GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Here it is: Huckabee way up, Giuliani down:
Survey USA South Carolina Republican Primary
- Huckabee - 30% (12)
- Romney - 19% (20)
- Thompson - 18% (18)
- Giuliani - 13% (26)
- McCain - 10% (14)
Survey was conducted Dec 7-9 of 587 likely primary voters.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:05 pm
No surprise here
December 10th, 2007 at 6:06 pm
Whew. As long as this horrible poll wasn’t going to be FL or MI or NV or NH.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:06 pm
what the hell happened to Rudy?
December 10th, 2007 at 6:08 pm
Huckabee takes from Rudy, leaving Romney and Thompson unscathed? Bizarre.
Did somebody leak a memo to 2/3’s of the primary voters that Rudy is pro-choice?
December 10th, 2007 at 6:09 pm
His campaign’s been on standby. Diminishing expectations. Letting a Baptist vs Mormon storyline develop, which will work to his advantage.
I’m guessing we’ll see a huge blitz of Rudy ads, endorsements, statements/promises/positions, all in the week before Xmas.
Just think of the negative attacks that could be run on him if he were leading the early states.
Perfect timing. And it only has to work in a single pre-FL state to guarantee FL in his corner.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:10 pm
The big surprise is how weak Rudy’s support appears to be in the south. I wouldn’t be surprised to see similar results in FL soon.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:10 pm
You beat me to it Matt!
If Guiliani has really seen half of his support evaporate in a month, then he’s in for a world of hurt. If he gets blown out in South Carolina what does that do for his already dwindling lead in Florida.
This poll is also ominous for John McCain. It’s the third SC poll in the past week that has his support at 10%. It makes me wonder if he’d even have enough momentum coming off of a win in NH to overtake Rudy, Romney, Thompson and Huckabee.
And finally, what if Huckabee wins Iowa, comes in third in NH, wins MI, NV and SC. He’d be the favorite to win FL and most of the Super Tuesday states.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:12 pm
I think it comes from the scrutiny over Kerik, the tax funds, etc…
December 10th, 2007 at 6:14 pm
Metro, you think an ad blitz the week before Christmas is perfect timing?
December 10th, 2007 at 6:15 pm
did you see rudy with russert yesterday? brutal
December 10th, 2007 at 6:16 pm
murphy, given that people talk politics at holiday gatherings, given the expectations game, given how it reduces negative attacks, and, especially, given that over half of early state voters don’t actually decide until the final week — what do you think?
December 10th, 2007 at 6:17 pm
I’ll give Huck IA and SC, Romney NH, WY, MI and Rudy still a good shot at FL due to the split in the early states.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:17 pm
Metro,
I like how your rhetoric has shifted over the past month.
At first it was: “Rudy only needs to win one pre-FL state to win FL and the nomination.”
Then it was: “Even if Rudy loses all of the pre-FL states, he still wins FL and the nomination.”
Now it’s: “Even if Rudy loses all the early states (including FL), but wins the Super Tuesday states he still wins the nomination.”
By next week it’ll be: “Even if Rudy loses all the early states and most of the Super Tuesday states, he’ll still win the nomination.”
December 10th, 2007 at 6:19 pm
Metro, by the time Christmas rolls around you’ll be telling us that early January is the perfect time for an ad blitz. Brilliant timing, in fact.
I think most people are busy traveling and buying toy trains the week before Christmas.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:20 pm
11- metro you cack me up - Rudy is at his lowest level of national support ever and tanking everywhere and yet you still think he will blow everyone away with some incredible thing nobody has heard the week before christmas. Got to hand it to you - you are an optimist.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:20 pm
Given Huckabee’s rise, his 18 point gain isn’t that surprising. The fact that Romney only loses 1 point while Rudy loses 13 shows that it’s not just Fred that Huckabee is taking votes from. My guess is that’s it’s the electability issue and people’s desire to go with a winner. Electability was the only logical reason Rudy maintained as much support in the South as he did, for as long as he did. It shows the power of momentum.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:21 pm
Jack, you left out NV.
