The Candidates
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- Mike Huckabee 23% (25%)
- Mitt Romney 23% (18%)
- John McCain 12% (9%)
- Fred Thompson 12% (18%)
- Rudy Giuliani 11% (12%)
- Ron Paul 5% (4%)
- Some other candidate 2% (2%)
Survey of 724 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted December 16. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 3-4 are in parentheses.
December 17th, 2007 at 4:53 pm
What Romney Gaining and the Huckster Dropping……
Couldn’t be…….
December 17th, 2007 at 4:54 pm
Huckabee wants his Christmas Present today…..
Time is not his friened…….
December 17th, 2007 at 4:56 pm
Let’s all freak out about statistical variation in a poll!
December 17th, 2007 at 4:56 pm
Nice move in SC by Romney. That rise in conjunction with what is going on in IA. I wonder if SC voters can see the Huckaboom for what it is and are a little more rational in their support for a candidate. I think the ONLY way for us to win the general is to stand on all 3 legs of the “stool”. I think Romney and Fred are the 2 in the race that can deliver on that. Let’s hope the other voters can see the same thing.
December 17th, 2007 at 4:56 pm
Why are there two posts that are the same? Was there a race or something?
December 17th, 2007 at 4:57 pm
You are a little behind Aron…
December 17th, 2007 at 4:57 pm
The Huck-a-bust has commenced.
December 17th, 2007 at 4:57 pm
It’s intresting to note that Huckabee’s support is really only with evangelical christians. Other chistian bases prefer Romney. Huckabee’s likeability has gone down as well. This was a very surprising poll
December 17th, 2007 at 4:59 pm
it shows that huckabee is not viable in a general in my opinion. it also shows that romney is not afraid of a challenge and that he is confident in his message and ability, unlike giuliani.
giuliani’s advisors are makinga huge mistake.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:00 pm
Note that Rudy’s 11% is the second lowest he’s gotten in SC.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:02 pm
Chris,
SHHHHHHH…..
The HUCK-A-BUST has Commmenced…..
But it is a secret…..
No one is supposed to know about it until JAN. 3RD!!!!
December 17th, 2007 at 5:04 pm
Lets just hope that Romney can also move up in IA. After the King endorsement went to Thompson, I’m afraid that Romney is not going to get the spotlight that he needs to take down Huck, and, combined with a bump for Thompson, he is not going to have an easy next 17 days.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:04 pm
Abe – I like your enthusiasm but your Huckabust comments are even wearing me down
I’d accuse you of selling something… but no one can sell a Huckabee product now. Not even an anti-Huckabee product.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:05 pm
for about the first six months I read this forum, everyone said romney wouldn’t hardly get any votes at all in SC because he’s Mormon. now, i think romney is still an underdog in this race, but I think its funny how people we’re so sure romney couldn’t play at all in SC, and hes doing just fine. maybe this poll is an outlier, but you don’t show in any poll tied for the lead if you aren’t viable in the state.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:06 pm
You “Huck-a-Bust” people are incredible, grasping at any little thing that might give you hope.
This poll shows Huckabee down 2 points, with an MoE of 4. In other words, the MoE is TWICE Huckabee’s supposed big drop. In other, other words, we can’t even say with certainty that he dropped at all.
Get a grip.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:06 pm
Question to all of you Huck-a-bust theorists. When you say Jan 3rd do you mean after he wins Iowa he will fizzle or do you think that Romney will actually pull off Iowa?
I pray that Romney doesnt win Iowa.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:07 pm
MWS…I responded to the fall of Huck in the previous post!
ACT…a boost for Fred may help Mitt in Iowa by taking some of Huck’s supporters.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:08 pm
This isn’t quite a “huckabust” but its the first news in weeks from Rasmussen that wasn’t good for Huck.
