That is apparently the Guiliani campaign’s new strategy after they have all but decided to abandon New Hampshire. This is a truly mind numbing decision. New Hampshire is Rudy’s strongest state other than Florida. His support in Iowa, Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina has been sucked up by Mike Huckabee. So, with Mitt Romney preoccupied in Iowa, Rudy could have attempted a strong first or second place finish. Instead, he’s falling back to Florida in hopes of stages a last stand. All this comes after not a single vote has been cast. Imagine what will happen when Romney, Huckabee and McCain start winning primaries and suck up all the media attention. There’s a whole 3 and a half weeks between Iowa and Florida where Rudy would effectively be either shut out entirely or have dozens of “What happened to Rudy?” pieces written. That’s why New Hampshire was vital to his campaign. I just don’t understand what he’s thinking.
The New York Sun has the gory details of Rudy’s full scale NH retreat:
Rudolph Giuliani’s decision to largely abandon the early voting state of New Hampshire and concentrate his efforts on the Florida primary three weeks later reflects an uncomfortable truth for the former New York mayor: The more he campaigned in the Granite State and the more he spent on advertising there, the more his poll numbers dropped.
Mr. Giuliani appears to be making a virtue of necessity by sounding the retreat in New Hampshire, where he continues to be outgunned by the Republican front-runner there, Mitt Romney, and where he has been beaten into second place by the resurgent campaign of Senator McCain.
He must now be sure to win Florida on January 29 to capture its large cache of delegates, as part of a strategy that sees him withdrawing from the smaller early states in favor of states such as New York, California, and Florida, which send large numbers of delegates to the nominating convention.
However, the wisdom of that strategy was cast in doubt yesterday by the latest poll in Mr. Giuliani’s home state of New York showing the mayor’s lead over his nearest Republican rivals cut by 11 points. …
Although the mayor was never likely to win New Hampshire, where Mr. Romney has invested a great deal of time and money, Mr. Giuliani had sought to prevent the former Massachusetts governor from gaining national momentum with an easy win there.
Mr. Giuliani’s gambit of leaving Mr. Huckabee to diminish Mr. Romney’s early lead in Iowa, and thereby put the New Hampshire result in doubt, appears to have backfired.
The former Arkansas governor is now not only the favorite to win Iowa but is quickly gaining ground on Mr. Giuliani both in New Hampshire and in national polls, which until early December showed the mayor enjoying a substantial lead.
The Giuliani campaign is now sharply cutting advertising on Boston television stations aimed at neighboring New Hampshire. Figures reported by the Nashua Telegraph tell the scale of his retreat.
Having spent $102,745 on advertisements on WHDH on December 5, Mr. Giuliani slashed spending to $40,700 on December 11. Over the same period, the Giuliani ad spending on WFXT dropped to $20,000 a week from $67,000. On WBZ and WSBK, the Giuliani campaign has halved its spending. And the $20,300 worth of airtime bought on WLVI on December 5 was canceled six days later.
Rudy should expect his numbers to drop within the next week or so. Remember what happened to Fred Thompson when he decided to skip the NH debate in favor of announcing on Leno. The state will now likely come down to a Romney vs. McCain death match, the win of which will likely emerge as the anti-Huckabee candidate in the latter primaries.
December 18th, 2007 at 3:00 am
I hope McCain wins NH. Then if Huckabee wins the nomination, he will make McCain VP. If McCain wins the nomination, he could make Huckabee VP.
Huckabee / McCain!
If that doesn’t work out:
McCain / Huckabee!
December 18th, 2007 at 3:05 am
Calling Metro . . . I think I said various times that Rudy’s ads wouldn’t get him much (nor would his stumping/speeches) because his “hero status” from 9/11 is hard to improve upon. Voters actually seeing him discuss the controversial issues of the day have made them forget “Mr. 9/11″
Or are you still holding to your “he’s holding his best cards for later” line of reasoning? Surely he’d play those cards before retreating out of NH.
And for a guy who’s so “unafraid of the the terrorists” why can’t he stick in at least one state that he’s not favored in? Just seems silly to me.
December 18th, 2007 at 3:10 am
Does a 5th or 6th in followed by a 2nd in NH give McCain any momentum thereafter?
I’m just not seeing that scenario. And I don’t see how McCain wins NH . . . especially with the Dem race tightening.