Also, why the hell are people talking about WY? It’s not a popular vote. It’s 12 of their 30 delegates being awarded by state party officials at a convention. It will have no impact on the race.
LJ, actually, it’s never changed. It’s always been he needs 1 pre-FL state to GUARANTEE FL. But that he could still pull of FL without any wins and a split field. I grant you I later calculated he could still be the dominant force in a brokered convention if he lost FL.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:22 pm
murphy, you really think the guy is sitting on all those millions and isn’t going to run ads? Really?
December 10th, 2007 at 6:22 pm
guys obama might win and he may be harder to beat thin hillary.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/12/10/mccain-versus-clinton-%e2%80%a6-or-obama/
December 10th, 2007 at 6:23 pm
steve, that goes for you, too.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:23 pm
Rudy can take Obama, but Mitt would be decimated by him.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:25 pm
Hmmm this is really bizzare I thought Huck would take away from Mitt and Thompson.
I’m very surprised by that but not surprised by Huck’s surge in SC. Like I said he has a lot of momentum going for him and I’m very worried..he needs to be stopped!
December 10th, 2007 at 6:25 pm
Polls like this are really tremendously bad news for Rudy, in a way that doesn’t affect the other candidates. While all the candidates have their “themes”, only Team Rudy has so much momentum built behind the idea that he’s a winner at the polls.
Take popular support away, McCain is still a war hero, Romney’s still a turnaround specialist, Huckabee is still a social conservative. And yes, Rudy is still the guy who cleaned up NYC, but he’ll have taken a dent on a major theme of his appeal.
How silly is his 49 state strategy going to sound to someone who is tuning into the race now to see him lose the first 7 primary states?
December 10th, 2007 at 6:26 pm
ok, so it’s a doctored TPM video, but seriously the guy looks like he’s running for class clown and not president. a lot of people tuned in to see how rudy would do in a tough interview. i for one didn’t like what I saw, and i liked what he said even less…
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/060715.php
December 10th, 2007 at 6:27 pm
murphy, it’s been referred to as a 50-state strategy or 48-state strategy.
Or do you know both those facts and are averaging them?
December 10th, 2007 at 6:28 pm
Love the spin Metro. I am sure when Rudy loses one or more of FL or MI or NV or NH, you will have some creative spin there too. Maybe they can change the laws to if Rudy wins in FL he automatically wins the nomination. Love the…”this horrible poll” remark too. Don’t you always get on the Rombots for this kind of talk. Oh the irony! Love it!
December 10th, 2007 at 6:30 pm
Erik,
If your brain was capable of logic, you’d see I’d allowed for Rudy to lose those states. Why would my story change, then?
Unlike Rombots I can admit to a horrible poll. It could even be an outlier but notice that isn’t my first response, as it is with Rombots? Notice I can take the worst-case scenario, admit it, and still integrate it into my theory?
Nah, probably not. Too brain damaged from religion.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:31 pm
Metro,
I never said Rudy wouldn’t run ads. I just think an ad blitz should have happened already, or will happen in January, but not during Christmas.
Rudy’s in a tough spot. What reasonable course of action can he take? Run ads and lose? Or give up early so as to avoid the appearance of losing, and concentrate on Feb 5?
All those millions Rudy has won’t make a dent against a month worth of loser press and other similarly well funded candidates.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:32 pm
murphy, I was right about Mitt/Huck and I’ll be right about Rudy, too.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:35 pm
Metrodomis,
Who is going to win the world Series next year? I have to get my money down now! BTW you never dmit to a bad poll unless it involves a slight against your guy. Merry Christmas from all us brain damaged religious people.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:35 pm
#30 dmit=admit
December 10th, 2007 at 6:36 pm
Actually, I’m a lot better handicapper than most of you think.
I traded all the candidates all year on Intrade, both long and short for many of the candidates, and my profit PER candidate ranges from negative 15 bucks on one candidate to thousands in profits on others.
