I never saw this coming

Hat tip to the brody file:

The Brody File got its grubby little hands on the following press release that is going out Tuesday morning. Here’s the title:

Christian Coalition Blogger Says Senator McCain May Win Presidency With “America is a Christian Nation” Comments

Read part of the press release below:

“Comments like ‘America was founded on Christian principles’ by Senator John McCain just might make him president. In an interview last Saturday with a Christian-oriented webset called Beliefnet, Senator McCain stated that “I just have to say in all candor that since this nation was founded primarily on Christian principles, personally, I would prefer someone who has a grounding in my faith.” The fact that the left-wing Muslim groups vociferously reacted against McCain’s remarks, just added validity to his comments, and indeed value for his presidential nomination hopes…

Who knows? The McCain Straight Talk Express just might begin appealing to a divided conservative community with courageous comments such as these.”

Hey folks, this Republican nomination contest is turning into the wild, wild West. Who knows what’s going to happen next? It’s a crazy time. McCain talking about a Christian Nation, Rudy talking about the Bible, Evangelical leaders may bolt the GOP. What’s around the corner? Ron Paul singing “To Dream the Impossible Dream”? or Duncan Hunter starring in “Man of La Mancha”?

Is McCain behind it all? I seriously doubt it, even to the point of calling it highly unlikely, but it does make an interesting conspiracy worthy of some overactive supporters of a certain candidate who goes by the title of Dr..

Our own national War of the Roses seems more like a lovefest every day. First there were reports that President Bush views Hillary Clinton as the Ike to his Truman. Then, leading neoconservatives like David Brooks began to say nice things about the senator from New York. And now, it appears that the Clinton economic team may be reassembling. In the Bush Treasury Department. Bob Novak, quite naturally, has the scoop:

Eyebrows at the Treasury were raised last Tuesday when Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. named a major Democratic fundraiser to an important advisory role. On the next day, eyebrows were still elevated when Under Secretary Robert K. Steel participated in an event spearheaded by Bill Clinton’s two Treasury secretaries.

A longtime Republican office holder now in the Bush administration noted these developments and e-mailed a fellow Republican outside the government: “This leads some to wonder whether this Treasury has become the pre-placed Hillary Clinton team.” If she is elected president, it is presumed Sen. Clinton will want her own Treasury team. But she cannot be too unhappy with George W. Bush’s current lineup there.

…

Paulson marched to his own drummer last Tuesday by naming Eric Mindich, chairman of Eton Park Capital Management, to head the Asset Managers’ Committee of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets. A former Goldman Sachs colleague of Paulson’s, Mindich is a top-level Democratic fundraiser. He was in Sen. John Kerry’s inner circle for the 2004 presidential campaign and backs Sen. Barack Obama for 2008.

Republicans in the administration were amazed that the White House acquiesced in appointing a Democratic activist to lead a group “to develop best practices” for asset managers. These critics wonder why President Bush did not ask Paulson why he could not name a Republican financier for this position. I posed the question last week, and a Treasury spokesman replied that “we were looking for somebody who is well respected in the industry” to fill what is “not really a political position.” By that measure, no Treasury job can be considered political.

That includes Bob Steel, under secretary for domestic finance. Last Wednesday, Steel participated in a round-table discussion on “recent financial market disruptions” at the liberal Brookings Institution. Former Secretary Robert Rubin headed the panel that included two of his Clinton administration associates: his successor as secretary, Lawrence Summers, and former Deputy Secretary Roger Altman.

Steel surely did not feel out of place as a Republican stranger in the Democratic paradise at Brookings, for he is no Republican. Brought to the Treasury by Paulson a year ago, Steel is a retired Goldman Sachs vice chairman who worked there with Rubin and Paulson. Federal Election Commission records show no political contributions by Steel since the 2002 cycle, when he gave exclusively to Democrats (including Sen. Charles Schumer of New York). Steel, who is Board of Trustees chairman of Duke University in Durham, N.C., contributed to the North Carolina Democratic Party and its Senate candidates, Dan Blue and Erskine Bowles.

