GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Back by popular demand… we have updated our Mitt Romney interactive New Hampshire map. There was some jive talk last week that Thompson could easily catch up to Romney’s organization in New Hampshire. I tend to disagree. I think you will too.
Click on any of the icons, zoom in, or view the larger map.
October 15th, 2007 at 6:54 am
Gee, with all of this great organization by the Romney team in NH you have to wonder why he isn’t doing better than a mid-single digit lead in the state…
October 15th, 2007 at 7:04 am
I think that is really neat. Obviously, the campaigns today are very sophisticated, but it only makes me wonder why I haven’t heard the candidates in either party talking much about how technology can revolutionize our country. All of them are talking about electronic medical records and bio-metric cards for immigrants, but what about for our schools and to assist in crime solving. I am really surprised that Obama, because of his relative youth, hasn’t seized this issue.
October 15th, 2007 at 7:07 am
I think we’ll see the lead change up and down. Remember, it would absolutely unprecedented and historic if Romney won both Iowa and New Hampshire. I think the details of the latest poll taken in NH show some real staying power for Romney though:
“Romney ran strongest among likely Republican primary voters who were most concerned about terrorism. He had the support of 29 percent of those voters compared with 21 percent for Giuliani, who, according to conventional wisdom, most appealed to those voters because of his leadership during the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attack on New York’s World Trade Center.”
October 15th, 2007 at 7:10 am
Justin,
It was in Iowa where the speculation of Thompson catching up, organization wise, was, not New Hampshire.
October 15th, 2007 at 7:16 am
I stand corrected. Iowa map will be updated later this week
October 15th, 2007 at 8:01 am
Yeah…How come Mitt’s in a virtual tie in the Granite State?
http://political-buzz.com/
October 15th, 2007 at 8:12 am
matthew/adam - these quick drive-by posts are a bit silly. If you have an opinion as to WHY Mitt’s lead has narrowed in NH I’d love to hear it.
You’re welcome to throw in the quick “firecracker” snippets but why not add to the discussion? If you want a fight, come out and say: “I wanna fight. I think Mitt’s tanking in NH because…” Otherwise, its just a sad attempt at a gotcha moment.
One of the reasons the race in NH has been tightening is that Rudy is actually campaigning there. He’s buying media ads and giving Mitt a run for his money.
You could also ask why isn’t Thompson doing better in NH? Answer: he’s not there:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20071014-1328-wheresfred.html
October 15th, 2007 at 8:16 am
“If you have an opinion as to WHY Mitt’s lead has narrowed in NH I’d love to hear it. ”
Sure. It’s because Mitt is no longer going unchallenged in the state. Giuliani is now just starting with radio and direct mail. The point is that for the resources Romney has invested in the state, compared with the relative lack of resources put forth by the other candidates, Romney should be cleaning up. Romney should especially be cleaning up in NH considering it borders Mass. That Romney’s lead is so small in a state where his competition hasn’t even brought in his A-game says to me that his lead is shaky at best.
October 15th, 2007 at 8:18 am
There… much better
October 15th, 2007 at 8:30 am
As for Thompson, I don’t think he has much of a shot in NH anyway. He’s too “Bushy” and too southern. It may not be fair but I think every state north of the Mason-Dixon line is having Southern Fatigue. Still though, it would be fine for him to use that excuse and not campaign or attempt to gain traction there if he didn’t wait to jump in and play Mr. Playboy Tease. Having waited so long to get in and now not even try to play in NH just adds to the perception that he isn’t serious about this at all.
October 15th, 2007 at 8:34 am
Off Topic, but Larry Craig (R-Bathroom) is mad at Romney, a lot.
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2007/10/15/craig_romney_threw_me_under_bus/4821/
October 15th, 2007 at 8:43 am
Romney Video:
What struck me was that it wasn’t just the social issues, abortion and gay
marriage, on which Romney took a moderate to liberal line. More
disconcerting was his effort to distance himself from the Reagan
administration. http://tinyurl.com/32nvmx
October 15th, 2007 at 8:48 am
I would think Thompson forming a ground campaign in Iowa that could match Romney’s is even more laughable than him doing so in New Hampshire.
