Des Moines Register GOP Iowa Caucus

• Mike Huckabee 32% (29%)
• Mitt Romney 26% (24%)
• John McCain 13% (7%)
• Ron Paul 9% (7%)
• Fred Thompson 9% (9%)
• Rudy Giuliani 5% (13%)
• Duncan Hunter 1% (1%)
• Not sure/Uncommitted 4% (4%)

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucus goers, up from 28 percent in the Register’s last poll in late November, while Hillary Clinton held steady at 25 percent and John Edwards was virtually unchanged at 24 percent.

Survey of 800 likely Republican caucus participants was conducted December 27-30. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 25-28 are in parentheses.

Headlines

Huckabee’s Peep Show for the Press: “For Your Eyes Only”- By Ben Smith and Jonathan Martin

Did Huckabee Go To Far?- Associated Press

Huckabee Buys The Political Farm? - The Moderate Voice
His Seemingly-Nixonian Press Conference

Mike Huckabee has run his campaign and his political future into a deadend - Beehive Weekly

Huckabee in For a Trim- The Washington Post

Huckabee Cancels Romney Attack? But Shows It to The Media- The Des Moines Register

Huckabee’s Meltdown?- CBS News

Huckabee Decides Not To Air Those Nasty Ads…And Then Airs A Nasty Ad- Marc Ambinder

Huckabee Melting: Attacks Negative Ad Campaigning With… A Negative Ad- Marc Cooper

Huckabee Shows Ad To Media, Then Announces It Won’t Run- Radio Iowa

Huckabee Pulls Negative Ad, but Shows It Anyway- The Boston Globe

Huckabee Flip Flops On Whether To Attack Romney With Ad- Rocky Mountain News

Huckabee Yanks Attack Ad- Cedar Falls Courier, IA
*Headline of Tomorrows Paper

Smooth move…

I can now understand the joy Aron Goldman gets out of this.

The man who challenged me to a debate on Governor Huckabee’s foreign policy credentials three days ago, has responded to my critique

via J. Martin at politco:

To make matters worse, as Huckabee’s challenges have grown more intense of late, he has lost the aide he brought on to handle his rapid-response and research operation.

Joe Carter, who took a leave from the Family Research Council to move down to the former Arkansas governor’s campaign headquarters in Little Rock, has returned to Washington, leaving a key position unfilled in the crucial final days before the caucuses.

Well, the man couldn’t handle my knowledge!

In all seriousness, Carter’s a good man and I seriously doubt our little debate had anything to do with it.

Nobody could’ve paid him enough for that job. I had no wish to be in his shoes. So, with Huckabee’s research director gone, it seems Huckabee went into meltdown today. He jumped into something that he thought would win, but you can’t build a strong organization from scratch, and Huckabee hasn’t responded to the pressure of the spotlight. Huckabee has inspired a lot of good people, but as is the case, when you put your faith into something that hasn’t been tested or scrutinized at such a late event…

I have a lot more to say on this that will be included in a much longer piece I mentioned earlier that I hope to finish tonight before I go out.

I wish Joe Carter nothing but the best.

David Limbaugh, the respected conservative author, journalist, and brother of you know who… has a few words to say in his latest column:

It’s time to step up, Fred. Conservatives need a leader about whom we have no major reservations.

Rudy is a strong leader and very good on national security and the war. But he is a social-issues liberal, whose pledge to appoint originalist judges is encouraging — but not completely convincing.

John McCain is a war hero and a patriot. He has been strong on Iraq but disappointing on Guantanamo, tough interrogation techniques and other war-related issues. He is not a supply-sider and is abysmally bad — obviously — on campaign finance reform and thus free speech. Also profoundly troubling is his history of sycophancy toward the liberal media elite and, in turn, their sporadic love affair with him…

My problems with Huckabee concern his political agenda. Huckabee is probably the strongest social-issues conservative, and since his views are driven by his strong faith, I don’t fear he’ll change for expediency or other reasons. But it does bother me that he appears to believe — erroneously, in my opinion — that his faith requires him to endorse an unacceptably expansive role for government. Extremely problematic are his views on foreign policy — applying Golden Rule principles to implacable, deadly terrorists and dictators and sometimes even convicted murderers; his nanny-state, big-government tendencies, including advocating a federal smoking ban, greater government involvement in health care, and opposing school choice; his ambiguous record on taxes; and his pandering to liberals on global warming and class warfare, especially in borrowing from their lexicon to pile on George Bush concerning his approach to Democrats and to foreign policy.

That leaves us with Fred. I must confess that Fred is the only one I don’t have major reservations about — apart from electability…

I find his lack of “fire in the belly” refreshing. He strikes me as one of the few presidential candidates since Ronald Reagan whose primary motivation is not personal aggrandizement but rather serving and leading the nation in very troubled and dangerous times. I see him as almost being drafted into this project, and his refusal to drool publicly over the prospect of becoming the most powerful man in the world is positively delightful.

That said, he needs to make a more convincing case to the voters, which will require a greater display of enthusiasm that he views these as both perilous and promising times and that he is the best man, overall, to navigate the ship of state through these times.

So, Fred, please, as distasteful as it may be to you, it’s time to step up and prove you want it. Time is short

.
While some are talking about whacky backroom deals between candidates and conspiracies that are not true… many still aren’t satisfied, expressing major reservations in any other candidate. Time to make the sale.

I’ve got a long piece I’ve been working on that will address rumors and other whispers. Hopefully I’ll get it done before I go out tonight to get my groove on, but if not, I’ll get it up tomorrow…

The GOP race for 2008 is beginning to resemble the Democratic race for 2004 more every day. And McCain appears to be ably filling the Kerry role:

David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision polling company is predicting the Republican primary will come down to a two-man race between John McCain and Mitt Romney.

“We’re seeing trendlines in the direction of Romney and McCain,” he just said.

He says that last cycle his organization did see late trendlines breaking towards Kerry and Edwards, who finished first and second in Iowa.

He also notes that we could, God forbid, still see an event between now and Florida that reorients the election towards terrorism, national security, and homeland security, which would help Giuliani, he contends.

