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In an email to supporters today, James Bopp Jr. makes his case for social conservatives backing Romney. Nothing new here… but he rounds up most of the major sources for this SoCon momentum in one email nicely:
Prominent evangelical Mark DeMoss recently circulated a letter to leaders of evangelical organizations urging support for Governor Mitt Romney. Click here: Townhall.com::Blog His point: the Republican Party will likely pick a Presidential nominee in the next 100 day (by February 5th) and, unless social conservatives rally behind Mitt Romney, the nominee will be Rudy Giuliani.
I share Mark’s choice of Mitt Romney and the urgency of Mark’s call. While several of the other candidates are certainly fine social conservatives, none has established his viability as a serious presidential contender. Only Mitt Romney has the resources to compete with Rudy Giuliani for the nomination. Click here: Interview: Romney Advisor James Bopp, Jr. – HUMAN EVENTS
In January, I argued that Mitt Romney was an acceptable choice for social conservatives. Click here: James Bopp Jr. on Mitt Romney & Abortion & 2008 on National Review Online Since then, Massachusetts Citizens for Life has given Mitt Romney an award for his consistent and courageous defense of life as Governor, Click here: In Case You Missed It: Governor Romney’s Remarks To The Massachusetts Citizens For Life and prominent Massachusetts pro-life activist and philanthropist, Ray Ruddy, has endorsed him.
Click here: Evangelicals for Mitt: A LETTER FROM MASSACHUSETTS
Other evangelical leaders have weighed in on the acceptability of the leading Republican candidates. Dr. James Dobson, America’s most influential evangelical leader, has expressed his opinion that Rudy Giuliani, Click here: James Dobson to Giuliani: “The Jig is Up” , John McCain, Click here: LP: Christian leader rejects McCain (Dobson) , and Fred Thompson, Click here: Dobson Indicates He’s No Supporter of Thompson’s – washingtonpost.com , are not acceptable, based on their positions on various important conservative issues. I have explained Fred Thompson’s adamant support of McCain-Feingold, while in the Senate and when it was before the U.S. Supreme Court in the McConnell case. Click here: Townhall.com::”Plain-Speaking” About McCain-Feingold-Thompson::By James Bopp, Jr.
Two other prominent evangelical leaders, Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council,
Click here: Religious Right Leader: Giuliani Same as Hillary – NewsMax – America’s News Page , and Dr. Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention, Click here: YouTube – Dr. Richard Land on Mitt Romney have recently expressed their view that Mitt Romney is an acceptable choice for social conservatives.
So it does come down to two things: (1) the viability of the candidate, which only Mitt Romney has demonstrated among the socially conservative candidates, and (2) whether social conservatives will have the courage to rally around the only viable social conservative alternative to Rudy Giuliani. A divided field means that Giuliani is likely to win the nomination. This is our choice to make, and we don’t have long to make it.
October 16th, 2007 at 1:15 pm
Can anyone say/spell…… COALESCING……? I think this is a big swing-moment in the campaign. SoCons moving away from Fred and All over to Mitt.
October 16th, 2007 at 1:32 pm
With this backing I suspect the poll numbers will start to show Fred’s support jumping over to Mitt over the next several weeks. Rudy has a big enough hill to climb without this news. Mitts early state strategy is now looking better and better. If Fred’s support truly does jump over to Mitt in the south (SC & FL), then Rudy is in big trouble. Rudy is already counting FL as a win and I thought there would be no way for Mitt to take him down in FL, with this news I now have my doubts and think Mitt has a very good chance to take Rudy down in FL. I can’t see how Rudy wins the nomination if he doesn’t win one or two states before super Tuesday.
October 16th, 2007 at 1:33 pm
Romney recently came through Arizona so I went to the event, and I was pleasantly surprised to see that most of his supporters were not (or in other words, did not seem to be, based on the dress and choice of drinks during the mixer) Mormon. The allegation has been that his church as been the source of all his support in the West. I don’t know what denomination, if any, they adhered to, be it Evangelical or something else, but the MSM view of Romney didn’t match my experience. If there is a national, Evangelical movement for Romney, I think it will begin to reveal itself shortly.
Off topic, but I had a chance to talk to him, and he was very nice and down to earth. His background is a world apart from mine, but I thought that he would make a great neighbor, especially if he let me use his swimming pool!