The news isn’t Huck, its Romney. I am no Rombot, but he has been moving up slowly in various polls ever since the speech.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:08 pm
#14 Romney is definitely viable in South Carolina. He’s a fairly conservative candidate in a very conservative state. Giuliani and McCain will struggle in South Carolina. Thompson, Romney, and Huckabee should do well. One of them should win it.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:09 pm
“I pray that Romney doesnt win Iowa.”
who do you support?
December 17th, 2007 at 5:10 pm
I am curious whether Fred will actually campaign as necessary to take advantage of his recent endorsements and refusal to answer a moderator. If not, then it is the same FDT that teased voters then fizzled!
December 17th, 2007 at 5:11 pm
19, If McCain does well in NH, SC has enough veterans and security conservatives that McCain will be in the mix too.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:11 pm
“He’s a fairly conservative”
what isn’t he conservative on?
I know he supports some gun control measures, and I know he is something of a supporter of the NCLBA, but other than that…I think “fairly” is an understatement.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:15 pm
I’m not sure this poll isn’t an outlier, but it could be accurate. Rasmussen has had curious state polling recently. IE, they have Huckabee leading Florida with Rudy in 3rd, which doesn’t pass the smell test.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:15 pm
Justin,
Don’t worry Jan. 3rd is coming soon enough….
But not too soon….
December 17th, 2007 at 5:17 pm
Romney’s gain corresponds with Giuliani’s loss. Rudy being 5th in a state he once led in is no longer surprising at all. Some of his support is shifting to Mitt, and after McCain drops out after the New Hampshire Primary, a disproportionate share of his support in South Carolina will also go to Mitt. Romney has excellent propects in South Carolina.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:19 pm
One more point. Like Florida and New Hampshire. Thompson is bottoming out, leading the loss leaders with a 6% decline.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
Huck needs to prove he can appeal to more than those really religious evangelicals. they are significant, but not enough. virtually all of his support in iowa, new hampshire, and south carolina comes from this one group. read the cross tabs in the poll. romney kills him with ‘non evangelicas’ and less religous types.
This is why i am convinced he does not win the nod.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
Its bad for Fred. His best scenario is a 3rd place showing in IA propels him in SC after finishing last in NH. Fred is in big trouble.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:25 pm
“Among those who say a candidate’s faith and religion is Very Important, Huckabee leads Romney 36% to 14%. Among those who say it is Somewhat Important, Romney has a five point advantage, 26% to 21%. Among the third of South Carolina’s Likely Primary voters to whom a candidate’s faith and religion is not important, Huckabee earns just 10% support. Romney attracts support from 29% of these voters.
Huckabee is supported by 42% of Evangelical Christians and 16% of other Protestant voters. Romney attracts just 12% of Evangelical voters but earns the vote from a plurality (28%) of other Protestants. “
December 17th, 2007 at 5:26 pm
THE HUCK A BUST HAS LANDED
December 17th, 2007 at 5:27 pm
I have found it interesting that one of the big things that Giuliani supporters push is that Rudy does not run from a challenge. He is the one to keep America safe from the jihadists. Yet over and over again we see him retreating from a contest he isn’t expected to win, while Romney toughs it out and (usually) ultimately triumphs.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:30 pm
Let’s assume that “Huck-a-Bust” happens. There no good reason to presume that after 2 weeks of whithering fire, but let’s play out the scenario.
If Huck loses Iowa badly, and is no longer considered viable where do SoCons go?
My guess it won’t be to the guys who’ve been taking pot shots at their first choice.
I think in SC, McCain would have the most to gain if this imaginary “Huck-a-Bust” ever comes to fruition.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:32 pm
marK,
“while Romney toughs it out and (usually) ultimately triumphs.”
Dude. The vote counting doesn’t start for about 2 1/2 weeks.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:33 pm
Possibly MWS, but if Romney does pull out an Iowa victory, momentum will assure him a NH victory, despite a possible bump to McCain. 2 victories will lead to a strong showing for Mitt in Michigan and Nevada and propel him to SC.
If McCain can do well in NH, then you may be right and McCain might have a chance in Iowa.
