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AP source:
Nevada- Mason-Dixon GOP Nomination Poll
Rudy Giuliani 28% Fred Thompson 23% Mitt Romney 17% John McCain 9%
The survey of 300 Republican and 300 Democratic voters was conducted Oct. 9-11 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.
October 14th, 2007 at 3:49 pm
[...] post by Tommy Oliver and software by Elliott [...]
October 14th, 2007 at 4:37 pm
Mason-Dixon is the most accurate state-by-state pollster.
October 14th, 2007 at 5:58 pm
Huh? 6 MOE, that’s accurate?
October 14th, 2007 at 6:04 pm
This poll is totally out of synch with other Nevada polls. On the other hand, it’s the first Nevada poll to come out in awhile. Romney just hired two more full-time organizers in Nevada, and has started to visit the state more often. Given that this is the last contest going into Michigan, the outcome is important. There’s no hint of a screening mechanism for likely voters given by Tommy, so if there wasn’t one, it could help explain the result.
October 14th, 2007 at 6:29 pm
Yes, Mason-Dixon is one of the most accurate state by state polling firms, if one is going by history. Dave, it’s a little out of sync possibly because it contrasts with ARG, the other firm to release Nevada results. The reason I don’t have a screening process linked is because I was using the link from the AP, and Republican voters is all they gave in the story.
October 14th, 2007 at 6:56 pm
NV has alot of transplanted New Yorker’s. I have two cousins that live in LV who are planning to vote for Rudy.
October 14th, 2007 at 7:21 pm
FDT has bounced, yes? I seem to recall the last poll had Mitt & Rudy slugging it out. Looks like its a 3 horse race in NV – although wheres the other 23% going? Is it undecided, or is Huckabee close to McCain in 4th place?
McCain should be top dog in the West. The fact he’s not suggests he’s been in Washington too long.
October 14th, 2007 at 7:23 pm
I see Richardson gets 8% in NV on the Dem side, with Edwards on 9%. Clinton on 39% is well in front.
October 14th, 2007 at 7:36 pm
NV has lots of California transplants, too.
October 14th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
This is a caucus state so I am really skeptical any pollster can get a good read on the state of the race. Who knows how many new people will turn out for the caucuses now that they matter much more. My guess is that Romney wins. He has the endorsement of the most popular politician in the state and he is working much harder on getting organized to get people out to the caucuses.
October 14th, 2007 at 7:56 pm
Also all the republicans beat Hillary by a good margian in polling head to head. It looks like that Hillary surging nationally is coming from the boader south and places like OK as it seems AZ, Col, and NV right now is pretty soild red.
October 14th, 2007 at 7:59 pm
Also, good to see that NV won’t be going Blue with Hillary in the general. Guliani beats her by 7% while Fred and Mitt beat her by 6%. That is VERY good news!
October 14th, 2007 at 8:01 pm
AZ and CO are not even close to “solidly red”. Both states are trending blue lately, though I would guess both states stay red unless Richardson is the VP, then Hispanic turnout would probably turn them blue.
October 14th, 2007 at 8:03 pm
Agree with Dskinner (#10 above) about how it’s harder to predict “likely caucus goers” than what the pollsters are used to (and what Nevadans are used to . . . i.e. they probably have no idea how involved and time consuming it can be if it’s anything like Iowa). Conventional wisdom says that’s and advantage for Mitt . . . but we’ll see how it plays out.
October 14th, 2007 at 9:07 pm
Anyone know when Michigan polls will be out? I am curious if Mitt’s knowledge about local affairs in the debate gained him a few points.
October 14th, 2007 at 9:14 pm
Tommy, the ARG is not too far off with Rudy and McCain, 31% vs 28% and 11% vs 9%. But yeah, with ARG, Mitt was 30% and Fred at 9%. There is too many voters for Fred to draw away in so short a time. I mean, Mitt did not have any major misstep to drive them away. One of them may have a glitch with these two candidates, and it may be ARG that is off. Wow, it looks like we have a 3 way contest state, in additional to NH and SC.
October 14th, 2007 at 10:04 pm
Most important point here, agreeing with Jeff Fuller above, is that everyone beats Hillary. If we socialize medicine in the US, where will the Canadians go for treatment?
October 15th, 2007 at 8:26 am
Can we possibly stop calling it socialized medicine. Its not. It would represent a greater role for government, but so was the medicare perscription drug boondoggle.
October 15th, 2007 at 9:51 am
Vegas is for Rudy, no doubt about it. This Nevada poll is also good news for Rudy because 1) Romney was ahead previously 2) McCain should be the favorite son candidate, with AZ being the neighbor state 3) It is yet another example of how Rudy’s support is really beginning to meld around the country.