October 16th, 2007 at 1:34 pm
if it pans out to be true, then it would be very good news for mitt.
however, i think they will remain divided. we’ll see.
if rudy and mccain are going to team up on romney. romney and thopmson should team up on rudy.
if thompson were not so old. a romney thompson ticket might be good.
i would actually like to have a rudy romney ticket too. man, those two would kick hillary’s butt!!
October 16th, 2007 at 1:34 pm
I know that I’m going to totally confuse most of the MittSlammers here, but, as a Rombot, I don’t think this will be the “moment” that the swing starts. I will say, though, that this will likely be the start of the flow of those who have been struggling with their (misguided, in my view) conscience for wanting to support a Mormon.
Evangelicals, So-cons or whomever are not mindless followers voting in lockstep with their leaders. Contrary to what the MSM and a few of the posters here.
October 16th, 2007 at 1:44 pm
Just curious, why do you still keep pictures of the
irrelevant and especially “out” candidates like Gilmore
and others?
By the way, Romney looks great! – literally and otherwise.
October 16th, 2007 at 1:45 pm
I think this is a non-issue. The anti-Mormon rhetoric has largely been a non-issue to date, and the opposite, I think, will also be true.
October 16th, 2007 at 1:45 pm
many of the hard core evangelicals just can support a mormon in the nomination process. i think they would in the general, but not in the nomination process.
as it becomes more an dmore clear that the only to viable candidates who can take hillary on are mitt and rudy, many will indeed drift that way. but if hte window remains open to, say fred, or even possibly huckabee, they will continue to sit on their hands, and be divded, thus possibly handing the nomination to rudy.
if fred ot romney do’nt break out by thanksgiving, which i don’t see happening currently, then rudy will be sittign good. romney still is best positioned though of the othersif he can remain competitive in the early states.
October 16th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
#4 Dubious
Actually a Romney/Demint ticket makes much more sense, Demint will help Mitt carry the south. Thompson does have the name recognition but Demint is a much better choice.
October 16th, 2007 at 1:48 pm
Wonder whether our famed snake-handling fundamentalists here in WV will give Mitt the formal nod.
If he does that, I may decide to vote in the Republican primary here. Otherwise, I’ll probably register as a Dem since the local Repubs can’t even field candidates for any local or state offices.
October 16th, 2007 at 1:57 pm
#8 Dubious,
I don’t think it matters if Mitt or Fred break out before Thanksgiving. If Mitt can hold on and win in IA and NH I think you will see a windfall of support move from FT to Mitt. I do agree that this support will not shift over night, it will take several weeks but once it’s clear that Mitt has a better chance at the nomination Fred’s support will flock and rally around him.
October 16th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
A Romney/Demint ticket would free Hillary to choose Obama since Demint has even less experience than Obama.
Dubious,
Could you possibly use some punctuation and capitalization? Its like trying to read a stream of bumpkin consciousness.
October 16th, 2007 at 2:06 pm
I think they are waiting until after the Washington Briefing to support a candidate.
October 16th, 2007 at 2:13 pm
I thought when the masses awoke and realized that Giuliani was so liberal this would happen. So glad to see the shift has begun. This party needs to come together to win. If Romney hadn’t been a Mormon the party would have come together sooner. Religious convictions run deep and strong and I feel it is important to use your core beliefs in selecting a candidate for any office. I respect the difficult choice this will be for some. As an firm Mitt Romney supporter I hope they will see the great qualities in Mitt. I am very excited by this news and hope it is just the tip of the iceberg! Go Mitt in 2008 !!
October 16th, 2007 at 2:14 pm
Ray, I think its already clear. Campaigning is just too tough for Fred. This e-mail from James Bopp is going to be given a lot of weight by those who received it. This is a sign of things to come.
October 16th, 2007 at 2:18 pm
#15 Randy,
Thanks for the insight and I hope your right.
October 16th, 2007 at 2:27 pm
All of you are jumping the gun. Wait for FRC’s Washington Briefing, the *largest* gathering of social conservatives this year. With all the videos that have surfaced regarding Romney’s flip flops, I bet Huckabee comes out with the most endorsements out of that event.
October 16th, 2007 at 2:31 pm
You guys are a little delusional if you think Fred support goes to Mitt. A lot, and I mean a large number of them, list Giuliani as their number 2.