“If I were to bet right now, I would be putting my money on John McCain,” says Johnson, who worked on Bob Dole’s 1988 campaign.

I’ve seen the analogy with ‘04 for awhile now, but I wanted to give Rudy a shot to prove me wrong and make a comeback before I presented the analogy to the world. As Kavon noted in his post today on the state of the race, Rudy is still a very viable candidate, and his late-state strategy is not outside of the realm of possibilities. That said, the aforementioned quote makes it clear just where the momentum currently lies.

McCain and Romney, as the two original frontrunners and establishment candidates of the field, are playing the parts of Kerry and Gephardt from four years ago. Like Kerry, McCain started off strong but faded along the way, surpassed by candidates that seemed far more enticing to the base. Romney, like Gephardt, self-inflicted many of his wounds by making Iowa a must-win state, a move that became folly after a contender emerged who had a real shot at taking the caucus. Huckabee is this year’s Howard Dean: the upstart insurgent who speaks to a very specific portion of the party base, but who is anathema to the establishment, which sees the insurgent as an easy kill in the general. Like Dean, Huckabee has put his chips on Iowa, and the Huckabee/Romney murder-suicide that is currently taking place is so much nostalgia to political junkies who remember the result of the Dean/Gephardt war of ‘04.

In this analogy, Rudy plays the role of Joe Lieberman. Like Joe, Rudy came out of the gate as an instant frontrunner due to a pre-existing claim to the throne as the hero of 9/11 (Joe’s claim, of course, being his position on a previous national ticket). But Joementum was short-lived after Democrats began to intuit that Lieberman was something other than a leftist on defense. Rudy, by not coming out as a pro-choice/anti-Roe candidate, and by tirelessly repeating the mantra that opposition to abortion is tantamount to locking up an entire generation of women and throwing away the key, nixed what would’ve been an easy run to the nomination and created a vacuum in the race by Spring of 2007, one that was initially supposed to be filled by Fred Thompson. But Fred, like Wes Clark, turned out to be a dud; his heart was never in the race, and it showed early and often.

The result: days before Iowa and the race lacks a frontrunner. Democrats faced the same situation in 2004. That year, the Democratic base began by supporting Kerry and Gephardt, but found them to be a bore. The base then moved on to Lieberman, whose name they recognized, but soon found his positions on key issues untenable. Then it was onto Wes Clark, until it became clear that he wasn’t ready for prime time. Then onto the firebrand, Howard Dean! Well, until he proved that he was unelectable by blowing up on national television. At that point, they couldn’t go back to Gephardt, not after the way he had attacked their wonder boy, Dean. True, Dean was quite mad, but ex-Deaniacs weren’t going to reward Gephardt for telling them that. The only one left standing, and the nominee by default, was good, old, boring, reliable John Kerry.

This year, the very same dynamics can be found on the GOP side. This year began with a McCain/Romney race for the nomination. But McCain was old and boring, and Romney was a bit too slick. Then Rudy jumped in, the hero of 9/11! Republicans rushed to him, but were taken aback when Rudy’s positions on issues like abortion seemed a bridge too far for most conservatives. Then came Fred, who had position papers that made the Reagan Coalition swoon. But it soon became clear that Fred didn’t really want to run for president, he instead wanted to meander for president. Disillusioned again, the base became interested in Huckabee. He was like Fred, but actually seemed youthful and energetic! But it soon became clear that Huckabee would scare away independents with his past quotes on social issues and religion, and would split the base because of his fiscal and defense views. Deciding that Huck is unelectable, the GOP base finds itself back at the McCain/Romney fork in the road. But like Gephardt, Romney has been tainted by his relentless attacks on Huck. The only man left standing, and the likely 2008 Republican nominee, is good, old, trusty John McCain.

The last Des Moines Register poll will be out tonight at 9pm CT/10pm ET.

I don’t know how much water it will hold given Mike Huckabee’s self-destruction this morning.  Three more days, Huck. All you needed to do was hold out for three days and you couldn’t even do that.

Huckabee is a showman. “Hopefully this is an add you will not see, except in this one room,” he says, within 2 minutes of telling everyone he is giving them a copy.

When asked why he did he show the commercial any way he says, “If you we told you we were going to run an add, then not run ad, you would ask. “Where’s the ad?’”

The obvious answer at that hypothetical point would have been “I told you i am not going to run it.”

Does he think we are fools?

“Jason, You are being too harsh!”

Really? Explain this:

“Huckabee said the ad — which attacks Romney for being too dishonest to be president — was sent to television and radio stations yesterday but will not be broadcast. He said he had made the decision 10 minutes before his [12:00pm CST] news conference, surprising even his top staff. ‘I pulled the ad. I do not want it to be run at all,’ he said.” Wapo

and then this…

“An official at KCRG-TV9 TV9 in Cedar Rapids confirmed that the station received the 30-second spot from the Huckabee campaign shortly after 6 a.m. today but was told at 10:01 a.m. not to air the commercial and the station did not show the paid advertisement.” link

Why does much of Huck’s showboating remind me of this (1:46):

Seriously people.

I’ve refrained from posting too many articles and blogs critical of Mike Huckabee, mainly because I didn’t trust myself to offer a balanced perspective. My feelings on his candidacy have been amply demonstrated in the comments section. But, I can’t help but reference the absolute whopper of a move Mike Huckabee made today. He held a press conference, announcing that he had intended to air an ad critical of Romney, but he ultimately held back, because he didn’t want to “lose his soul”. Then of course, he aired the ad to a roomful of reporters. The absolute stunning absurdity and cynicism of this move might well eclipse anything we’ve seen in this campaign thus far; Mitt Romney’s most egregiously political moves look like good faith measures in comparison; even the traditionally anti-Romney media class exploded into hysterics when Huckabee announced his decision. But, I can’t say I’m surprised. Huckabee has spent the last few months bursting with cynical, self-righteous, deviously constructed moves. Most have been considerably more subtle, but it’s been a defining aspect of his campaign. He blares Christian Leader ads, and then denies this is meant as a contrast to his Mormon opponent. He innocently wonders whether Mormons believe Jesus and Satan are brothers, and then claims that he felt a reporter would be more informed on theology issues then a pastor. He places a floating cross in the background of his ads, and then insists everyone, who seemingly noticed the cross simultaneously, must be paranoid. It’s despicable, and I think it’s reached an absolutely untenable level. Shame on you Mike Huckabee. Here’s the video.