The “crosstabs” of the NH polling is just so favorable for Romney right now. Not only does he hold a 13%+ advantage in the polls, but he’s the preferred second choice for every other candidate. He also has the highest percentage of “definitely will vote for him” supporters in NH.
December 18th, 2007 at 3:11 am
Wiseguy, I think a McCain-Huckabee ticket is the strongest we have to offer.
I could envision a 40 state victory with that ticket.
December 18th, 2007 at 3:21 am
the problem with the guiliani florida strategy is this: the race in florida is very very close. now if new york and florida were switched it would make sense. but betting the farm on a state that some polls have you leading, and some don’t, just doesn’t seem to make sense.
December 18th, 2007 at 4:43 am
It’s amazing how fast this race ballooned to five candidates, and now cut to three. Only Romney, Huckabee, and McCain now have feasible scenarios.
If Giuliani won’t compete for Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, or Nevada, he’s through. Period. He’s seeing now how crucial momentum is, enough to realize that a hard-fought, embarrassing loss in NH would hurt his chances elsewhere.
Now that Giuliani is no longer a likely nominee, a lot of folks need to start switching to and shouting for Romney. ABH this year. ABH. Anyone.
December 18th, 2007 at 5:46 am
Jeff, Guiliani is saving his best material for 2108.
EGS that ticket would have a lot of potential
December 18th, 2007 at 6:04 am
I’ve been a Giuliani supporter for a year – and still am – but I agree that if Rudy doesn’t make plays for NH and MI and NV, he’ll probably lose FL to Ned Flanders err…Huckabee. I would say to Romney supporters to be careful about hoping for Rudy’s demise. If Rudy’s numbers start to fall that will benefit McCain in NH. McCain’s 19 added to Giuliani’s 17 in NH beat Romney’s 32. And Romney won’t stay at 32 if Flanders hands him a defeat in IA. If Romney loses in IA then McCain could come back in SC too. I have no idea how this plays out.
December 18th, 2007 at 6:07 am
What about the possibilty of an under-the-table deal with McCain to take Mitt out in New Hampshire. Perhaps Rudy views Mitt as the biggest threat, so he bets on Huck taking out Mitt in Iowa and John taking out Mitt in New Hampshire. Rudy recognizes that he can’t win NH, so he agrees with John that he will retreat and urge his supporters to vote for McCain to fend of Mitt. Then perhaps he hopes that Mitt wins Michigan and Huck wins SC, thus no one has any momentum heading into Florida, giving Giuliani a greater liklihood of winning that state. If indeed Rudy wins the nomination look for a Rudy/McCain ticket.
December 18th, 2007 at 6:07 am
I believe the state to watch for Rudy is Nevada. If he can win NV he will get the momentum back on his side for Florida. Do we have any new polls from Nevada?
December 18th, 2007 at 6:08 am
well put Adam. That is the concern.
December 18th, 2007 at 6:09 am
Metro:
All in good fun. What happened to the Giuliani surge, the one where we were just waiting for some airtime?
Adam:
Ned Flanders – LOL What about Gomer Pyle aka Jim Nabors?
December 18th, 2007 at 6:10 am
Jeff,
“Voters actually seeing him discuss the controversial issues of the day have made them forget “Mr. 9/11?
That’s one way to look at it. Another way to look at it is that Present-Day Republicans have an obsession with injecting God and religion into the debate. Still another way to look at it is that Present-Day Republicans have an obsession with injecting God and religion into the debate and the media is only too happy to keep that discussion going because they know full well that the longer the focus is on these issues, the better the chances of alienating centrists and moderates in the general election and having them defect to the Democrats out of fear of a Theocracy.
December 18th, 2007 at 6:10 am
Jeff,
“Voters actually seeing him discuss the controversial issues of the day have made them forget “Mr. 9/11?
That’s one way to look at it. Another way to look at it is that Present-Day Republicans have an obsession with injecting God and religion into the debate. Still another way to look at it is that Present-Day Republicans have an obsession with injecting God and religion into the debate and the media is only too happy to keep that discussion going because they know full well that the longer the focus is on these issues, the better the chances of alienating centrists and moderates in the general election and having them defect to the Democrats out of fear of a Theocracy.