Also, Yes, James Bopp and Mark DeMoss are actively supporting Romney, but Perkins and Land aren’t. They feel he will be acceptable, but haven’t jumped on the bandwagon to support Romney in a primary. Land, I know for a fact, hasn’t.
October 16th, 2007 at 2:39 pm
No the best news for Mitt people:
http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071016/OPINION01/710160368/1035/OPINION
October 16th, 2007 at 2:45 pm
Tommy,
You are, of course, correct that Perkins & Land haven’t endorsed Romney, as well as many others who haven’t. I think that it’s telling, however, not so much what’s been said (as with Dobson), as much as what has not been said. These folks aren’t stupid. They realize that the longer they go on without endorsing, the greater chance that the party stays split with intra-party bickering, which ultimately weakens not only the party but their position of power (such as it is) within the GOP. The fact that they haven’t endorsed Rudy or Fred by now speaks volumes about their perceptions of them as candidates.
October 16th, 2007 at 2:48 pm
Nothing new there, Cliff.
October 16th, 2007 at 2:52 pm
Well Irish read the next to last paragraph about Romney having leveled off in Iowa for months after spednign 10 gazillion in TV ads. Worrisome!
October 16th, 2007 at 3:05 pm
#22 Cliff,
Not really worrisome, he still has maintained a double digit lead so not much has changed. I suspect that when all is said and done he will win Iowa with the same percent of votes he won the straw poll with (31.6%) and who ever finishes second will get around 18%, just my 2 cents.
As far as what Romney spent in Iowa, I think the payoff wont be realized until after a winner is declared and the nomination is handed down, then we can reflect on if it was money well spent.
October 16th, 2007 at 3:11 pm
Irish Right,
Richard Land has come as close to endorsing fred as he can. Oh wait, he has personally endorsed fred. He can’t publicly endorse him, just like none of the rest of them can because it puts their agency status in jeopardy. They may work behind the scenes for a candidate, but they cannot publicly pursue one candidate or another.
October 16th, 2007 at 3:17 pm
Yepsen is just trying to pump up the importance of Iowa. There is no way that Hillary loses the nomination just because she loses Iowa. She is more inevitable than Bush was in the 2000 primaries. If she continues to hold a 20+ point lead in NH it won’t matter how big of a bounce somebody else gets in Iowa because they won’t be able to catch her.
With regard to the GOP, Huckabee has 0 chance at the nomination. If he did well enough in Iowa to catch stay alive the Club for Growth and other fiscally conservative groups would bury him. Since he would have no money to fight back those attacks would go unanswered and he would lose. The worst he could do is prevent Romney from getting the nomination.
Yepsen is seeing the reality that Romney is going to win so the GOP side is probably a non-story and Hillary is going to win the nomination whether she wins Iowa or not. Since Yepsen is used to being the most important opinion in Iowa, he wants to make sure Iowa is the most important state, when in reality it’s not.
October 16th, 2007 at 3:23 pm
sorry pablozed, i will try harder. it is just not something i care about when blogging. probably should though.
bad grammar aside, i still think your crazy though
October 16th, 2007 at 3:44 pm
CNN just came out with a poll that showed Thompson tanking and Mitt moving up. In the short term this means that Rudy is lengthening his lead, since Fred at #2 is dropping. Over a period of time, however, it means that Fred’s former support has to go somewhere, and Romney is the logical place for it to go. The CNN poll simply shows that to a small extent this is happening now. As the trend continues, it will accelerate. If Fred still has significant support going into January, he will lose it fast. By the time South Carolina comes around, and Fred still hasn’t won a state, it’ll be gone.
October 16th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
Dave, problem is, more of Fred’s supporters like Rudy than Mitt.
October 16th, 2007 at 3:49 pm
You Mittbots SAY and THINK that “Romney is the logical place for [Fred's support] to go.” However, second-choice polling does not back that up.
October 16th, 2007 at 3:50 pm
Besides, Mitt would need not just half of Fred’s support, but ALL of Fred’s support, to exceed Rudy’s support.
Meanwhile, Rudy will be getting 2/3 of McCain’s support.
October 16th, 2007 at 3:51 pm
Metro, look at the poll Dave is talking about. The 8 points Fred lost could not have gone to Rudy because he also lost 1 point.