Although Paulson was a generous Republican contributor and prodigious Bush fundraiser (over $100,000) in the 2004 cycle, his earlier political giving was more varied. He contributed to Bill Clinton in 1992, Democrat Bill Bradley’s 2000 presidential campaign, the feminist Emily’s List and Wall Street’s favorite Democrat, Chuck Schumer. Most of the Paulson family’s Democratic contributions come from the secretary’s wife, Wendy, who has supported Hillary Clinton.

Have the Bushes and the Clintons gotten a tad too chummy? Are the two families ready to hand off the baton yet again? And what does America’s newfound fascination with the Old World concept of dynasty say about the health of the Republic?

Soren Dayton links to this Economist post that I think encapsulates the rationale behind the third party effort being discussed by prominent social conservatives:

…at this point it looks like a Democrat, Hillary or otherwise, is going to win this election regardless. If Christian conservatives can argue that by withholding their support they caused the GOP to lose, they will enjoy more leverage in future, more winnable elections.

I think that that’s exactly the train of thought here. It’s also a testament not only to how much the social conservative influence over the party has waned that Rudy Giuliani is still the front runner despite more “acceptable” conservatives in the race, but also the fact that SoCons would be willing to deliberately cost the party the election merely to reassert their dominance.

While it’s possible that this could be the outcome, there is an equal, if not more, possibility that non-social conservatives become so upset that Rudy was basically the victim of fratricide that there’s a rebellion against social conservatives immediately following the election.

Another problem, potentially even more disastrous, is what happens if SoCons do organize a third party effort against Rudy and he manages to still win the election. Much like how Joe Lieberman was freed from the normal constraints on Senate Democrats (he votes with Republicans on almost all matters related to the GWOT) after fending off Ned Lamont and the netroots, it’s highly likely that Rudy wouldn’t go out of his way to advocate for SoCon policies. Such a scenario would essentially render their movement impotent.

UPDATE: Rudy responds:

“I’m working on one party right now, the Republican Party,” he said after visiting patrons at Dino’s Seaville Diner. “This is a long primary, and once there are nominees on either side, we’ll figure that out.”

continued

Note: The audio is a little out of sync in the second part, but still worth watching. I love his comments about the elitist culture at Yale.

UPDATE: It will be a little while before I post the third and final part of this interview. It’s not activating correctly at the moment.

Rudy Giuliani

• Congressman Rudy Giuliani: Pro-Life?
• Rudy Giuliani: Pro Life?
• Giuliani’s big idea to start a revolution in diplomacy
• Giuliani Visits Controversial Steak Shop
  At Geno’s Steaks, Sign Went Up Reading “This Is America. When Ordering Please Speak English.”
• Giuliani Visits Cheesesteak Stand
• Giuliani’s Abortion Views Risk Third-Party Revolt
  by Mara Liasson
• On the Road: Giuliani in California
• Giuliani back in N.J. to stump, raise money for others, self
• Giuliani touts Republican credentials while stumping for Cape May candidates
• NJ’s 2nd district Republicans back Giuliani
• Why Is Rudy Campaigning In New Jersey?
• Rudy Giuliani coming to Estero on Saturday for town hall meeting
• Giuliani Campaign Expands South Carolina Staff
• Giuliani Commits to Expanding School Choice
• Will Giuliani Face A Roy Moore Challenge?
• Christian right is split over GOP field
  Conservative evangelicals haven’t found a perfect fit among the Republican presidential candidates – and that could benefit social liberal Giuliani.
• The Third Party Threat
• Giuliani Inspires Threat of a Third-Party Run
• Christian leaders threaten to abandon Republicans
  Dobson, others meet in Salt Lake City to plan options in presidential campaign
• Religious right may blackball Giuliani
  Christian conservative leaders privately consider supporting a third-party, antiabortion candidate should Rudy Giuliani win the GOP nomination.
• Rudy, the conservative movement, their constituents, and power
• Fighting Against Rudy
• The Dreaded “Religious Right” Rears Its Head
• For Now, A Third Party’s An Empty Threat
• Rudy reacts to third-party buzz
• Rude Giuliani
  If he wants voters to respect his privacy, he ought to show some respect for basic manners.
• General Alarm for Rudy
  The problem with Giuliani’s run was supposed to be that he was too far left to win a primary. Actually, it’s the opposite.
  By John Heilemann

