On Friday, Aron posted a review of the crosstabs from the latest Gallup survey. I thought further analysis of the other polls released recently may be of interest as well:
CNN/WMUR NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY – Conducted 9/17-9/24
Mayor Giuliani Fav-Unfav among:
- Conservatives: 71%-22%
- Protestants: 71%-17%
- Catholic: 70%-23%
- Attend Church 1 or more times a week: 66%-25%
- 1-2 times a month: 71%-29%
Hotline/Diageo Poll Numbers 8/22-8/26
Primary Ballot Test Among Evangelicals
- Rudy Giuliani: 26%
- Fred Thompson: 16%
Primary Ballot Test Among Conservatives
- Rudy Giuliani: 27%
- Fred Thompson: 20%
Primary Ballot Test Among those who believe “abortion should not be permitted at all”
- Rudy Giuliani: 26%
- Fred Thompson: 20%
CBS NEWS POLL 8/8-8/12
- Giuliani leads the other major Republican primary hopefuls with a number of groups not expected to be favorable towards his candidacy, including voters who live in the South and West, conservatives, evangelical and born-again Christians, as well as voters who think that a candidate’s personal life should be a factor in deciding whom to support.
- Giuliani’s perceived weaknesses among the Republican base do not seem to be getting much traction among Republican primary voters. Giuliani leads in all regions of the country, with conservatives as well as moderates, and with evangelical Christians as well. And while Giuliani leads among primary voters who think their nominee should be judged on their political record alone, he also leads among those who think a candidate’s personal life should be taken into consideration, though by a smaller margin.
Primary Ballot Test Among Conservatives
- Rudy Giuliani: 31%
- Fred Thompson: 22%
- Mitt Romney: 17%
- John McCain: 12%
Primary Ballot Test Among evangelical Christians
- Rudy Giuliani: 29%
- Fred Thompson: 22%
- John McCain: 19%
- Mitt Romney: 6%
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:36 pm
Until a majority of Republican know that Giuliani supports abortion (as opposed to the 70% who can’t currently give his correct stance on the issue), these kinds of polls are meaningless.
The idea that Giuliani has a weakness among Social Conservatives is based on the fact that they have such a different view of a major issue(s) – that theory does not apply to Social Conservative who are unaware of the major difference of opinions.
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:51 pm
[...] More on Giuliani’s Conservative Support… [...]
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:07 pm
The only problem with some of these numbers is that they’re almost 2 months old.
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:11 pm
The Gallup and WMR polls are from last week.
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:13 pm
Primary Ballot Test Among those who believe “abortion should not be permitted at allâ€
When does Rudy Giuliani For Dummies hit the book shelves?
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:17 pm
Here’s an interesting take on the Giuliani siutation…
http://political-buzz.com/2007/10/02/giuliani-clearing-the-wall-with-conservatives/
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:18 pm
ACT Blog: ‘The idea that Giuliani has a weakness among Social Conservatives is based on the fact that they have such a different view of a major issue(s) – that theory does not apply to Social Conservative who are unaware of the major difference of opinions.’
Yeah. Who could guess that a mayor of New York City just might be pro-choice? You would have to be a genius.
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:19 pm
“The only problem with some of these numbers is that they’re almost 2 months old.”
“The Gallup and WMR polls are from last week.”
So are the Diageo/Hotline numbers…
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:22 pm
Oh, whoops, retract that last statement (#8), thought the date was September 22-26, while it was August. Nevermind.
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:24 pm
They need to ask, do you know giluliani’s stance on abortion. funny how they leave that question out.
there was a poll not to long ago that asked that question however. the number of how many didn’t know was quite high.
i am not sure when these people find out if they will care or not, but it the question is still in the air.
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:27 pm
JS, The Diego/Hotline poll was taken over a month ago.
Kavon,
The gallup was taken throughout August and September. I’m not criticizing you for posting it, but that gives for a large time frame, and goes to before Thompson entered the race.
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:27 pm
Js,
No problem, I see you caught it yourself.
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:28 pm
Jonathan Martin at the Politco has obtained some interesting internal Giuliani camp color coded electoral maps. While they are probably overly optimistic in Rudy’s favor, the campaign’s take on an electoral overview with regard to Giuliani/Thompson/Romney vs. Hillary might make for a good front page post by Kavon or some analysis from Dave G.
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:45 pm
Scott,
I saw it. It’s a theory, but it’s been panned over at the NRO corner.
October 2nd, 2007 at 4:00 pm
Tommy,
Yeah, NRO cites Monday Morning Clacker’s unfavorable take. Like I said, even if overly optimistic on the Giuliani team’s part, it could make for some good conversation/analysis on the three candidates vs. Hillary with regard to the electoral map.
October 2nd, 2007 at 4:04 pm
I love MMC. That’s one of the blogs that I refresh multiple times a day hoping for an update.
They’re your 2008 “Snark” leader
.
October 2nd, 2007 at 4:05 pm
Good point. The only problem is that none of us (posters) agree on who is favored where.
October 2nd, 2007 at 6:08 pm
Umm, I’m not sure what there is to be excited about here. I mean, Rudy, true – he is doing better than all other candidates, barely reach 1/3 of the conservatives and religious right. I won’t say that it is a good thing. But then, thes polls have the voters distributed across 9 or 10 candidates. I am curious, if those same people were asked to pick between just two candidates, say Rudy and Fred, Rudy and McCain or Rudy and Romney, would we be seeing the 50% plus 1 going toward Rudy?
October 2nd, 2007 at 6:11 pm
Well, I was not clear in my previous comment. What I was wondering is how much of a threat the Religious Right leaders of going 3rd party will have on Rudy.
October 2nd, 2007 at 6:50 pm
You know, Rudy could make things very easy for himself if he would:
1) Promise to sign all pro-life legislation and veto all pro-abortion legistlation
and
2) Announce that he will allow a select group of Conservative, pro-life Republican Senators to select judical short-lists.
October 3rd, 2007 at 12:03 am
Instead of threatening to go with a third party if Rudy is the nominee, I’d much rather the social conservatives try to unite behind someone they like to win the Republican nomination.
If the Republican Party nominates a pro-life presidential nominee, and that nominee is also willing to take a tough stand against Islamic terrorists, I’m sure most current Rudy supporters would vote for that pro-life Republican nominee, rather than staying home or voting for Hillary. I don’t see a lot of Rudy supporters threatening to abandon the party rather than vote for Mitt or Fred or McCain or Huckabee. Threatening to abandon the party is detrimental all around.