October 16th, 2007 at 3:52 pm
Metro, not so sure that Fred supporters like Rudy better than Mitt. Aren’t Fred supporters generally pretty socially conservative? Wasn’t that the appeal of Fred over Rudy? Most of the Fred supporters I know hate Guiliani because of his gun/abortion stances. Also, will you answer my question in the “New Brand?” post?
October 16th, 2007 at 3:54 pm
Metro,
I would also like to point out that the Fred supporters I mention have failed to go with Romney at this point because they view him as being too much like Guiliani, against guns and abortion due to his previously held stances. But I think if Fred wanes, and voters get to see Romney’s strong stances he’s set out on those two issues (guns/abortion) they will be willing to give him a shot.
October 16th, 2007 at 3:54 pm
Where did those 8 points go?
October 16th, 2007 at 3:59 pm
Randy, one poll is not enough. I read the internals of every poll. When asked about their 2nd choices, Fred’s support does not go mostly to Mitt. Only a fraction does.
October 16th, 2007 at 4:02 pm
Razorback,
Romney, McCain, and Hunter each gained two.
Metro,
Lets see what happens when the SoCon leaders do, and they will, come out for Romney.
October 16th, 2007 at 4:13 pm
Bob Jones III has just now endorsed Romney. Once the conservatives coalesce around Romney, He’ll move up in the national polls as well as solidify his early primary state leads.
October 16th, 2007 at 4:17 pm
Metro,
At least right now they might say their support doesn’t go to Mitt, but I really think that as voters get to know him, that will change. I know lots of people in this category that support Fred right now, and would only support Guiliani because they think only he can win the general. If they get to know more of Mitt’s positions and his passion for the conservative agenda and see that Mitt does have a chance of winning the general, they could very easily move to support Mitt. This is just my reading of the current political situation.
October 16th, 2007 at 4:20 pm
That’s what you guys have been saying all year. Hasn’t happened yet. Mitt just spent $21M this quarter, and went DOWNWARD over the last month in IA, NH, MI and NV.
October 16th, 2007 at 4:23 pm
Metro, yes down a little, but held onto leads and still polls well in those states. He’s also increased his leads in some other states. But don’t forget, Mitt was below his opponent in Massachusetts until the very end. We’ll have to see I guess in three months if we were right or not.
October 16th, 2007 at 4:49 pm
Trying to accurately predict the outcomes on polling numbers 4 months out is absurd. Are they good in the context that they are one factor in the overall analysis? Yes. Anything more than that? No, not yet.
October 16th, 2007 at 6:27 pm
Colbym, you can bet on it that he will let you use his swimming pool, if you do live next door, but then, you will already have one if you can afford to live in his neighborhood!
October 16th, 2007 at 6:42 pm
MR (#39), we have had this discussion about his downward trend. I quoted from it. Then you slammed me down telling me I’m not looking at the right thing. You said something about a month. I am not seeing it. So until then, here is the lead number of the past 5 polls for the rest of the readers of this post, and they can be a judge if you are correct:
IA – RCP Average 09/21 – 10/03: Romney +10.2
Des Moines Register, Romney +11.0
Insider Advantage, Romney +8.0
American Res. Group, Romney +1.0
Newsweek, Romney +8.0
Strategic Vision (R), +13.0
NH – RCP Average 09/16 – 10/09: Romney +4.2
Marist, Romney +6.0
Insider Advantage, Romney +8.0
American Res. Group, Romney +4.0
Zogby, Romney +3.0
CNN/WMUR, Romney +1.0
MI RCP Average is worthless because of an outlier ARG where Romney has a lead of 26 points. Really, Romney and Rudy is within MOE here.
NV is also worthless because they do not have enough samples of polls. And besides, here, we have seen the jump between Thompson, Rudy and Mitt.
So, again, since I am new with RCP, please tell me WHAT you are looking at. The RCP average I copied above is for the past month.
October 16th, 2007 at 6:46 pm
SGS, I’m looking at the AVERAGES for IA, NH, MI and NV over the last month. The last two do not have graphs yet, so you have to calculate the average in your head. Mitt’s average in all 4 of those states has DECLINED over the last month. Quite simple.
October 16th, 2007 at 6:47 pm
More specifically, the MOVING AVERAGES. Which are nicely captured by graphs. The lines go DOWN over the month.
October 16th, 2007 at 6:47 pm
Damn, when Mittbots can’t tell whether lines are going up or down, you’ve just got to scream. A first grader can tell an upslope from a downslope. What is WITH you people?