December 18th, 2007 at 6:11 am
Jeff,
Voters actually seeing him discuss the controversial issues of the day have made them forget “Mr. 9/11
That’s one way to look at it. Another way to look at it is that Present-Day Republicans have an obsession with injecting God and religion into the debate. Still another way to look at it is that Present-Day Republicans have an obsession with injecting God and religion into the debate and the media is only too happy to keep that discussion going because they know full well that the longer the focus is on these issues, the better the chances of alienating centrists and moderates in the general election and having them defect to the Democrats out of fear of a Theocracy.
December 18th, 2007 at 6:15 am
No idea why that printed three times. Sorry.
December 18th, 2007 at 6:56 am
I suspect the correct answer is “bust.”
Nice try, but not really, America’s Mayor. It’s been fun, but not really. Better luck next time. Don’t forget to write. Aloha. Auf weidersehn. Bye bye.
But it’s been an interesting race. Who knows what might happen….
December 18th, 2007 at 7:55 am
Joe Scarborough this morning, “After the baby Jesus ad, IA is over.” Joe believes Huckabee’s “perfect” ad seals IA for him. With McCain making a move in NH, Romney could get knocked out before SC and that makes Giuliani a player still. McCain will lose SC. If Thompson wins it, I think its a fight for the South between Huck and Fred. If Huck wins he would have to take on Rudy in FL. If Huck wins Fl, the nomination is his.
December 18th, 2007 at 7:56 am
While Rudy’s support has fallen considerably, he is still first or second in the national polls and at the top in most state polls. He’s still in the race. As for Huckabee, can his ascent to the top not be compared to Thompson’s?
December 18th, 2007 at 8:02 am
With states that are seen as locks for Rudy, New York, New Jersey, other northeastern states; does this counter any early state defeats he encounters?
Also, I don’t see momentum as being as big of a factor this year. The states that moved their primaries to Feb. 5th did so with the intent to gain an increased amount of influence. I see this as giving them the motivation to maintain their positions to ensure that their influence is heard. Perhaps I am wrong, but I don’t see this playing out traditionally. Rudy may still lose, but this is as close to a national primary as there has been.
On another note, Ron Paul could potentially raise $20 million this quarter. Are there any fundraising estimates for the other candidates yet?
December 18th, 2007 at 8:13 am
I really hope Rudy actually internals that suggest that his ads were responsible for his NH drop, rather then simply something that happened concurrently with a drop across the country. I mean, Rudy dropped by 2-3 in NH. He dropped by 6-9 in Iowa, sometimes 13-14 in SC, 8-10 in Florida. When we consider that NH’s also seen McCain surge, a 2-3 point drop in comparison ought to be pretty acceptable; I don’t see any reason to suspect that the ads had hurt his case. Which means that this looks like another boneheaded moved for Rudy; the last FoxNews NH poll, showed that 67% of Giuliani’s supporters had Romney as their second choice. Just 22% chose McCain. Other polls have shown similar, though smaller, gaps. So if Rudy’s supports drops, now that’s he scaled back his operation, it’s probably only going to help Mitt solidify his lead.
December 18th, 2007 at 8:13 am
Shawnie — All in good fun. What happened to the Giuliani surge, the one where we were just waiting for some airtime?
Sadly, it died, along with Mitt’s inevitability in Iowa and his national poll numbers that were going to rise as soon as everyone knew who he was…
December 18th, 2007 at 8:13 am
Mornin’ folks.
I admitted last week that there was unlikely to be a shock-and-awe campaign by Rudy in the pre-FL states, especially after Team Rudy made a surprising post on this very site in response to my hopes that there would be one. (See #33 here: http://race42008.com/2007/12/10/poll-watch-nytimescbs-national-gop/ which I have no doubt is the kind of carefully crafted wording that comes from the campaign itself. They’re the only ones who refer to him as “the Mayor” for one.)
Chapter 7 in Rudy’s book is devoted to lowering expectations and then surpassing them. You can’t deny he’s doing an amazing job of the first part.
We won’t know about the second part until the coming weeks.
I think there is truth to most of the statements above. Rudy’s original strategy assumed no one person would win all pre-FL states. When it looked like Mitt might do that, he had to increase his presence in those states. I believe Team Rudy has simply moved from Plan B back to Plan A.
I believe that FL and CA voters (not to mention IL, NY, NJ, etc) are eager to flex their newfound muscles, and I believe Rudy long been studying the perfect pitch urging them to do so.
