GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
- Mike Huckabee 27% (9%)
- Mitt Romney 23% (19%)
- Rudy Giuliani 19% (27%)
- Fred Thompson 9% (16%)
- John McCain 6% (10%)
- Ron Paul 4% (5%)
- Some other candidate 2% (2%)
Just 49% of voters are “certain” they will vote for their current favorite when the election actually rolls around.
Second Choice
- Rudy Giuliani 18%
- John McCain 16%
- Mitt Romney 15%
- Mike Huckabee 13%
- Fred Thompson 12%
If voters do change their mind, Giuliani narrowly tops the list as a second choice. Among those who say there is a good chance they could change their mind, Giuliani is an even stronger second choice preference.
Favorable Rating
- Mitt Romney 74%
- Rudy Giuliani 69%
- Mike Huckabee 68%
- Fred Thompson 64%
- John McCain 57%
- Ron Paul 23%
Survey of 685 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted December 13. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 18 are in parentheses.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:09 am
Firewall? hehe
December 14th, 2007 at 11:09 am
Romney within MOE = NICE!!!
An ok speech by Rudy on Sat and a solid performance by Romney on Meet the Press should give Romney the momentum he needs to win this.
I hope Rudy people would be more willing to support Romney over Huck.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:09 am
Huckabee= wow!
December 14th, 2007 at 11:10 am
Stunning!
December 14th, 2007 at 11:12 am
Wow. What a move. Rudy’s certainly not dead yet, but his chance to get to a majority of delegates before the convention is taking a severe hit.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:13 am
It’s time to upate the power rankings. Here is my suggested list
1(tie): Huck, Mitt
2. Rudy
3. McCain
4-whatever; don’t matter
December 14th, 2007 at 11:14 am
Rudy is far from dead, and it would be idiotic to assume so.
McCain is a nut and will likely support Rudy and possibly make a Giuliani/McCain ticket!
December 14th, 2007 at 11:15 am
You know what that piss-ant mccain is going to do when he has to drop out after NH–endorse HUCKABEE. That is my prediction–he seems to stick it in the eyes of true conservatives time and again.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:15 am
Can we now say that Giuliani is finished…
December 14th, 2007 at 11:16 am
7, carl -
One thing that you can take to the bank … he won’t back Romney
December 14th, 2007 at 11:20 am
And Irish…Why DOES McCain hate Romney so much? (which he does)
Your Thoughts….
December 14th, 2007 at 11:22 am
I think the writing is on the wall….Romney is the only candidate who can stop Huckabee from gaining momentum in those early states and eventually gain the nomination, which would be disaterous to our party! As much as I like Rudy, he just can’t do it. He does not have the influence in those early states to stop the Criminal Excusing Huckabee from taking it all.
I think NOW is the time that all the Rudy-ites need to group behind Romney and get him the nomination. If you wait until after Iowa and South Carolina, it may already be too late.
Go Mitt ‘08!
December 14th, 2007 at 11:23 am
Has Metro chimed in yet about the Firewall?? Just curious.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:25 am
Romney is having a heckuva last couple of weeks, in the face of bad news for Rudy, McCain, and Fred. 74% favorability in Florida, compared to 69% for Rudy, is stunningly good.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:26 am
Wow! Huckabee might be the best thing that ever happened to Romney. Huckabee has little if any presence in Florida. With a decent showing in Iowa and a huge bounce in New Hampshire… Mitt might be able to take this thing staight out.
Will Iowa be the Values Voters Straw Poll Take 2? Where the evangelical vote goes for Huckabee but the superior strategy and ground game of Romney edges him out? And then edges him out again in the press?
December 14th, 2007 at 11:26 am
It would be foolish to say anything to the effect that Rudy is dead, or done. But I think that in his effort to re-write the way that elections are won in the U.S., he is learning that it is not wise to us the GOP primaries as a testing ground for strategy.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:26 am
I just think it has to do with McCain’s personality and I’ll leave it at that.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:26 am
I think if nothing else, Rudy guys ought to be rooting for Mitt in the early states. It’s simply absurd to think that Rudy can hang on if Huck wins in Iowa, Nevada, Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:27 am
Where’s Metro?, He needs to explain the Rudy-Bust.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:27 am
How can Huck and Rudy take turns at the top in Florida? They are the complete OPPOSITE!!!
This does not make sense. The electorate does not know what they are doing. This is why the early states play a role because the later states don’t do any research. They just pick who is the most popular at the time.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:28 am
Jared,
I agree. Rudy’s not out of this by a longshot, but he needs to stop playing coy on Huckabee NOW, or his path to the nomination vanishes in smoke.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:31 am
LOL Giuliani’s lead in FL in the RCP avg is 17 pts!
December 14th, 2007 at 11:31 am
Matthew,
Do you think that the reason that Rudy has not gone after Huckabee is because he is afraid that, in turn, his attacking Huckabee would benefit Romney more?