Mike Gamecock DeVine:

1 - Southerners and Christians (including Catholics and Evangelicals) astound the Left by failing to establish the first theocratic “impose our views” State in the United States. Instead, judges in Massachusetts establish a Secular Darwinist, Man-Made Global Warming Church theocracy in the Bay State, joining the non-Christian theocratic City-State in San Francisco. Christians whose churches were invaded and taken over for group orgies with Mayoral consent in the City by the Bay are welcomed with open arms by the ecumenical Muslim-Chaldean coalition in Baghdad.

2 - Pakistan fails to devolve into anarchy.

3 - The Taliban fails to take over Afghanistan.

4 - The MSM fails to report the above and continues to refuse to report the late 2007 US victory over al Qaeda in Iraq.

5 - Chelsea Clinton continues press blackout of nine year old reporters from Scholastic magazine and expands same to include ten-year olds from Nickelodeon.

6 - Bill Clinton finally utters Hillary’s name at a campaign stop in Chicago on February 4, 2008; loses his voice and suffers a myocardial infarction soon thereafter; is hospitalized at University of Chicago Medical Center; and is served with summons charging him with the crime of bigamy and assault and battery with a stogie by a Nurse Ratched.

7 - Colts defeat Redskins in Super Bowl.

8 - LSU defeats Ohio State for mythical BCS college football championship. Refuses Appalachian State challenge.

9 - Lakers defeat Celtics for NBA championship.

10 - Neither Huckabee nor McCain will win SC GOP primary.

11 - Obama wins Democratic Party nomination.

12 - Obama loses election to the GOP nominee.

13 - Mike Gamecock DeVine is vilified for refusing to predict who the GOP nominee, and next President of the United States, will be.

14 - Neither Huckabee nor McCain will be referred to as President-elect during 2008.

Op-Ed Columnist – The Charlotte Observer

Blogs as Gamecock at www.redstate.com, and www.race42008.com and is Legal Editor for http://theminorityreportblog.blogspot.com and http://thehinzsightreport.com/.

“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson

I will be reposting occasionally throughout the next couple days with Kavon’s permission

I am heading to Iowa for the Caucuses. I am working on being embedded with the press covering Governor Mitt Romney. Being embedded though costs money. The campaign foots the bill for your travel, then charges you for the reimbursement. On the day of the caucus the price will be minimal, perhaps a hundred or two. The day prior will cost more money, since it will be day spent flying from place to place with the Governor. Add these costs, and the hotel rooms and the travel to Iowa itself, this could easily be a $1500 expenditure on my own.

On caucus day a friend of mine will be following around who is a professional photographer, so we should get some good shots.

The good news is if it works out, I will be able to bring lots of coverage and live video since I will have constant internet access. Kavon has set up a really great site here but unfortunately neither Kavon nor myself are made of money. If you enjoy all the content here at Race42008, and would like to get some real in depth coverage and behind the scenes footage, then consider contributing. Anything unused will be saved and used for future event coverage, the site, or for the Convention.

You can contribute here and send payment to jasonpbonham@hotmail.com.

And a reminder…

Since I will be in Des Moines Tuesday night through Friday morning, if any of the other campaigns would like I am happy to do interviews of their guys here at Race42008. If any readers want to point me in the direction, let me know and I can try my best to work it out. As a matter of fact I am willing to leave today and cover another candidate if someone wants to pitch in for the additional costs and point me to the right campaign. Name the candidate and I will go to where I need to go.

We’re just 3 days away from the Iowa caucus, and something odd has happened; the two candidates with the most traction are the “next in line” guy (McCain) and the candidate who’s focused heavily on the early states (Romney); in other words, precisely the candidates we’d of expected to triumph, before the “this is a different sort of election” drum-beat began.

Indeed, I’m still struck by the absolutely foundational significance of Iowa; the two original front-runners decided to ignore the state, to render it meaningless. The superstar actor did the same until less then a month ago. Three front-runners, three guys who at various points had the clearest paths to the nomination, tried to kill Iowa in it’s grave. And ironically, it seems like the entire race could pivot on the outcome. Romney wins there, he probably hangs on in NH, and likely runs the table. I think this underscores the central lesson of the primary season; you don’t bet against tradition.

When a pivotal segment of the party says a twice-divorced pro-choicer is unacceptable, take them seriously; they’ll find a way to make themselves relevant, often in very unpleasant ways. When someone claims to have invented a new mode of campaigning, and pointedly refuses to participate in the “dog and pony” show, take their claim for what it most assuredly is; a sure sign of either delusion or a fundamental mis-understanding about what it is that drives elections. When a candidate’s staffer pronounces the death of a venerable coalition, and when the candidate himself tries to remake the party using seeds from the opposition’s garden, treat them with due skepticism.

This is a race, but it’s not a sprint and over the long haul, durable methods usually win out. For all of the sensitive and powerful topics that politics touches; life and death, right and wrong, freedom and captivity (all wrapped up in a complex package of issues) politics is generally governed by rules, not by emotion. And even emotion has an underlying structure, that tends to repeat itself.

Charismatic politicians can inspire emotional reactions in others. But, charismatic politicians are uniquely vulnerable to charges that they’re not serious, and that they’re dishonestly “slick” in some way. There are patterns here, and the politician who refuses to take the well-worn lessons of history and tradition as instructive, and sometimes definitive, will come to heart-ache.

This race might have turned out differently, and it’s hardly over even now. Rudy Giuliani’s managed chaos might materialize, thrusting him to a winning position. The populist from Hope could take a shoe-string budget, and stretch it well beyond Iowa, with a carefully choreographed campaign narrative, and an energized grassroots network. These outcomes are neither impossible, nor even improbable. But, I think it’s notable that, despite all the surface differences in the 08′ race, many of the core ideas that have animated GOP primaries and politics generally for decades, remain in place.