I also believe Rudy is planning a 1976-style primary campaign, where Reagan reversed Ford’s momentum halfway through the primaries and every state and delegate was fought over. Rudy’s plan is centered on the delegate math and allocation. I suggest you all read up on the 1976 primaries.
December 18th, 2007 at 8:15 am
Which means that this looks like another boneheaded moved for Rudy; the last FoxNews NH poll, showed that 67% of Giuliani’s supporters had Romney as their second choice. Just 22% chose McCain. Other polls have shown similar, though smaller, gaps. So if Rudy’s supports drops, now that’s he scaled back his operation, it’s probably only going to help Mitt solidify his lead.
Somehow I think that the Giuliani campaign knows something that Matthew E. Miller does not, or at least has a different scenario in mind for how they want this to play down. This race is utter chaos right now.
December 18th, 2007 at 8:15 am
Ben, the states Team Rudy referred to as “momentum-proof” were NY, NJ, CT and DE. And they are all winner-take-all for a total of 201 delegates.
December 18th, 2007 at 8:18 am
I will also note that the smart money still gives Rudy a big lead at Intrade. All of you who said that Intrade just follows the polls are being proven wrong. Actually, you were proven wrong the instant you said it, since, for example, Intrade has valued Mitt at 2-3 times his national polling for most of this year.
December 18th, 2007 at 8:19 am
And TLG makes a point I forgot: The race is in chaos. That’s always been a good thing for Rudy.
December 18th, 2007 at 8:22 am
If Huck does get the nod, who are his potential veep candidates? I would assume someone who knows foreign policy and someone who likes lower taxes.
December 18th, 2007 at 8:31 am
TLG,
“Somehow I think that the Giuliani campaign knows something that Matthew E. Miller does not, or at least has a different scenario in mind for how they want this to play down. This race is utter chaos right now.”
I’m sure Team Rudy knows something I don’t. I hope they do, because there’s still a real, albeit diminishing, chance that Rudy ends up our nominee in spite of all this. And I’d hate to have a nominee who made such poor moves that an undergrad college student noticed the insanity. Perhaps Team Rudy expects that with the bit of momentum of McCain has, any supporters that switch allegiances are most likely to switch to him. But, again I hope they have data to support this, because I’ve spent the last few days poring over the NH internals, and I see no reason to believe that McCain’s the likely beneficiary of disenchanted Rudy supporters.
December 18th, 2007 at 8:32 am
Huck-McCain, if JMac would accept it.
Huck-Pawlenty makes sense, except the foreign policy side.
Huck-Hunter makes a lot of sense, especially since they are both liberals on free trade.
So long as Huckabee is atop any GOP ticket, I will vote Democratic — including in all state and local races, until the GOP gets the idea that a God party is unacceptable in the United States.
December 18th, 2007 at 8:38 am
Matt, there are reasons Rudy might prefer Mitt to win NH:
1. McCain could replace Rudy in the race as the candidate with anti-terrorist gravitas, who is an alternative to the Huck-Romney religious war, and who holds appeal to moderates.
2. Since there is effectively no race on the Dem side in Mich and that primary is open to independents, McCain may be more strongly favored to win it than we think, especially if he outperforms expectations in NH. A Huck/Mitt/McCain split of the first 3 contests is great for Rudy.
3. If Mitt wins MI after NH and it’s a Huck/Mitt race, then Rudy’s got more ammo for his message to FL/CA/etc voters: (1) We are at war and the GOP must nominate a candidate with anti-terrorist gravitas, and Huck/Mitt is a false alternative. (2) The storyline of the Huck/Mitt battle is that of a religious war, and the winner of such a war would be damaged goods as far as independents are concerned in November. This may be a stronger position than trying to present himself as an alternative to Huck/McCain, where taxes/trust would be the differentiating factor.
December 18th, 2007 at 8:43 am
If Huck gets the Repub nom, I will defect and vote Democratic. Huck is the most dangerous man on either list of candidates. Dangerous to THIS country.
December 18th, 2007 at 8:51 am
Metro,
“I also believe Rudy is planning a 1976-style primary campaign, where Reagan reversed Ford’s momentum halfway through the primaries and every state and delegate was fought over. Rudy’s plan is centered on the delegate math and allocation. I suggest you all read up on the 1976 primaries.”
