The Candidates
Featured Archives
From The Page:
Michigan’s Jan. 15 presidential primary can for forward, the state Supreme Court decided Wednesday, keeping alive the state’s bid to be one of the 2008 campaign’s first contests.
The court decision should make it easier for New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner to schedule that state’s primary, which New Hampshire law requires to be the nation’s first. Gardner has been waiting to see what the Michigan courts would do.
If Gardner picks January 8th, that would mean that the main primary schedule would be as follows:
November 21st, 2007 at 1:13 pm
This is Good news for Mitt!
November 21st, 2007 at 1:20 pm
This helps Rudy and Romney. The question is how many people vote early via abstenne Voting before Iowa/NH comes in, now with the push the Secerty of State there will be giving to vote as soon as possible if you going to vote that way because they worried about how much time there is.
Also what affect will a beauty contrest have driving Independents and Dems into the Republican race.
November 21st, 2007 at 1:24 pm
SWEET!!
Although the convention situation would have benefited ROmney and McCain most it would have been written off as a “hollow victory”.
This will be a more fair show down in a potentially “swing state” (leans pretty strongly Blue though) with lots of electoral votes.
It could be determined by the momentum coming out of NH.
I think Nevada is actually on Jan 12th . . . or am I wrong.
With Michigan now officially pre-dating SC (and NV on or before the SC date) Fred or Huck will have a MUCH harder time surviving with any strength into SC with any kind of “general appeal” momentum.
It’s all about NH folks (though a Huckabee shocker in IA could upset the balance)
November 21st, 2007 at 1:25 pm
Here is a repost of the same topic from user kodiak73 over at martins blog, Hilarious!!!:
“This has been a test of the emergency broadcast system. The noise you have just heard is the sound of a Rudy Giuliani panic attack. In the event of a real emergency please gather at the command center… no wait, I mean please contact everyone via short wave radio… no wait”
Wow, echoing Martin, what a thanksgiving present this truly is for Romney — maybe he can survive a little more blood in IA now…
November 21st, 2007 at 1:26 pm
Let’s try that over at link one more time.
November 21st, 2007 at 1:28 pm
Metro, care to weigh in on this one?
November 21st, 2007 at 1:32 pm
MI is not winner-take all; Rudy is guaranteed at least 10 out of 30 delegates in a primary and he would have got nothing at a convention. So this is good news for Rudy strategy.
McCain is the loser here. Another point is the lack of concentration in SC (by all candidates)since MI comes just 4 days before and so this might help Fred in SC eventually.
November 21st, 2007 at 1:34 pm
This shift is a blessing and a curse for Rudy.
Blessing: he had no shot under a convention situation . . . now he’s in the mix.
Curse: Now he’s in the mix . . . it’s a showdown with Romney and he can’t survive a loss there with much grace.
November 21st, 2007 at 1:37 pm
It is true that Rudy has not much organization there in MI. In fact, I think McCain has more organization in MI than team Rudy. They are going to have to kick it in gear and actually start playing ball in MI now..
I’m sure Romney’s native son status will help him tremendously there in MI.
November 21st, 2007 at 1:38 pm
Jeff,
I was a bit unsure of Nevada’s date myself, but the Reno Gazette has it on the 19th as recently as a month ago. I haven’t seen any changes since then.
As for Michigan, I was hoping for a convention, but alas. After McCain wins New Hampshire, he will be able to springboard into Michigan and win that state too.
November 21st, 2007 at 1:38 pm
WY is not a primary. Or even a caucus. It’s a GOP convention where GOP officials are awarding a small fraction of their small delegates.
November 21st, 2007 at 1:38 pm
Colin,
Yeah. This is bad news for Fred and Huck as it makes SC less important.
Their “path” to the nomination just got narrower (like going from a balance beam to now a razor blade).
But how is Rudy “guranteed” at least 10 of the 30 delegates? Nobody’s polling at 33% in MI yet . . . is there something more to how the delegates get split other than the popular vote.
However, what Rudy gain here in the “non-winner-take-all” format he loses in California’s similar format.
November 21st, 2007 at 1:39 pm
Rudy’s led the last 3 MI polls.
November 21st, 2007 at 1:40 pm
Michigan is the biggest pre-FL prize.
I’m very excited by this development.
MI could be a race changer now (and not the way that LJ hopes)
November 21st, 2007 at 1:42 pm
Metro,
You got to give us more than that man!
You state a fact, but you don’t seem too confident in Rudy keeping that lead (tenuous as it is).
