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Power outages beset Iowa today, as the harsh winter showcased itself. So probably a fair number of Iowans didn’t see today’s debate. That’s a shame, because today “harsh winter” described both the state of Iowa’s climate, and the performance of her near favorite son. Maybe it was the format, which didn’t easily allow for sermonizing. Maybe it was the audience which, well, seemed to barely exist at times; a hard situation for a pastor used to playing off the crowd. Or maybe it was the meat and bones of the questions that have finally, FINALLY showed up in a debate. Whatever the cause, Mike Huckabee did not have a good day. Which is odd, because he probably should have. He wasn’t attacked, though his statements of the last few weeks might have warranted such treatment. Far from being treated as the front-runner, the moderator seemed to handle Huck with kid gloves. And they finally talked about health care and education, two issues that Huckabee’s seemed to eager to discuss.
The ingredients were there, but you got the feeling that Huckabee didn’t have any recipe at hand. He rambled incoherently when asked to explain two policies his faith would lead him to change. He seemed evasive when confronted with his interest in mandates to achieve energy independence. And during a quiz on health-care, he sounded remarkably like a Democrat with attacks on the “gold-plate” health plans of Senators, and his insistence on “equality” in health care. The schtick wore thin, seemingly even for those who didn’t come into the debate disliking Huckabee. He didn’t have a disastrous performance, and he’s unlikely to bleed substantial support, but he needed to do considerably better with all of the negative press he’s had of late.
Who won then? Mitt and Fred. Fred and Mitt. Both candidates sounded substantive, calm, analytical and thoroughly prepared. Fred’s refusal to raise his hand was perhaps the highlight of an otherwise boring debate. I agree with Erick at Redstate; had this Fred shown up 4 months ago, he’d be the prohibitive favorite. Only time will tell if his awakening has come too late. Mitt seemed thoroughly at ease, and delivered only 1 or 2 canned answers (the plea to Iowans for instance). Beyond these minor mis-steps, Romney never touched ground after his impressive take-off.
Oddly enough, despite having perfectly respectable performances, Rudy and McCain might well come out the losers of the evening. Neither candidate has managed to draw positive press in weeks. McCain’s been dropping below 10% in some national polls, and he did nothing to help himself in NH. I really get the feeling that McCain has almost entirely been written out of the campaign narrative, and I’m not sure how he reclaims the spotlight. Rudy, for perhaps the first time this year, seemed unnecessary; at times he came across as a nearly second-tier candidate. He made no big mistakes, but I honestly can’t remember one answer he gave.
Where does this leave us? Well, more or less in the same place. For now anyway. Huckabee’s didn’t seem like a serious candidate today, but that meme has been building for two weeks. It would have likely continued even if Huck had an above average performance. Rudy needs to find a way to bring his name back up, without mention of affairs or suspect billing practices. But, that’s not much of a change. Romney continues his string of good news (the Speech, the NR endorsement, etc) and probably comes out of the debate with a little mo’. Fred had a good day, and he’ll benefit from today’s debate if anyone does. But, the debate was probably more notable for what didn’t happen; no one was mauled. No candidacy burst into flames, no phoenixes rose from the ashes; or at least not very far from the ashes. And so we’ve probably passed the last real chance for big shifts before Iowa (though Romney’s Meet the Press might be intriguing). The die has been cast. We’re just waiting to see which face points upward.
December 12th, 2007 at 6:17 pm
So if Fred goes up in Iowa who does he take support from? Romney or Huckabee. I hope Fred is to Huckabee as Huckabee is to Romney. A Spoiler, and a win for Fred is actually a win for Romney
December 12th, 2007 at 6:17 pm
“And so we’ve probably passed the last real chance for big shifts before Iowa ”
I agree with everything but this statement. I think we are still going to see Huckabee shift down a bit based on all the negative vetting he continues to get.
December 12th, 2007 at 6:20 pm
I thought Huckabee had a very good debate. Romney seemed stiff…..