Thompson abiliy to run things is not his greates quality, as evidenced by his regular hiring and firing. Romney is, above all else, an organization man. Thompson may go up a bit in popular vote, but on voting day he just doesn’t have the skill to match Romney.
October 15th, 2007 at 9:37 am
Drive by posting…lol….good one. Here is another: Rudy will win NH. He has hardly campaigned there yet he trails Romney now by only a few points in the polls. I think he will win because around the country, republicans are beginning to really, really settle on Rudy.
October 15th, 2007 at 9:48 am
Joe M, you are missing something here… you said Rudy hardly campaign there in NH. Where have you been? He has been campaigning there heavily for quite a time. I think you mean advertising. True, he has not advertising as heavily as Romney, but he certainly has been doing it for at least a couple of months. And besides, you can benefit from advertising more, first, by raise your recognization, which Rudy does not need, as his is one of the most familiar faces, and second, to emphasize your platform, which Rudy already is well known for — his tough on crime and terrorism, and his fiscal positions. So, really, Rudy does not have much room to grow. It is true with McCain, since he has been very active in NH in 2000, and his platform essentially remains the same, with more emphasis on Iraq. NH population knows him well. It leaves us with the unknown candidates, like Fred and Huckabee. They do have the room to grow.
October 15th, 2007 at 9:51 am
Joe M, and “republicans are beginning to really, really settle on Rudy.” Huh? We are not seeing the same settling we are seeing with the Democratic Party. True, Rudy has surged ahead a few points the past week, but it is long way from being settled like it is for Hillary! And besides, Dean pretty much was settled at this point at the last election, only to see Kerry pushing him off the hill. So, really, nothing is for sure until after the primaries.
October 15th, 2007 at 9:54 am
SGS,
Romney is just as well known as Giuliani in NH. The Boston television market includes much of the state. Anyone who hasn’t seen Romney on TV for years isn’t going to vote anyway, for a Democrat or a Republican. Giuliani’s advertising in the state pales in comparison to what Romney has done and already the margin is now down to 4-points from what was a double-digit deficit for Rudy. Wait until he pours more resources into the state. To say that Rudy doesn’t have room to grow is totally underdetermined and little more than wishful thinking on your part.
October 15th, 2007 at 10:00 am
Joe M,
Rudy has campaigned in NH alot. If he can win NH, it will provide the early breakthrough he needs to squash Mitt’s strategy and hold on to his national lead. Where organization is critical is in getting out the vote. This is why Mitt’s strong organizational lead means that in reality his lead is more than a few points. Also, with the Marist poll following the ARG poll, there are indications that Mitt’s lead is widening even while Rudy is making a concerted run at the state. Adam agreed at one point to not bring up NH again until there was a poll out there somewhere, anywhere, showing a Rudy lead in the state. There isn’t, and it doesn’t look like there ever will be.
October 15th, 2007 at 10:05 am
Dave,
I didn’t bring up NH. Justin did. Marist poll had a 5.5 margin of error, so you can’t say that a single poll showing Romney +6 was any different than the RCP average of Romney +4. You’re smart. You know that. You’re just spinning. If Mitt’s organizational lead was so strong and so decisive then his lead wouldn’t have dwindled as much or as quickly.
October 15th, 2007 at 10:23 am
Is it true that Romney lost the Nevada Straw Poll to Ron Paul? That’s pretty pitiful. Is that going to get as much attention here as his winning Ames got?
October 15th, 2007 at 10:24 am
I’m not a Mittman, but for Larry “Tappy Toes” Craig to complain about his treatment from Romney is overblown. He and his lawyers will do all they can to chuck the arresting officer under the bus during the appeal, I’m sure. I’d be amazed if an august Senator living in denial is going to let some schmuck policeman trying to make an honest living scratch at Craig’s carefully crafted façade. And may the good Senator please prove me wrong about this…
October 15th, 2007 at 10:29 am
Cliff,
Were you too inept to notice that Ron Paul not only won Romney, but also won every other Republican candidate in that straw poll? Why single out Romney?