Real life commitments have kept me from writing as often as I would like to lately. However, with the bullets starting to fly on Thursday, I just cannot resist taking a break from my domestic responsibilities (there is about 5″ of snow in my driveway that needs shoveling right now) to write on how I see things standing at this time.

First off, I have to admit that I believe anything can happen in this race. We have experienced so many unforeseen twists and turns to this point that any outcome short of Duncan Hunter winning the nomination should not come as a surprise to any of us.

That is why I think of the race in terms of scenarios at this point. The most likely of which I have outlined below.

Scenario One - Rudy Wins

Or perhaps a better title would be “Chaos Theory”. This is the scenario that Team Rudy believes will actually come to pass and catapult him to the Republican nomination. In this scenario, the first five primaries are split among 3 different candidates.

Iowa: Mike Huckabee wins
New Hampshire: John McCain wins
Michigan: John McCain wins
Nevada: Mitt Romney wins
South Carolina: John McCain wins a small plurality victory over Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee

This leaves Florida as the final battle between John McCain and Rudy Giuliani on Rudy’s adopted home field. With their organizational advantage and the strong support of critical Florida constituencies of New York transplants and Cuban and Puerto Rican Communities, Team Giuliani firmly believes they will win a battle in a two-man race between him and John McCain in the Sunshine State.

Before you blow off this scenario, please remember that there is a reason why folks who have a financial stake in the outcome of the race via participation in the futures markets still have their money on Hizzoner.

Scenario Two - McCain Wins

This scenario is identical to Scenario One except for the final result in Florida, where Sen. McCain is able to overcome Rudy’s home field advantage by making an appeal to Republican voters that he is most qualified to be Commander-in-Chief and emphasizing his 20 year Pro-Life voting record.

Scenario Three - Mitt Wins

This is perhaps the easiest and most straightforward scenario for most people to envision. However, it is also the one in which events that we cannot envision at this time having the greatest chance of derailing the whole thing before actually coming to fruition.

Simply put, Mitt wins Iowa and New Hampshire, which springboards him to victory in Michigan and South Carolina. By the time we get to Florida, no one has won a primary besides for Gov. Romney. In the end, Mittmentum is just too much for Hizzoner to overcome.

Scenario Four - Huckabee Wins

This one is also fairly straightforward to imagine:

Iowa: Mike Huckabee wins
New Hampshire: John McCain wins.
Michigan: John McCain wins.
Nevada: Mitt Romney wins.
South Carolina: Mike Huckabee wins
Florida: Mike Huckabee wins.

Scenario Five - ??? Wins

The most intriguing scenario to speculate on is this one:

Iowa: Mitt Romney wins. FDT comes in 4th place or below.
New Hampshire: John McCain wins
Michigan: John McCain wins

Fred Thompson would likely be out of the race at this point, and Gov. Huckabee would be severely weakened by his Iowa loss. So who wins South Carolina? Fred would likely have already endorsed John McCain in this scenario. So the million dollar question is who gets the majority of Thompson and disillusioned Huckabee supporters? Your answer to that question will tell you who to believe will win the Palmetto State if this comes to pass.

In my opinion, it is difficult to imagine Fred supporters flocking to Mitt due to the bad blood that still exists over Phoneyfredgate. It is also difficult to imagine the majority of Huckabee supporters flocking to Mitt after the unpleasantness in Iowa that will inevitably occurs between the two camps. So my answer, for what it’s worth, is that John McCain wins SC in the scenario as well.

So in reviewing my five scenarios, there are a few factors that I am fairly certain you can take to the bank:

Rudy Giuliani will under no circumstances exit the race before Feb. 5th.-Of all of the factors to count on in this incredibly fluid race, count on this one.

There is no plausible scenario in which Mike Huckabee wins the Republican nomination without winning Iowa.-Huckmentum is stopped cold with a loss in the Iowa Caucuses.

If John McCain wins New Hampshire, he will win Michigan.-People always either forget or underestimate the role that Democrats and Independents voting in the New Hampshire and Michigan primaries play in determining the winner. George Bush defeated John McCain handily among Republicans in the 2000 New Hampshire Primary. However, McCain ended up with a nearly 20 point margin of victory when the Democrats and Independents were factored in. The Michigan 2008 Republican Primary IS the New Hampshire Republican Primary of 2000, only more so. There is truly very little incentive for Democrats and Independents to participate in the Democratic primary this time around.

Another factor worthy of mention here is how much of an impact a Hillary victory in the Iowa Caucuses would have on the New Hampshire Republican Primary. If Queen Hillary is wounded in Iowa, the Democratic New Hampshire Primary will be a bloodbath. It becomes a far less interesting race if Hillary wins Iowa. Inevitability will inevitably set in on the Dem side in such a scenario.

Mitt Romney needs victories in both Iowa and New Hampshire.-With McCain’s resurgence, a Romney loss in either state transfers momentum to the Arizona Senator.

Candidates dropping out after Iowa will make an enormous impact.-You can bet that at least one major candidate will drop out after Iowa. This is where endorsements that we cannot foresee at this juncture will come into play.

Mitt Romney will win Iowa.-Unless most polls on the morning of Jan. 3rd show Gov. Huckabee with more than a 5% lead on Gov. Romney, count on Mitt raising his arms in victory on caucus night. Romney’s GOTV structure in Iowa is simply too much for anyone to overcome in anything less.

Of all of my “take it to the bank” predications, this is the one of which I am the least certain. I was among the many that were completely taken aback by Gov. Huckabee’s showing at the Ames Straw Poll, and I believe that this may be indicative of a core group of support that may be difficult to poll accurately.

Sadly, Iowa may come down to a religious war of sorts, with Evangelical leaders/churches racing to organize to match Team Romney’s meticulously planned LDS GOTV effort. Unless significant progress was made in the last two-weeks on Gov. Huckabee’s behalf, Romney’s two-year head start will prove to be too much to overcome.