December 14th, 2007 at 11:31 am
I think the most telling change of this race is shown right on this site. Where are the Rudy guys? I don’t mean on this post, but in general. 4 months ago, the posters here were divided roughly 55% Romney and 30% Rudy. Over the last few weeks, it’s been 55% Romney, 10% Rudy, and 35% Huck.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:32 am
#21 - I agree, he has let Huckabee do his bidding in IA, and now the proverbial “beast” has turned on it’s “master”. Maybe this poll will help him realize what he has helped to create. HIS downward spiral. Maybe with a Fred assault in IA/SC, and a Rudy assault in FL, Huckabee will fall flat on his face in time for Mitt to skate to an early state sweep. (As I grab my popcorn, and get ready for the show)
December 14th, 2007 at 11:33 am
People are only just beginning to pay attention and they are deciding that they don’t like Giuliani. His perch atop polls was due to name recognition and nothing else. Undecideds are starting to decide. It happens in every election. Most are breaking towards Huckabee, and some are breaking towards Romney. They are abandoning Giuliani and Thompson in droves. McCain is a well-known candidate like Giuliani too, but McCain’s not very popular in the Republican Party. It’s going to be a race between Huckabee and Romney. Right now the edge has to go to Huckabee.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:34 am
Nice Mitt Article…
http://www.townhall.com/Columnists/MonaCharen/2007/12/14/a_second_look_at_romney
December 14th, 2007 at 11:35 am
#24 - I agree there as well. Yesterday people were complaining that this site is a Pro-Romney site, and Matthew you made the correct point that I think it only goes to show that either the grass-roots ability of Mitt FAR outweighs that of the other candidates (Rudy foremost) or that the level of participation in the political process amongst Mitt supporters is greater. Either way, it is hardly reason to BLAME Mitt, or his supporters, for being actively engaged in supporting their candidate.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:36 am
Brett,
Maybe. He’s in a tough situation. As Metro has pointed out, if Romney now somehow wins Iowa, he’s in a considerably better position then he would have been had he won with no competition. So Rudy doesn’t want Romney to win Iowa; he doesn’t want Huckabee to entirely disappear. But, he also doesn’t want Huck to win Iowa going away, because realistically Romney and McCain have better chances of taking NH, regardless of how Iowa shakes out. So there’s a delicate balance he needs to negotiate. But, I’ve seen no sign that he’s even attempting to negotiate this balance.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:37 am
I was worried Mitt would run too far to the right in the primaries, So that he would be seen as extreme right come the national election. But with the Huckster, Mitt could at least point and say he isn’t the religious-right-extremist.
Thanks, Huck-a-Bye, Bye
December 14th, 2007 at 11:37 am
If there’s one thing I would like to point out that nobody is talking about it’s that everybody is running against Romney. Huckabee’s biggest competitor-Romney. Giuliani’s biggest competitor-Romney. McCain’s biggest competitor-Romney. Romney’s truly building a conservative coalition, and the others are just hoping to cut off a big enough chunk to slide by.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:38 am
The best strategy for Rudy and McCain is to take Romney out by preventing him from winning NH. Romney is the bigger threat because of his money, but his campaign dies if he can’t win IA or NH. Then whoever does win NH can face off with Huckabee. Huckabee is too strong to take on now, but Romney is wounded and only needs to get hit hard a couple times to knock him out.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:39 am
#27 - Great article.
“But the mainstream Mormon Church has enough of a track record in producing excellent Americans that the particularities of its doctrine are by now a matter of purely scholarly interest.”
I think that most reasonable people will feel the same way. Those that know members of the Mormon faith, typically come away the same impression. At the least, impressed that we don’t have tusks and pointed ears like the trolls we are sometimes depicted as.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:40 am
It looks like Huck just put the torch to Rudy’s firewall.
The whole implicit notion that Guiliani voters in Florida would be impervious to what is happening elsewhere was always absurd.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:40 am
I sincerely pray to God that Romney is not the nominee, because one, I’d have to vote for him and two, I do not want a phony in the white house.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:40 am
After reading all of this, why don’t they just all drop out and say none of the the above?
December 14th, 2007 at 11:41 am
New poll out of Texas: (votes March 4)
http://ivrpolls.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&It
* Huckabee 29% (16%)
* Giuliani 16% (23%)
* Thompson 14% (16%)
* Romney 14% (12%)
* McCain 7% (9%)
* Paul 6% (5%)
* Tancredo 3% (3%)
* Hunter 2% (3%)
* Keyes 0% (1%)
* Undecided 9% (11%)
535 past TX GOP Primary voters polled 12/12, MoE 4.2%
December 14th, 2007 at 11:42 am
Joe M
…… “phony”?……personally, or publically….
Because I believe they are one and the same, in the end.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:43 am
Feltcher,
I’d disagree. Obviously McCain doesn’t want Romney to win NH, but I’m not convinced Rudy doesn’t. After NH, we’ll head into Michigan. Michigan is heavily unionized and has a protectionist streak a mile wide. As the last Rasmussen poll there shows, Huck has real appeal in the state. McCain is currently too far back to “face off” with Huckabee there, even with a small NH boost (and it would be small, because pundits would tend to write it off given NH’s roll in McCain’s 2000 campaign). McCain can’t derail Huck; he can’t even slow him down. No, if Rudy doesn’t win NH, he wants Romney to win there, so that come Florida, no one candidate has crushing momentum.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:44 am
#31 - While I agree, I think that coming to that realization now, at least for Rudy, may be too late. I think McCain would have the best shot at that scenario, but then what do they do, allow Huckabee to continue to run un-challenged. I know you would want that Feltcher
but I don’t think that will happen. Mitt’s support in NH has tended to solidify with his recent decline in IA rather than slide off to McCain. I think Mitt has a great shot at winning NH if he can maintain his steady rise as of late, and especially if he can pull out a win in IA. I think Justin makes an excellent point when he says, “Will Iowa be the Values Voters Straw Poll Take 2? Where the evangelical vote goes for Huckabee but the superior strategy and ground game of Romney edges him out? And then edges him out again in the press?” Romney’s organizational ability is amazing, and he could edge Huck out in IA by sheer organizational ability in getting people to the event.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:44 am
JOE M…you would rather have Huck? U kidding me?