The trouble with that strategy is that the primaries are no longer the long, drawn out marathons they once were. Sure, the pre-voting phase is long and drawn out, but once the voting actually begins, this will be a mad scramble (think of that lotto game when people try to grab all the cash they can in a vacuum tube).
With the primaries stacked one on top of another, it will be difficult, if not impossible, for Rudy to change the narrative from the early stats. I think once the voting starts, this will be a one act play. We will know who the nominee will be on Feb. 6 (well those of us staying up late will know Feb. 5). And that person will be the one who controls the one month narrative that will begin on Jan. 3. Huck and Romney are obviously the best positioned to do this. McCain has a small chance to make a reversal in NH, but Rudy really seems out of the game. His Florida and Super Tuesday support is eroding, and I don’t see how he reverses that without at least one (probably two) pre-Florida wins.
The big states, in their attempt to minimize the influence of Iowa and New Hampshire, have actually made them more significant, by piling up together on a single day just one month after the voting starts.
December 18th, 2007 at 8:53 am
Metro,
Do you really think that Michigan Democrats will vote for their favorite Republican? I have a vague recollection of Republicans making mischief on the Democratic side in 1984 or ‘88 by voting for Jesse Jackson, once their nomination was decided. I don’t remember the details, but I think they gave Jackson at least one improbably win. My point is, Democratic voters are a real wild card in Michigan, and we can’t assume that most will vote for their favorite Republican.
Maybe Keyes wins Michigan?
December 18th, 2007 at 8:55 am
MWS, except that Rudy gets hundreds of delegates on Feb 5, even if he loses FL. 201 alone in NY, NJ, CT and DE. And a decent fraction of CA’s 173. Not to mention IL’s 70 and a few other states. And fractions of Southern states not on a winner-take-all basis.
December 18th, 2007 at 8:55 am
I’ll agree with Metro about one thing, and I’m just being honest. I fear Rudy more than I do Huckabee. The main reason is I see a lot more dedication to the proposition that we ‘can’t let Huckabee tear the party apart’ than I do for Rudy doing the same thing. So, one way or another, we’ll stop Huckabee, but I’m not as sure that Giuliani is dead yet. I think Mitt Romney and Fred both satisfy all of the segments of the Republican party, but I’m strongly pro-Romney because of his work ethics, and his background and experience.
December 18th, 2007 at 8:56 am
I didn’t get which part you were agreeing with, there.
December 18th, 2007 at 9:08 am
On principle, I am against Romney. I would die going through even four years of flip-flopping, indecision, and fabrications.
Everytime I hear Huckabee he impresses me, not in a substantive way but in a personal way. On Larry King last night he answered every question straightforwardly. He gave a great answer when asked about not believing in evolution (basically he said if he had intention to do anything to change school curiculuum he would have done so in Arkansas where his own kids attended public schools). I understand the concerns with his foreign policy inexperience, but good advisors compensate for that.
December 18th, 2007 at 9:12 am
Metro,
Oh I agree that it’s possible Rudy wants Mitt to win NH; in fact, I said last week that rationally speaking, it’s in Rudy’s best interests to see Mitt win NH. Because A.) Mitt can actually slow down Huck, whereas I’m very skeptical about McCain’s chances to win anywhere after NH (which Huck was never expected to win anyway) and B.) McCain possibly supplants the need for Rudy. I’d just be surprised if Team Rudy realized this. It seems like they’ve based the bulk of their strategy on torpedoing Mitt (utterly ignoring Huckabee’s rise, etc) and it’s interesting if they’ve finally decided that propping Mitt up might be in their best interest.
December 18th, 2007 at 9:18 am
I was wondering when Metro would admit defeat here.
Retreat Rudy, retreat. what is his deal with running away from a challenge. it really shows a lack of confidence. but i guess that is what happens when you unleash you amazing ads and your numbers just go down.
everybody already knows everything about rudy. that is why he was an instant frontrunner nationally. the is no more he can really say to sell himself. he is old news and has not been in the headlines for three weeks besdies a week of reminding us of his affair and ethical problems.
huck and mitt have dominated the news and they will continue to once the caucuses start becasue they are the only tow fighting for each state really accept in new where romney will win. romney arises as anti huck candidate and takes him out by florida is my prediction. romney wins florida and puts an end to the whole process.
giuliani’s strategy may work but his lead in these feb 5th states is dwindling. romney with omenmtum money good poll numbers already could take him out. don’t forget his ‘magical’ ads too. this is his smoking gun against giuliani.