Well, there you have it folks. We only have a short time to wait to see just how smart I am in my analysis of this race.

The R4′08 staff was asked to gaze into their crystal balls and tell us what they saw in store for us in 2008. Their predictions are printed below…
_____________________________________________________________________________________

DaveG:

John McCain will make the comeback of the century (it’s still early in the century) and win the GOP nomination in a rout after finishing a strong third in Iowa, with over 20 percent of the vote, and winning New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida, dispatching Romney, Huckabee, and Rudy, respectively. The narrative coming out of the race will be that pundits should never, ever count out GOP frontrunners, even when their campaigns seem as good as dead, because ultimately, Republicans will come back to the guy whose “turn” it is every time.

McCain/Pawlenty will beat Hillary/Bayh by winning all of the red states, minus Arkansas, and by adding Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, and New Hampshire to the GOP column. The popular vote margin will be between 5 and 6 points.

On the day after the election, Hillary will file divorce proceedings against Bill.

President-Elect McCain will announce Joe Lieberman as his pick for SecDef, and will be advised by his longtime allies Kristol and Kagan. In response, the MSM will become even more blatantly anti-Semitic.

David Cameron will become the new PM of the UK, ousting Gordon Brown and bringing a new generation of Conservatives to power on the other side of the pond.

Andrew Sullivan will vote Republican in the general election. Pat Robertson won’t.

Democrats will pick up three Senate seats. Republicans will net one House seat.

After he loses the nomination, Hugh Hewitt will beg Mitt Romney to run third party. Mitt will instead go back into the private sector and make another million by the time the year is over. Dean Barnett will post a Q and A to weigh the pros and cons of taking Hugh out for a drink and allowing him to drown his sorrows.

John Derbyshire will say something wry and clever.

DaveG will post at least one YouTube clip from a sci-fi/fantasy film in order to illustrate an Important Point in one of his posts on Race42008.

LJ will be given a cushy White House job in the fledgling McCain Administration. He’ll frequently take his fellow R4′08 contributors in the area (cough, cough) out to lunch at pricey DC establishments. The taxpayers will foot the bill.

Michael Lawrence:

The nomination battle will be Romney vs. Everyone. Romney will lose. But, if Romney wins, he’ll ask Fred Thompson to be his VP. Fred Thompson will decline and return to TV.

John McCain will pull a surprisingly strong 3rd in Iowa. Thompson will consider dropping out after Iowa. If he hasn’t already dropped out, Thompson’s disappointing showing in South Carolina will knock him out.

The New England Patriots will not represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Nevertheless, the AFC representative will win the big game. The halftime show will be slightly less awful than usual. No one will watch anyway.

Tired of being told by TV and evangelical pundits that everything they like is bad, America’s guilt nerve will renew its commitment to fast food, especially the Big Mac.

Chuck Norris will not fall into a tiger pit. Instead, that San Francisco zoo tiger will fall into a Chuck Norris pit.

Unless the race is between Obama and McCain, the Ron Paul movement will grow during the 2008 general election as voters become dissatisfied with the same old choices. Paul will have a Goldwater-esque influence on the Republican Party as the entitlement crisis become more acute in the 2010’s.

Duncan Hunter will go negative on Huckabee. Everyone in Iowa will ask, “who is Duncan Hunter?” Alan Keyes will remain completely insane.

William Reston:

Mitt Romney will become the Republican nominee and will lose to Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College by a 323 to 215 margin, with New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Arkansas, Missouri, and Virginia switching from Red to Blue. Defying all conventional wisdom regarding her “ceiling”, Hillary wins the popular vote by over 2%.

Romney’s nomination results in the GOP losing six-senate seats instead of three (Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, New Mexico, and New Hampshire) and a push in the House where at least modest gains were expected.

Reacting to the nomination of a Republican candidate who starts even with the Democratic nominee in Red States like Kentucky, Tennessee, and Texas-many Republicans simply sit this one out; not due to any ideological contention, but due to a sense of hopelessness regarding Romney’s electoral prospects. By August of 2008, Romney is essentially a self-funded candidate, with his staff and volunteers at the state level exceed 5o% LDS in many areas, as they refuse to jump ship with the rest.

The blame for Hillary Clinton’s Presidency is also laid at the feet of the two biggest proponents of Mitt Romney in the conservative media-Hugh Hewitt and the National Review. Hugh Hewitt’s radio show will be off the air before the end Hillary’s first term (although Townhall will remain). The National Review, which already depends on donations to survive, will cease to publish a print edition within Hillary’s first four years as well.

President Hillary Rodham Clinton replaces retiring Supreme Court Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg, John Paul Stevens and David Souter with liberal justices in their late 40’s within the first two years of her administration.

And, oh yeah…. The Dallas Cowboys will defeat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.

Tommy Oliver:

The Ron Paul ReVOLuTIOn will finally take over the airwaves, when he takes a job as the full time Sunday night replacement for Art Bell on Coast to Coast AM.

In December of 2008, Rudy Giuliani will still be campaigning in Florida for the GOP nomination, apparently forgetting that the Republican primary ended months earlier.

Duncan Hunter will build a fence.

Fred Thompson comes from behind to become the favorite, but sleeps through the convention, thus losing out on the nomination.

Al Gore finally defeats the republican nominee in the general election, only to find that both are beaten by the third party candidate.

The next President of the United States will be Zell Miller.

Brett Passmore:

John Edwards comes from a behind the curve victory and sweeps the Democratic nomination after most of the democratic voting bloc gets cold feet on electing a minority president.

Ron Paul and his massive grassroots campaign actually do get the voters to the polls and secures the libertarian nomination. Paul gets hammered by Edwards in the General after one of his campaign managers “accidentally” leaked out their plans to completely remove the preamble, bill of rights, and all the remaining amendments from the constitution, claiming the original document was perfect. After this defeat, the remnant Paulites form a separate union in a massive spread of land in Nevada purchased with the remaining campaign funds and declare their independence from the USA.