December 14th, 2007 at 11:45 am
[...] but not winning a bunch of early primary states. And then he was going to win in Florida. But a new Rasmussen poll, if verified with more polling, would explode that [...]
December 14th, 2007 at 11:46 am
Rudy losing FLA and TX, maybe that is why Gov. Perry made his comment yesterday. There is a new leader in TX and Perry wants to jump ship!
December 14th, 2007 at 11:51 am
All the candidates except Giuliani have already played their full hands.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:52 am
If Huckabee or Romney does get the Republican Party nominee,
they will lose the election.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:52 am
41 Ifilgo: NO WAY will I vote for Huckabee with his dispicably ignorant, knuckle-headed, hateful remarks on gay people and people with HIV. I dont like Romney, period because he is a phony on the issues and he would flip flop like pancakes at IHOP once he becomes president (Abe)….see folks, although I am a little different than most, I am true conservative.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:52 am
Cliff…c’mon, they have all played their hands…really?
December 14th, 2007 at 11:52 am
Something that I think a lot of people overlook about Florida is that they will be particularly susceptible to being influenced by the results of the earlier states. Not because Florida cares what other states think, but because buying ads in Florida is extremely expensive. There are four major media markets in Florida, and you have to buy air time in each one. Rudy isn’t going to be able to lose all the earlier states then drop a billion into Florida to overcoming another candidate’s momentum. Huckabee won’t have any money to put into Florida’s media. Romney could perhaps split the early states with another candidate, then spend enough in Florida to edge it his way. Of course, if Romney manages to win Iowa and New Hampshire, I think everybody else should save their money and drop out.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:54 am
How has Mitt flopped from what he did in office
December 14th, 2007 at 11:55 am
mary 45 you are ABSOLUTELY, ONE HUNDRED PER CENT, correct.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:56 am
Sometimes I wonder if people who make the “phony� and “flip-flop� charges really believe their own BS, which would make them stupid, or if they are shrewd and know that such charges require little to no evidence.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:56 am
ifilgo its all in the record books lets not re-hash old, dead wood.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:57 am
Considering Huckabee leads in 4 pre-Super Tuesday states now (Iowa, Michigan, South Carolina, and now Florida), and has maintained a consistent lead over Guiliani in the Rasmussen national poll (in others’ they’re tied), I think we are due for another reshuffling of the Power Rankings.
Rudy is losing his “must win” when it wasn’t even clear he could wait that long for a win. He can’t be considered the leader anymore.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:58 am
bjalder26 the phony and flipflop issues are Romney’s BIGGEST negative and that is why his supporters like YOU can’t take the heat. A good example is idiots like you calling people who dislike Romney because of his basic trait as a phony, stupid.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:58 am
Re # 27 Mona Charen is a jew and believes evangelicals discriminate against jews. So she is choosing a mormon as a way to again create a wedge between evangelicals and other conservatives. I am not a Huckabee supporter, but I reject Charen’s brand of politics.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:58 am
AHHH Joe.. I love those types of defenses.
Well I wish you and Mary would see that it takes actual organization to win an election, something Rudy has failed to demonstrate he has! And what about Rudy’s flip-flops!??
December 14th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
“All the candidates except Giuliani have already played their full hands.�
This isn’t poker, the reality is that the other candidates are steaking their chances on realistic paths to victory and Giuliani isn’t. If Rudy wins New Hampshire, he’s got as good of a shot as anybody. If he makes a decent showing in Iowa and comes in a close second in New Hampshire he’s still got a shot. If he gets 3rd or worse in both states-he’s done.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
This is funny. The bid on Giuliani (Florida) on intrade is 23, the ask is 73!! lol
December 14th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
Ifilgo, Romney has been all about MONEY. I love how you Romney supporters crawl out of the woodwork and snicker and sneer at people….you are all a bunch of moonies….
December 14th, 2007 at 12:02 pm
TALK ABOUT A “STUPID” STATEMENT:
bjalder26: “If Rudy wins New Hampshire, he’s got as good of a shot as anybody..”…
If Rudy wins New Hampshire, the whole friggin race is OVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
December 14th, 2007 at 12:04 pm
Mitt hasn’t flopped one iota on any issue from his actions as Governor! Instead of making those flimsy accusations on here like that, show proof! There isn’t any. On the other hand Huckabee has changes positions on several issues in just the last two weeks.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:04 pm
Prediction: Romney and Rudy will split the Northeastern states. Huckabee will take the rest of the country and the nomination. Huckabee is surging everywhere except the northeast.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:05 pm
Hilarious! Huckabee is now leading Florida, Iowa, and SC, while virtually tied for the lead in Michigan, and in second in Nevada, and all everyone on here wants to talk about is Mitt. You can deny it all you want, Huckabee is peaking at the right time, he has the people’s trust because he’s not only consistant (like Rudy), but a conservative. Mitt’s abortion stance will not be let go. it will be brought up time and time again, and no matter what he won’t get away from it. he wasn’t at odds with his feelings on it just a few years ago, he was 100% pro-choice, and yes he changed his mind. yeah, reagan changed his mind too, but in a much different situation. I see a Huckabee ticket coming real soon.
Tell me, why do you people think Mitt is a better ticket than Huck. This is a serious question. With religion being a big concern to half of the voters, do we really think he could win?
