From CNN this evening:
CNN National Republican Primary (PDF warning)
- Giuliani – 24% (28)
- Huckabee – 22% (10)
- Romney – 16% (11)
- McCain – 13% (16)
- Thompson – 10% (19)
- Paul – 6% (5)
- Hunter – 2% (4)
- Tancredo – 1% (3)
Survey was conducted Dec 6-9 of 1,002 registered voters, and has an MoE of 3%.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:13 pm
Romney at 16%, up 5 points, and taken immediately after the speech. It looks like the speech accomplished some good.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:14 pm
Must be really frustrating, Dave, that Romney with about $75 million spent can’t poll in the 20s like Huckabee can with a song in and a prayer.
What’s the current Rombot line to explain THAT?
December 10th, 2007 at 6:18 pm
2 – I attribute that to the blind obedience of the butts in the pews
December 10th, 2007 at 6:19 pm
You know, when this election is all said and done, it’s going to make one hell of a book.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:20 pm
Look Rudy may actually his national front runner status, if this trend continues. I’m not a huge Huckabee fan, but I sure am a fan of seeing Rudy closed to being tied with.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:20 pm
4 – would you mind editing your comment to ‘heck’ instead of using such profanity. thanks
December 10th, 2007 at 6:22 pm
Lighten up Jeff…LJ you are correct it has been very interesting and is going to get even more so in the days to come.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:23 pm
Metro, you know that Pator Huckabee has his bretheren pastors out there pushing their man at church. Huckabee does enjoy more name recognition than Romney does, and it’s because Huckabee uses churches to promote his campaign.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:23 pm
…and Jeff I like you but with comments like that you sound like Huckananny.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:24 pm
#8, AMEN, PRAISE THE HUCKAPASTOR.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:25 pm
Greg, and YOU guys tell ME it’s not a problem to have religion play such a large role in our party’s politics?
Even though I hate it, it’s so damn nice to see it being used against Mitt now since he totally deserves it.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:29 pm
Metro man calm down!
Mitt’s a solid canidate. You’re unexplainable and intense hatred for him should only be reserved for Democratic canidates like Huckabee 
December 10th, 2007 at 6:34 pm
Metro,
It’s magnanimous of you to be concerned about the expenses of Mitt’s campaign. Personally, I think that the money that I, and those like me, have contributed to benefit our children’s future is money well spent. I’ll happily donate more, and I’m sure Mitt feels the same way about it. So, since I know that your main consideration is our well-being, just know that It tis a far nobler thing I do than I have ever done. Whatever it takes.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:36 pm
Metro, as much as you hate to admit it, Mitt’s record and positions are so much closer to mainstream American than are Huckabee’s. Huckabee must be brought down. He is totally taking Giuliani out of the race. Giuliani’s whole campaign strategy depends upon winning Florida. You know, as a Romney guy, it is almost preferential that Huckabee win Iowa, South Carolina and Florida. I used to think that Romney had to win Iowa, but not if Huckabee wins it. Huckabee can be Romney’s tool to take Giuliani out. Huckabee doesn’t play well everywhere, but Romney needs just to win just a coulle of early states to become the anti-Huck. I am not the only one saying this. Many are saying that Hukabee will take Giuliani right out of the race. Mitt’s path ot the presidency is clearer with Huckabee in there as opposed to Giuliani.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:38 pm
I really do think that Huckabee could be Romney’s tool to take Giuliani out. It is happening already. Mitt just needs to hang on to New Hampshire, and his lead thereis stillstrong and the people of that state are already casting vots.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:39 pm
New CBS national poll
Guiliani 22 (29)
Huckabee 21 (6)
December 10th, 2007 at 6:39 pm
Greg, um, every pundit and virtually every freaking commentator on this and other sites knows that Huck poses the much bigger problem for Romney, not Rudy.
If you’re going to assert the opposite as fact, I’d start by admitting virtually nobody agrees with you, and then I’d lay out a more detailed case.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:39 pm
Greg,
Nice points. That would work out well for Huck to win IA and FL. I still would like to see him take SC too. With Rudy out Mitt would own the rest of the east and destroy Huck in the west.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:42 pm
If you think it’s good for Romney for Huck to win FL, then I can guarantee you have not played around in Excel with a delegate spreadsheet like I have.
There is simply no way for Romney to come anywhere near the Huck or Rudy delegate counts if he does not win FL.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:42 pm
Metro, I didn’t get this on my own. I heard it on NPR radio today. The campaign is changing quickly. The pundit comments from a couple of weeks ago don’t mean much. Huckabee is taking Giuliani right out of the race for the White House. Right before your very eyes. Romney just needs to win New Hampshire, Nevada, Wyoming and maybe Michigan, and he and Huck will have split the early states. Two man race. This is a very strong possibility.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:45 pm
With Rudy out, Romney takes almost all of California. Hde takes Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, New mexico, , etc. It is set up as a very plausible scenario.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:46 pm
There’s nearly 2 months before FL for voters to find out all of Huck’s horrible problems. You’re projecting from the Huck bubble. (Thought you guys said it was about to burst?)