The price of oil surges to 200 a barrel after the Saudi King is assassinated while making his pilgrimage to Mecca. The country falls into chaos and the US is forced to tap the strategic reserve and expedite drilling in ANWR and the Atlantic coastal shelf. Venezuela continues to hemorrhage skilled workers to surrounding countries, so Hugo Chavez returns to the UN and signs an oil for labor agreement with the new president of the US to encourage a US labor pool in the foreign nation. US does not bomb Iran, in fact we help them to construct their 1st working nuclear reactor in exchange for Khomeini’s promise to abandon their weapons program.

John Edwards’ first order of business as president will be to secure the rights of illegal aliens living in the US to become citizens. A deluge of immigrants floods into the southern and surprisingly the northern border. ICE is overwhelmed by the applicants and is eventually dissolved and a replacement agency that is twice as large, and 3 times more expensive is created. The border fence is scrapped and Ramos and Compean spend their full term in jail. On a lighter note, Parris Hilton does not appear in the headlines all year. Neither does Lindsey Lohan.

LJ:

John McCain completes a stunning comeback to win the Republican nomination for President and selects Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate. Hillary Clinton manages to fend off stiff challenges from Sen. Obama and former Sen. Edwards to win the Democratic nomination. She selects fellow senator Jim Webb as her running mate. McCain/Pawlenty win the hard fought general election by taking Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Oregon, despite losing Ohio.

The Democrats win 4 Senate seats: Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Alaska.

After losing the primaries to Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama begins preparations for a run as Illinois governor in 2010.

Iraq will remain relatively quiet, casualties will steadily decrease, and American troops will begin to be drawn down in the summer of 2008.

President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan will either be assassinated or overthrown in a coup.

There will at least 2 major political scandals involving Congress members from both parties that will be caught on Youtube.

Matt C.:

In a surprise move, Jack Bauer will singlehandedly capture and torture Osama bin Laden, leading to the dismantling of the entire al Qaeda network. This leads all the major GOP candidates to make a statement on the subject:

• John McCain- “This was a black mark on the United States because of the implementation of waterboarding in the interrogation process. Having al Qaeda in tact would be preferable to being a country that tortures terrorist masterminds.”
• Mitt Romney- “I saw Jack Bauer torture and kill Osama bin Laden; in that I mean I support, in general, the interrogation and death of terrorists across the world.”
• Fred Thompson will sleep through the press conference announcing the news and will be unavailable for comment.
• Rudy Giuliani: “I was in Pakistan just as much as Jack Bauer was, showing that I am the only man on the planet who can keep this country safe.”
• Mike Huckabee: “My advisors have forbidden me to make any statement on matters of foreign policy.”

American Gladiators will be the #1 show on television, surpassing American Idol as tons of 20- and 30-somethings (including myself) tune in to relive some great moments of their youth. A special Politicians Gladiators show will garner some of the highest rankings, as Americans watch Venom destroy Nancy Pelosi in the Joust.

Romney/DeMint will defeat Clinton/Bayh by an electoral vote of 274-264. Romney will lose OH, NM, AR, and VA but pick up NH, MI, WI, and an electoral vote from Maine.

After losing the GOP nod, despite numerous denails saying he wouldn’t, Ron Paul launches an independent bid for the White House. After realizing he does not have ballot access as an independent, he will switch his party affiliation once again and run on the Libertarian ticket. He will get slightly more votes than last time he ran.

BONUS Prediction: Results of the Iowa Caucus: Romney 41-44%, Huckabee: 25-29%, Thompson: 10-12%, McCain: 9-11%, Paul: 7-9%, Giuliani: 6-8%, Hunter: 1-2%.

Jason Bonham:

I accept a job with Sam Brownback’s Senate office in DC.

MyManMitt will become MyManRon.

Romney’s and Edward’s hair join together and create a Unity 08 ticket (not my joke, but I can’t remember where I heard it).

After losing McCain announces he will finish his term and not run again (real prediction).

Kavon gets bought out here for a million bucks and Race42008 becomes an entity of Oxford Press.

We finally get the answer of why so many of our “amateur” commentors at Race42008 have DC IP addresses.

Sampo becomes a county chair for Mitt. (real prediction).

Abe gets his long awaited Huck-a-bust (real prediction).

Fredstate becomes JohnState for the week between Iowa and New Hampshire, than becomes Rudystate till Feb 5th, then just sticks to Congressional stories until 2016.

We will find out Metro Republican lives on a farm in Oklahoma.

Mitt wins!!!! Everyone else eats CROOOWWWW!!!!! (certain prediction).

Aron Goldman:

January 21, 2008: After winning in Iowa and New Hampshire, man-of-the-world and presumptive Democratic nominee, Barack Hussein Obama, honors Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. by returning to his roots, saying he will help make Dr. King’s dream of a colorblind society come true by telling America that he is not black, and going forward (or at least through the general election) he wants to be called the name he’s known and who he’s been for the better part of his life…Barry.

February 1, 2008: The headlines read “US Fatalities in Iraq Fall to Single Digits in January”. Harry Reid demands an immediate, precipitous withdrawal, declaring: “This war is won.”

February 6, 2008: Mitt Romney, steaming after having blown over $20 million of his own money, vents by taking his 5 sons (sans a chunk of their inheritance) varmint hunting with Yosemite Sam. Mitt, despite being a lifelong hunter, tags his son Tagg with some buckshot. Romney claims to reporters that he saw his son standing nearby, but later clarifies that he only meant it in a figurative sense.

February 7, 2008: After failing to win over enough conservatives by running to the right, Mitt Romney makes the political calculation to lurch leftward by collaborating with Lurch, himself, creating a bipartisan line of Phenomenal Flip-Flops, to be sold exclusively in Filene’s Basement.

July 4, 2008: 7-Eleven endorses Republican nominee Rudy Giuliani for president. They show their solidarity with America’s Mayor by renaming their 7,000 convenience stores across the United States, 9-Eleven.

