November 8, 2007

A Few Points

Huck moves into a Statistical Tie with Clinton…This is encouraging when you realize that 26% of those surveyed don’t yet even know Huckabee…

  • Clinton 46%
  • Huckabee 43%

Survey of 1200 Likely Voters Nov. 2-4, 2007

The Union Leader reports in

One national tracking poll has him in a statistical tie for third place with Romney and McCain, behind Giuliani and Fred Thompson. Ward said that in polls among SEA membership, Huckabee has drawn more support than the other Republican candidates combined.

“Corrections workers, retirees, workers at Health and Human Services, all find a reason to back him,” he said. The SEA political education committee and executive board also give Huckabee favorable reviews, Ward said.

Corrections workers were impressed that Huckabee recently toured the State Prison for Women in Goffstown and the Youth Development Center in Manchester.

HHS workers liked the idea that Huckabee used his state’s tobacco lawsuit settlement money on children’s health care, Ward said.

SEA represents 9,000 active and retired state workers.

Huckabee has been courting members for about a year. On a visit to the state this spring, he met with the SEA board for about an hour at its Concord headquarters. He’s followed that up with two meetings since.

State Sen. Bob Clegg, a Huckabee volunteer leader, said an SEA endorsement would not surprise him. He said he could see corrections workers were impressed when Huckabee talked with them.

“He gets a unique perspective … about what’s happening to the union guy,” he said.

New Hampshire campaign manager Debra Vanderbeek said Huckabee is excited about meeting with the SEA again.

“He identifies with people who are struggling, and that’s something they can understand too. His message resonates with a lot of their folks,” she said.

This could be big if it ends up happening…Huck is going to need a good showing in this state to have a chance…This could be his ticket, much like it was for the other guy from Hope, AR in 1992…

Now read the reaction to Thompson’s MTP interview from Bob Novak

Thompson was a former senator working as television actor when on “Fox News Sunday” March 11 he made himself available for president. I started to take him seriously a month later when a religious conservative activist (call her Miss Jones because she works for a non-partisan organization) surprised me by telling me she favored Thompson to fill a void among announced presidential hopefuls. She complained that no first-tier candidate — Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney or John McCain — fit her model and that overt social conservatives — Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback — could not be nominated.

I discovered broad support in April for Thompson among social conservatives, who were impressed by his 100 percent pro-life voting record during eight Senate years and could find fault only with his support for the McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill. As of Sunday, Thompson was still first in polls of conservatives by Human Events and American Values.

After Thompson’s unannounced candidacy got off to a shaky start, I checked again with Miss Jones shortly after Labor Day to see whether she had changed her mind. No, she still supported Thompson, though she seemed less enthusiastic than she had been five months earlier. But Sunday’s “Meet the Press” changed everything. “It was the last straw,” Miss Jones told me. “I’m outraged and so are a lot of other people.”

In the first question on abortion posed by Russert Sunday, he asked Thompson whether as a candidate he could run on the 2004 Republican platform that endorsed a “human life” constitutional amendment banning all abortions. “No,” Thompson replied, suddenly monosyllabic. “You would not?” “No,” said Thompson, adding “that’s been my position the entire time I’ve been in politics.” In fact, every Republican platform starting in 1980 has endorsed such an amendment and every Republican candidate since then has been able to run on it.

Thompson thought better of this position after the program. His campaign manager Bill Lacy told me Tuesday that Thompson “does not want to change the platform” in 2008. But there was no apology for raising the criminalization chimera. Neither Thompson nor Lacy seemed to understand that what he said antagonized the social right.

Miss Jones told me she switched off “Meet the Press” after Thompson’s talk about jailing women. If she had continued, she would have heard him reiterate positions that previously had disturbed social conservatives: opposition to a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage and opposition to congressional intervention to save the life of Terri Schiavo.

Thompson may be blowing his chance…If Huck catches fire in the early states…Thompson becomes a non factor…

by @ 9:53 am. Filed under Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch
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12 Responses to “A Few Points”

  1. ACT Blog Says:

    I’m afriad that Huck might be a little too soft on immigration – and his nanny-tendencies worry me, but he would still be better than Giuliani (and possibly McCain).

  2. oscar Says:

    uh, actually it is no suprise. that is why he is doing so well, becuase people don’t know he is for amnesty and big government.

  3. ThatLibertarianGuy Says:

    http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_republican_primary

    Romney w/ 15-pt lead over Rudy

    S==t, s==t, s==t, s==t, s==t.

  4. ACT Blog Says:

    Alright, Great News!

    However, it only highlights the fact that national polls and state polls are now moving in completely opposite directions.

    ?!?!?!?

  5. Swint Says:

    I suppose it all comes down to the state strategy (Romney) vs. National strategy (Rudy), My money’s on the state strategy, but we’ll see.

    I love Huck, but all he can do is throw the nomination to Rudy. No good can come of that.
    http://www.dryflypolitics.com

  6. Swint Says:

    One more thing, Not only is Romney up 15 in NH, TLG.
    He has built to a 16 pt in Iowa according a Zogby poll done the last two days.

  7. SGSFromLaptop Says:

    Rett, glad to see you using the same argument Mittheads have been using – that he is virtually tied with Hillary in many polls, regardless of 20% or so of the survyed not knowing the candidate.

  8. UA Razorbacks Says:

    I read this morning that Don Wildmon is going to endorse Huckabee

  9. WiseGuy Says:

    Rett, Watch for James Dobson

  10. Rett Hatcher Says:

    What do you think is going to happen with James Dobson…?

  11. Joseph D. Walch Says:

    Rett,

    If people in New Hampshire love Huckabee so much, why is Romney creaming him by 22%?

    I have no illusions that this election is even close to be decided, and therefore take every scrap of good and bad news with a grain of salt.

    The only thing propping up Huckabee, however, is the fact that Romney is a Mormon. Eisenhouer’s Jehova’s Witness background was never a ‘problem’ with the media, and neither is Harry Reid’s or Orrin Hatch’s Mormonism. If Romney were a Baptist preacher rather than a Latter-day Saint Bishop, then this nomination would be in the bag; but don’t worry, Rett. If the MSM ever succeeds in taking down the big fish, they will not forget the little fish.

    I think James Dobson is a little bit more politically savvy to back Huckabee right now, but I might be wrong.

  12. Dave Says:

    Currently Huckabee is in 4th place in NH. If he tries really, really, really hard, he can finish in 4th place.

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