- Mitt Romney 29%
- Fred Thompson 18%
- Mike Huckabee 12%
- Rudy Giuliani 11%
- John McCain 7%
- Tom Tancredo 5%
- Ron Paul 4%
- Sam Brownback 2%
- Alan Keyes 2%
- Duncan Hunter 1%
- Not sure/Uncommitted 9%
Survey of 405 likely Republican caucus participants was conducted October 1-3. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.
October 7th, 2007 at 1:35 am
[...] post by Aron Goldman and software by Elliott [...]
October 7th, 2007 at 1:46 am
I know Huckabee is sorta the top of the second tier and McCain the tippy top of the second tier / bottom edge of the first tier, but it seems
weird that H-man’s polling better than both McCain and Giuliani.
October 7th, 2007 at 1:53 am
So much for Rudy challenging in Iowa!
Mitt wins Iowa he wins NH and good luck stopping Mittmentum after that!
October 7th, 2007 at 2:50 am
[...] (Hat tip: Aron Goldman, race42008.com) [...]
October 7th, 2007 at 3:35 am
Huckabee over Rudy in IA? Interesting…
October 7th, 2007 at 4:47 am
The old Hope, Arkansas connection might prove a worthy comparison as Huckabee is making a move. I guess its too early to discern any benefit from the Rudy-Romney pillow fight.
October 7th, 2007 at 5:49 am
Not when the poll closed the day before it started, no.
For what it’s worth, it probably hurts Romney a bit in Iowa, but helps him in the rest of the country simply as a function of putting his name in the papers as Giuliani’s chief rival.
October 7th, 2007 at 6:11 am
Oh Gee, Alan Keyes running at 2% watch out here he comes! NOT..
October 7th, 2007 at 6:46 am
Des Moines Register does excellent polling, so we can likely trust this. It’s interesting that Fred is so competitive here. That could be meaningful if, for instance, McCain essentially skips Iowa (or skips it in fact). Is it possible Fred would gain in such a circumstance? Rudy would likely gain the most, but if he’s truly 16 points behind Mitt, it wouldn’t be enough to make him competitive.
October 7th, 2007 at 7:44 am
Huck can’t benefit from the Rudy-Romney fight; he raised taxes in Arkansas.
October 7th, 2007 at 8:06 am
He or McCain can benefit by simply being above the fray, as when Dean and Gephardt took each other out.
I still don’t know the rationale for Rudy, Romney or FDT’s campaigns. McCain is all about the war to me, Tancredo has immigration, Paul has the war and libertarian issues, and Huckabee is kinda the “let’s bring the GOP back to the middle” guy. I am not looking for a campaign slogan, but rather a simple statement of what each seeks to do.
October 7th, 2007 at 8:37 am
another suprising south carolina poll with romney up
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28506/romney_hillary_surge_in_south_carolina
October 7th, 2007 at 8:53 am
John Galt,
That’s the same poll that was already discussed, not a different one (It’s the ARG Poll). Angus Reid does not conduct polls, and are usually a week late when writing about them.
October 7th, 2007 at 9:15 am
I don’t know why a Rudy – Romney fight would hurt Romney in Iowa.
October 7th, 2007 at 10:20 am
Even though the ARG poll was already discussed, etc. The link was interesting because it shows several months worth of data. How reliable the data is, is of course a debate question.
But that data shows a clear trend of Thompson falling like a rock and Romney surging. The reason it is especially pertinent is that South Carolina is Thompson’s only hope. Even his campaign admits that if they don’t get South Carolina, they’re in big trouble.
If I were a Thompson fan, which Tommy is, I would be watching the most reliable South Carolina data I could get my hands on. We haven’t had a debate in a while, and next week’s debate will define winner and loser trends more than before (I hope, I’m ready for the winners to emerge and to study them more closely). We’ve all been in limbo, rocked to and fro with every contradicting poll and analysis that gets thrown out there. What I can’t wait for is the real fight: Republican vs. Democrat. It’s going to take everything we all have.
October 7th, 2007 at 10:27 am
Shawnie,
It shows the trends conducted by ARG polling, not Rasmussen or Mason-Dixon polling. I do follow the data, but am skeptical of ARG’s polls, regardless of their results.
October 7th, 2007 at 10:35 am
I’ve looked at Rasmussen but it appears they don’t do state by state polls for the Republican primary? Right now where can you get the most reliable data state by state? Does Mason-Dixon do state polls for the primary?
The national polls are interesting, but not how the primaries are won.
October 7th, 2007 at 11:05 am
Is there an official debate schedule? I want to know how many debates between now and Iowa voting.
As for Tuesday’s economics debate, here is a list of issues that should be discussed.
1. Budget, including taxes, spending, and deficits. Truth is, we know everyone is going to claim to be for low taxes, but only Ron Paul has an unblemished record. So I call it a wash.
2. Trade. A poll last week found that a majority of republicans believes free trade is not working for americans. In light of all the garbarge China has been sending our way, this may be the biggest issue.
3. Healthcare. I think this deserves a separate category because healthcare expenditures are exceeding inflation and is a drag on economic growth. The question I think should be: Why shouldn’t America have universal healthcare?
4. Mortgage mess. What role, if any, does the government have in trying to fix it?
October 7th, 2007 at 11:05 am
bjalder26 “Huck can’t benefit from the Rudy-Romney fight; he raised taxes in Arkansas.”
Look up the record on why certain taxes were raised, i.e. roads, healthcare, education. Huckabee also cut taxes over 90 times, plus he is for the Fair Tax.
The only candidates that benefit from the Rudy/Romney fight are the other candidates. It should make for an interesting debate this week.
October 7th, 2007 at 11:31 am
South Carolina Rasmussen poll- Released the same day as ARG
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_south_carolina_republican_primary
Also,
If you use Realclearpolitics, you will see how scattered the SC polls have been. The ARG was so out of the ordinary that it threw their averages way off:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_primary-233.html#polls
October 7th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
It looks like the anti-Romney ad has taken effect in Iowa. I have the suspicion that Romney himself paid for it.
October 7th, 2007 at 2:37 pm
Historically, when it comes to Iowa polling, Des Moines Register polls are the gold standard. Mitt’s double-digit lead in Iowa is one of the keys to the election. Everything else plays off of it. It’s the lead domino in the early state chain of dominos. It will turn a small lead for Mitt in NH into a clear-cut lead, and these two results will influence Nevada. By contrast, a 4th place finish for Rudy in the state will really hurt him in NH, which will hurt him elsewhere in turn. Order has been restored to the galaxy.
October 7th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
Anyone here thinking there may be some surprises up the sleeve? For instance, traditionally, the candidate won’t announce his ticket until after his ticket is secured. I think at least one candidate will do it before the first primary – sort of like collobration, like other countries with their multi-parties system. The parties would get together and work to get a man they feel most appropriate to represent all of their platform. I know we do not have multi-party system, but we certainly do have multiple groups and subgroups with in the party.
October 7th, 2007 at 4:05 pm
whoops my bad. thanks tommy.
October 7th, 2007 at 5:38 pm
SGS,
I suggested a candidate might announce a ticket before NH (I think everyone believes they have a shot before IA so they want to wait), but the problem would be that anyone who might be a true VP contender would not want to hurt his chances. I also think both party nominees will eschew those actually running for president as a running mate. Except perhaps Huckabee, who fits the VP profile.
October 7th, 2007 at 6:35 pm
This is perfect, it keeps Romney focusing on Iowa while NH goes into Rudy’s column.