August 8, 2008: After learning he has not been selected as Giuliani’s running mate, former Pastor/Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee appears on the new game show, Are You Smarter Than a Chimpanzee?; only to be humiliated by his fellow knuckle-dragging primate. Afterwards, the creationist-believing Huckabee who believes ‘intelligent design’ should be taught in public school science classes, and refuses to accept he and his family came from apes, blames his defeat to a chimp on the intoxicating Jesus Juice he drank earlier in the Green Room.

October 26, 2008: On Hillary’s 61st birthday, just nine days before the presidential election, Bill pledges eternal faithfulness and devotion to his distraught wife, and cheers her up by buying her a lifetime supply of Botox.

November 4, 2008: Even a half-white Barry Obama can’t convince enough American voters to judge a man by the content of his character, and not the color of his skin. Despite all polls suggesting another 2000 ‘hanging chad’ election, the result is an anti-climactic landslide of Cardin-Steele proportions.

December 17, 2008: At a victory Christmas party, President-elect Giuliani and Vice President-elect Palin are seen celebrating together under the mistletoe…

Kavon W. Nikrad:

Mitt Romney wins Iowa, John McCain wins New Hampshire and Michigan, Romney wins Nevada, John McCain wins South Carolina, and Rudy Giuliani wins Florida.

The 2008 general election match-up is a contest between Giuliani/Huckabee, Clinton/Bayh, Bloomberg/Nunn, and Ron Paul/???. Paul and Bloomberg split the Indy Right and the Indy Left (and the lunatic fringe to boot). Hizzoner wins a comfortable 286-237-15 Electoral College victory (Bloomberg wins New Jersey).

After eight years in the White House, Social Conservatives are hard pressed to identify a single difference between the Bush and Giuliani Administrations.

The New England Patriots will defeat the Dallas Cowboys 38-21 in the Super Bowl. Randy Moss is named the game’s MVP.

Note: R4′08 readers are encouraged to share their own 2008 predictions in the comments.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• John McCain 17%
• Mike Huckabee 16%
• Mitt Romney 16%
• Rudy Giuliani 15%
• Fred Thompson 12%
• Ron Paul 7%

Survey includes approximately 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Probably my favorite ad of his so far:

This post is backup material for Mitt Romney: Flip, Flop, or Slip on ENDA?.

Several people posted questions as to the content and the ramifications to the ENDA. This post summarizes several precedents that are troubling to conservatives. Please take a few minutes to review this list and leave some comments on it.

The Supreme Court has already ruled that a non-profit, private institution can lose its tax-exempt status if it violates the spirit of the national policy against racial discrimination, considering that race is a protected class, could church’s and other faith-based organizations loose their tax exempt status because of a newly created “sexual orientation” protected class?

One of my greatest concerns is the possible passage of the National Hate Crime law that would add sexual orientation. That while going through the house judiciary committee. I want to give a quote from something that happened during an attempt to add amendments (protecting religious groups etc, that were all struck down) (April 25th 2007).

Congressman Gohmert asked, “If a minister was giving a sermon, a Bible study or any kind of written or spoken message saying that homosexuality was a serious sin and a person in the congregation went out and committed a crime against a homosexual would the minister be charged with the crime of incitement?”

Gohmert was attempting to clarify and emphasize that the legislation would have an effect on the constitutional right to religious freedom and thus the Pence amendment was needed to protect religious speech.

The Democrats continued to explain why they could not accept the amendment. Lundgren continuously shot down their answer. He said, “What is your answer? Would there be incitement charges against the pastor?”

And finally Democrat Congressman Artur Davis from Alabama spoke up and said, “Yes.”

While I am not approving on the potential act of someone attacking another person for their sexual orientation in any manner (it is illegal to attack a person regardless), If a Pastor gave a sermon on why he believed something was wrong. It is his religious right to preach what he believes.

Several Dangerous Precedents are being set: (more…)

I will be reposting occasionally throughout the next couple days with Kavon’s permission

I am heading to Iowa for the Caucuses. I am working on being embedded with the press covering Governor Mitt Romney. Being embedded though costs money. The campaign foots the bill for your travel, then charges you for the reimbursement. On the day of the caucus the price will be minimal, perhaps a hundred or two. The day prior will cost more money, since it will be day spent flying from place to place with the Governor. Add these costs, and the hotel rooms and the travel to Iowa itself, this could easily be a $1500 expenditure on my own.

On caucus day a friend of mine will be following around who is a professional photographer, so we should get some good shots.

The good news is if it works out, I will be able to bring lots of coverage and live video since I will have constant internet access. Kavon has set up a really great site here but unfortunately neither Kavon nor myself are made of money. If you enjoy all the content here at Race42008, and would like to get some real in depth coverage and behind the scenes footage, then consider contributing. Anything unused will be saved and used for future event coverage, the site, or for the Convention.

You can contribute here and send payment to jasonpbonham@hotmail.com.

[Update]

Since I will be in Des Moines Tuesday night through Friday morning, if any of the other campaigns would like I am happy to do interviews of their guys here at Race42008. If any readers want to point me in the direction, let me know and I can try my best to work it out. As a matter of fact I am willing to leave today and cover another candidate if someone wants to pitch in for the additional costs and point me to the right campaign. Name the candidate and I will go to where I need to go.

A guest post by A. Harris, HucksArmy.com

Even though they are fierce rivals for the Republican nomination, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney have been, for a long time, two of my top choices: Huckabee number one. Romney number two or three. I have some concern over Romney’s position changes on abortion, gun control, the Bush tax cuts, etc… But for the sake of all of you who have traveled that well-beaten path many times already, I don’t want to question Romney’s sincerity here. Huckabee’s positions have simply been stronger and more consistent in those areas, and that’s why he has my support.

All that said, yesterday I was confronted with a startling revelation about Mitt Romney’s current position on gay rights. It is one, to be honest, that greatly concerns me. Not the least because his own experience as governor means that he should know better.

What am I talking about? Well, I refer to Romney’s continued support for employment non-discrimination laws for sexual orientation - laws that would prohibit discrimination based on “actual or perceived” sexual orientation. This is serious, my friends.