I was never really wrong on any candidate at any time.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:36 pm
Rudy’s numbers in SC has varied from 9 to 23 in the polls taken during the last two weeks. 3 polls released last week showed two 17 and one 12. This poll tells nothing new and may not even be a good sample. Look at the internals: we see that 44% of Huckabee supporters label themselves following a liberal ideology.
A Surveyusa poll in FL showed Huck at 18,but a Quinnipiac poll for the same period showed him at 12.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:37 pm
What do you mean I admit to a bad poll if it involves a slight against my guy?
I accept the polls as they come, and rely on the averages mostly. I rely on some pollsters far more than others whom are suspect.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:42 pm
I don’t think this is the end of Rudy, since confused former Huckabee supporters won’t know what the heck they are going to do in 1 month.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:43 pm
Metro,
I mean that the only time you are willing to come out and say that a poll sucks is when it is bad for Rudy. Simple.
BTW…I hope you are putting those skills to the test in the real world. Would be a shame if you worked at the Burger King.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:47 pm
Erik, when did I say a poll sucks?
December 10th, 2007 at 6:48 pm
When I said “this horrible poll” I was referring to the leak early today about the horrible poll for Rudy that was coming out in one of the early states. So that’s why I used that language — this was the “horrible poll.”
December 10th, 2007 at 6:56 pm
Once again, Romney’s numbers hardly change, Giuliani’s soft support moved over to become Huckabee’s soft support. What’s going to happen when Huck gets roated in the next debate?
December 10th, 2007 at 7:05 pm
#38 Metro,
If you were meaning that this was a “horrible poll for Rudy then you did a poor job articulating it in your first post. That said, it is a horrible poll…for Rudy.
December 10th, 2007 at 7:17 pm
#39 bjalder26
What’s going to happen when Huck gets roated in the next debate?
I assume you mean routed by the moderator. So far Huck has been able to escape the debates being viewed as one of the better performers. Unless the moderator presses Huck on all these recent news stories, we are all going to be Stuckabee’d.
December 10th, 2007 at 7:21 pm
In many ways, Huckabee reminds me of Jimmy Carter.
(1) Governor of a Southern State.
(2) Lets his feelings and emotions rule him more than hard facts.
(3) Convinced he is right and everyone else is wrong.
(4) Identity politics.
(5) A populist.
(6) Never admits to a mistake.
(7) Comes out of nowhere from far back to take the lead.
(8) Would rather raise taxes than cut spending.
(9) Has a thin skin.
Do we really want another Jimmy Carter?
December 10th, 2007 at 8:37 pm
metro, what do you think about the two new national polls. only two people showing momentum upward. mitt and huck.
also a thirteen point stumble to ad to the stumble in iowa and new hampshire can’t be good news. this together with his dwindling national numbers is bad news for giuliani. mitt remains strong in nh, is competive in sc and may be able to pull of something in iowa with his deep organization. don’t forget his piles of money as well. i am suprised he hasn’t started advertising in nevada yet?
December 10th, 2007 at 8:38 pm
it is true about hucks picking up the soft support that has been vascilating around. Things could definetly change. still extremly fluid at this point. despite my earlier comments, it is anybody race to be honest.
December 10th, 2007 at 8:51 pm
#42 - NO!
December 10th, 2007 at 8:51 pm
Not so fast Huckaboos,
These polls were taken BEFORE the media started exposing Hucks whole record.
Todays Rasmussen tracking poll shows Huck falling back and Rudy regaining his footing.
Let’s see if Huck can hold up under the barrage of bad publicity. He has no money or organization to keep himself going beyond Iowa.
We’ll see if he is just the “flavor of the month” or the real deal.
My money is still on Rudy. We’ll see.
December 10th, 2007 at 10:46 pm
I watched the whole interview with Russert too. It was enough to turn a guys stomach. I’ve never liked Rudy because I’ve never trusted him, and that interview cause me to trust him even less. He’s a weasel….to be honest, I believe he had been drinking a little before the interview….and it showed.