December 14th, 2007 at 12:05 pm
I’d like to thank Cliff in #44 for helping us remember that there is the Rudy Boom coming. Metro hasn’t been very conspicuous for the last couple of days, so we haven’t had his reminder that Rudy has his “Shock and Awe” campaign ready to go to rip victory from the jaws of defeat in NH. I gotta tell you, I’m pretty shocked so far, and these FL results are pretty awe inspiring.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
illinoisguy you really are either trying to cover up the truth or you are just plain BLIND to the fact that romney has “transformed” himself, or “morphed” as some would say, into a liberal-leaning politician when running for Governor, and then a staunch conservative when running for president. Whats he gonna do IF he actually becomes president? have weekly lunches with Harry Reid (another Mormon by the way)????????????
December 14th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
Joe & Mary, if Romney has no shot, then why is he the republican most attacked by the democrats? he is the guy that the democrats do not want to face. He has been attacked muc more than any other candidate. On the other hand, the democrats have decided not to attack HUckabee at all. They want to run against Huckabee.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
Ahh, thank you, Joe M for brining up a “Mormon conspiracy” meme. We haven’t heard that one before, or anything.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:11 pm
David Freddosso over at NRO just said that if this is confirmed by other polls, Rudy near the end of his rope. I wouldn’t go quite that far, but I really what exactly he’s doing here. I’ve wondered that this entire year, and nothing has come along to clarify the situation. Go after Huckabee, and hard. Bring his Iowa win to 10 points or less. Try to eke out second in NH (first is probably out of the question) Take a stab at Michigan. Secure Florida. Secure Florida. Secure Florida. These are the only sane things he can do at this point.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:12 pm
All I know is that Romney is getting a ton of positive press the last 2 weeks while Huckabee is getting a lot of negative press. I liked the Iowa poll the other day that showed Huckabee at 30% and Romney at 25%. This Flirda poll is interesting because Romney hasn’t even focused there. Sure, Huckabee automatically go the evangelical vote via the pastor push, but Romney somehow got a ton of support. Huckabee’s support is limited. Sure, he got a huge boost through his email and pastor networks, but he lacks broad appeal. The pundits already recognize this. and the democrats have known this for a while. I know Hillary, Obama and the rest are lighting candles for Huckabee at some church somewhere right now.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:14 pm
How would Kay Bailey Hutchison be for a Romney VP? Who would you prefer?
December 14th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
So Rudy is second tier now? Zero early states, no national lead, downward momentum. If and when the Huck bubble bursts as many predict, Romney has a cakewalk.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:16 pm
irish Right 67, your’e welcome
Actually, I was referring to Harry Reid the LIBERAL, and just threw in the mormon thing for flavor… you can take a joke I hope.
Greg 66, ROMNEY has been running for president for three years and pumping MILLIONS of his own money into it, buying support from students and creating the biggest ILLUSION in presidential politics history. He is being attacked because he is a phony on the issues, not because he is the biggest threat. Now, regarding Huckabee, I agree with you - - he would be creamed and you can say hello to President Barack HUSSEIN Obama.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:19 pm
The deomcrats do not attack candidates that they are not afraid of, period. As for VP for Romney, I really like Halley Barbour (sp?). He really likes Romney, too.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
#70 - IllinoisGuy
NO WAY- She is not well liked in Texas right now - and I bet that wont change anytime soon - she is totally ignoring the immigration issue and letting Ramos and Compean rot in jail. She is a tool now.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
I actually think being Barack Hussein Obama is not a bad thing for America when we need to show some of these crazies that we do not hate them and want to steal their oil. Sending all these pale-faced christians and jews over there on our behalf has not worked for 60+ years. I am not adverse to giving it a try.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
mary, how do you figure that someone running on all three legs of the stool (Romney) will lose the election. In my opinion he has the best opportunity of anyone to win.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:23 pm
Joe M, normally I can take a joke and if you would have left that off I could have chuckled and just shaken my head. Unfortunately, with the Schmuckster’s “innocent” little attempt to wedge, my sense of humor about religion these days is pretty much running on empty.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:25 pm
Fletcher are you serious if you are you justed revealed why you support huck you are a socialist!
December 14th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
“bjalder26 the phony and flipflop issues are Romney’s BIGGEST negative and that is why his supporters like YOU can’t take the heat. A good example is idiots like you calling people who dislike Romney because of his basic trait as a phony, stupid.�
I would agree that those charges are the best attacks against Romney, but that fact is only because there aren’t any substantive charges to make against Romney. I’ve investigated every charge against Romney and the only things of substance against him are that he’s changed on the issue of life, which wasn’t as big of a change as people claim. He vowed to not change Mass’s laws, which in a state with a supermajority of Democrats meant shooting down expansions to abortion rights. He actually ran for Governor on a platform that included not letting abortion rights expand, specifically mentioning in debates that he differed from his competitor in that she wanted to take away parental notification. He didn’t seek to overturn Roe vs. Wade, which isn’t a real issue for a governor anyway, but he has changed on his view of Roe vs. Wade, and he’s been honest and upfront about that. It wasn’t in an election year, it was the first time he came up against a life issue, and he wrote an op-ed about how he is now pro-life and why.
The other area where I believe he’s changed is in his view on gay rights activists. Once believing they weren’t out to force homosexuality into the mainstream, whereas now I think he recognizes that they are. Of course, their rhetoric has changed quite a bit over the years, and what was likely secret plans then is now posted on websites.
The other candidates on the other hand, have made quite a few “unnoticed� changes in policy. Honestly though, I don’t care that much because I think their policies have improved. Thompson, Huckabee, Giuliani, and McCain are tougher on illegal immigration now than in the first debate when Romney called for no amnesty. Giuliani is much more pro-life than he was before, when he supported publicly funded abortions, and partial-birth abortions. There’s a lot more, but what’s the point, I want these guys to become more conservative.