When he was running for Senate in 1994, Romney voiced his support for the Federal Employment Non-Discrimination Act (the strongly-opposed ENDA bill) in this interview:

Newspaper: Do you support the federal lesbian and gay civil rights bill that would ban anti-gay discrimination in employment, housing, public accommodations and credit?

Romney: This is Barney Frank’s legislation?

Newspaper: This is not just employment, but also housing, public accommodations and credit.

Romney: I am not fully aware of that bill, so I would need to study that more fully. I am aware of the legislation that Barney Frank proposed [the Employment Non-Discrimination Act] and do support that and would vote in favor of that.

[Interview with Senate Candidate Mitt Romney, Bay Windows, 8/25/94]

Source: http://www.democrats.org/a/2007/12/massachusetts_m.php

However, in a December 14, 2007 interview with Kathryn Jean Lopez of the National Review, Romney renounced his support for the federal act, providing many good reasons why:

Lopez: And what about the 1994 letter to the Log Cabin Republicans where you indicated you would support the Federal Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA) and seemed open to changing the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy in the military? Are those your positions today?

Romney: No. I don’t see the need for new or special legislation. My experience over the past several years as governor has convinced me that ENDA would be an overly broad law that would open a litigation floodgate and unfairly penalize employers at the hands of activist judges.

Source: http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MmY1MTQyMTk0Yjk2ZDNmZmVmNmNkNjY4ODExMGM5NWE=

Romney’s characterization of those laws - which as he says, he saw up-close in Massachusetts - is entirely accurate.

Similar laws on the books in 17 states are not only a threat to employers, but to religious freedom: effectively forcing businessmen, pastors, and/or leaders of religious organizations to hire persons engaged in lifestyles they believe are sinful.

It was these same non-discrimination laws that laid the groundwork for legalizing gay marriage in Massachusetts - and also forced Boston’s Catholic Charities to shut down its century-old adoption agency because it refused to place children in gay households against the teachings of the Catholic faith. There are many other examples.

So what is my concern about Romney? Well, whether you call it a flip, a flop, or a slip, just two days later on NBC’s Meet the Press, Governor “Should-Know-Better” Romney said that he does support non-discrimination laws for sexual orientation on the state level.

Here’s the transcript from MSNBC:

Russert: You said [in 1994] that you would sponsor [Sen. Ted Kennedy's federal] Employment Nondiscrimination Act. Do you still support it?

Romney: At the state level. I think it makes sense at the state level for states to put in provision of this.

Russert: Now, you said you would sponsor it at the federal level.

Romney: I would not support at the federal level, and I changed in that regard because I think that policy makes more sense to be evaluated or to be implemented at the state level.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22273924/page/6/

In case you missed it: Russert asked Romney if he still supported ENDA. Romney replied that he did support them at the state level. He said that implementing such laws “makes sense.”

Mitt, how could you? You’ve shown that you understand the problem conservatives have with these laws. You said that your own experience in Massachusetts showed you that those laws at the state level are bad news. Two days later you express your support.

I’m sorry, but if that is what Romney said – and the transcript and the video (see 2:34) show that it is – I cannot see how conservatives can trust him to be strong in standing against the homosexual agenda, I just can’t. I’ve been part of this battle in my own state, and this is serious.

If you are a Romney supporter, I ask you to not simply brush this off or just attack me for supporting Huckabee. I know our guys are in a fierce fight in Iowa, but like so many of us have said, this race is about the issues. Coming from a guy who wants to support the Republican nominee and who wants to like Romney, I’m asking you to take an honest look at what I’ve shared. This is something voters have to consider.

Rudy Giuliani

• Rudy’s National Campaign is Looking Good
  By Brent Seaborn
• AtlantiCam Interview with Mike DuHaime, Rudy Giuliani’s Campaign Manager
• The Resilient Society
  A blueprint for homeland security
  by Rudolph W. Giuliani
• Giuliani has the mettle to lead
• Giuliani: Looking Good?
• Examining Rudy Giuliani’s Strategy
• Giuliani tells GOP hopefuls to cease attacks
• Giuliani: Winning terror war biggest issue
• Campaigning down to the wire: Giuliani hits stock themes at local stop
• Fox News Video: Rudy on his Winning Strategy
  Mayor Giuliani tells Brett Baier of FOX News that his campaign is built for the long haul.
• Never Mind Those Early States, Giuliani’s ‘Looking Good’ For Feb. 5
• Fox News Video: Rudy on his Experience
  During a FOX News interview, Mayor Giuliani outlines his significant executive and leadership experience as 3rd highest ranking official in the Reagan Justice Department, as Mayor of New York and in international business.
• Peace through strength makes Giuliani the pick
• C-SPAN Video: Fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) in Clive, IA
• A Rare Giuliani Visit to Iowa
  Dan Balz talks about the Iowa campaign of Rudy Giuliani at the former New York mayor’s stop yesterday in Clive, Iowa
• Giuliani cuts a different path in White House race
• Rudy, in NH, Tries to Stay Above the Fray
• Giuliani steers clear of political fray
• Political People: Rudy Giuliani gives Iowans reality check
• Giuliani says background makes him stand-out
• Giuliani takes it down a notch
  As his campaign efforts focus on the later big-state primaries, he steps back and lets his rivals duke it out with their attack ads
• Giuliani graces Iowa with Prez-ence
• Giuliani; ‘Tested,’ ready to thwart terrorists
• Giuliani visits Iowa, talks on U.S. safety
  He’s not expected to do well in state
• Old Habits
  by Elizabeth Kolbert
• Giuliani Opts for Florida Sun Over Iowa’s Cold Shoulder
• Giuliani National Co-Chair Steve Forbes’ Interview With Wolf Blitzer
• Forbes: Magazines here to stay
  Media mogul praises Bono, Bush on taxes
• Giuliani to speak at GOP luncheon in Springfield

Mike Huckabee

• Will Huckabee’s Stunt Hurt Him? The Iowa Press Says… Probably Not.
• Scenes from the trail: Huckabee’s nutty New Year’s Eve
• Huckabee criticized on foreign policy statements