Fred Thompson

• Thompson Raised $8M (Plus) In Third Quarter
• Fred Thompson Fundraising
• Craig Crawford’s Trail Mix: Thompson’s Fundraising Test
• The My Way politics of Fred Thompson
• Thompson: Iraq had WMDs before U.S. invaded
• Thompson meeting skepticism
  Former senator fails to galvanize GOP’s core voters
• Out-of-Town Critics Too Tough On Thompson?
  The reviews are in: Fred Thompson’s plunge into the presidential campaign “was right up there with Britney Spears at the MTV awards.”
• Thompson: Lazy or Lukewarm?
• Unique gay-marriage plan draws lukewarm response
• Thompson Defends Gay Marriage Stance
• Thompson Leaves More Questions Than Answers

John McCain

• Runaway federal spending will end on my watch
  by Senator John McCain
• Jewish groups criticize McCain for saying he prefers a Christian as president
• McCain’s Stand on ‘Christian Principles’
• With Bump, McCain Heads South to Stump
• McCain’s money

Mitt Romney

• Mitt Romney in town to raise money, praise Blunt
• Poll paradox: Romney leads, lags
• Campaign ‘08: The Making of Mitt Romney
  Voters can’t connect with a candidate they feel they don’t know. Mitt Romney has to decide how much he wants to share.
  By Jonathan Darman and Lisa Miller
• Romney’s strategist doesn’t think much of Gravel’s ‘Rock’ video
• Romney announces Missouri team
• Romney On The Supreme Court
• Ann Romney’s Web Site Launches
• In First Lady Race, Romney First Online
• Kerry Takes a Shot At Romney

Newt Gingrich

• Why I Decided Not to Run For President
  by Newt Gingrich
• Newt’s Non-Run
  By Rich Galen
• Gingrich chose nonprofit over candidacy, lawyer says
• Gingrich Decision Puts Conservatives on Notice
• Gingrich Won’t Toss Hat in Ring
• Gingrich says no to bid for President
• Gingrich, Bill Clinton agree on leading candidates
• A few clues about the Gingrich abdication