October 15th, 2007 at 10:31 am
Probably because Romney and his supporters have placed much more importance on paid straw polls than the rest of us…
October 15th, 2007 at 10:35 am
There does seem to be a ganging up on Romney lately by the other campaigns. Do they smell weakness or strength? This is one of the storylines in the media today, along with wondering why its Romney and not Giuliani getting attacked.
October 15th, 2007 at 10:36 am
Exactly Adam. I noticed that buying votes at these momentously meaningless straw polls was made a very big deal of. I read in quite a few places that voters the Romney camp bribed in Nevada took the food and travel and voted for Paul, LOL.
October 15th, 2007 at 10:45 am
Pablo,
I think it’s just an underlying frustration that’s been building for a while. Romney has shifted positions so much (other candidates have flopped too, but not nearly as often or on things they CHOOSE TO MAKE AN ISSUE OF in a campaign) and when he claimed to be “From the Republican Wing of the Republican Party” it was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
October 15th, 2007 at 10:49 am
#21 Mark G, Laura Ingraham said that if Larry Craig had known his Constitutional rights, he would have been able to tell the police that a senator cannot be arrested on his way back and forth from his job in Washington D.C.
Makes you wonder, huh?
Larry Craig got caught “with his pants down” and now he’s trying to throw the blame and attention on someone else.
Besides, it’s really STUPID to plead guilty to anything or not ask for your lawyer while keeping your mouth shut because you’re in a hurry.
Doesn’t sound like this guy is the brightest light bulb in the room.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:00 am
The obsession with all things Romney continues….You think he is doing a Jedi mind trick on his opponents to force them to talk endlessly about every aspect of his campaign. Sorry guys, obsessing about the Mittster is having the opposite desired effect. It is raising his name ID and is getting him a lot a press buzz which the other guys are not getting as much.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:02 am
Adam,
I think its more opportunism. McCain probably realized Romney damaged himself with his lawyers comment and a second attack on a weakened opponent is just good politics. But it may also be bad politics if McCain is giving Giuliani an opening. Its just dangerous to assume Giuliani will not play well in the South, which is what FDT and McCain and maybe Huckabee are planning on.
Bethtopaz,
Ingraham was wrong. A congressperson can’t be stopped while en route to actually vote under the speech and debate clause, but its hard to argue that he was conducting official business by loitering in an airport bathroom.
The whole Craig drama makes me wonder what Giuliani may be thinking. The senate investigation into Craig will probably not get going until maybe February 2008. I imagine there will be all kinds of media coverage and stories about gay men living as straight, getting married while cruising for anonymous sex with men. Oprah will certainly do a show.
And about this time, we will begin seeing ads of Giuliani in drag, at the gay pride parades in NYC, and maybe pictures of him with the gay couple he moved in with at one time. The question will be, is Giuliani closeted? Is that why he can’t stay married? Fair or not, its a line of questions no candidate wants.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:04 am
SGS and Dave,
All I was saying was that Rudy has not devoted nearly as much time as Romney in NH, and based on the fact that Romney is basing his entire strategy on IA and NH, he is in trouble looking at his dwindling numbers.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:05 am
“Sorry guys, obsessing about the Mittster is having the opposite desired effect. It is raising his name ID and is getting him a lot a press buzz which the other guys are not getting as much.”
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the higher name ID isn’t going to help his favorability ratings as much as the 10,000 commercials he ran. And it’s not obsessing about Romney when Romney purposely goes on the attack against Giuliani and Giuliani needs to respond. That’s not obsessing - it’s retaliatory. Finally, it’s not surprising that when Romney makes ridiculous claims like he is “from the Republican wing of the Republican party” that other candidates call him out on it.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:11 am
PabloZed: LMAO regarding your Rudy “closeted” comments. Are you criticizing him for attending the gay pride march in New York? He was mayor of ALL the people dude. Thats why he is a leader of inclusiveness. Some republicans may want to take some lessons from the examples Rudy set as mayor.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:13 am
Adam,
You’re right. Justin brought it up. But my point that Rudy has been behind in every NH poll since July, and every poll that wasn’t a shameless outlier since April or May, is unassailable. I mentioned the value that a superior organization has in terms s of getting out the vote, but neglected to mention how invaluable it is in staving off a concerted run by the opposition. Mitt’s strength in NH has been, and is being, tested by the best opponent in the race. So far, it’s holding up.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:20 am
Joe M,
What dwindling numbers? Mitt’s been ahead in NH for almost 6 months. He still is. And Mitt’s strategy is far more comprehensive than merely Iowa and New Hampshire, although I will concede that the rest of it plays off of those states. Rudy has spent more time in NH over the course of the last month than anybody. So far, he’s come up dry.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:22 am
Dave - - Rudy was much lower a month ago so you are stating a falsehood.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:22 am
Dave,
“Rudy has spent more time in NH over the course of the last month than anybody. So far, he’s come up dry.”