Even averaging the last 2 FL polls, Rudy’s at 31 and Huck 14.5. And that’s the peak of the bubble without voters being informed that Huck is a pro-life Liberal.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:46 pm
Romney takes almost all of California after losing?
Let’s get some smart and informed handicappers in here, please.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:46 pm
er, after losing FL
December 10th, 2007 at 6:48 pm
Romney plays very well here in California. He is a very polular man on the airwaves these days. Please dont use the RCP average in FLorida for Rudy. It makes you sound unintelligent given the recent rise. Let’s see what the reent polls say.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:48 pm
Florida and California are nothing alike.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:48 pm
Greg, notice I DIDN’T use the RCP avg for FL and instead used the 2 from last week, you know, when Huck was at his Rasmussen peak. Idiot.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:49 pm
And not a Rombot is saying that there will be no momentum effect from FL on CA?
Sleazy liar.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:49 pm
I believe he was saying after Rudy is out. Even I don’t think he will drop if he loses FL, so that’s not a particularly valid observation.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:49 pm
Romney’s going to open a landscaping compnay when he retires from politics in February. All legals.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:49 pm
Can we get some intellectual firepower AND intellectual honesty around here?
December 10th, 2007 at 6:52 pm
30, haha. would he make more money in the wake of his failed 08 run than Rudy has made off his businesses since september 11?
how would metro handicap that?
December 10th, 2007 at 6:52 pm
27, don’t call people idiots. that’s a mittbot tactic.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:54 pm
sampo, I don’t normally, but when I say “if you average the last 2 FL polls” and he comes right back saying I’m using the RCP average… what else do you call a person like that?
December 10th, 2007 at 6:54 pm
I just saw the Club for Growth commercial on National Television.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:57 pm
If you guys cannot see that Huckabee is driving Rudy out of the race, then nobody can help you. I have ready from more than one source that Huckabee is hurting Rudy much more than Mitt. Huckabee actually makes Mitt look very plausible to voters. I’m telling you if Huck wins Iowa, South Carolina and Florida while Mitt wins New Hampshire, Nevada, Wyoming and Michigan, Rudy is out. Rudy’s whole strategy depends upon Florida, and I can’t wait to see this week’s polls for Florida. I am suddenly liking this Huckabee strategy. It can really benefit Romney.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:58 pm
I do think Americans will start to cool on Huck after some education has taken place, but probably not until,after Rudy has been effectively driven out of the race.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:58 pm
the club for growth? isnt that the same club that booted lincoln chafee from office and gave control of the senate to the democrats in 06.
December 10th, 2007 at 7:00 pm
If Huck wins IA and SC, and Mitt wins NH, NV and MI (damnit WY is not a primary or caucus)….
Rudy wins FL. Split field. Small states split among small candidates. Republicans aren’t going to accept the winner of a Baptist/Mormon war, which is going on now. Also, this is a freakin WARTIME election, remember? Both Huck and Mitt are incredibly weak as strong military leaders, and Florida has 3 constituencies that are very big on that topic: active military, vets, and Cubans.
Not to mention they don’t know how horrible Huck is on most topics yet. Not to mention both Huck and Mitt have low ceilings due to insurmountable issues and have never polled at 60% in 2-man races or in combined 1st/2nd choices, like Rudy has.
December 10th, 2007 at 7:01 pm
Greg, when was the last time you checked the Intrade numbers?
December 10th, 2007 at 7:02 pm
This is further confirmation (as if we needed any) that we currently have a 4 man race, and Fred isn’t one of them. I’d say he has a matter of days to create a visible path to the nomination. He’s really the only one of the five that can’t write a plausible narrative for victory. South Carolina is already gone, and will be more gone after getting trounced by Huck in Iowa, and getting single digits in NH.
December 10th, 2007 at 7:04 pm
I could write scenarios for Fred, but they are all pretty longshot.
December 10th, 2007 at 7:10 pm
Metro,
I can envision scenarios where Mitt, Mike, John and Rudy win primaries. I can’t come up with any for Fred that doesn’t involve one or more other people dropping out.
December 10th, 2007 at 7:13 pm
Thought I’d share this interesting bit from the CNN internals.
Although you are a Republican or lean toward that party, suppose for a moment you could vote in the Democratic primaries next year. Which of the Democratic candidates do you think would make the best president if he or she won the general election in November… (they listed the names)
Dec. 6-9 2007
Obama 23%
Edwards 19%
Richardson 14%
Clinton 13%
Biden 9%
Dodd 5%
Gravel 4%
Kucinich 3%
No opinion 11%
December 10th, 2007 at 7:17 pm
My scenarios for Fred:
Expose Huck’s massive problems in IA to split Huck’s vote, moving over half of Huck’s voters and beating Huck. (That probably means Mitt wins.) Skip NH. Beat Huck in MI and/or NV. Win SC. Storyline: He’s the most viable anti-Rudy. He’s the guy most of us can live with, from all other camps. Prove he has the energy and drive and wit to win an election. And thus win FL.