December 12th, 2007 at 6:20 pm
huckabee was supposed to be the “real” fred thompson. well , we saw the real fred thompson today, and if the real fred thomspon is here to stay, then there is no need for a lame impersonation of him. worst of luck to you mike huckabee!
December 12th, 2007 at 6:22 pm
Your bias against Giuliani is comical.
December 12th, 2007 at 6:25 pm
I just don’t get it….we’ve seen time and time again that NOBODY EXCEPT RUDY AND MCCAIN CAN EVEN COME CLOSE TO BEATING HILLARY!!!!! Why is everybody in the blogosphere so starstruck by romney/huck/fred. People…..do you actually think they could defeat a dem in 08?? IF you do, you are truly kidding yourselves. They are all great guys and good conservatives….but all un-electable. Im not saying that RG of Jmac are sure bets….but they are muc much much much BETTER bets. A Nomination of mitty-huck-thompson is a coronation of HRC….or Iraq hussein Osama!!
December 12th, 2007 at 6:28 pm
Nice thorough assessment of the debate.
6. We’re still in a vaccuum here in the primaries – don’t get so bent out of shape… let the process run its course.
December 12th, 2007 at 6:28 pm
I agree that Fred & Mitt were clearly the winners, in no particular order. Speaking of Iowa only, I do think that Fred will show a definite uptick in his numbers, especially since his performance was so unexpected. Romney will gain a bit and Huck will have a decided downtick, not only due to his performance this afternoon, but also all the negatives swirling around him for the last week.
MTP on Sunday is going to be interesting.
December 12th, 2007 at 6:28 pm
#6 – I personally believe that head to head polls matching up republicans and democrats are useless at this stage in the process. whoever gets the nomination has a whole year to win or lose an election. Organization, money, staying gaffe free, and many other things play into this. Also, those numbers become closer when it becomes a one on one battle. Finally, you are looking at popular vote polls, which we often need to remind our democratic friends, is not how we elect presidents in this country.
December 12th, 2007 at 6:31 pm
davew,
I wish that I thought McCain had a serious chance of winning the nomination, but I don’t. And I was evaluating the debate performances; not my order of preferences. That would probably look a good deal different my ordering for the debate:
1. Fred/Mitt
3. Rudy
4. Huck
5. McCain
December 12th, 2007 at 6:32 pm
#6, the Dems learnt in 2004 that picking someone for their electability is not a good idea. Best to pick a candidate you agree with, and let the rest follow its course.
December 12th, 2007 at 6:34 pm
#6, also, it is impossible to know what the big issues will be leading up to the 2008 election. any number of events: terrorism, stock market boom or crash, capture of bin laden, etc. could change the public feelings. it is foolish to pick your candidate based on how people feel right now, it is best to pick the candidate you feel best to handle any an all things that can be thrown at this country.
December 12th, 2007 at 6:43 pm
#6 Keep in mind too that the nation as a whole (which is what these general election matchups are polling) only knows anything significant about a few candidates at this stage. Hillary – former first lady, the second coming of Bill. Obama – the black guy, and the un-Hillary. Giuliani – Sept 11th. McCain – the maverick from 2000, the GWB we could/should have voted for. Other than those 4, the general public has little knowledge or interest in the primary season. As mentioned above – just give it time to settle and then check the polls. Note that Hillary, against anyone (even Ron Paul) barely cracks 50% on a good day. As a party, we’re in great shape.
December 12th, 2007 at 6:51 pm
Huck Sucked
December 12th, 2007 at 6:51 pm
I am a die hard McCain supporter and I still say that we are in it to win it. I believe that Senator John McCain is the most over-qualified and intelligent candidate and has more knowledge concerning any subject that is contained within the walls of government than all the other candidates combined.that is my story and i am sticking to it.
December 12th, 2007 at 6:57 pm
#15 – That is exactly why he wont get the nomination. Hes been in polotics way too long and done way to little for the conservative movement.