General Race 4 2008 News

• Minnesota Poll: A strong showing for McCain
  Minnesotans are backing the front-runners, but they still are warm to McCain’s troubled candidacy.
• Democrats Surpass Republicans in Fund-Raising
• GOP race no clearer after funding reports
• Putting The GOP Fundraising Numbers In Context
• It’s All About the Money: Ron Paul Surprises, Thompson Disappoints
• Hints of Strong Fundraising Emerge
  Stronger-Running Candidates May Have Dodged Summer Blues
• Campaign Fund Reports on the Way
  Presidential Campaigns Prepare to Show Their Third-Quarter Fundraising Cards
• Candidates to reveal fundraising numbers
• Day of Reckoning on Campaign Cash
  By Karen Tumulty
• All eyes on Romney over campaign funds
• Date for caucuses might shift one week
  States still jockeying for positions in presidential nominating process
• Conservatives Consider 3rd-Party Run
• Christian Conservatives Weigh Abandoning GOP
  Leaders Balk at Supporting Abortion Rights Presidential Candidate, Consider Third Party ‘08 Run
• The Third Party Climb Down Begins
• Justice Thomas’s Remarks May Impact Race in 2008
• ARG’s Bizarre SC Poll
• Technical Thoughts on the ARG Poll
• Dick Bennett on ARG’s South Carolina Poll
• 2008 Republican Presidential Primary
  Republican Nomination Race Gets Murkier With No Clear Frontrunner
• 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary
  Clinton Nomination is Not Inevitable
• Right-Of-Center Bloggers Select Their Favorite People On The Right (2007 Edition)
• Clinton, Romney strategists face off on ads
• Loyal Network Backs Obama After His Help
• Obama reports $19 million in new donations
• Obama Announces Total Campaign Chest of $80 Million
• Barack Obama hits right buttons in dash for cash
• Election 2008: South Carolina Democratic Primary
  South Carolina Democrats: Clinton 43% Obama 30%
• Trinkets on the Ticket
• Independents May Be Crucial in New Hampshire
• This city is not nearly as liberal or different as New Yorkers believe
  The frontrunning presidential candidates show that the US is no longer polarised between heartland and coast
• Dems who condemned MoveOn took its cash
• Hank Paulson’s DNA
  By Robert Novak
• Iraqi deaths fall by 50 percent
• Senator Biden hits out at Maliki, US embassy
• In Iraq, Repeated Support for a Unified State
• Winning Ugly
  Iraq doesn’t need to be a Kodak moment.
  By Victor Davis Hanson
• The Past, Present, and Future of Neoconservatism
  By Joshua Muravchik
• Rush Limbaugh’s Challenge to Senator Reid
• Do Polls Miss Views of the Young & Mobile?
• The Pollster.com Disclosure Project

Hillary Clinton

• Clinton reports raising $27 million
• Clinton hits turbulence
  By Mike Allen and John Harris
• Memo to Hillary: You’re playing a dangerous game
  Commentary: Assessing the 2008 presidential candidates’ media showings
• Voters Reject Clinton Baby Bond Proposal By More Than 2-to-1 Margin
• A Learning Experience
  Hillary Clinton’s no-compromise approach as first lady failed. Now she’s taking a different tack in an attempt to return to the White House
• Local Democrats in West fear impact of unpopular ticket leader
  Party officials in the Rocky Mountain region worry their congressional candidates’ chances may be hurt by unfavorable presidential hopefuls, such as Hillary Clinton.
• Dodge of the day
• Clinton Turns on Clinton on Free Trade
• Sen. Clinton’s Empty Table
  The candidate has no plan to fix Social Security.
• Game, set, match . . . for Hillary?
• Hillary and Bill’s true colors unfold on Fox News
  By Dick Morris

This will always be in the background of any primary, so it is time to highlight one of its conservatives icons.

I don’t get shivers up my spine or get excited by much in the political and legal world, but this does that to me. I sit here and watch this in utter fascination at the silent one finally open up. What a brilliant mind. He has some harsh words for his critics, which will be outlined in parts 2 and 3. Behind the public curtain he puts around himself, he comes across as such a friendly person.

The one week I have to miss Drudge’s radio show and he goes off the air! Darn it!

As a huge fan of talk radio for many years (and not just conservative talk either), I can tell you that Drudge’s show was truly one of the best on the air. Not only does he have a perfect voice for radio, he treated all of his callers with respect which is the key to crafting a show that creates a sense of familiarity and of community. This in turn makes listeners feel that they are part of the show and keeps them coming back.

I will really miss it. Hopefully he will not be gone for long.

Not to completely beat this subject to death, but I found this ranking of the accuracy of the polls in 2004 from J.R. Drummond on Polipundit. I thought it gives a little overview of my arguments last night, and gives some thoughts on the other polling firms. Here is their rankings:

#10 – Fox News Poll: Fox News made predictions in 6 states, all in Battleground States. The FNP made 3 calls right, and 3 wrong, and was off by an average of 8.33 points. None of their picks was the closest in a state, and one of their final polls was off by more than 10 points.

