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Let’s look inside the Rasmussen Iowa numbers for Romney and Huckabee.
First, we should point out that Romney’s overall numbers have not been dramatically affected in Iowa. For all the incredible movement that Huckabee has shown (going from 16% to 39% in one month) Romney has only lost 6% in Iowa. So where did the other Huckabee gains come from?
Well, the straight forward math shows Rudy shedding 7 points, Thompson shedding 6, Tancredo and Hunter give 1, and 2 more from November undecideds. In short, according to last week’s poll, Huckabee has taken votes from all parties.
The inside numbers give us some more details.
In short, Huckabee seems to do well with religious women who are having trouble deciding who to pick and who want a change in government because of the lapse in ethics. At least, that’s my take.
I believe that if Romney can get himself within 5 points of Huckabee he might be able to win this thing in Iowa after all.
In the end, Huckabee may be the best thing to ever happen to Romney. Recall that many pundits (including many on this site) dismissed Romney’s Iowa Straw Poll win because he “was gonna win anyways” and everyone pulled out. With Huckbee as the polling favorite, a win by Romney guarantees momentum compared to a easy sailing victory.
Last point, the King endorsement will certainly help Thompson but may even help Romney in the end. Romney’s lowest range of support (and Huckabee’s highest) remains in western Iowa with King’s district. Does King’s nod tear votes away from Huckabee to Thompson leaving Romney to edge out a victory.
December 17th, 2007 at 1:37 pm
Nice Spin, but telling everyone your guy doesn’t win the GOP part of the state probably not the best move.
December 17th, 2007 at 1:40 pm
There you have it ROMBOTS, attack Huck for his ethical lapses, his addiction for gifts from special interests and his selling of pardons and your rosey scenario might come true.
Sit on your hands and wait for Huck to fall on his own and you will leave us with Huckanominee and Huckacide and Hillary or B. Hussien Obama as President.
December 17th, 2007 at 1:40 pm
So I’m being accused of spin and honesty?
Also, when you say “everyone”, do you mean the 3000 people who visit this site daily, 90% of whom have already made up their minds?
December 17th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
#1 huh?
December 17th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
Romney has spent $8 mil in Iowa, LOL! Great business acumen.
If either Huckabee or Obama is nominated respectively for their parties – that is, either one, or both – then it is almost a certainty Mike Bloomberg will run. Then a person who *really* is in the top tier of business success willbe in the race.
December 17th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
I doubt it, but who knows? It will be interesting to find out.
Your analysis of the numbers was interesting however. Thanks for that.
December 17th, 2007 at 1:55 pm
RUSH Ripping Huck for calling Bush foreign policy as an “arrogant bunker mentality.” Just called Huckabee followers CULTISTS!!
December 17th, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Rush and Huck in a pissing contest. This ought to be interesting.
December 17th, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Rudy begins cratering in New York of all places:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1129
Rudy is at 34% down from 45% during their last poll in October.
Meanwhile Huckabee comes in second at 12% barely edging out McCain at 11%.
Rudy’s strategy was a complete disaster. He is already suffering the effects of early state momentum before the voting even starts. Hopefully, whoever pitched him this strategy, never works for another Republican.
December 17th, 2007 at 1:57 pm
#1 – ????
December 17th, 2007 at 1:59 pm
I wonder how many of Rush’s 14 million listeners are Huckabee fans in Iowa.
December 17th, 2007 at 1:59 pm
“Romney has spent $8 mil in Iowa, LOL! Great business acumen.”
Hardly a correlation. Nice try though. Trying to knock Romney on his business record is a losing battle. The guy is a business genius.
December 17th, 2007 at 2:00 pm
Rudy’s problem isn’t one of strategy. Rudy’s problem is that he is pro-”choice”, pro gay rights, anti second
amendment, and had a mistress and a wife being ferryed around NYC and the Hamptons at the same time and at taxpayer expense.
What strategy could ever fix all of that?
December 17th, 2007 at 2:04 pm
nice analysis Justin. Maybe Romney or Thompson should start running this report done by nbc. they would be well-advised to.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Jg0ozeLZI0
Huck has all kinds of ethical issues.
December 17th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Nothing can hide how far Romney has fallen hard in Iowa.
http://www.political-buzz.com/
December 17th, 2007 at 2:06 pm
#7 WOW
December 17th, 2007 at 2:07 pm
QuacknHack,
Those are real problems, but the strategy is still awful. Rudy spent 2007 practically inviting someone to run away with it in early states. Then when his national polls started tanking on the mere anticipation of early state losses, Rudy goes and scales back NH ads. Brilliant.