That’s just not accurate. You Romney guys constantly talk about momentum. If Rudy was still double digits down then you could say he’s “come up dry”. If the trend from last month continues into next month as Rudy continues his advertising, Romney is in big trouble.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:24 am
Dave - also, I never said that Romney was not still ahead - - another falsehood.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:24 am
Cliff,
If Romney was buying straw polls, he would have won the one in Nevada. Consider the audience. Libertarians packed the conference and turned out in force to vote in the straw poll. Mitt finished 2nd. Rudy was in single digits. Whose performance was more pathetic?
October 15th, 2007 at 11:25 am
Adam, it seems that Romney supporters tend to be a little, um, pushy maybe???
October 15th, 2007 at 11:27 am
Dave I think your attitude is whats pathetic. Anyone who disagrees with you, or doesn’t like Romney seems to just get your goat.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:29 am
Joe M,
I just think that some Romney supporters can never admit that things aren’t always going perfectly with their candidate.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:30 am
Dave,
“If Romney was buying straw polls, he would have won the one in Nevada”
Is that the only way Romney can win straw polls?
October 15th, 2007 at 11:30 am
Adam #41, True - - I mean, lets face it, Romney is THE perfect candidate.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:31 am
Adam,
We’ll see whether Rudy has any momentum in NH as new polls come out. I’ll concede your point if any of them actually has Rudy ahead in the state. So far, none have.
Joe M,
I’m not accusing you of anything, and certainly not mendacity. There ARE a few subtleties of the political situation in NH that seem to have eluded your grasp, however.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:36 am
Dave,
I have reviewed that comment and you are correct in that I incorrectly used the words “dwindling numbers” for Romney. What I meant, and should have said, was dwindling lead, as Rudy has surpassed the other candidates.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:37 am
Adam,
Re:#42: Romney’s won more straw polls than anybody, and hasn’t “bought” one yet. Of course, Rudy’s the past master of losing straw polls, so whatever Romney’s been doing to win so many might be a point of contention for Rudybots.
Joe M,
Re:#43: Forget what I said about your grasp of subtleties, or lack thereof, you finally got it right.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:39 am
Dave,
Gee Thanks!
Oh, and, Romney didn’t BUY Ames???????
Come on …………
October 15th, 2007 at 11:40 am
Everyone knows Romney bought Ames. It’s not even up for debate.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:40 am
Joe M,
Re:#45: I agree with you. Rudy’s running 2nd in NH. For what it’s worth, he’s always been number 2 with me as well. We need to provide America with a president who has successful executive experience. Next to Mitt, Rudy has more than anybody else.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:43 am
#49 Dave thanks I agree about Rudy. I also think that it is better to elect a president with proven results as a gutsy leader, like Rudy and not necessarily one with successful executive experience - - look what that got us with GWB!
October 15th, 2007 at 11:44 am
Ames shouldn’t be up for debate. Mitt won it on the basis of hard work, solid organization, and higher quality endorsements than anybody else had. He had a little help from Giuliani and McCain, whose internals convinced them that they were hopelesslyl outmatched and wisely dropped out rather than face cataclysmic humiliation.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:44 am
(obviously not a big GWB fan here, although I like his consistancy)
October 15th, 2007 at 11:45 am
“Ames shouldn’t be up for debate. Mitt won it on the basis of hard work, solid organization, and higher quality endorsements than anybody else had. ”
And he bused people in and paid $35 each for their votes. Hence “bought and paid for”
October 15th, 2007 at 11:48 am
Joe M,
If you knew anything about Mitt’s background you would know that he’s been a gutsier leader than anybody. He simply has better credentials to fix the mess in Washington than anybody in the modern history of American politics.
