conservative principles of low taxes, border security, and the protection of life,” said Senator Thompson. “I am also proud to have these other Republican leaders serving my campaign and look forward to working with them and Senator McClintock in spreading our message of consistent conservatism across California and throughout the nation.”

McClintock
Hope everyone is doing well and I’ll be back before too long…
Here’s Hizzoner’s reaction to last night’s debate from his interview with Sean Hannity:
SEAN HANNITY: “Let me start with the Democrats blasting you. You were a big name last night in the debate even though you weren’t there. I’m sure you’re aware of it by now.”
MAYOR GIULIANI: “Sean, we claimed victory in last night’s debate. I think I was the clear winner since I got mentioned more than the Democrats got mentioned and I didn’t make a mistake. I didn’t say that I saw an unidentified flying object. I didn’t give two internally contradictory answers to one question. Never seen that before. I’ve seen Hillary, you know do a southern accent in the South and talk like a New Yorker in New York and take two different positions on Iran and six different positions on Iraq , but I never saw her take two different positions in one minute in front of the same audience.”
HANNITY: “It’s priceless isn’t it?”MAYOR GIULIANI: “No, I think that we should just keep that tape. It says everything that Obama and Edwards were trying to say about her not being able to take and stick with a position. It is-I’ve never seen that in a presidential debate. I’ve seen a lot of things go wrong, but I’ve never seen anybody say two totally contradictory things about a simple subject – either for or against driver’s licenses for illegals. This is not like a really complex question.”
HANNITY: “Well, she equivocated on a number of issues here including the answer on Social Security. A blue ribbon commission?”
MAYOR GIULIANI: “She usually gets out of it by saying, ‘I don’t answer hypothetical questions. These are complex matters of war and peace, life and death.’ Give me a break. A driver’s license is not. You either are for it or against it. Obama was able to get the answer out. He said he’s for it. I’m against it. Ok. We can debate that. I can respect the disagreement. But that kind of game they play. I mean this is the worst of the Clinton years coming back, I think, to kind of stare her in the face.” …
Happy Halloween Everyone!
- Rudy Giuliani 31% (32%)
- John McCain 18% (15%)
- Fred Thompson 17% (21%)
- Mitt Romney 9% (9%)
- Mike Huckabee 8% (4%)
- Ron Paul 3% (1%)
- Tom Tancredo 1% (1%)
- Don’t Know 8% (6%)
Second Choice
- Rudy Giuliani 20%
- John McCain 19%
- Fred Thompson 15%
- Mitt Romney 11%
- Mike Huckabee 5%
- Ron Paul 3%
- Tom Tancredo 2%
Survey of 648 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted October 17-23. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll released in September are in parentheses.
General Election Match-Up
- Hillary Clinton 51%
- Rudy Giuliani 43%
Survey of 1,607 registered voters was conducted October 17-23. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points.
The Edwards campaign has chosen Halloween to instill fear in the hearts of their Democratic constituents with this e-mail that is sure to elicit a sentiment of schadenfreude in conservative circles:
This nightmare on Pennsylvania Avenue is not as remote as you might think-but you can keep it from coming true.
With just hours to go before our deadline for federal matching funds at midnight tonight, your contribution today will help John Edwards win the Democratic nomination-and scare off the Republicans in 2008!
Polls show that with candidates other than John Edwards at the top of the Democratic ticket, Democrats will have a tough time defending the blue states and winning the swing states we’ll need to take the White House in 2008. We could even lose our majorities in Congress!
The American people are hungry for change. They don’t want a candidate who defends the broken system in Washington. Any candidate who stands with the lobbyists instead of the American people will lose.
But with John Edwards at the top of the ticket, we can turn red states blue, build stronger Democratic majorities in Congress, and help Democrats take back more governorships and state legislatures across the country.
Because John knows that in this election, we need a bold leader-not someone who’s just a little better than the Republicans. John is the only candidate in the race who has won in a red state. And poll after poll show him out-performing all the other Democrats against all of the top Republican candidates-especially in the swing states and red states we’ll need to win to take back the White House.