December 17th, 2007 at 2:08 pm
Regarding Romney’s business acumen, it appears he uses the famous cayman island tax shelters.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-mittoffshore17dec17,1,2954108.story?coll=la-headlines-nation&ctrack=1&cset=true
December 17th, 2007 at 2:08 pm
Folks there are still a couple of weeks until IA voters cast their votes. I am not saying one way or the other which way this is going to go, as there is still plenty of time for people to change their minds.
December 17th, 2007 at 2:14 pm
William – I know you want to think that I’m scared or worried about the Western Wats polling but you’re just being silly to think I posted this as some type of cover up to push your precious “I’m not telling but I’m sure insinuating” post down the front page.
I know this story better than anyone here and I’m not the least bit worried about some Romney backlash.
Go fishing elsewhere.
December 17th, 2007 at 2:17 pm
19. Rudy still has an FL scenario. If he wins FL, he will do well in CA, NY, NJ and other places. If I were Fred or McCain, I would trade my scenario for Rudy’s in 2 seconds. McCain has a NH only strategy which will probably fail even if he wins NH if he can’t follow with a strong showing in SC, where he isn’t on the radar. I have no idea what Fred’s plan is, unless its wait from someone else to collapse and get lucky.
If the polls in IA NH SC and FL hold where they are today, Huck wins. The polls today do not reflect the benefit of an IA win, and Huck has low expectations in NH. Those who think as I do that Huck would be very bad for the party had better start thinking of a stop Huck strategy.
Romney’s polls have looked better since his big speech even though the pundits have missed it because they are gushering over Huck. But if Romney cannot go toe to toe with Huck in IA, what makes him think he can do that in SC? Thompson will make his last stand in SC, McCain might have a bounce from NH and a base among veterans. Romney is all downside no upside in MI, which has been below the radar. Romney’s win is also baked into the cake in NH. No expectation upside if Romney wins there.
December 17th, 2007 at 2:19 pm
#16. actually if you look athte rcp averages, huck’s bounce seems to be over. romney’s curve is upward adn his is downward. the bombardmenst seems to have had an impact on those rational voters.
cliff, if you think bloomberg is a better business man than mitt, is it becuas he is worth mor money? f that is true, your criteria is lame. read this on mitt. He could have more assets than bloomberg but he basically gave them away.
remember this post: http://race42008.com/2007/12/12/the-house-that-mitt-built/
December 17th, 2007 at 2:21 pm
Axel, that’s called being intelligent. I benefit from these insane tax treaties too.
December 17th, 2007 at 2:28 pm
Richard,
Sure its great if you are rich and want to hide money, but terrible if you are a politician.
December 17th, 2007 at 2:38 pm
Dude, Romney’s not hiding money. Why the hell would he hide money? He may be taking advantage of some LEGAL tax laws though. I do it through some of the companies I’ve invest in.
December 17th, 2007 at 2:47 pm
I heard Rush this morning talking with great concern about Huckabee. Rush doesn’t seem to like what Huck said about Pres. Bush last week or Huck’s fiscal liberal problems. Do you think this will hurt in Iowa?
December 17th, 2007 at 2:47 pm
Perhaps you do not understand the word “shelter.” It means “to hide.”
December 17th, 2007 at 2:49 pm
If your an Arkansas Democrat…a Republican that wins in your state is a ethical issue…..:)
December 17th, 2007 at 2:53 pm
Hillary was called out today for hiding money in the Cayman Islands as well.
December 17th, 2007 at 2:53 pm
William,
I know you may not grasp it, but hte nature of the blog is to have new stories. Your story, however exciting and subjected to the whisperings of other campaigns, cannot stay at the top of the blog forever.
December 17th, 2007 at 3:01 pm
MJN, i don’t htink it will hurt him in iowa. hucks support is almost completly evangelical. If God tells them to vote for him, it doesn’t matter how bad huckabee is, they will supoprt him.
that is the problem with religion and politics. you can’t even question your leaders if you think that God is why they were elected. that is why it is so stupid to believe that in the first place.
religion thrives when it is not involved in governmetn. our constition and history prove that. for religious people to want to throw that out the windwo will only doom religion in thend. look at hcurch attendance where there is governmetn establishemtn of religion. exactly. it is virtually non existent.
December 17th, 2007 at 4:16 pm
William, If your article is pivotal or interesting it will draw it’s crowd. Blaming another writer for people’s lack of interest in your own writing is what we call “in denial”.
December 17th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
#33 I saw that on Drudge. Hillary has a lot of stuff the media is letting her get away with. Some Saudis also gave money to Clinton for his library.
December 19th, 2007 at 6:02 pm
[...] line. Remember those religious women having trouble deciding who to vote for and taking a hard look at Huckabee? They changed their mind. McCain is taking about half of the crowd leaving the Huck auditorium. [...]