December 18th, 2007 at 9:21 am
axel, huck is slick. he parallels clinton in that way.
indecision is HARDLY word I would use to desecribe romney. i mean seriously, you obviously have not studied up on the guy.
you base your vote on lame things like how ‘authentic’ a person comes off as and you will gte scrweed in the end because the skill of ‘appearing’ authentic is not what you need in a president. you need leadership and ability ot get things done in the best way for America. basing your decision on dumb pithy things like who appears most authentic is what got us in trouble with bush.
we need competence and communication skills. huck as one, mitt has both.
December 18th, 2007 at 9:28 am
i disagree that rudy wants romney to win in new hampshire. this race is not defined by rudy any longer, its defined by huck. he leads everywhere. rudy can’t stop him anywhere but floria, and even that assumption looks to be going out the window.
he who wins new hampshire arises as the anti huck candidate of which the non idiot vote will rally around to stop huck (no way huck gets the nod, i predict right now). is that group going to rally around mccain? No they aren’t for obvious reasons. if romney wins new hampshire he goes on to compete seriosly for nevad, michigan, and south carlolina. those weaks will just strengthen the huck romney fight and likely people will just forget about rudy by florida. if romneyu manges to pull off some meajor momentum, which is likely, given the incredible anti huck sentiment, he wins by florida in my opinion. rudy doesn’t want romney to becmoe the anti huck candidate. rudy can’t stop him, romney appears to be the only legitimate one who can.
mccain and rudy have the same constiuency really. they appeal to the same types. by rudy running from new hampshire, where does his support go, i imagine he thinks it will go to mccain. this will wekaen romney and take him out of the race. if he lost both iowa and new hampshire, he id done.
i think this is what giuliani is doing. he doesn’t want mitt to win. if mccain wins, then what? nothign really, it just muddles things and makes things less decided because mccain is not going to win the whole thing. it makes a perfect scenario for rudy to step in come florida.
rudy’s whole strategy is to blunt mitt’s momentum so he is stronger going into those states where he is strongest.
December 18th, 2007 at 9:40 am
Oh I agree that it’s possible Rudy wants Mitt to win NH; in fact, I said last week that rationally speaking, it’s in Rudy’s best interests to see Mitt win NH. Because A.) Mitt can actually slow down Huck, whereas I’m very skeptical about McCain’s chances to win anywhere after NH (which Huck was never expected to win anyway) and B.) McCain possibly supplants the need for Rudy. I’d just be surprised if Team Rudy realized this. It seems like they’ve based the bulk of their strategy on torpedoing Mitt (utterly ignoring Huckabee’s rise, etc) and it’s interesting if they’ve finally decided that propping Mitt up might be in their best interest.
Why?
And as for the rest: If Huckabee wins Iowa, hurting Mitt, and Mitt wins New Hampshire, it knocks Rudy’s main rival for the moderate/independent constituency out of the race (McCain) and produces two weakened frontrunners, giving him a good space to step in. That’s probably the strategy.
December 18th, 2007 at 9:55 am
I don’t agree with this conclusion: why does Romney winning his neighboring state
vault him into a “final” with Huckabee. Especially if this scenerio presupposes
that Romney loses Iowa – a state he has invested massive resources.
Everyone has a “home” state or region. For Rudy – its large states. Why does Rudy
finished if he doesn’t even get to compete in his region. I agree though that if Rudy
doesn’t win Florida, it is extremely dire for his chances.
December 18th, 2007 at 10:02 am
maybe it is just that giuliani is weak and does not have enough money to keep spending n ew hampshire if his numbers are just going to keep going down?
maybe itis simply limited resources. his contributions have probably gone down guite a bit the last few weeks.
he still has a legitimate shot. the race is really wide open right now
December 18th, 2007 at 10:06 am
uh, matt, are you new to presidential races? why do you think all the focus in on iowa ad new hapmshire. the race dynamics are not centered around where you are strongest, they are centered aroudn the early states. a lower level poltiical science class I would suggest.
December 18th, 2007 at 10:15 am
Metro,
“MWS, except that Rudy gets hundreds of delegates on Feb 5, even if he loses FL. 201 alone in NY, NJ, CT and DE. And a decent fraction of CA’s 173. Not to mention IL’s 70 and a few other states. And fractions of Southern states not on a winner-take-all basis.”