#9 – Quinnipiac University Poll: Quinnipiac made predictions in 5 states, and in 2 Battleground States. The QUP made 4 calls right, and 1 call wrong, and was off by an average of 7.00 points. None of their picks was the closest in a state, and one of their final polls was off by more than 10 points. In the Battleground States, the QUP made 1 call right, 1 call wrong, and was off by an average of 5.50 points.

#8 – American Research Group: ARG made predictions in all 50 states, and in all 14 Battleground States. ARG made 45 calls right, and 5 calls wrong, and was off by an average of 6.84 points. Two of their picks were the closest in a states (not counting those states where ARG was the only major poll to make a pick), and 7 of their final polls were off by more than 10 points. In the Battleground States, ARG made 9 calls right, and 5 calls wrong, and was off by an average of 5.50 points. 1 Battleground call by ARG was the closest of the major polls, and 1 was off by more than 10 points.

#7 – Strategic Vision: SV made predictions in 11 states, and in 7 Battleground States. SV got 7 calls right, and 4 wrong, and was off by an average of 6.27 points. None of their picks was the closest in a state, and one of their final polls was off by more than 10 points. In the Battleground States, SV got 4 calls right, and 3 wrong, and was off by an average of 5.43 points.

#6 – Zogby: Mr. “John Kerry Will Win” made predictions in 20 states, and in 13 Battleground States. Zogby got 16 calls right, and 4 wrong, and was off by an average of 6.10 points. Two of his final polls were the closest major poll, and another one of his final polls was off by more than 10 points. In the Battleground States, Zogby got 9 right, and 4 wrong, and was off by an average of 4.92 points.

#5 – Mason-Dixon: M-D made predictions in 24 states, and in 13 Battleground States. M-D got 23 calls right, and 1 wrong, and was off by an average of 5.75 points. None of their calls was the closest, but none of their polls was invalidated for being more than 10 points off. In the Battleground States, M-D got 12 right, 1 wrong, and was off by an average of 5.62 points.

#4 – CNN/USA Today/Gallup: CUG made predictions in 15 states, and in 12 Battleground States. CUG got 11 calls right and 4 wrong, and was off by an average of 5.33 points. Two of their final polls was the closest for that state (both in Battleground States), and none of their polls were invalidated for being more than 10 points off. In the Battleground States, CUG got 8 right and 4 wrong, and was off by an average of 5.33 points.

#3 – Research 2000: R2K made predictions in 13 states, and in 7 Battleground States. R2K got 12 calls right, and 1 wrong, and was off by an average of 5.15 points. One of their final polls was the closest for that state ( in a Battleground State), and none of their polls were invalidated for being more than 10 points off. In the Battleground States, R2K got 6 right and 1 wrong, and was off by an average of 4.57 points.

#2 – Rasmussen Reports: A close finish, but number two is Rasmussen Reports. RR made predictions in 33 states, and in 13 Battleground States. RR got all their calls correct, without a single miss, and they were off by an average of 5.82 points. What hurt them was their wide variance of accuracy in support. Three of their final polls were the closest for their state, but another 3 of their final polls were off by more than 10 points. In the Battleground States, RR got all 13 right, and they were off by an average of 4.15 points.

#1 – Survey USA: (drum roll, please) Survey USA. SUSA made predictions in 30 states, and in 9 Battleground States. SUSA got 29 right and 1 wrong, and was off by an average of 3.70 points. So, why does SUSA win with 29/30, and beat RR take second with 33/33? It comes down to hitting the bullseye. EIGHTEEN of Survey USA’s final polls were the closest for that state, almost twice as many as every other major poll PUT TOGETHER! Also, none of their polls were invalidated for being more than 10 points off. In the Battleground States, SUSA got 8 right and 1 wrong, and was off by an average of 3.44 points. Three of SUSA’s final polls in Battleground States were the closest for that state, again the best of any poll.