Or, use the same strategy, but unable to win FL, rack up enough Southern delegates to force a brokered convention where he’s on the ticket, preferably heading it.
Or, perform even worse, but rack up some delegates along the way, hoping for a brokered convention in which he is the compromise candidate. A role he is eminently suited for, if he proves he can campaign.
Or, perform even worse and have enough delegates in a brokered convention to be a player and possibly choose the winner.
December 10th, 2007 at 7:18 pm
Re #44, that shows you how poorly informed Republican voters are, still.
December 10th, 2007 at 7:26 pm
Metro,
They will likely never be informed.
December 10th, 2007 at 7:37 pm
Metro – with all do respect you are a prick and bless your heart. Can we just skip Mitt commentary and just talk about economic issues so you can I can get along.
December 10th, 2007 at 7:47 pm
Metro,
Classic Metro shift of the focus from good news on Romney to, “Romney has spent soooooooo much money and is nowhere NEAR Huckabee”.
Can’t we just get along Metro??
Can’t we all just agree that Romney is starting to move up a bit in the polls now that “The Speech” has started to get some National Press?? The fact that Romney is now getting about 1/2 the media exposure that Huck is, he too is moving up in the national polls. There is no need to try and change the subject Metro! There is no need to detract from the fact that Romney is gaining ground nationally, while Huck is starting to decline after the media has realized the monster they have helped create. Can’t we just agree Metro, that Romney is a good man, who is starting to gain appeal nationally as well?? After it is all said and done, and Romney has won the nomination, then neither you or I will have to talk about how much money was spent in getting him there. The fact is the best man for the job will have won the GOP nod. And then we can all go and sip Caffeine Free soda (being that were Mormon and all) and watch Romney win the Presidency.
I know, I know, you are saying I sound like I am crazy. Welcome to how the world perceives you Metro when you get off on these froth at the mouth tantrums.
December 10th, 2007 at 7:49 pm
Jared, I would not support Mitt Romney, not vote for him, and would bad-mouth him to everyone in my circle of influence.
December 10th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
“Both Huck and Mitt are incredibly weak as strong military leaders”
And Rudy has some 4-Star Generals badge hidden somewhere?? C’mon Metro, your guy has just about the same credentials as our guy Romney. The fact that he directed traffic and kept spirits high after the tragedy of 9/11 doesn’t all of the sudden give Rudy “military” experience. See this is that, “frothing at the mouth” crazy-talk that gets you in trouble.
December 10th, 2007 at 8:00 pm
Jared, actually, I addressed that in detail yesterday. See:
#20, 22, 23, 32, 40, 44, 45
http://race42008.com/2007/12/09/iowa-debate-one-more-candidate-added-to-the-roster/
December 10th, 2007 at 8:00 pm
#50 – Cause that is the grown up thing to do right?? Your post makes it clear that you are a myopic RomNot who would cut your nose off to spite your face. Good luck with that.
December 10th, 2007 at 8:05 pm
#52 – Oh yeah those were those “moral clarity” posts you talked about. Lemme guess if this was the “moral clarity” you referred to.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IrE6FMpai8
OK, yeah sure. I can sorta make out some “moral clarity” there. Whatever.
December 10th, 2007 at 8:07 pm
I specified moral clarity in foreign policy, but yeah, why not sleaze it up and misrepresent me.
Regarding the video, I think it’s great. Have you never heard of theatre or humor? Must be a boring existence.
December 10th, 2007 at 8:09 pm
#55 – “why not sleaze it up and misrepresent me.”
You misrepresent Romney all the time. I guess turnabout is fair play . . or not.
December 10th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
Bad news for Pastor Mike.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1207/7302.html
December 10th, 2007 at 8:30 pm
Jared – Metro has the right to do whatever he wants when Romney wins the nomination. I would do everything he said if Rudy, Huck, or JMac were to win the nomination.
December 10th, 2007 at 8:31 pm
looks like romney’s speech really helped him out nationally. wow!
December 10th, 2007 at 8:49 pm
Doesn’t take much to please you. Five points is not insignificant, but Huckabee jumped 12 points without a speech.
December 10th, 2007 at 9:22 pm
Huckabee has gotten a tremendous amount of positive television coverage. If it were any more obvious I would be calling it a conspiracy, but it could be a coincidence in the type of candidate they support. The liberal media was backing Huckabee because a) they believe him to be the easiest to beat in the general, b) it keeps open the Guiliani path by keeeping Romney from running the table, c) if Huck manages to win it all, including the general, they win everywhere except for the abortion and gay rights issue.
December 10th, 2007 at 9:38 pm
Can people read?
Mike Huckabee is weak on crime, spending and immigration.
Does anybody remember for what this party stands?