The Democrat race also plays into this…if Obama beats or competes with Hillary in Iowa, then NH will be big for Dems and many Indies may vote in that primary (hurting McCain in NH)
December 17th, 2007 at 5:33 pm
Actually NH voters have begun!
December 17th, 2007 at 5:33 pm
Fred could finish 6th or 7th in NH at this point. Running a distant 3rd in his firewall doesn’t make the situation any better.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:35 pm
ilfigo,
But the vote counting hasn’t, thus, there is no basis for declaring any Romney “triumphs.”
December 17th, 2007 at 5:38 pm
True…I think Mark meant that Romney has toughened it out in Iowa, NH and SC and has led, leading or within striking distance, rather than packing up and “retreating”
December 17th, 2007 at 5:42 pm
I support Jmac, then Rudy, then Huck, then Fred and lastly Romney.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:43 pm
No, I was talking about all the zillions of straw polls. I am talking about the challenges Romney faced as governor, as CEO of the Olympics, of turning around countless “hopeless” companies.
Romney does not run from challenges, he embraces them. Rudy used to be that way, but I have seen little sign of that old fighting Rudy in the past year. What happened?
December 17th, 2007 at 5:52 pm
marK,
Gotcha. I took your remark within the context of the campaign itself.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:53 pm
Nobody is talking about it, and I have no way of knowing, but I wonder if rudy is simply running out of money. Is that possible? McCain has already been basicaly bankrupt.
Does anyone truly know Rudy’s money situation? Not speculation, but really know?
December 17th, 2007 at 6:46 pm
Abe, I like your mantra – the Huckabust is coming, commencing, whatever — it actually gives me hope. I just want to know what you know that we don’t know.
December 17th, 2007 at 6:52 pm
#40 BrettS
Do you think that all JMac voters place Romney last, even after Huck, as a reflection of the hatred that Jmac has for Romney? Or is it just a coincidence?
December 18th, 2007 at 8:47 am
I’m hoping the SC poll is a foreshadowing of a trend. Romney’s abilities are incredible. Hopefully the country will recognize that….soon!
About Rudy I think that between the boatload of bad press the week before Romney’s speech, the huge amount of press surrounding Romney’s speech and Huckabee’s poll numbers simply combined to deflate interest in Rudy. It’s been a long campaign.
December 18th, 2007 at 8:49 am
I’m hoping the SC poll is a foreshadowing of a trend. Romney’s abilities are incredible. Hopefully the country will recognize that….soon!
About Rudy, I think that Rudy’s boatload of negative press the week before Romney’s speech, the huge amount of press surrounding Romney’s speech and Huckabee’s poll numbers simply combined to deflate interest in Rudy.
It’s been a long campaign.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:26 am
Columbia, South Carolina, December 18, 2007 (IMNS & Politisite.com) — A new Rasmussen Poll has Governor Huckabee and Governor Romney in a statistical dead heat with both candidates at 23% from the last poll taken December 3rd.
The Romney campaign has been advertising heavily throughout South Carolina with negative ads directed towards Huckabee’s record. Another organization, ClubforGrowth.net has spent 200,000 dollars in South Carolina running ads entitled “United,†the ad asks people to call Mike Huckabee and challenge him on his tax policy as Governor. When you go to the site and view the taxes he increased, you will find mostly “sin” type taxes like cigarettes and beer. The ads appear to be effecting his numbers as Huckabee is down 2 percentage points while Romney has gained 5.
The Huckabee campaign is also advertising heavily focusing on the positive side of the equation. Today a non political ad wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and to enjoy time with family during the holiday season. The other campaigns are not advertising as often as the Huckabee and Romney Camp here,
Fred Thompson has lost 6 points to 12% and McCain gains 3% to 12%. Mayor Giuliani loses 1 point to 11%. Ron Paul, who raised six million dollars in one day is at 5% up one percentage point from the last poll. In an Iron Mill News & Politisite Poll, Ron Paul wins the yard sign Poll by a huge margin.