November 21st, 2007 at 1:44 pm
With this development, looks like there is an added importance to winning NH. Romney, McCain, and Rudy all need that win NH now going in to MI.
November 21st, 2007 at 1:46 pm
No offense you guys, but you have it all wrong about MI.
Your premise is based on the assumption that Mitt has a home field advantage in MI. He’s a “native son” so to speak.
So if he’s a native son, why is the RCP average in MI Rudy +3.4%? He has lead in the last 3 polls released in MI. If Romney enjoyed a native son advantage there, he would be leading already. Candidates don’t have to campaign to earn “native son” status. It’s just granted to them. He announced his presidential campaign in MI for goodness sakes!
Romney would have won MI IMHO if this had been a convention fight, as he has the troops to beat McCain.
As it stands, MI is now an open primary. Remember, John McCain beat Bush in MI in 2000. MI is now open for a Rudy victory, where it would certainly would not have been otherwise.
Also remember, Dems will not be campaigning in MI. So where do you think all those voters will decide to cast their ballots?
November 21st, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Kavon,
<i>So where do you think all those voters will decide to cast their ballots?</i>
To McCain, of course.
In all seriousness, the outcome of Michigan depends on the outcome of New Hampshire which depends on the outcome of Iowa.
November 21st, 2007 at 1:57 pm
Right, KWN. Gerald Ford represented a district of MI for 25 years. I am sure there will be an Ad from Rudy showing the endorsement from Frod. I have no doubt,barring some new developments, Rudy will poll at least 30 % and come strong second if not win it thereby assuring at least 10 delegates.
November 21st, 2007 at 1:58 pm
“John McCain beat Bush in MI in 2000″
Yes, this happened in large part because there was no Democrat primary at the same time as the Republican primary in year 2000. Many Democrats and Independents were able to vote for John McCain since it was a given that Al Gore would be their nominee.
That probably won’t be the case this time around. Forcing Democrats & Independents to vote in only one primary on the same day hurts Rudy & McCain.
November 21st, 2007 at 2:03 pm
Cwpete,
Are you forgetting what the DNC has pledged to do to MI & FL?
November 21st, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Kavon,
I certainly am. Good point there..
November 21st, 2007 at 2:07 pm
LJ’s got it. It’s not Romney’s “native son” status that makes me happy about MI. It’s Romney’s strong prospects in IA and NH. If Romney’s running anywhere within arm’s reach of Rudy a month from now, early state wins will seal the deal.
November 21st, 2007 at 2:10 pm
If the liberals crash our primary, and as Kavon suggest by #21, this MI primary may be tainted.
If I were a active democrat, I would not vote in my primary if there were not any delegates. What is the point in that?
Might as well cast my vote where it could count. Might as well just vote for the most liberal Republican.
November 21st, 2007 at 2:13 pm
Momentum comes from a perception of the strength of a candidate. This perception depends on the surprise element and margin of victory. If Romney gets 31% and Rudy gets 30% in MI, the technical win by Romney is not going to be perceived as big momentum inducing victory.
November 21st, 2007 at 2:13 pm
cwpete, “the most liberal Republican”?
Have you missed that the liberals are now shrieking that Rudy is Bush on steroids?
Were you in a coma when Rudy was Mayor, and fought this nation’s loudest and most successful war against…liberals?
November 21st, 2007 at 2:15 pm
cwpete is just spouting sour grapes because he just realized that this gives Rudy an advantage. The most “liberal” Republican on social issues is Rudy. Being the most liberal of the group on these issues but moderate when compared to the electorate as a whole is nothing to worry about.
November 21st, 2007 at 2:16 pm
Maybe somebody can look more into what Kavon is suggesting regarding cross-over vote.
A lot of it may come down to how the democrat primary unfolds. If Hillary wins in IA & NH and starts to run away with this, the MI democrat primary may be as insignificant as it was in 2000. How ironic that would be since the MI democrats sacrificed their delegates to have an earlier say? Funny..
But, if Obama pulls off a win in IA, the MI democrat primary may have some meaning for the party loyalists to not crossover.
Guess we just have to see how this all plays out..
November 21st, 2007 at 2:18 pm
“cwpete, “the most liberal Republicanâ€?”
My bad guys, I should have typed “the most liberal-social Republican.”
Fair enough?
