Huckabee passes Romney, and only 9% separates first from fifth place:
Rasmussen Reports Daily National Republican Primary Tracking Poll
- Giuliani – 20%
- Thompson – 19%
- McCain – 14%
- Huckabee – 12%
- Romney – 11%
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:23 am
this is getting better each day! I am becoming way too obsessed with this and we still have 12+ months to go. lol
October 26th, 2007 at 10:26 am
Huckabee moves above Romney. I think he has a real shot at winning Iowa.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:27 am
GO HUCK!
October 26th, 2007 at 10:27 am
Hallelujah!!!!!!!!
October 26th, 2007 at 10:28 am
“While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.”
October 26th, 2007 at 10:28 am
And let’s not forget that the Rombots have told us daily: Rasmussen is the MOST ACCURATE INDICATOR OF THE RACE.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:30 am
Oh yeah…Baby…Romney better be scared…hahahaha….Here we come…
October 26th, 2007 at 10:31 am
I’m guessing this is an outlier.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:31 am
Scott Rasmussen : The Elites Versus The Activists
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/10/scott_rasmussen_the_elites_ver.php
October 26th, 2007 at 10:31 am
Metro, I generally agree with that (Rasmussen being most accurate), even today. I would caution against too much schaudenfreude, though — it may come back to haunt you later and generally makes you an even more unlikeable character.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:31 am
I’m sure the Rombots will have an explanation for this.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:35 am
I am happy Huckabee is one point ahead. Now the Fiscal conservatives will start to notice Huckabee’s horribly horrid fiscal record. This guy will not fly in New Hampshire and that will be the end of his candidacy.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:38 am
#12 do some more research – you will find a pretty good record for Huckabee.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:39 am
Matt C, unlikeable character? I’m OK if a couple dozen Rombots feel that way about me. Millions of Americans feel that way about Mitt Romney.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:43 am
Watch now Romney, Huck, and Thomspson take each other out in Iowa and Rudy/McCain come in first and second. Just watch.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:47 am
If anyone is considering supporting Huck, read this first. http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110010782
Huck is like Giuliani in that he is only a conservative in one area – social issues. On the rest, Huck is not very conservative at all.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:51 am
Dump the Huck
He’s not VPOTUS material.
By Pat Toomey, president and CEO of the Club for Growth
http://article.nationalreview.com/print/?q=YzNiY2M5NzIxZDJlMDUxNzUwYmQ4ZDU5ZDAzY2U3YWU=
October 26th, 2007 at 10:51 am
I simply cannot believe people are still taking Fred Thompson seriously.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:53 am
#16 do all the research you want – this just means that since Huckabee is gaining in numbers, the attacks will start – just comes with the territory.
I do have to wonder what Romney will do today – run more ads??? Spend another few million?
October 26th, 2007 at 10:54 am
Aron- clearly another smear piece. There is no doubt Huckabee’s record on the war couldn’t be further apart than Edwards, yet they are treated as equal. Lazy, irresponsible writing.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:59 am
“I’m sure the Rombots will have an explanation for this.”
cute…
Here’s your explaination, most people don’t know who Huckabee is and those who do know him know very little about his weaknesses. He’s made a good first impression on me and a lot of other people, but when you get down the facts, he has a 2 legged stool just like Giuliani. One day he will have to own up to his tax increases, and one day he will have to weather the storm of Iowa and New Hampshire, and one day he will have to explain how he became governor of the same state that Bill Clinton was governor of. Unfortunately for Huckabee, those things will probably come to light around December and/or January. Nice timing. Like it matters anyway-it’s too late. Guess what, before we get to Texas and Arkansas where Huckabee has most of the support at, he will be dead in the water. I hate to burst your guys bubble, but early states matter. If Huckabee wins, I will be surprised, because who in the heck will vote for a person simply because of their demeanor and their social views and totally forget about economic conservatism?
Fact: Giuliani loves Huckabee to death. Why? Because he knows that Huckabee will lose because he’s an awful campaigner, but he sure “appears” to be better than Romney. Huckabee used to be my #2, now McCain is ever since I actually looked into Huckabee. I suggest others do their homework as I have and come to the same conclusion.
News release: Rudybots want a split party!
Way to think of the party, guys. I hope you don’t get your wish. Ever hear the quote “Divided we fall”?
October 26th, 2007 at 10:59 am
When people begin to pay attention to the Hucksters record he will fall fast. He is a liberal on all points except abortion. One more thing to all of you Huck fans, do you really want someone with absolutely no organization to be the nominee? Can you say Bob Dole all over again.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:59 am
Read this regarding the Club for Growth and Mike Huckabee:
http://wisdomisvindicated.blogspot.com/2007/08/huckabee-rebuts-club-for-growth.html
I am not saying Huckabee is without fault, but you should look at all sides of the issues.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:01 am
[...] post by Matt C and software by Elliott [...]