December 12th, 2007 at 7:05 pm
The Iowan on FOX who said the Huckaboom was the Huckabomb looked just like the geeky guy on Friends. But he’s still my hero.
December 12th, 2007 at 7:05 pm
#15 – no doubt hes a good candidate, but he hasn’t run a good campaign. for better or worse, in this country, we reward those that run the most efficient and effective campaigns, not the best qualified.
December 12th, 2007 at 7:15 pm
Romney made his hundreds of millions of dollars by buying companies from people who knew more about them than anybody on the planet and who thought they were going down. He paid more for them than anybody on the planet was willing to pay. His average return on investment was more than 100% a year for 18 consecutive years. He started out managing $36 million that it took him a solid year to raise. He ended up managing close to $5 Billion. He put together an organization, and an investment and management strategy, that today manages more than $40 Billion.
Having made more money than he could spend in 100 lifetimes, he turned to public service. He was drafted as the one man who could save the 2002 Olympics, and he turned a massive deficit into a massive surplus and put on the most successful Olympic games in history. When he was elected Governor of Massachusetts, he faced a $3 Billion deficit 6 months into the fiscal year and a constitutional mandate to balance the budget. He balanced it without raising taxes, and despite 19 additional tax cuts he was able to ram through the Democrat legislature, he left them with a better than $1 Billion surplus which they, of course, subsequently squandered.
There is only 1 question left to be answered in this campaign. Mitt wants to clean up the mess in Washington by ending the waste, fraud, duplication, and abuse. The question is: Do we let him? The alternative is to learn to love the mess.
December 12th, 2007 at 7:16 pm
15 – that’s why McCain should be considered as a VP spot
December 12th, 2007 at 7:27 pm
This analysis is wrongheaded because with about three weeks to go, and this being the last debate, someone if not all of them needed to go after Huckabee. The status quo favors him. Therefore, while they had nice performances, its impossible to score Romney or Thompson winners.
The format was tough, admittedly. But just as Thompson asserted himself declaring “no hand shows,” someone should have taken charge and changed the debate. To me, other than that Thompson moment, they all seemed weak.
December 12th, 2007 at 7:34 pm
I think people started to see that Huck doesn’t have much of a platform, and people really do vote on the issues at the end of the day. There are still three more weeks for Huck to rise or fall. I think people have already seen the best of Mike Huckabee. Even if he wins Iowa, I see a steady decline for him as the primaries wear on. Romney has been looking good lately.
December 12th, 2007 at 7:38 pm
Feltcher #21,
I wouldn’t interpret the phrase “he won the debate” to mean anything more than what it says. You seem to want it to mean “he won the debate well enough to turn the tide”.
Romney and Thompson, by an overwhelming consensus, performed better than the rest. I would call that a win, and I don’t know if it’s enough.
December 12th, 2007 at 7:46 pm
DaveW (#6) IT IS BECAUSE MOST DO NOT KNOW ROMNEY OR FRED.
Have you ever watch a tv game show? You know, where people often said the answer feel right to them. It is exactly what the match polls are about — what feel right to you, and what does feel right to you is one you are most familiar with. Sorry, Mitt and such did not do as well as Rudy and McCain because they do not have the national ID that they two do. But as have been shown in this race the past year, you can only go up.
December 12th, 2007 at 7:48 pm
19
All hail Mitt, SAVIOR OF THE OLYMPICS!!!!
December 12th, 2007 at 7:48 pm
#15 – he does not know more than the others combined. Nice try, though. Keep telling yourself that on 01/09/08 when he drops out. He might be a good man, but he flipped the conservatives off one too many times.
December 12th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
Dave (#19), there’s an article out today where his former employees at Bain Capital claim Mitt could have walked away with billions! He only took enough for his needs, and left the rest for his company with no expectation to see them ever again. So, even if Mitt is only worthy 250 millions, he’s actually worthy billions.
December 12th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
Is anyone listening to Huck starting to hear this class Redford line?
