The Candidates
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- Mitt Romney 24%
- Rudy Giuliani 16%
- Mike Huckabee 13%
- Fred Thompson 13%
- John McCain 10%
- Sam Brownback 5%
- Ron Paul 4%
- Duncan Hunter 2%
- No Opinion 13%
Survey of 1,339 likely Republican caucus voters was conducted October 2-3. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.
October 4th, 2007 at 7:11 pm
wow – look how close it is with Rudy, Fred, and Huckabee.
October 4th, 2007 at 7:20 pm
[...] post by Aron Goldman and software by Elliott [...]
October 4th, 2007 at 7:21 pm
If you don’t get 15% then you don’t get delegates.
October 4th, 2007 at 7:34 pm
Do the Republican do the two round of voting like on the Dems side, where everyone who does not get more the 15% is out in that site and thoses people get to vote again.
October 4th, 2007 at 7:51 pm
So Romney is:
+8% in Iowa
+8% in New Hampshire
-3% in Michigan (within MoE)
-5% in South Carolina
Still trailing in Florida, but overall, not bad at all. Michigan should be fairly easy to pick up, South Carolina is certainly not a write-off.
October 4th, 2007 at 7:58 pm
how do caucus’s work? Can someone please explain?
October 4th, 2007 at 8:05 pm
Michigan might not be too easy to pick up. He is only up 3% over the next candidate -
October 4th, 2007 at 8:11 pm
“Michigan might not be too easy to pick up. He is only up 3% over the next candidate”
He is 3% behind Rudy – and Michigan falls closer to the end of the early season – if Romney wins all of the states before MI, I think he wins it easily.
October 4th, 2007 at 8:18 pm
Solid from Romney, interesting from Huckabee. If he can pick up a 3rd here, and then build on his 8% in NH (which a 3rd place in Iowa would certainly do) he could become a factor later states.
October 4th, 2007 at 8:28 pm
I don’t think Huckabee has much of a chance in NH. From what I have seen, New Hampshire voters are heavy on economic Conservatism and experience, and less intersted in Social Matters. While Huckabee is not bad on economic matters, I don’t think he can top Romney and Giuliani
October 4th, 2007 at 8:37 pm
Anyone see the article about Romney/Giuliani’s dispute over tax and spending records?
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/04/politics/main3332564.shtml
October 4th, 2007 at 8:51 pm
Act,
“I don’t think Huckabee has much of a chance in NH. From what I have seen, New Hampshire voters are heavy on economic Conservatism and experience, and less intersted in Social Matters.”
There is some truth to that, but Huckabee is the only top tier candidate who supports the FAIR tax, which ought to play well in New Hampshire, and if he comes out of Iowa as THE SoCon guy (if he can beat Thompson) that has to be good for a solid 3rd at least.
Remember, Pat Buchanan WON this state in 1996 over the likes of Bob Dole (experience) and Steve Forbes (Mr. Economic Conservative).
October 4th, 2007 at 8:53 pm
BTW, Brownback at 5%?
Wow. I had given him up for dead.
October 4th, 2007 at 10:29 pm
Anyone see that Brownback is a 17% 2nd place amoung 18-29 year old voters.
Brownback has campaigned for that vote pretty hard, and it is now showing. That could be a good sign for him.
October 5th, 2007 at 1:03 am
Huckabee has a ton of supporters in NH, and he has been endorsed by a bunch of prominent people there.