October 26th, 2007 at 11:03 am
oh no! a “Good news for Mitt” spin sighting (post 12)
October 26th, 2007 at 11:06 am
#21 – do some research on Arkansas taxes. I’ve lived here for twenty years, so I know them quite well.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:13 am
club for growth has trashed every candidate. they have major issues with Reagan’s 11th commandment. The reason, they HATE mccain-feingold. However, all the candidates support/supported (along with the vast majority of democrats AND republicans –dont feel like providing a link.. hint: google).
In quite the display of hypocrisy, CFG seemed to have forgiven Romney for being to the left of McCain on finance reform just 5 years ago. Presumably because they find a much more pliable candidate in Romney.
Good things happen when Romney is willing to shell out nearly $300 billion in subsidies to win an election, the Club for Growth rationalizes.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:15 am
Lets compare the tax rates in Massachusetts to the tax rates in Arkansas when both Huckabee and Romney left office.
That would be a fun time.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:18 am
Romney is still winning heavily in Iowa and NH, as the new NH poll continues to show. As for me, a Romney supporter, I still do not put too much weight on the national numbers.
If Romney wasn’t a threat, then none of you guys would be wasting your breaths to bash him. Keep your mouths rolling and maybe in a few months, they will be shut by a realization that Romney ran a better campaign and received the nomination.
If the national numbers can change so much in the past few weeks, what might happen if Romney does pull off 4 of the first 56 primaries/caucasuses and does well enough or possibly wins in both SC and FLA. Those national numbers are likely to change quickly as well.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:28 am
Do you want to compare the 10.5 years Huckabee was governor to the 4 years of Romney? They both had tax increases and tax cuts, and both left their positions with a surplus.
How about Romney’s 59% disapproval rating?
October 26th, 2007 at 11:35 am
Huck is the most electable of the Republicans…Plain and Simple…The only 2 term Repub Gov in a
Democrat State…
October 26th, 2007 at 11:39 am
Any minute now, the fi-con elites will wake up and launch an all out war to torpedo Mike Huckabee. This guy’s no joke. And he’s an absolute disaster to that section of the coalition. Maybe he’ll survive the barrage, but I’m pretty skeptical. His record in Arkansas is really attrocious on all things outside of social issues (and even there, it’s fuzzy…Wayne Dumond anyone?). I like Huckabee, would vote for him in a general, would accept him as VP, and desperately wish he were more ideologically sound. But, his record just can’t be satisfactorily defended.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:39 am
Rett how is Huck electable…he cannot even fundraise better than Ron Paul, yet you are going to ask him to out fundraise Hillary or any of their top 3?
October 26th, 2007 at 11:56 am
This entire race will come coming down to Michigan.
Why?
Because Romney will win Iowa (not by a blowout but 9+, a legit landslide), he will pull off New Hampshire by less than 9, blow people away in WY, win Nevada by less that 9. It will be Michigan because not only is Mitt Romney strong there, so is Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. It will be a war. It is GE swing state, people are intuned and everyone is in play. Whoever wins will then get the wave that usually comes out of Iowa into Florida and SC.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:06 pm
But this why Thompson will always go back down.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/26/thompsons-war-remarks-draw-fire/#more-2842
October 26th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
And who is saying Romney will win NV. Rudy has the State Legistive in his pocket waiting to play it.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:10 pm
Yes, Mitt has come down, But Why isn’t anybody talking about RUDY’s huge slide….Wasn’t he supposed to be above 35% by now…..
October 26th, 2007 at 12:19 pm
Abe…this is a Bash Romney site now, so we will not be talking too much about the negatives of Rudy or the others.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
bobbyderrin,
Your analysis is spot on! If Mitt wins Michigan, it’s a pretty good bet that he wins South Carolina. In the national polls, Rudy is ahead, but he’s only at 20%, and that’s disproportionately in the Northeast. Michigan is by far and away his best shot at winning a pre-Florida state, and as Metro has observed ad-infinitim, ad nauseum, Rudy needs a state before Florida to hold Florida, and has to have Florida to do well on SuperTuesday. Michigan will indeed be a war, my friend…it’s the point of the whole exercise.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:27 pm
Paul8148,
The polls in Nevada have been inconclusive, but Romney has won as many of them as anybody, and more than most. It’s not written in stone that Mitt will win there, but he has a stronger organization there than anybody and he has a lot of support. The real problem with predicting it is that it’s not a primary. The reason Mitt will probably win it is momentum from earlier states. Nobody in the history of Republican presidential runs has won both Iowa and New Hampshire. Pat Buchanan has estimated that doing so would generate $100 million in free publicity, yield tons of money, and change perceptions all over the country. I think he’s right.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:28 pm
does anyone expect Rudy to make back to 30%?
October 26th, 2007 at 12:34 pm
UA Razorbacks Says…”How about Romney’s 59% disapproval rating?”