This is pretty similar to my personal opinions. I have never thought that FNC/Opinion polls were very good, or Quinniapac for that matter. Everybody is already aware that I am no fan of ARG.
I’m worn out by these arguments, and will take a short break from commenting. I’ll still post news when I get it.

Reported and updated as we see them:

Republicans
Thompson: $8 million
McCain: $5 million

Democrats
Obama: $19 million (plus $1 million in GE receipts)
Edwards: $7 million
Richardson: $5.2 million
Dodd: $1.5 million

Newt’s announcement that he will not seek the 2008 Republican nomination created quite a bit of debate here this weekend as to what current candidate he believes would most embody the ideals that he would have championed as a candidate himself.

Gingrich has ruled out an official endorsement. But he did comment on the current GOP field on ABC’s This Week yesterday (courtesy Hotline):

On the state of the GOP: “I think it’s conceivable if we nominate the wrong person you could end up in a ‘64. I think it’s more likely you end up in a 1976.”

Asked what that means: “That Senator Clinton comes out of the Democratic Convention ahead, that the Republicans nominate somebody and that they close the gap every day until the election but don’t quite win, because I think Senator Clinton, in the end, is such a polarizing figure that while I think she’s the most likely winner, I don’t think she’s likely to be a landslide winner under the circumstances.”

More: “The Republicans have got to get out from under Washington. And if we nominate somebody who is a continuation of where we are right now, we’re going to lose.”

Asked which GOPer comes closest to advocating his ideas: “Both Giuliani and Romney are beginning to articulate really dramatic change. I think that Thompson has not yet — I think Huckabee is very effective, and if Huckabee can find money, he will be dramatically competitive almost overnight.”

Asked if Huckabee can win: “He’s got to get money. I mean, if he gets money, he becomes instantly competitive, I think.”

I’m no stranger to bashing the MSM, but I am really at a loss for words today. Apparently, now the tactics have switched. Carl Cameron, of Fox News, is talking of Thompson’s fundraising success this quarter on his FNC blog and on his television reports:

FOX News has learned that Fred Thompson will report having raised in excess of $8 million in his first full quarter of fundraising. That does not include an additional $3.5 million he raised in June.

Thompson raised an average of $200K a day after his official campaign launch in September. He had more than 70,000 donors, far outpacing most candidates in both fields in their first quarters.
As recently as last week, Thompson aides were aggressively downplaying expectations, predicting they would raise barely over $5 million (it’s called lowballing). Today, those same aides are eager to report having topped their own low targets.

Other candidates have banked significantly more than Thompson in their first quarters, and in this one. Money is always a good index of support, and while Thompson’s performance is better than expected, it’s not the flood of cash Thompson aides were predicting all summer.

Thompson kicks off the fourth fundraising quarter in Iowa, where he plans to talk about the Republican Revolution of ‘94. The implied contrast with his Republican rivals: while Fred was being elected to the Senate endorsing the same principles he’s talking about today, Mitt Romney was endorsing gay and abortion rights while distancing himself from Ronald Reagan in Massachusetts, and Rudy Giuliani was endorsing Democrat Mario Cuomo for governor of New York.

Now, everyone on our side is thrilled. He’s raised well over 11.5 million including the June kickoff. In his television report, Cameron was also very impressed with Thompson’s kickoff theme today.

Before everyone says, well that’s just Fox spin, let’s go back a few weeks ago. Most of the Thompson supporters were ready to declare on all out war on Mr. Carl Cameron. Mr. Cameron has been very negative towards the Thompson campaign up until now. Here is Cameron’s reaction to Thompson’s kick off in New Hampshire, as published in Rolling Stone (via Smirkingchimp):

I’m still trying to process this when I spot Carl Cameron, the right-wing hatchet man for Fox News. Cameron is whaling on Thompson, doing a mocking impersonation of the candidate’s “Security, Unity, Prosperity” campaign shtick.

“We’re, uh, gonna be yoo-nited bah owre yoo-nity!” Cameron cracks.