To call phoniness Romney’s “basic trait� as you did, just shows that you hate him and will cling onto anything to continue to hate him. When I first heard about Romney possibly running for President I hated the idea, sneered and rolled my eyes. Then I looked into anything I could find about him. It’s his success in business and education that first started to change my mind about him. As I was a business major with high grades (though not quite as high as Romney’s). When these allegations came out later, I already knew the real stories behind most of them, so they rang false, the rest I investigated because I didn’t want to support somebody to find out later they suck, and they’re all half-truths or all out lies.
Romney’s real basic trait is integrity though, that’s why he was chosen to save over the scandal ridden Olympics and that’s why he was successful. Look up the story about him closing down Bain Capital to save a college’s daughter, or the story his driver tells about him if you doubt his integrity.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:27 pm
Does anyone have any idea what Huckabee’s big announcement might be?
http://www.mikehuckabee.com/?FuseAction=Newsroom.PressRelease&ID=434
December 14th, 2007 at 12:28 pm
only the pundits are buying into the three legs of the Republican stool argument. Look at the electorate. They are angry at the establishment, and they want something different. This is a change election. Hillary would lose in a landslide because she is part of the old establishment. Obama is new so he would be a formidable opponent. Romney would be painted as a northeastern elitist from a privileged background. He would also depress turnout among the backbone of the Republican party, Christians. He would definitely lose. To believe otherwise is to be entertaining illusions. Don’t always believe the pundits. They are out of phase with everyday people.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
James - he hired Ed Rollins to run his campaign.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:33 pm
BJALDER26, INTEGRITY? What about the 80MPH doggie???
December 14th, 2007 at 12:34 pm
83 - I’ll take a dog riding on top of a car over a dead dog hanging in a noose with its throat slit and stoned to death any day… next…
December 14th, 2007 at 12:35 pm
I love the Huck people….it is the same theory of Rudy supporters a few months ago.
If Huck was all that…he would kill Romney, yet Romney is within striking distance in Iowa. Dominates NH. Within Striking distance of all the early states and has the good press and organization to win!
Huckabee admits that the recent press has been too tough! Shame how easy Huck collapses (Iowa Debate) when people actually look beyond his pastor status to review the rest of his resume! Huck is no conservative. Huck couldn’t win a national election because the Fi-cons and Defense-Cons would abandon ship. Let the so-called Christians try to win on their own! Next time, we should just kick out the Ultra-Right Evangelicals out on their ass! Conservatives don’t need those loons, we will take the practical evangelicals and christians anytime!
December 14th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Go Huckabee! You can do it! My Fairtax fantasies come true!
December 14th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
#79 Very well said. I knew all of that, but you say it much better!! Thank you.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Umm, Joe M, what does a kennel on the top of a station wagon have to do with integrity? I’d venture to say that in that day and age, that was not an unusual method of transportation, in the least. Really, find another meme.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:37 pm
“only the pundits are buying into the three legs of the Republican stool argument. Look at the electorate. They are angry at the establishment, and they want something different. This is a change election. Hillary would lose in a landslide because she is part of the old establishment. Obama is new so he would be a formidable opponent. Romney would be painted as a northeastern elitist from a privileged background. He would also depress turnout among the backbone of the Republican party, Christians. He would definitely lose. To believe otherwise is to be entertaining illusions. Don’t always believe the pundits. They are out of phase with everyday people.�
Not “only the pundits are buying into the three legs argument�. People are “angry at the establishment� because of ISSUES. They don’t believe the establishment is looking out for their interests. If Obama benefits from being a fresh face, so does Romney. The idea that he would be painted as an elitist is ludicrous if you know much about his life. If they tried to paint an elitist picture of Romney, it would be a HUGE mistake, because it would open the door to him sharing MORE about his life that people will admire him for. Romney won’t depress turnout among republicans, he’ll raise turnout. He’s truly building a conservative coalition, that has a broad appeal, other candidates are just trying to chip off the biggest chunk they can. This is my biased opinion as an everyday person.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:37 pm
The dog loved it. He willingly jumped in to ride cause he loved being with that wonderful family. Who are you to judge what the dog should and should not like to do?
December 14th, 2007 at 12:39 pm
I love Huck’s recent flips (and I am not talking about 1994)…
School Vouchers
Taxes
Cuba
Etc.
I love how Huck and Rudy people attempt to bash romney for flip-flopping yet turn a blind eye to their own candidate’s flips and flops. Also, it is sad when you ahve to go back to 1994 for Mitt, when you only have to look at 2006-2007 for your own candidates!
December 14th, 2007 at 12:39 pm
PEOPLE! Rasmussen’s polls have smelled to high-heaven all year. He flogged Fred earlier, until the weight of Fred’s negatives finally made Ras’s polls showing him in the lead laughable. Now his new favorite is Huckabee.
I don’t take Rasmussen seriously for one second, and I wish some overpaid pundits in the media would start calling him on his clearly cooked polls.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:41 pm
Maybe so Greg…but all supporters have touted Rasmussen at some point either to support or bash a candidate!
Lets see if similar polls show a similar trend!
December 14th, 2007 at 12:41 pm
“Umm, Joe M, what does a kennel on the top of a station wagon have to do with integrity? I’d venture to say that in that day and age, that was not an unusual method of transportation, in the least. Really, find another meme.�
I’ve heard some people suggest Romney should have put the dog into a doggie seat belt (which didn’t exist back then) and other suggest the dog should have been in the back seat (unsecured-which in reality would have been more dangerous). The best answer to this I’ve heard though was when somebody pointed out that people weren’t even very serious about using seat belts back then. The hilarious part of this criticism is that it comes from a series of Boston Globe articles about Romney’s life and THIS was the best criticism they could come up with.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:41 pm
And to repeat with emphasis…;.