So don’t wait-click here to help us meet our goal of raising $500,000 online before the deadline strikes at midnight tonight!
Thank you for taking action-and Happy Halloween!
Sincerely,
–Jonathan Prince
Deputy Campaign Manager, John Edwards for President
October 31, 2007PS - I just gave $100 — will you contribute what you can today to help us meet our goal?
- Hillary Clinton 46%
- Rudy Giuliani 41%
- Hillary Clinton 47%
- John McCain 40%
- Hillary Clinton 49%
- Fred Thompson 37%
- Hillary Clinton 52%
- Mike Huckabee 31%
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 24. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Mitt Romney was not included in this poll. In the 2004 presidential election, Senator Kerry defeated President Bush in Maryland, 56-43%.
From David Brody:
Mitt Romney’s campaign tells The Brody File that Bill Wichterman, who used to do conservative and religious outreach for Fred Thompson’s campaign, has joined Team Romney. This is a nice “get.” He’ll be a part of the Faith and Values steering committee.
Bill Wichterman left the Thompson campaign because Thompson DOES NOT support the federal marriage amendment. At least the version that is on the table now. Mitt Romney does support it. Wichterman liked that fit. Who can blame him?
This is a guy who has been big on the federal marriage amendment for years. When Bill Frist was trying to push the amendment through the Senate, it was Wichterman who was leading the charge by getting social conservative groups organized and mobilized. Expect him to be a big boost for the Romney campaign when it comes to the marriage issue. His depth of knowledge here is masterful.
I’m one day early with this, but I’ll be in a meeting all day tomorrow. Think of it as a Halloween present.
The investors see a two man race with the collapse of Fred Thompson (movement is from Oct 1 until now):
| Rank | Name | Value | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giuliani | 40.9 | +5.0 |
| 2 | Romney | 29.3 | +6.6 |
| 3 | Thompson | 8.4 | -16.2 |
| 4 | McCain | 7.1 | +2.1 |
| 5 | Paul | 7.0 | +0.6 |
| 6 | Huckabee | 5.7 | +2.6 |
| 7 | Hunter | 0.1 | E |
| Tancredo | 0.1 | E | |
| Brownback | — | — | |
| T Thompson | — | — | |
| Gilmore | — | — |
We knew this would be a primary campaign of contrasts. Each candidate has their own strategy for winning the nomination, which makes it exciting to watch, and we knew each candidate had their own idea of a winning platform as well. For Governor Romney, that platform has been articulated as his now infamous three-legged stool. For Mayor Giuliani, pundits have long suspected he was replacing the social conservative leg with the “electability” leg.
Well, according to AP reports out of North Dakota (where the state Republican Party recently held a dinner and straw poll - more on that later), it looks like the Giuliani campaign is throwing out the stool all together and just going with the electability argument now.
Here’s what Mitt’s son Tagg said at the ND dinner:
“Personally, I think the best way to beat Hillary Clinton is not to water down our values, or to try to act more like Hillary Clinton, or try to blur the distinction between Republicans and Democrats. I think we need a strong Republican.”
In stark contrast, here’s what Kevin Cramer, spokesman for Giuliani said after Tagg’s speech:
“We are here to choose a candidate who can win next November. It does us no good to stand on our beautiful, wonderful principles, and lose to Hillary Clinton.”
Courtesy of the Giuliani campaign themselves, you now have a very clear choice between two political philosophies that couldn’t be more diametrically opposed. (I would suggest this blog I wrote over at RedState as an in-depth look at this topic, long before Rudy Giuliani came into the picture.)
And about that straw poll… North Dakota has been thought to be going solidly to Giuliani up until now - after all, Rudy’s one of the only candidates (if not the only one) who has campaigned in the state and gotten endorsements from the state, and it is the place he hired a campaign director before even having one in South Carolina. But the results of the straw poll showed different results:
This result prompted Jonathan Martin to remark, “I thought [ND] was Rudy country?”.
