GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Mystery solved. From Yahoo News:
Republican presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani will pick up the endorsement Friday of former GOP rival Tommy Thompson, a one-time Midwestern state governor.
“Rudy Giuliani has shown that he is a true leader. He can and will win the nomination and the presidency. He is America’s mayor, and during a period of time of great stress for this country he showed tremendous leadership,” Thompson, the former Wisconsin governor, said in a statement obtained by the Associated Press.
…
Unclear is the impact of Thompson’s support for Giuliani. On one hand, Giuliani could use the endorsement to try to mollify skeptical Iowans and other Midwesterners who are concerned about his moderate-to-liberal stances on social issues, pointing out that a prominent Republican from their backyards is supporting him.
On the other hand, Thompson left the race because voters weren’t gravitating toward him and he doesn’t bring with him much support in early voting Iowa and elsewhere. He languished in single digits in polls there, and barely registered in national surveys while in the race.
October 12th, 2007 at 10:23 am
Thats is?!?!
I though he endorsed him like a month ago?
October 12th, 2007 at 10:29 am
[...] post by Matt C and software by Elliott [...]
October 12th, 2007 at 10:31 am
Snooze….I’m not sure this changes anything at all.
October 12th, 2007 at 10:37 am
Nathan, are you kidding? Rudy’s polling numbers jump overnight by 0.231%…. this is breaking news indeed!
October 12th, 2007 at 10:43 am
Just a question unrelated to the topic; but Rudy’s RCP average is above 10 points. How big must his lead be to enter the “inevitable” category? I know that some will say Dean was ahead by points galore in ‘04, but poll leads are still important. Clinton’s around 20-30 points ahead and many say she’s got it wrapped up. How big will Rudy’s lead need to be until they begin saying things like that about him?
October 12th, 2007 at 10:46 am
BREAKING NEWS: Awakened Endorses Giuliani; Makes Primary a Mere Formality
October 12th, 2007 at 10:46 am
Who cares about Tommy T. Huckabee’s ahead of Rudy in Iowa!
http://www.newyorkforhuckabee.blogspot.com
October 12th, 2007 at 10:54 am
*yawn*
This falls under the category of any endorsement is better than no endorsement at all … but barely.
October 12th, 2007 at 10:59 am
The only place this matters much is Wisconsin. And with their primary on 2/19 there’s a good chance the nominee will be clear before they vote.
October 12th, 2007 at 10:59 am
Ben #5 - I think that all depends on where Rudy is at when the Iowa Caucuses and NH primary takes place. If he is not a good 10 pts ahead in polls in the super Tuesday states at that time, the winner of IA and NH could carry that momentum to beat Rudy. As a rudy supporter, I hope that does not happen.
October 12th, 2007 at 11:00 am
I would like to see a Wisconsin poll after this gets out
October 12th, 2007 at 11:02 am
Ben asks, re: Rudy How big must his lead be to enter the “inevitable� category?
Well, speaking as a poor, unthinking Mittbot, I’d say that until Romney’s strategy is proven to be a bad one, no Rudy lead will be considered inevitable. At this point, that’s far from proven. In fact (of course, I am a Mittbot after all), I’d say it’s right on schedule.
October 12th, 2007 at 11:07 am
What date is Wisconsin on the calendar? It’s after SuperTuesday. That’s why this is a non-event. Otherwise, it would be significant.
October 12th, 2007 at 11:10 am
The significance of this announcement reminds me of a favorite late night joke of years ago. Maybe Leno, maybe Carson. Anyways, at the time CBS was in the dumps…a distant 3rd in the ratings. The joke offered the network’s proposed slogans for the upcoming fall tv season. My favorite: ‘CBS: 25,000 viewers can’t be wrong’
October 12th, 2007 at 11:13 am
Ben,
Rudy is not remotely close to inevitable. He’s actually behind. According to the most recent poll, he’s in 4th place in Iowa. According to the most recent poll, Mitt is ahead of him by 8 points in NH. Michigan and Nevada seem to be competitive, but early wins by Mitt in Iowa and NH will change that, which in turn will change what happens after that. You’re mindset needs to be dynamic and not static if you want any handle on reality in this race. There is no way that Mitt would trade places with Rudy at this juncture in the campaign.
October 12th, 2007 at 11:14 am
The bandwagon is rolling. Get on board.
October 12th, 2007 at 11:19 am
I’d like to make a decision between Mitt and Rudy but I’ll have to talk to my lawyers first.
October 12th, 2007 at 11:21 am
Ben,
One more point: Hillary is inevitable because she’s ahead by a mile in NH, and competitive in Iowa. None of her competitors have any real opportunities to generate early momentum. On our side, the opposite is the case: not only does Mitt have the opportunity to generate significant early momentum, but he’s engineered a sequence of events that make it close to inevitable. If he does, he will win the nomination. So, national polls are significant on the Democrat side, but on ours, they’re not only insignificant, they camouflage reality.