Yes, I think Rasmussen is a fraud of the first order.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:45 pm
Greg Alteron,
“I don’t take Rasmussen seriously for one second, and I wish some overpaid pundits in the media would start calling him on his clearly cooked polls.”
Rasmussen was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2004. Pollster will vary in methodology, and some are better than others, but it is absurd to think a pollster would committ professional suicide by shilling for a candidate. Rasmussen has the track record to prove his accuracy.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:47 pm
This poll confirms the trend in most polls we are seeing. romney and huck are going up, while giuliani, fred, and mccain are going down.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:48 pm
Agreed MWS. I have no reason to want Huck to be leading, but I think it’s simply malicious nonsense to claim that Rasmussen “cooks” his polls. I think there’s a valid argument that he probably statistically oversamples social-conservatives and registered Republicans. The trends suggest that he at least does so, relative to the other polling companies. But, I’m not sure this isn’t an accurate predictor of the 08′ primaries; with the Democratic trend, it’s likely that our primaries will be more highly partisan then in the past; i.e, there will be less independents voting. Rasmussen might well be the only pollster to predict that.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
Again I say: there’s no way to spin this. Huckabee is our front-runner. Come February, if this nonsense keeps up, I will have a comfortable new home in the Libertarian Party.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
mitt being at the top of second choice is very good for him. i have said florida will go his way if he manages to do well before that from early on. good organizatoin there and lots of money will put him over the top there.
whats amazing is that romney has the highest favorabilitiy rating among the bunch. he was genious to do that speech. it pushed him out of the lump he has been in teh polls and could not overcome. it reintroduced him and she dhim in a new better light. genius!!
December 14th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
Jeez Louise! I’m without electricity for 5 days and this is what’s been happening? I’ve got a lot of catching up to do.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
Poor Metro
December 14th, 2007 at 12:50 pm
“Yes, I think Rasmussen is a fraud of the first order.�
Polls are interesting, but I think their value is limited. If the recent Rudy slide has shown us anything, it’s that his supposed support wasn’t really there. Sure he could win back all those people, but anybody could win those people, and anybody could win a lot of the people that are supposedly supporting any candidate according to the polls.
I’m not sure if Rasmussen is any less accurate than any other poll, we just need to take them for what they’re worth. I believe people are going to vote based on the issues they support much more than who they “like� a month out of the election. The earliest states are a bit different, because they’re much more involved in the process right now, but a lot is still up for grabs.
With that said, I believe Romney has the right issues to win. While other candidates have been looking to make the funniest or most cleaver remark during the debates, Romney has been more focused on illuminating differences in position between himself and others. Those differences, now public, are going to be what really helps Romney from the debates.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:51 pm
THE DOG STORY. The damn car had poop all over it - - diahreah(sp) - - and even Romney’s kids were crying after it happened.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:53 pm
Crying? Is this like fan fiction?
December 14th, 2007 at 12:53 pm
103 - The dead dog story - the dog was dead - Huckabee’s son got fired from the scout camp - no charges pressed… oh, while Huckabee was a sitting governor - does anyone actually believe that Huckabee’s status had NO bearing on charges?
You can run a car through the wash - you can’t bring a dead dog back to life.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:54 pm
I’m shocked.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:54 pm
Oh, and dogs poop every day, it’s a fact, you can look it up in wiki if you don’t believe me.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:54 pm
103- in case this is news.. my advise is to drop the dog on a car ride schtick
http://www.utopiarescue.com/oldsite/stop_animal_torture.htm
December 14th, 2007 at 12:56 pm
108 - ‘crap’ happens, eh?
December 14th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
Oh my goodness FCOH, I knew about it but didn’t realize it was so horrible. I just read that they stoned the dog to death. That was shockingly disturbing.
December 14th, 2007 at 12:58 pm
I see that Metro has gone MIA. Happy days!
December 14th, 2007 at 12:58 pm
Oh, nevermind. >_
December 14th, 2007 at 12:59 pm
Why does Huckabee’s son have a different last name?
December 14th, 2007 at 1:01 pm
In metro’s defense (why am I doing this?), he has always based his arguments on what the polls were reflecting. Giuliani held a comfortable lead in Florida for a long time. This was tough to foresee.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:01 pm
This is terrible news….I would love to believe that the Huck-a-bust is coming like abe predicts, but my gut instincts tell me that he’s gonna ride the Evangelical wave to the nomination. True conservatives UNITE and stop this pro-life liberal!!
December 14th, 2007 at 1:02 pm
Tarheel, true republicans are uniting against Huck. Just read the news releases over the last 1.5 weeks.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:03 pm
On #107. HAHAHAHA. I was scrolling down this thread just to see Metro’s response
Wait, Huckabee is in the lead. I’m not laughing anymore.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:09 pm
If Huckster gets in office, let’s make a bet as to how long until he grants a pardon to Michael Vick - after all, Michael Vick ‘found Jesus’
December 14th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
From the Rass article:
Among those who consider a candidate’s faith and religion Very Important, Huckabee has a huge lead. He attracts 44% of these voters. Romney attracts 15%, Thompson 11%, and Giuliani 8%.
Huck’s so tied to the evangelical vote that he will have a hard time expanding his base beyond that. If Romney or Rudy falter, I still go with either of them to win over Huckabee (at least I HOPE so).