Great read by Tony Blankley…
One prominent conservative commentator last week, whose writing and judgment I usually admire, warned us that Huckabee was yet another in a long line of “Southern Poor-boy Populist Demagogue(s).
“Think Huey Long or George Wallace, James K. Vardaman or ‘Pitchfork’ Ben Tillman, to name the most salient examples of this genus. … Even so canny a politician as Franklin Roosevelt feared Huey Long, for Long’s motivational skills among a huge segment of the Roosevelt Coalition.”
Forgive me, but while I never met Huey Long, I have met, sat down, broken bread and talked with Mike Huckabee. He is no more like Huey Long than our pet kitten “Tiger” is like his jungle beast namesake. Huey Long’s use of his state police to bully Louisiana politicians and businesses (as well as his vicious demagogic rhetoric) earned him the dubious place he has in our history. As far as I can tell, Huckabee’s worst sins are refusing to sign Grover Norquist’s no-tax pledge and expressing in word and policy some limited sympathy for the working poor of Arkansas.
While I support Norquist’s pledge and hold a hard-line position on illegals, it is absurd to consign Huckabee to some ideologically dangerous, nondemocratic, political zombie graveyard. Free-market, low-tax conservatives may point with alarm at Huckabee’s policies if they wish. But what is it in the conservative drinking water recently that gives rise to such bilious language and such excluding ways of thinking?
It would behoove those of us who have been conservative Washington voices for some decades now to exercise a little modesty and humility when it comes to defining what will constitute the new, winning, principled conservatism for the next generation. National conservatism has won more elections than it has lost in the past quarter-century. But in the absence of a completely dysfunctional Democratic Party, we are not likely to continue to do so in the future with exactly the same talking points and programs we have held in the past.
This party needs to change directions. Not wholesale changes, but subtle changes are needed. Conservatives, rather Republicans masqerading as Conservatives, had 6 years of control. That happens about every 30 years for one party or the other. Very, very rare thing when it does. And we blew it.
Lest you think the mad scramble to move to February 5 has ended, I give you Rhode Island and their 20 delegates this morning.
The state lawmakers voted yesterday to move their primary to February 5, joining at least 20 other states on that day.
The only polling done for Rhode Island was in April of 2006, long before Giuliani entered the race or anyone was really paying attention. At that time, McCain was leading Romney 50-14. Governor Carcieri has endorsed Romney.
Here’s Scotty:
Rasmussen Reports Daily National Republican Primary Tracking Poll
- Giuliani - 24%
- Thompson - 16%
- Romney - 14%
- Huckabee - 12%
- McCain - 11%
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
- Rudy Giuliani 27% (28%)
- Fred Thompson 17% (12%)
- Mitt Romney 14% (15%)
- John McCain 13% (11%)
- Mike Huckabee 6% (2%)
- Ron Paul 2% (2%)
- Duncan Hunter 1% (1%)
- Tom Tancredo 1% (1%)
- Don’t Know 15% (16%)
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- John McCain 72% / 10% (+62%)
- Rudy Giuliani 71% / 12% (+59%)
- Fred Thompson 52% / 7% (+45%)
- Mitt Romney 47% / 11% (+36%)
- Mike Huckabee 25% / 8% (+17%)
Survey of 678 registered Republicans was conducted October 23-29. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Results from the poll released August 15 are in parentheses.
General Election Match-Ups
- Rudy Giuliani 45% (43%)
- Hillary Clinton 43% (46%)
- Hillary Clinton 46% (49%)
- Fred Thompson 41% (38%)
- Hillary Clinton 44% (47%)
- John McCain 44% (41%)
- Hillary Clinton 48%
- Mitt Romney 38%
Survey of 1,636 American voters was conducted October 23-29. The margin of error is +/- 2.4 percentage points. Results from the poll released August 15 are in parentheses.
I was reading Yepsen’s article on how Huckabee could very well win Iowa. I thought for certain a writer such as Yepsen would offer some concrete evidence to explain the assertion that Huckabee could some how unseat Mitt for the top spot in Iowa. Instead we got a litany of folksy stylistic points: Huck’s guitar playing abilities, humorous sense of speaking prose and the fact he received a standing ovation at the recent Reagen day dinner. It almost seemed a dumbing down of the Iowa electorate by Yepsen.