“Ladies and gents. The time has passed. The time has passed. Got to be a better way. I say to you, can’t any longer, oh no, can’t any longer, play off black against old, young against poor.
This country cannot house its houseless. Feed its foodless. They’re demanding a government of the people. Peopled by people. Our faith. Our compassion. Our courage on the gridiron. The basic
indifference that made this country great.”
http://www.enotes.com/famous-quotes/ladies-and-gents-the-time-has-passed-the-time-has
December 12th, 2007 at 7:58 pm
I don’t think McCain is out of it. He’s starting to show some signs in NH. He wins NH, his national numbers will improve. The last 6 months he’s been between 10 and 17 percent in the RCP averages. To break out of that, he needs to show Republican primary voters he’s the most electable. A win gives him the opportunity to broadcast that message.
December 12th, 2007 at 8:00 pm
This debate is irrelevant. No one watched it, it made all the candidates seem very small. The only reason Fred “won” was because he showed up for the first time. Please, Huck has a 15 point lead, it’s not going anywhere, Iowa is a wrap folks.
December 12th, 2007 at 8:02 pm
SGS,
Given that I never supply links, it’s something I usually never ask for, but do you have a link? He’s given away vast sums of money in his life and provided hundreds of thousands of hours of free service (I actually did the math). His parents were affluent, but when he received his inheritance, he donated it to charity. He didn’t take (or keep) his salary from the Governorship or the Olympics. The church never paid him for his 2 years as a missionary or his many years of laboring in his church callings as Stake President, Bishop, etc. All Hail Mitt, for real.
December 12th, 2007 at 8:06 pm
Fred’s “no hand shows” line may be seen as the historical turning point of this campaign. Senator Thompson is a seasoned campaigner with a depth of experience to realize that these campaigns are all about pacing. Fred knows that the road to the Presidency is lined with the campaign carcasses of candidates who flamed out too soon. Fred, with his absolutely Reaganesqu performance today, has just prefigured how he plans to come out fighting with the bold conservatism he showcased today these next few weeks and usher in the dawning of the age of Frederalism.
December 12th, 2007 at 8:08 pm
Dave, the article was quoted in part on this site today. I’ll point you toward it.
http://race42008.com/2007/12/12/the-house-that-mitt-built/
December 12th, 2007 at 8:48 pm
PeterS -
Let me introduce you to some of us RomBots who claimed the same thing a few months ago (I don’t remember who they were but Metro says it happened). I would advise you not to count your chickens quite yet.
December 12th, 2007 at 8:53 pm
Irish,
A few months ago was a few months ago. What with Christmas and New Years, the caucus might as well be ten days away. The point I was making was that this joke debate isn’t going to flip a 15 point lead.
December 12th, 2007 at 9:22 pm
Peter S,
You don’t seem to be up on current events. The last poll showed Huck with a 5 point lead, not a 15 point lead. He’s now at 30%, not 39%, which means that he’s heading down, not up. Meanwhile, Romney is at 25%, with the ability to climb into the 30’s as the Huck-A-Bust accelerates.
December 12th, 2007 at 9:44 pm
Newsweek: Huck +22
Rasmussen: Huck +16
Mason-Dixon: Huck +12
SV: Huck +5
Average: Huck +13.7
Sorry, I was 1.3% off. My bad Dave, even still Iowa is a wrap
December 13th, 2007 at 12:11 am
[...] Matthew Miller: Who won then? Mitt and Fred. Fred and Mitt. Both candidates sounded substantive, calm, analytical and thoroughly prepared. Fred’s refusal to raise his hand was perhaps the highlight of an otherwise boring debate. [...]
December 13th, 2007 at 4:14 am
[...] an interesting post today on The Final FlurryHere’s a quick [...]
December 13th, 2007 at 8:42 am
[...] Matthew Miller: Who won then? Mitt and Fred. Fred and Mitt. Both candidates sounded substantive, calm, analytical and thoroughly prepared. Fred’s refusal to raise his hand was perhaps the highlight of an otherwise boring debate. [...]