However, I still predict that Huckabee’s negatives will be aired more convincingly and will pull him down just in time for ROmney to take control of the early state situation (I’m not buying for one second that Huckabee will win MI or NV)
December 14th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
And Vick too, like someone else close to Huck, was instrumental in the death of dogs!
December 14th, 2007 at 1:12 pm
That’s harsh ilfigo . . . funny, but harsh.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:13 pm
Jeff…I will go even further. I think Romney will pull out Iowa…The Huck surge has been a benefit to Romeny, esp. with this FLA news. A Romney win in Iowa ends the surge if it still exists at that point. Romney surges with momentum to take the early states incl. FLA and it will be very hard for RUDY to stop him (although still possible unless Rudy falters).
December 14th, 2007 at 1:15 pm
TARHEEL R.,
You Gotta Believe….
THE HUCK-A-BUST is Coming…..Jan. 3rd!!
IS TODAY JAN. 3RD!!!!!?!!!!
December 14th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
maybe the poll sucks, maybe its an outlier. BUT , if Florida is an impregnable rudy stronghold, there is no way any poll should have him in third place. If any poll puts you in third place somewhere, then you are not momentum proof in that state.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
TLG,
Congrats on you college acceptance.
It looks likes that one way or another, one of us will have to find a new political home.
You could go Libertarian. I may have to retreat to a monastary.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:20 pm
TLG: Congrats on the college admission, my friend!
December 14th, 2007 at 1:20 pm
Matthew,
I agree that pollsters should be employing tighter than usual screens this year for the Republicans. The celebrity effect is all on the Democratic side (with a minor exception of Guiliani), and morale among Republicans is very low, as evidenced by the disparity in fundraising. It looks like the primaries will be dominated by “hardcore” Republicans.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:21 pm
TLG where u off to, I missed it?
December 14th, 2007 at 1:22 pm
It’s a Romney-Huck race now. Who will survive?
December 14th, 2007 at 1:27 pm
joe c, FL was not one of the states Team Rudy referred to as momentum-proof. It was the NY area states.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:27 pm
Nate,
It’s only a Romney-Huck race right now in Iowa…..
Florida is an Eternity away…
December 14th, 2007 at 1:28 pm
Haha Abe you are the MAN!
December 14th, 2007 at 1:29 pm
btw I was responding to comment 124
December 14th, 2007 at 1:30 pm
131 - metro. My bad, you are right. but still, the media had been acting like FL was a done deal.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:33 pm
New Power Rankings…
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Giuliani
4. McCain
5. Thompson
6. Paul
7. Tancredo
8. Hunter
9. Keyes
December 14th, 2007 at 1:33 pm
TLG,
Congrats on the American U acceptance. I’ve just been accepted as a transfer student to one of my state colleges (the College of New Jersey). I wasn’t a big fan of my former college (really isolated, really liberal, etc), so today’s a pretty good day for me too.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:37 pm
TLG, Congrats on you college acceptance. It looks likes that one way or another, one of us will have to find a new political home. You could go Libertarian. I may have to retreat to a monastary.
Thank you, first of all. Second — as I’ve been saying: this coalition is a marriage of convenience. This will be the last cycle that it works, if it even works this time around. This party can’t go on with intra-party fighting.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:39 pm
I simply cannot believe that any significant number of Rudy supporters are migrating to Huckabee. The two are complete opposites. So what’s happening?
1. Rudy, to a greater degree than any other candidate, has slippery polls. A vast portion of his support is based on an electability argument and high poll numbers. Once that falters, it will shake off his soft support. After all, why would anyone vote for someone who they disagree with on major issues, when he didn’t even look like a winner?
2. Some of Rudy’s less-soft supporters are probably getting completely freaked at the Huck-a-boom…and they’re migrating to more competitive 2nd choice candidates who can satisfy them on fiscal and security matters. Enter Romney…the only competition Huckabee has in the early states.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
Matthew E. Miller — Awesome news. But it’s so sad that our good news of today must also be met with such a depressing new turn of events, is it not? Huckabee as our official frontrunner? Scary, sad stuff.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:42 pm
Congrats to both of you!
December 14th, 2007 at 1:42 pm
Re #114: If you are referring to where Huckabee’s son is identified as “David litickabee,” I think that’s what you get if you run the word “Huckabee” through a fax machine and a character recognition scanner that’s not 100% precise, or some other setup along those lines. Note that David is referred to as “Huckabee” later in the same item.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:43 pm
An acceptance in December? That sounds like early decision, so AU was your first choice? Nice job, TLG.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:44 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkITyPRJR2s
December 14th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
Aw, come on, Matthew. In the forge of liberalism is where you can really cut your teeth. Unless you become consumed, of course.
But isolation sucks. Congrats!
December 14th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
TLG,
I’m actually relatively optimistic about all this. I think the Florida poll means that ALL guns will now be trained on Huckabee. This accepting gifts story is gaining traction, the Club for Growth is doubling their ad buy. And now Rudy really has no choice but to go hard after Huckabee. We have about 7-8 days for this stuff to happen openly; after that, alot of the negatives on Huckabee will happen under the radar. And I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we wake up on January 3rd to see Huck winning Iowa by less then 5 points, and dropping everywhere else. Like I said a month ago; the silliest idea of this campaign season, was believing that we’d be able to easily stop Huckabee after he won Iowa. Recent events have woken people up to the silliness of this idea, and action will be taken. A week and a half ago, I would said Huckabee will be our nominee. Now, I don’t think he will, despite the rosiness of his poll numbers.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:55 pm
murphy,
I’m not a very outgoing person, and there’s only so much you can take of rabid liberalism. I took a leadership studies class, and everyone beforehand warned me that the professor was a conservative, and that I ought to be careful (I don’t generally advertise my political affiliations, so they just assumed I was liberal). People online, through the professor rating system, said the same thing. At the last day of class, we discussed practical politics where the professor divulged that he was hoping we’d end up with…Al Gore. Conservative indeed. A few years ago, someone did a study of our school, and at the time we didn’t have a single registered Republican professor. It’s madness, especially when you’re a political major.
