Taking the Rasmussen crosstabs from September and December we can readily gauge the specific demographics who have soured on Rudy.
- Overall, Rudy’s “very favorable” rating dropped nearly 10 points (from 36% to 27%) and while his “somewhat favorable” rating remained pretty constant (42%) his “somewhat unfavorable” number jumped 13 percentage points (from 10% to 23%). Note that Rudy’s “very unfavorable” number held constant at 7%.
- First, the sexes. While women trended slightly more toward the “unfavorable” column, men left in droves. For example, Rudy lost 16% of men out of his “very favorable” column.
- Ages? Most of the age brackets fell towards “unfavorable” ratings by about 6% but 30 to 50 year olds bailed in a big fashion. In this group, Rudy lost 16% of his favorable ratings.
- Nothing spectacularly noticeable among marrieds and voters with children. Both groups trended downward for Rudy.
- The most conspicuous demographic were high income voters. For the “100K” plus column almost 30% left Rudy’s favorable column!
- Religion. As can be expected, Rudy performed the worst among Evangelicals.
Of course, the big stories are Huckabee moving from 3% to 27% in two months and Romney moving from 11% to 23%.
But here’s the real clincher. While Rudy lost 10% points, Thompson went from 23% to 9%. OUCH!
NOTE: Ooops. Failed to note. These are Florida poll numbers.
December 15th, 2007 at 12:11 pm
You might want to mention that this is the Florida poll. Because, it took me awhile to make that out.
December 15th, 2007 at 12:19 pm
Bottom line: Mitt’s scorched earth tactics have had some effect. Which is not to say Mitt could withstand a similar onslaught in the general election. If Mitt makes it to the general election with the three-cornered Republican temple intact, it’ll be brought crashing down upon him.
December 15th, 2007 at 12:24 pm
And here it is folks… Rudy’s last stand!
I love it!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSWu6kyYSKw
December 15th, 2007 at 12:31 pm
MarkG – what are Mitt’s “scorched earth tactics?” That’s the first time I’ve ever heard of that line.
December 15th, 2007 at 12:37 pm
Rudy’s general poll numbers have been dropping since last spring, when Romney took Iowa and New Hampshire away from him. The realization has been intensifying that Rudy’s not going to be a player in the primary. Some negative publicity has been generated about Rudy, but it hasn’t been as much of a story as it would be if he was a contender in Iowa or New Hampshire. The fact that he’s not an early-state contender is the reason why he lost his lead in Florida more than a month away from the Florida primary. Rudy hasn’t changed, and the fact that he would make an excellent president hasn’t changed. What HAS changed is the perception of his candidacy, which has gradually been in transition from sure-fire winner to yesterday’s news. Rudy is the victim of his own slightly insane campaign strategy.
December 15th, 2007 at 12:39 pm
Bye, Bye Rudy!
December 15th, 2007 at 12:40 pm
I would like to see another poll to that shows Rudy behind in FL first to take it as a tend. The thing with the Rasmueen polls it loses a “Tighter Model” for what a likely voter is. That might play out in Iowa or NH, But FL I think Rasmueen my miss out how strong Rudy support is in Two Key Areas.
1. The First Time New Voters: Remember a New Voter is anyone who has not voted in a FL Primany before. It been likely since 1996 since you had a major FL Primany (McCain drop out the week inbetween super tuedsay and Southern Tuesday in 2000.) People some times take that to mean 20 year old college student. It is more likely to mean 65 Year Old Newyork. How many of Rass “Tighter Model” does thoses excludes that are going to vote.
2. More Moredates in General who will who ex Newyorks but voted before, or are out to vote because Crist got them out over the Tax Reform Issue on the Ballot. Once again Rass “Tighter Model” that has more Conservate bent.
December 15th, 2007 at 1:07 pm
#7. Now that is what I call informative and insightful post which is a rarity here. Kudos.
December 15th, 2007 at 1:10 pm
Haha!
Is this site paid by Romney?
Bye Bye Mitt….loser in Iowa and probably every other state except maybe NH where McCain may beat him anyway.
December 15th, 2007 at 1:30 pm
Kevin,
The short bus is ready to pick you up. Get your Ninja Turtles lunch box from your mom and hop on.
December 15th, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Kevin: It’s people like you that come on and say something that is so stupid, it makes your candidate look bad
December 15th, 2007 at 3:35 pm
looks like you rudy-haters have just give America to barrack hussein obama, hope you are proud of yourselves.
December 15th, 2007 at 4:33 pm
matt,
Apparently you have been missing the large number of people here who repeatedly post that they think Rudy would be a great #2 pick, or maybe a #3 pick.
Does that sound like hatred to you?
December 15th, 2007 at 5:25 pm
I’m a Mitt supporter, but I have mixed feelings on Rudy’s demise. Although I think it makes a Mitt victory more likely, it also makes a Huckabee victory more likely. I would take Rudy WAY ahead of clemency Huck. I felt more comfortable when it was between Mitt and Rudy — guaranteed to get a competent executive at least.
December 15th, 2007 at 5:38 pm
I agree 100% Slick Willy. Either Mitt or Rudy would be fine for us Fiscal Cons. Huckabee is a disaster.
If Huck’s the GOP nominee, I’ll personally lead a massive revolt to the Libertarian Party.
And the LP is running a great candidate this year in Wayne Root. He was just on Fox News an hour ago.
Watch out Hucksters. If you get your wish and your boy’s the GOP nominee, you’ll lose millions the GOP voters to the Libertarian Party.
December 15th, 2007 at 6:48 pm
Why is it that the Rudy supporters, other than TLG, MetroRepublican, and a very few ones, cannot discuss the points of weaknesses and strengths? Jason here tried to show why Rudy may not be doing as well with his firewall state. I admit it is a weak one, since there has been only one or two polls for Florida the past couple of weeks. But, come on, we can do better than sneering without giving points.
So, Kevin, care to explain why Mitt’s lost in Iowa will hurt him in NH WHEN almost no other candidate from either side ever win BOTH STATES?
December 15th, 2007 at 7:07 pm
Paul8184 (#7) Do you know that Florida has the requirement that you register as a voter 30 days before the primary. Unlikely some states, you cannot come in to a precinct, register then vote, all on the same day. You have to register early. In fact, you have until 29th of Dec. That’s only 2 weeks. Are Rudy grassroot organization busy getting their own supporters out to be registered? If not, then your fist point about Rasmussen missing the “new voters” may not matter that much.
Your second point is valid. However, one of the biggest issues we have discussed on this site often, is: will Rudy still be alive by the time we get to Florida, if he does not win a state? Many of us do think he will win one or two of them (Nevada and/or Michigan, perhaps), but you cannot deny that it is alarming to see how Huckabee’s boom has eroded Rudy’s number in many states.
For me personally, I see the Rudy/McCain/Fred crowd mostly alike. They are relatively comfortable with getting behind one of these three candidates, at least, moresoever than they would with Mitt and Huckabee. I think the R/M/F supporters in NH will get behind whoever finish third in Iowa, be it McCain, Fred or Rudy, helping securing that candidate’s second place there. That will lead to the domino effect with the rest of the states where those supporters may get behind that one candidate. The big question is, will it be enough to knock out either Huckabee or Mitt?
December 15th, 2007 at 10:24 pm
15 – ERIK
Amen. If Huck wins, I will officially leave the Republican party. Imagine if someone used Islam to gain support in the U.S. like Huckabee uses his religion. The same people supporting Huckabee would be outraged and would consider it a national security threat.