Try puting any republican in Mass. and see what approval rating they get. 59% is pretty dang good.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Its a good thing there is a 4% margin of error, which really means theres probably a 8% margin or error.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:38 pm
# 41 Razor, I think Rudy will get passed by Huck by Monday…. And Rudy will drop to 7.5%
October 26th, 2007 at 12:38 pm
Paul,
That quote won’t hurt him. McCain says that type of stuff all the time. He was obviously fired up, and that’s a good thing.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:41 pm
35 Paul8148
Just WOW. Could he be more clueless? Isn’t this absolute proof that anything he says about needing to win the war on terror is rote pablum?
October 26th, 2007 at 12:45 pm
#42 – the disapproval rating was 59% – that by any standard is very poor.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:52 pm
Romney didn’t have a 59% approval rating that was the percent of people who disliked him.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:54 pm
Dave, “as Metro has observed ad-infinitim, ad nauseum, Rudy needs a state before Florida to hold Florida.”
That is NOT what I’ve posted over and over. I said ANY ONE state before FL GUARANTEES him FL, and thus CA and IL. He gets NY/NJ/CT/DE anyway, and then it’s game over.
I also said he may win FL with strong showings short of a first-place win before FL.
GUARANTEE does not equal NEED. Especially when I always add that last bit about him NOT NEEDING it.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:56 pm
Regarding NV, there are only 2 recent polls, and this is their average:
Rudy 30
Mitt 24
Fred 16
JMac 10
That’s before Rudy gets the endorsement of the GOP state legislature. The Nevada GOP is over 50% pro-choice.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
Regarding WY, it will count for nothing. It is not a primary or a caucus. It is a handful of GOP committeemembers awarding 12 of their 28 delegates in early Jan.
It will make no more news than similar events in AK and LA in 1996 and 2000 when they leapfrogged IA/NH. Didn’t know that? Proves my point.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:58 pm
Until other polls reflect Rudy dropping( Bloomberg poll UP + 3 to 32%), this poll has to be considered an outlier regardless of Rassmussen’s reputation.
October 26th, 2007 at 1:02 pm
A 59% disapproval rating in Massachussets should be a badge of honor. In fact, if it was any lower, I would be worried.
October 26th, 2007 at 1:05 pm
#53
– actually some reports have the disapproval rating at 70%
October 26th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
why is nobody talking about rudy’s decline in this poll. he is sinking. only one point ahead of grandpa fred.
i think people are becoming aware of some of his views with him attending the frc conference and the last debate and it is hurting him some.
I think his drop is just as big of a story as huck’s rise.
please people, not huck. seriously. John fund has a great article on huck’s record today.
i have been predicting this for a few months now. i knew that huckabee would be the new mccain, the new media darling becuase he is a moderate mavrick type. loves to please the media elites.
another must read before anybody thinking about supporting huck.
http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110010782
October 26th, 2007 at 1:59 pm
Can we stop referring to Mass and Arkansas as “Democratic States” as if that means they’re equivalent? The way some of these comments read, one would think that Huckabee could have won the election to be Mass gov and would have had a great approval rating (Yeah . . . those bay-staters would really go for an evangelical Baptist minister, eh?)
AK is old-south Blue-Dog Democrat with a strong union contingent mixed in. It is a very socially conservative state (but happens to have lots of old incumbent Dems in the state legislature.) AK voted Bush over Gore and Bush over Kerry (by nearly 10%). The passed an amendment to ban same sex marriage by 75%!!! It’s a stretch to call AK a “Democratic State” by most measures.
Huckabee was a socially conservative governor of a socially conservative state (who governed a lot like a Blue-Dog Democrat).
Mass is about as LIBERAL as any state in the nation. On top of that, they are, I belive, THE MOST DEMOCRATIC STATE IN THE NATION. It has only 13% of its voters are registered as Republicans (yes . . . they’re far outnumbered by even independents). 85% of the state legislature are Democrats. Local school boards approve of reading stories like “The King and The King” to 3rd graders . . . don’t think the AK democrats would even let that one fly.
This is the definition of an “apples to oranges” comparison.
October 26th, 2007 at 2:08 pm
Jeff
FYI – AK is Alaska
AR is Arkansas
October 26th, 2007 at 2:29 pm
why is nobody talking about rudy’s downfall? his is one point from fred. lowest in a long time.
20 percent is not something to be exciting about, more like something to be worried about when you campaign is based on national status.
also, i have been predicting this about huck for months now. i knew the media would dub him the new ‘mavrick’ and media darling.
October 26th, 2007 at 6:38 pm
Huckabee had a good week but I see Mitt climbing back over him next week. This has become a really tight race but I think once Mitt wins Iowa and NH Huckabee and McCain will probably be gone. I see Mitt winning IA, NH,MI,NV,WY and maybe Maine then its on to SC.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:44 pm
Ron Paul will likely win Maine…