October 15th, 2007 at 11:53 am
Adam,
The $35 didn’t go into anybody’s pocket, it was the price of admission. In a real sense, that money didn’t even come from the Mitt campaign, since he raised more money in Iowa than he laid out in Ames. The other campaigns were paying the admission price as well, and some of them, such as Brownback, bussed in everybody they could get to go. Mitt scaled back his Ames operation considerably after your guy prematurely surrendered, so it wouldn’t look too bad for the remaining candidates.
October 15th, 2007 at 12:02 pm
Justin, Jason, someone - please post the press release/youtube of McCain on his hands and knees in front of NH’s Democratic Gov Lynch. WHAT A JOKE. McCain grovels over the man who has done away with parental notification, seen the state budget rise 16.1%, and is currently trying to raise tolls throughout the state. What a frigging joke McCain is for this. Does he really think this is how he’s going to win NH? I will say right now that I WILL NOT support McCain if he wins the nomination because of this. Lynch has been HORRIBLE for NH and if McCain likes him the McCain would be HORRIBLE for this country.
October 15th, 2007 at 12:46 pm
Dave, Mitt’s success did not translate well to the political realm. Rudy has had a career in the political realm, and in every job he took, he did what was thought impossible. He is the most effective politician in modern history. You just can’t ignore it or compete against it on that count.
October 15th, 2007 at 1:01 pm
Dave - as I understand it, Romney was one of only two who showed up to speak at the Nevada Straw Poll? That sounds to me like he gave it a lot more attention than the other guys did.
October 15th, 2007 at 1:04 pm
#54 Dave -
I am open to learning more about Mitt’s background, but it is up to him to convey “a message” to the American people. he has yet to do that. As I said before, if he is the eventual nominee, I will support him full steam ahead. Right now i am concerned with getting another candidate nominated.
October 15th, 2007 at 2:36 pm
Metro,
I have a very high regard for Rudy’s political career, as I’ve indicated on this thread, and on many others. I’m very familiar with what he’s accomplished. I’m also familiar with his dark side.
Cliff,
Romney is turning more attention to Nevada right now, and needs to. He was able to tie this conference in with a campaign trip there.
Joe M,
Read “A Mormon in the White House?” by Hugh Hewitt for background. Read Mitt’s 50-point program for America, which you can access on Race42008’s archives. It came out less than a month ago. Thanks for keeping an open mind.
October 15th, 2007 at 2:58 pm
I tried to read Mitt’s plan, but it just wasn’t specific enough for me. It’s full of aphorisms and bromides. Just as is the case with just about every other GOP candidate. And where he is more specific, such as on healthcare and taxes, nothing is scored (i.e., it doesn’t say how much it will cost). Again, this is true for Giuliani and McCain as well. I actually spent the morning reading up on Huckabee’s fair tax proposal, but its more of a pipedream than anything. But Huckabee admitted as much this morning on CNBC.
The reason none of them are putting out specific proposals with price tags is because they don’t want to get accused of spending or raising taxes. I wonder how long they can get away with empty promises.
October 15th, 2007 at 5:17 pm
#59 Joe M. “I am open to learning more about Mitt’s background, but it is up to him to convey “a message†to the American people. he has yet to do that. As I said before, if he is the eventual nominee, I will support him full steam ahead. Right now i am concerned with getting another candidate nominated.”
Mitt has had a consistent message since he started camipaigning. 1) National security 2) Family Values 3) Competition with Asia. He always hits the same talking points. His campaign has released more and more details as the year progresses, ala his 50-point Program for America. I agree with Pablo though, I’d like to see some price tags on the proposals before making a final judgement but there is no questioning what he is proposing to do. The main issue up for debate is whether you feel like he is the guy who can get it done. I for one feel like he is. I respect others who feel that Rudy is that guy, and like you, I could easily support Rudy in the General.