TLG,
A friend of mine goes to AU, and as I understand it, there’s a pretty decent of conservatism among the student body. So you’re probably in pretty good shape that way.
December 14th, 2007 at 1:59 pm
Huckabee is a dead man walking right now. He cannot be elected President with Wayne Dumond hanging over him. America loves a guy that will feel their pain, and will forgive sex scandals and ethically challenged politicians, but if there is one issue that everyone is sensitive to, its violent crime. Mike Huckabee has put illegal immigrants and violent criminals’ interests over the interests of American citizens. Rich Lowry is right: Huckabee is the Howard Dean of 2008.
December 14th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
woa haha its RASMUSSEN people, wake up. just a week ago multiple polls had rudy up 15 to 20 points. huck might be surging, but he’s not that good. rasmussen is the least reliable and least scientific of all the polls. thats why we have averages people, so bad polls dont consume us. i doubt rudy dropped 30 points in a week, when all the polls show he’s the most electable. but if you far right wingers get your way and beat rudy, we’ll have a democrat president. no other republican will even contend, it will be a landslide.
December 14th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Has the commercial with the mother of Dumond’s victim aired anywhere in Iowa. I wonder if that guy needs donations to get it aired.
December 14th, 2007 at 2:06 pm
matt, Rasmussen has the reputation for being among the most accurate polls out there.
December 14th, 2007 at 2:13 pm
Rasmussen samples more conservatives than any other polling outfit. So, it has higher numbers for Huckabee and Romney than other polls. Other Florida polls might show a small lead for Huckabee with Romney and Giuliani tied for 2nd.
December 14th, 2007 at 2:19 pm
Well this just sucks. No way around it.
December 14th, 2007 at 2:21 pm
Metro, TLG, and any other Rudy guy waiting for the “shock and awe”,
I have difficulty believing that Giuliani can just stomp on the gas, and his campaign will respond flawlessly and smoothly. It has been coasting on idle for months now, comfortable with their high name recognition and high polling. It isn’t used to that kind of stress. The only major candidate who has campaigned with less energy than Rudy is Fred.
December 14th, 2007 at 2:40 pm
LOL. Really funny comment (154)Mark.
December 14th, 2007 at 2:49 pm
well, I’ve been posting for weeks that Huck was a Rudy killer… some people at FOX News must be feeling very stupid right about now. They tried to make Rudy the nominee but instead they killed him.
No way around it folks. But do not despair. The mittwagon has plenty of room for the rudybots. Romney also provides air conditioned tents, free meals, and miniature three legged stools. Come on in!
December 14th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
While I recognize this is a matter of conscience for each voter, I have a question for Republicans who would like to terminate a potential Huckabee presidency before it is even conceived:
How receptive would you be to aborting an accidental Huckabee nomination with Plan B…as in Bloomberg?
December 14th, 2007 at 3:14 pm
I haven’t really commented on what I’d do personally if Huck wins before now… I’d be open to a 3rd party candidate, but from what little I know of him, it’s not Bloomberg.
December 14th, 2007 at 3:19 pm
Aron,
I detest Bloomberg. If possible, he’s a bigger nanny stater and tax hiker then Huckabee. No thanks. I’d rather have good judges and a pro-life nanny-stater/tax hiker then bad judges and a pro-choice nanny-stater/tax hiker. The only improvement would be trade and education. But, it’s irrelevant. I’m voting Hillary or Obama is Huck’s the nominee. They’re both better then either Bloomberg or Huckabee.
December 14th, 2007 at 3:20 pm
Benjamin#155,
Thanks, but I really wasn’t trying to be funny. I was only stating the truth. Rudy really hasn’t put all the much effort into running his campaign. A few speeches here and there. A fundraiser or two. Show up for the debates. Other than that, he has been coasting on his high poll numbers.
Well, as the Red Queen said, “You have to run as fast as you can just to stay in one place.” When (if?) Rudy slams the hammer down in the next couple of weeks, can his campaign handle the unaccustommed stress? That has to be a real question of concern for he and his supporters.
By contrast, does anyone doubt that Romney’s organization can handle the high pressure of the closing stretch? Not with any sincerity, no. It is one lean, mean machine in prefect fighting trim.
There are good reasons why the other candidates, including the Democrats, fear him.
December 14th, 2007 at 3:22 pm
Maybe instead of daydreaming about yet another secular NYC social liberal as the answer to Huckabee, we could just nominate a consensus conservative.
Or we can keep driving towards the cliff with socially liberal Republicans demanding everything, and getting nothing.
December 14th, 2007 at 3:24 pm
So its looks like florida is going to be important, but not for who we though it would be. whoever wins Florida probably wins the whole thing.
also, huck’s lead in iowa seems to be shrively down to around 10 percent give or take a few. that is down from 15 to 20 last week. that is good news. i think romney still has a shot at iowa and he may pull closer in the next few weeks?????
December 14th, 2007 at 3:59 pm
Aron, if it gets down to it, Bloomberg is pragmatic enough socially and conservative enough fiscally (barely) to get my vote over Huck, Clinton, or Obama.
December 15th, 2007 at 10:18 am
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