November 21st, 2007 at 2:20 pm
Agreed, cwpete. Rudy’s appeal to bored MI liberals is something I’ve worried about. Despite me greatly prefering Hillary to Obama, I’d rather see Obama give her a run for her money so Rudy can’t be propped up by Democrats.
November 21st, 2007 at 2:24 pm
i personally don’t think this is necessarily good news for mitt. rudy runs strong there. he will get first or second place. this only helps him hold on until florida.
However it may give romney a safety net going into south carolina. if huck win iowa or comes in close second, romney can save himself by winning new hampshire which he likely will. this gives him momentum into michigan which may help him win there further setting him up for sc and fl.
south carolina wasn’t in the mix up. when is sc schedules for.
November 21st, 2007 at 2:25 pm
whoops, scratch that. didn’t read close enough.
November 21st, 2007 at 2:26 pm
“cwpete is just spouting sour grapes because he just realized that this gives Rudy an advantage.”
Nice spin there Adam and that is not true. Are you forgetting that this is a primary and not a general election?
If a large amount of Democrats and Independents crash the MI Republican primary, it will be a tainted primary. Call it sour grapes if you want, but it is what it is.. Just calling the spade a spade here..
Besides, is there not any merit to the statement that Republicans should decide who their nominee is?
November 21st, 2007 at 2:30 pm
If MI were a closed primary, Rudy would be hosed. It says something about his candidacy that his hopes in that state may rest on liberal crossover raiding.
November 21st, 2007 at 3:28 pm
cwpete, re #29, thank you. I’m thinking I’m going to have to exempt you from the Rombot/RomBorg category.
November 21st, 2007 at 3:36 pm
MetroRepublican:
I don’t mind the label “rombot” that much. I’m as excited and enthusiastic over my guy Romney as one can be. So don’t exempt me from the Rombot/RomBorg category just yet.
November 21st, 2007 at 3:49 pm
Michigan will be decisive. Rudy is positioned to possibly win, and if he does it will resuscitate his flagging campaign. I’m confident that Mitt will win for a whole bunch of reasons that I’ve already posted. If I’m right, Mitt will win in Nevada and SC. ILf I’m wrong, Rudy could win Nevada, and Mitt might lose SC. In either case, Michigan is decisive.
November 21st, 2007 at 4:33 pm
Here is what I predict:
Iowa= Romney win (barely)
Wyoming= Romney win (not barely)
New Hampshire= Romney win (this is the point Rudy, McCain, and Fred go into the back room to change their underwear)
. . . this is where if the above happens, then I feel that the below will happen as well.
Michigan= Romney win
Nevada= Romney win
South Carolina= Romney win (barely)
Florida= Romney win (but probably by the thinnest of margins)
the rest really wouldn’t matter at this point because Romney would win the GOP nomination . . . IF those 1st 3 states go to Romney. If not, then I predict the following:
Iowa= Romney 2nd to Huckabee (close race)
Wyoming= Romney win
New Hampshire= Romney win (barely beating McCain or Rudy)
Michigan= Romney 2nd place to Rudy.
Nevada= 2nd place to Rudy
South Carolina= 2nd or 3rd place to Rudy/Huckabee
Florida= Rudy wins
at this point Rudy wins the GOP nod. Those are my 2 possible scenario predictions.
November 21st, 2007 at 4:56 pm
At least this is good news for all of us in the anybody but tax-hike Mike crowd. If Huckabee had any chance before this will hurt him because it puts one more thing between Iowa and SC.
I think this is bad news for Romney. Even though it means the stakes are higher and only he and Rudy have a chance, before Rudy had no chance. With an open primary and no important Democratic race, Rudy will be favored to win MI. Mitt’s best chance is to beat Rudy be enough that Rudy fails to meet expectations in NH. If Rudy were to come in 4th in Iowa and 3rd in NH that might be enough.
November 21st, 2007 at 5:06 pm
[...] morning, Michigan set its primary officially as January 15 after the state Supreme Court reversed a lower court decision. As soon as [...]
November 21st, 2007 at 5:35 pm
[...] here is the tentative breakdown for January and February [...]
November 21st, 2007 at 9:14 pm
#21 – One thing to consider if the Dems do hi-jack the Republican primary is that they will rally their troops around the candidate they feel they can beat the easiest. That could play into Romney’s favor. According to Democratic strategists, they all think they will have the easiest time beating Romney. Just throwing that out there to think about.
November 21st, 2007 at 10:11 pm
43. Hmmm. Rudy could use that argument to dilute the significance of any Romney victory also. That means no bounce for any win from MI for any candidate.