Market Resource Group Michigan GOP Primary
- Mike Huckabee 22%
- Mitt Romney 21%
- John McCain 14%
- Rudy Guiliani 9%
- Fred Thompson 5%
- Ron Paul 3%
Among all possible voters
- John McCain 21%
- Mitt Romney 18%
- Mike Huckabee 16%
- Rudy Giuliani 8%
- Fred Thompson 5%
- Ron Paul 4%
Voters were asked if they would vote in either the Democrat or Republican primary. 240 Republicans, Independents, and Democrats said that they might vote in the GOP primary. Of these voters, 132 said they were certain to vote in the GOP primary.
Remember that because Michigan has an open primary and only Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich will be on the Democratic ballot, there will be an large degree of crossover. This poll, even with the small sample, shows that McCain still retains a large degree of independent support. That could be key to winning Michigan on January 15th.
December 14th, 2007 at 3:44 pm
How embarrassing to Mccain. He gets a major boost in polls when liberals are included. It demonstrates how soft he is on core conservative principles. It’s similar to how the fact that the liberal media has fallen in love with Huckabee creates a major red flag to how conservative he really is.
December 14th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
Hello, LJ-
I agree with you that this is good news for McCain, especially in a state where he’s not going to be spending much time for a while. It mirrors what happened in 2000, when he was able to draw significant support from Dems and Inds, and win that way. He caught a huge break with the Democratic primary being rendered essentially meaningless due to who’s on the ballot and who’s not…
December 14th, 2007 at 3:49 pm
I’d be pretty sad if my candidate rested his hopes and dreams on the votes of bored liberals.
December 14th, 2007 at 3:53 pm
Michigan has a disproportionate amount of conservative Democrats. I would anticipate that base Democratic voters will still vote in their own primary, anyhow.
December 14th, 2007 at 3:55 pm
This is good news for Mitt and bad for Rudy.
Mitt is still within striking distance and early victories + his organization can lead him to victory here!
December 14th, 2007 at 3:57 pm
Isn’t the real news once again Rudy’s collapse?
December 14th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
#6 Steve-
You make a good point, in that I’d think that Giuliani would be doing better in Michigan (a lot of Reagan Democrats in a northern state, in a primary where anyone can vote). Although he has the money to be competitive here – if he starts running ads, as he can easily afford to do, he should start to rise…
December 14th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
steve,
Yup. This is not just a Rasmussen phenomenon. Rudy Giuliani is practically on life support everywhere. By the way, Mitt just went on the air in Michigan 2 days ago. So look for those numbers to move.
December 14th, 2007 at 4:27 pm
This has been a disastrous day of polling for Rudy. His “big state” strategy is falling apart.
Meanwhile, Huckabee leads both North and South. If there is to be a stop Huckabee campaign, your guys best shot is in New Hampshire. After that, Huck could finish first in Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida, with a strong second in Nevada.
That would pretty much be game, set, match.
I wish this Michigan poll had pitted Huckabee and Romney head to head, like the New Hampshire poll did.
December 14th, 2007 at 4:32 pm
Ouch! This is supposedly Rudy’s state! Rudy’s RCP Average is 22.5, 2.2 points ahead of Mitt and 11.3 points ahead of McCain! And here he’s in fourth place!
December 14th, 2007 at 4:40 pm
Independents are not liberals in Michigan. They are mostly pro-life conservatives from Macomb County and Northern Michigan. They were called Reagan Democrats and their support didn’t harm Reagan much…..
December 14th, 2007 at 4:48 pm
It looks more likely every day that Rudy is losing ground.
And before I continue, a declaimer – I know the race change daily. There are still “MetroRepublican” surprises to come. But let’s for today’s sake look at this race as it presently stands.
Suppose we have the primaries today, and he does as well as his current RCP average in Iowa, at 4th place, and NH, at 3rd place, 4th in SC, and if this polls is not an outlier, 3rd/4th place in Michigan, do some of us still think he can survive the Florida contest? Again, other than the candidates dropping out or any of the pending surprises, how may he survive until then?
December 14th, 2007 at 5:36 pm
How good of a poller is Market Resource Group? All I know is that they’re better then ARG (i.e. better then a random number generator)…
December 14th, 2007 at 5:40 pm
Poor Metro. This is a Rudy bust.