October 12th, 2007 at 11:22 am
Just out of curiosity, how come Mitt, McCain, or Fred are not speaking with Gordon Brown, NATO, the prez of Israel, etc.?
October 12th, 2007 at 11:24 am
Mitt will save us–every poll is wrong. Mitt will save us.
October 12th, 2007 at 11:31 am
To people who responded to me (Thank you, by the way):
While Romney’s leads in Iowa are impressive, I feel that equally as impressive are Rudy’s leads in New York, California, New Jersey, Florida, and Pennsylvania (among others) which are looking more and more insurmountable with each new poll. These leads are as large, if not larger, than Romney’s in Iowa. Also, Romney’s lead is Iowa and New Hampshire are slowly dwindling, while Giuliani’s leads in those states seem to be improving, if not they are maintaining. Also, after following the news and speaking schedule, it seems that whenever Giuliani visits these areas his support in the polls rises while Mitt’s falls. While this may be nothing more than a Margin of Error, it seems too coincidental to be occurring. Thoughts? Responses?
October 12th, 2007 at 11:45 am
Ben,
You still don’t understand campaign dynamics. Republican strategist Mike Murphy has observed that national polls before Iowa are meaningless. Iowa won’t change your mind because you are following the campaign. Most people who will end up voting aren’t. They will start paying attention when results start coming in. When Mitt wins Iowa, his support in the other 49 states will increase because people will notice. It will increase marginally, and if Mitt were to lose in NH, it wouldn’t have any lasting impact, but Mitt is 8 points ahead in NH and has been ahead in every poll taken there since July (omit the ARG outlier and he’s been ahead there in every poll since May). Mitt wins NH, and his support in the other 48 states goes up. By that time, Nevada will probably go to Mitt as well (he’s ahead there in the RCP averages now), at which time Mitt’s support goes up in the other 47 states. After Michigan, it will go up a lot. Do you see how this works? If not, you will by the end of January.
October 12th, 2007 at 11:56 am
Dave,
I suggest you study the history of the 2000 primaries to see the limits of your theory.
McCain was down 3-7 against Bush in the first 10 contests. (2-6 not counting AZ.)
He then won 3 Northeastern states. Not just won them: won them by THIRTY POINT MARGINS. States that would not identify culturally with Bush.
How do you explain THAT on the momentum theory?
October 12th, 2007 at 12:05 pm
Because it’s better to theorize, Metro, than to look at actual results.
October 12th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/crime_file/2007/10/12/2007-10-12_prosecutors_expected_to_file_charges_aga-1.html
very bad news for rudy given these guys are like peas in a pod. it will only bring back to the headlines rudy’s mistake by nominating a shady guy to lead our homeland security department.
if these are the type of guys ruyd is going to nomiate to cabinet level positions, then do we really want him to be president, is how it will go.
October 12th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
Apparently our Presidents are not just to be competent, but also omniscient, “John Galt”?
October 12th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
John Galt, I’ll just Rudy by the results of his NYC administration. Which drawf the results of Mitt’s MA admin.
I like the fact that he gives a chance to non-nonsense achievers (Kerik had an amazing record) rather than stuffed suits. If one turns out to be a problem, you replace him. Meanwhile the similar appointments are getting stellar RESULTS!
Still hoping Dave comes back to address #22.
October 12th, 2007 at 1:36 pm
No candidate is inevitable given our 24 hour news cycle. Romney’s lawyer gaffe, Hillary’s criminal fundraiser, Edwards $400 haircut and hedge fund, and now Giuliani and Kerik are all little bumps that briefly knock them off their path. But wait until we get the big one and there are at least a couple rumors out there that could topple the candidate.
October 12th, 2007 at 2:18 pm
Metro,
There is no comparison between 2000 and 2008. None whatsoever. McCain established campaign viability early and had the de facto endorsement of the MSM while Bush had already locked down the base and had by far and away the strongest organization in most states. Bush might have actually lost the nomination had he lost in South Carolina, but he didn’t. This year, nobody has locked down the base, Romney has the strongest organizations in most states, the MSM favors Rudy, but like they favored McCain in 2000, and Mitt has an opening to win at least the first 5 states. In 2000, nobody did that, thanks to Bush salvaging a win in SC, but McCain generated enough early momentum to almost beat a far better organized and financed opponent. Your using this as an example of why I am wrong is merely validation that you don’t have a clue what I’m talking about.
October 12th, 2007 at 2:19 pm
Rudy-Tommy ‘08…
I like the sound of that!!!