A crowd of reporters doubles over in laughter. Then they get in their vehicles and chase after Thompson to the next event, so they can feverishly record those same hackneyed lines again and again for posterity. They’ll laugh in private, but they’ll be repeating that shit on air with a straight face for the next 400 days.

Well, I think as I stand by myself on the curb, so much for Fred Thompson. After all, logic dictates that anyone who’s too much of a lightweight for Fox News is probably…

Now, you can understand why I’m a little suprised by his reaction. Cameron is the one who labeled Fred with the Gucci shoes schtick, as well.

However, at the same time, no one inside or outside the campaign has ever said Thompson was going to raise 20 million dollars this quarter. Thompson beat his expectations, and might possible come within the top two this quarter. However, MSNBC wants to call this a disappointment. I’m sorry, but MSNBC is trying to change the rules after the fact. A couple of days ago, everyone was saying Thompson would be lucky to beat out McCain this quarter. Not since the early days of summer when some were talking him up to unrealistic levels did anyone ever say that he was going to raise twenty million or be a bust. This is September, not January. Thompson had a bullseye on his back long before he ever started actually fundraising, partly in thanks to MSNBC’s Mark Murray. Team Thompson’s not expecting miracles, but in dry fundraising, this ain’t to bad.
From hotair:

Since this is, after all, Fred’s first quarter of fundraising, NBC compares his numbers to the first-quarter totals for Rudy McRomney and finds them wanting. Not really fair. The campaign season was still fresh in January and donors had money to burn. Now the fatigue has set in and they’ve already peeled off a few bills so they’re cutting back.

What we’ve got here is the media trying to build expectations up even higher than they already are, and it’s kind of sad to watch them.

The National Federation of Republican Women held their convention in California this weekend, and Rudy ran away with the straw poll:

• Rudy Giuliani: 50%
• Fred Thompson: 21%
• Mitt Romney: 14%
• Huckabee: 7%
• Hunter: 4%
• McCain: 2%

Hat-tip: Soren Dayton (who also has some interesting tidbits on the convention itself).

I suspect these two new polls conducted by Pew Research will generate a lot of discussion across the blogosphere in the next couple of days. Among white Evangelicals 18-29 years old Bush’s approval rating has gone from an astronomic 87% in 2002 to a shockingly low 45% today. These results are especially interesting considering the news that the Democrats are intensely courting disaffected social conservatives and prominent SoCons are mulling forming a third party in the event that Rudy Giuliani wins the nomination.

(more…)

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (10/1)

• Fred Thompson 25%
• Rudy Giuliani 23%
• Mitt Romney 13%
• John McCain 10%
• Mike Huckabee 6%

Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

I was able to sit in on a bloggers conference call with Ann Romney to announce the launch of her new website, AnnRomney.com.

Here are the highlights:

Be sure to head on over to AnnRomney.com today and check out the new site.

So, what really happened with Newt 2008? Many pundits, here and elsewhere, divined his Newteness’ most recent statements as an indication that he would run after all. Then, with an obscure legal explanation, he puts the stops on. What’s really going on here?

The intrepid Byron York recites the more lengthy legal explanations behind Newt’s exit and notes:

The problem is that all that can be perfectly true and one can still ask why Gingrich did not know until Saturday morning that his going forward could involve possible violations of the campaign finance laws. Why go so far – creating a campaign website, securing pledges, taking a leave from Fox – without knowing the basic rules?

As the old maxim goes: “it is the first obligation of a statesman to get elected.” It appears that Newt & Co. just couldn’t figure out a legal way to get their message across and raise money at the same time. So instead… they folded.

Compare this to Mitt Romney, who set up the Commonwealth PAC, reaching into local state entities, raising money for local leaders, and taking the money leftover to pursue a run for the President — all of it through a legal, political vehicle. This took years of research, planning and preparation. And it worked.

Newt, for all his incredible ideas, is apparently handicapped when it comes to execution. Perhaps… his exit is all for the best.