The Candidates
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- Mitt Romney 28%
- Rudy Giuliani 20%
- John McCain 17%
- Mike Huckabee 8%
- Fred Thompson 8%
- Ron Paul 6%
- Sam Brownback 2%
- Duncan Hunter 1%
- No Opinion 10%
Survey of 1,082 likely Republican primary voters was conducted October 2-3. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.
October 4th, 2007 at 7:43 pm
So maybe Hiuliani isn’t closing the gap so much after all.
October 4th, 2007 at 7:43 pm
so maybe Giuliani isn’t closing the gap so much after all.
October 4th, 2007 at 7:47 pm
Looks like the momentum is back, of course the MSM will find some way to put a negative spin on it.
October 4th, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Is this one of those polls, like Rasmussen, that gives people the choices Giuliani, Romney, McCain, Thompson, Huckabee, and “other,” and only after you say “other” do they let you know Ron Paul is an option?
Gallup does it too. It is extremely unfair in my opinion. Just list the damn candidates and let people choose, none of these mind games.
October 4th, 2007 at 8:06 pm
[...] post by Aron Goldman and software by Elliott [...]
October 4th, 2007 at 8:09 pm
“Is this one of those polls, like Rasmussen, that gives people the choices Giuliani, Romney, McCain, Thompson, Huckabee, and “other,†and only after you say “other†do they let you know Ron Paul is an option?
Gallup does it too. It is extremely unfair in my opinion. Just list the damn candidates and let people choose, none of these mind games.”
Judging by the fact that Ron Paul is actually listed in the results, I would guess they give all the options.
October 4th, 2007 at 8:11 pm
Nice number for Ron Paul. He’s still a complete no-shot, but he’s done more than Hunter. And Tancredo. And Gilmore.
FDT has a slight credibility problem in NH. He really needs to keep hitting the stump to get those numbers up. They value face time. Its hard to see FDT getting 4th in NH and then going on to win the nomination. He needs to get up to at least 3rd, which is difficult when Romney & McCain have really solid numbers, and Rudy is investing a lot of time in the state.
October 4th, 2007 at 8:12 pm
Looking at the crosstabs, these numbers are strange. Are there really more Republican women than men in New Hampshire that are mainstream and very conservative?
October 4th, 2007 at 8:44 pm
Two predictions….
Huckabee shocks Thompson in New Hampshire and effectively kills his candidacy.
Paul pulls much higher than 6% in this live-free-or-die state (with $5 mil in cash to help).
October 4th, 2007 at 8:54 pm
“Paul pulls much higher than 6% in this live-free-or-die state (with $5 mil in cash to help).”
That won’t happen if New Hampshire voters are military conservatives.
October 4th, 2007 at 8:58 pm
Actually ACT, I think I like “Hiuliani” better..
October 4th, 2007 at 9:16 pm
ACT,
“That won’t happen if New Hampshire voters are military conservatives.”
It doesn’t have to be all of them. Even 15% from Paul would be a helluva showing wouldn’t it? I could maybe see him getting as high as 15%.
October 4th, 2007 at 9:20 pm
hm.. I tried to cancel that first post – all too late apparently.
MWS – I doubt 15% of New Hampshire voters are going to go for the anti-military candidate. Most people like that will be voting in the DEMOCRATIC Priamry.
October 4th, 2007 at 9:26 pm
ACT,
I forget the % but I think more than 15% of Republicans are against the war. Maybe not as stridently as Paul, but all the same……
Anyway, I noticed on Rasmussen that Mr. Our-Only-Hope-Against-Hillary Guiliani is only 3 points better than Huckabee against Clinton in a head to head matchup.
So much for that theory.
It looks like we can have our principles AND our electability too!!!
October 4th, 2007 at 9:44 pm
So that NH polls showing Rudy within one point of Mitt is an outlier? Well, perhaps not, as there were three recent polls showing Mitt leads over Rudy by 3 or 4 points. Umm… Pollster shows Mitt at 27.1% and Rudy at 21.8. RCP has them at 25.2 and 21.4, respectfully. I would say this one with 8 points lead is a bit an outlier until a couple more polls verify the similar lead for Mitt.
October 4th, 2007 at 11:44 pm
Wow, look at those crosstabs. RP got 22% of the blacks.
October 5th, 2007 at 8:25 am
Answering a question on this thread, every candidate’s name is listed alphabetically, and only after they’re all named do we ask for a response.
Tom Baxter
Editor, Southern Political Report
(a publication of InsiderAdvantage.)
October 5th, 2007 at 8:32 am
Oh my goodness!!! Giulani’s is obviously losing his momentum!!!!! Oh my goodness!!! So incredible. Romney is going win for sure now!!!!!
Just kidding. sometimes i feel like that is how everbody reacts to these polls.
and by the way, how the heck is ron paul getting a big chunk of the black vote. word on the street is that he is somewhat of a racist.