October 12th, 2007 at 2:21 pm
Giuliani-Thompson ‘08…
I like the sound of that!!!
October 12th, 2007 at 2:47 pm
Romney - Blackburn ‘08
or
Romney - DeMint ‘08
I like the sound of both of those.
October 12th, 2007 at 2:55 pm
Rudy-Tommy is a ticket that even I hadn’t thought about previously, but I like it a lot.
Anybody-Palin ‘08 would better, but I could definitely live with Tommy Thompson.
October 12th, 2007 at 3:03 pm
Metro,
2000 - McCain won in NH, the 2nd competition. That is how he kept momentum in place into the other states. Also, he was clearly the challenger going against a heavily favored frontrunner meaning he didn’t have to do as well to keep momentum. Oh yeah, the person who won the majority of early states won the nomination.
2008 - Rudy is behind in NH and unless things change will lose the first 4 states. At that point the race will be at most three candidates, if somehow Thompson can stay alive. Do you really think that Mitt can’t gain the 5-8 points that he trails in SC? Even if Thompson remains viable, there will be 40% of the electorate that will have to choose a new candidate. Without Thompson it’s more like 60% of the electorate.
Unless Rudy wins NH your comparision to 2000 is apples to oranges.
October 12th, 2007 at 3:47 pm
Dave & Dskinner, what my example shows is that momentum is overrated and cultural/geographical affinity trumps it.
McCain’s problem was he didn’t have enough of those states, early enough, and big enough. Rudy does.
Also, the MSM loving McCain doesn’t answer the issue. The MSM loves Rudy PLUS he’s been the polling frontrunner and the fundraising frontrunner for 2 quarters, and a national hero with stellar favorables, is expected to win, is considered most electable, wins a plurality of conservatives/Evangelicals, etc, etc, etc.
October 12th, 2007 at 3:50 pm
Dskinner,
As usual; spot on, bro. During the time frame of the first 4 contests, Rudy’s numbers and Fred’s numbers will shrink as Mitt’s rise. The best Rudy can hope for in Iowa is 3rd, and right now he is 4th. A 4th place finish in the first major contest will puncture any remaining aura of inevitability emanating from the Giuliani campaign. The way things are shaping up, it’s entirely possible that Mitt will win all of the January states. Any early loss will change this outcome. If Mitt only wins 2 of the first 4, we lose the nomination. The reason I really think Mitt will run the table in January is that after New Year’s Day, Mitt can write a check for $30 million or so, and won’t have to report it until late February, when the nomination will be won. The amount of the check will depend on what’s necessary at that point to win.
October 12th, 2007 at 3:59 pm
Metro,
See #35. BTW, what early states does Rudy have? If he can pull off a win in NH, Nevada, or Michigan, he’s probably in ok shape. If he can win 2 of those, the nomination is probably his. If he can’t win any of the 3, Romney is the nominee.
October 12th, 2007 at 4:19 pm
Dave, I believe Rudy only needs to win one of NH, MI, NV, SC or IA, to keep FL with him. That keeps CA and IL with him. NY, NJ, CT, DE stay with him on Feb 5 no matter what. At that point, he is undefeatable.
Just 1 out of 5 of the early contests. He’s got a very nice shot at 4 of them. And Huck could take away enough votes from Mitt for Rudy to have a shot at IA, too.
Finally, there’s a good chance FL sticks with Rudy even if he loses everything before it. Cross-ref McCain’s 30-point wins after the first 10 contests 8 years ago. And then he still gets CA and IL.
October 12th, 2007 at 4:24 pm
Yes, Mitt can write a big check. But if he’s spending millions on TV, those costs can be easily calculated and that will be all over the news.
Apart from those funds, Team Mitt used all their ammo to gain the early state leads (peaking too early). Rudy’s withheld much of his ammo regarding not only his money, but his endorsements, positions and arguments, ads, etc. The voters still haven’t seen Rudy at his best, like his 2004 convention speech.
All of that, only needing to win one small early state to seal the deal. Odds are pretty darned good one of them will go his way.
October 12th, 2007 at 4:26 pm
Dave: ‘As usual; spot on, bro.’
…
October 12th, 2007 at 8:06 pm
MI:
NH:
NV:
As you can see, Giuliani’s placing well in MI and NH… Giuliani has been closing in NH over the past month… Not much can be said for NV right now, but if you average the last three polls, Giulianiis in a dead heat with Romney… Iowa is the only state where Romney has the race lock, stock and barrel, so he needs to win BIG in order to live up to expectations…
I’d say the race is narrowing in the early states with the exception of Iowa… We’ve still got three months to go!
October 12th, 2007 at 8:07 pm
Hmmm… my links didn’t show up! Oh well, go to realpolitics.com and see for yourselves… >:(