Huckabee’s rise has been heralded by some as the dark horse coming to town. After the let down you and I call Fred, some are ready for another Dark horse. The MSM is claiming Huckabee status as true contender because “Hey, if we can split the SoCon vote all the better.” Rudy lovers seem to be playing the same game because “Hey, if we can split the SoCon vote all the better.” Makes one feel like a bit of a tool at the end of the day.
Anyway, with this in mind I decided to dig a little a deeper in the numbers and find out just how fast Huckabee’s numbers are really growing. The answer? A little but not really that much.
First lets look at the National Numbers. Huckabee is gaining ground, around 1.5-2% per month. This chart (as are all others) is based upon the RCP numbers.
(V.V. stands for Values Voters Conference. I added this into the chart since many would argue that is were the Huckabee bounce would stem from.)
Let’s look at that chart with Giuliani added:
What I find interesting here is that Giuliani’s numbers month to month, directly mirror Romney’s, yet no grief for Giuliani from the Rudy lovers and MSM. Granted Huckabee can move over Romney quicker in National numbers.
Now lets turn our eyes to the state of Iowa, where many claim Romney needs to win- which I believe he will quite handily.
What is interesting is the fact that when averaged, Romney actually enjoys the larger bounce after the Values Voters summit. Huckabee’s rate of growth has actually slowed since then:
Huckabee’s loss of momentum could easily be attributed to weakness on immigration and economic factors, despite strong SoCon credentials. Some say no, but these two items rate high for to Iowa voters. Lets look at the recent University Iowa Poll. In order of importance for likely Republican Caucus goers, the most important issues to Iowa voters are:
The number 2 and 4 important items are Huckabee’s two greatest weaknesses. Abortion, Huck’s strength is number 6. Romney’s strengths are 2,4,5 and 8. Gay marriage will be equal, since Huck has always been against it, and Romney has fought it very adamantly- and always stood against it. When you add to Hucks weaknesses on key Iowa issues a lack of serious funding and formal ground organization I fail to see how Huck can capitalize on his strengths in a manner that will cause a huge upswing for him in Iowa.
Going back to the “Changes in Averages Iowa” chart we can see that Huck’s rise in the all important early state is dynamically soft. If we average the trends I note in the chart for both Huckabee and Romney, assume the trends will remain static and then project those till January this is how the race will shape:
Now this isn’t my prediction, this is a projection based upon current post V.V. trends continuing between Huckabee and Romney in Iowa. This projection would make for a strong a second for Huckabee, but not much more. A strong second place would leave Huckabee out of money and praying for a miracle in South Carolina. anything less and he is done. Huck could end up really making a huge upswing, sometime in between now and January. But with the holidays diverting peoples attention and money, it’s tough to see how it will be done. If he hasn’t made the leap by Thanksgiving he has no chance at number one in Iowa, and will be relegated to the club of “so close but so far” with a chair next to Brownback.
So in summation, is Huckabee a real threat to Romney’s goals? A small one. On a scale of 1-10, 1 being Duncan Hunter and 10 being Rudy Giuliani, he’s probably a four with Thompson a three and Ron Paul a two.
Erick Erickson has been touting the mantra: “Down with punditry. Up with activism.” We whole-heartily agree. Over at MyManMitt we’ve put up a quick splash page for Halloween to raise some money for the campaign. This is something we’ve done periodically throughout the year.
In short, we drive traffic to the site with quality information and them move our audience from readers to pundits to activists. Its worked pretty well to date. We’ve raised almost $80,000.
I’m hoping the model and the key learnings we’ve had from this process will be helpful to all of us once the nominee is known (Mitt or Rudy).
I haven’t broached this subject with Kavon yet… but what do you think? What role should Race42008.com play in the general election? Just news and punditry? What kind of activism should we promote here if any?
Rudy Giuliani
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