Trouble is, Rudy is already bleeding support in the states you mention, and he hasn’t even lost a vote yet, and the media haven’t even glommed on to a winner of a state yet.
A recent NY poll showed Rudy already slipping in NY below 40%. Noone is close (yet) but what happens when Rudy starts losing primaries and is either ignored or pestered about his viability? In Illinois, a recent poll showed Huck only a few points behind. As an Illinoisan, I can tell you that there are two Republican parties here- suburban, and downstate. Rudy will not do well downstate. As for California, Huck is also within a handful of points there as well.
The point is, even Rudy’s most solid firewalls are showing gaping holes, and I don’t see how they hold up if he doesn’t get an early win. He can’t control the narrative once the voting starts, and the media- being in the drama creation business- will pump up the significance of every result to the nth degree. Rudy will either be ignored, or written off as unviable and dead if he doesn’t win early. Look what the media did to McCain over the summer, just because he was out of money- and people were months away from actually voting!
It will be worse for Rudy in January than it was for McCain in July if he doesn’t rack up at least one win (probably two).
December 18th, 2007 at 10:17 am
dubious,
I’ve asked a few times if Rudy might just be running out of money, and either nobody here rally knows, or won’t answer.
December 18th, 2007 at 10:18 am
MWS,
We all know Mitt isn’t
December 18th, 2007 at 11:11 am
I am pro life and pro gun, but will support Guiliani over Huck.
I would be supporting Huck if he really was the conservative he pretends to be. I voted for Reagan (1984), Bush (1988), Bush(1992), Dole (1996), Bush(2000) and Bush(2004).
If Huck is the nominee, for the first time in my adult life I will consider voting for a Democrat. Hillary and Edwards would be difficult for me to stomach, but Obmama and Richardson wouldn’t be as difficult.
I am pro-life, pro-gun, but during Huckabee’s years in AR I watch him smash our coalition to pieces by being a tax raiser, pro immigrant, soft on crime and embarrasingly weak on ethics, taking thousands of $ in gifts from special interests.
When Huck came to office, AR Republicans had a reputation of being tough on crime, tough on taxes and for open and ethical goverment. After 10 years of Huckabee, our efforts to use any of these issues against Democrats always resulted in the same responds from Democrats: Getting it rubbed in our faces that Huck supported taxes, Huck released criminals, Huck took gifts from special interests. Huck did nothing to build the Republican party in AR. Unlike the rest of the South, the state never turned Republican. The reason is Mike Huckabee.
A democrat in office would serve the cause of conservatism better than Mike Huckabee, so if Hillary and Huck win their respective nominations, I will hope for Bloomberg.
December 18th, 2007 at 11:38 am
There is a difference on how a person responds to a poll and how they will vote. People vote more with the issues and less with personality when the real voting starts. I think the majority of conservatives will vote for the three who are essentially conservative on all the issues: Romney, Thompson, McCain. If they have to, most will vote for Rudy over Huckabee because Rudy is 90% conservative and has demonstrated a willingness to respect the other 10% of the conservative movement that he does not square with. Huckabee on the other hand, aside from SoCon issues, is passionately campaigning against 50%-60% of the conservative platform. That may get him front-runner in a five-man race, but if it narrows to a two-man race, Huckabee has a definite ceiling.
By the way, I am a Christian conservative that is passionate about social and morality issues, but I realize that it is foremost the responsibility of churches and private organizations like the Boy Scouts to promote morality, and foremost the responsibility of the President of the US to protect national security and protect us from big government.
December 18th, 2007 at 12:31 pm
Great point Metro on #35. It’s a nine inning game and we didn’t even start warming up.
December 18th, 2007 at 1:09 pm
MWS, surely you are joking about Rudy’s money. Rudy had the largest cash-on-hand as of last reporting and hasn’t run many TV ads yet. Most of their money is being saved for FL and Mega Tuesday — always has been.
December 18th, 2007 at 2:22 pm
Metro,
I expect we’ll see Rudy’s “shock and awe” campaign begin at some point in January, if it ever does. The problem is that he’s going to be completely rolled over.
By Feb 5, Rudy will be some guy on the sidelines with less than $10 million cash on hand, who lost 7 straight primary states, for whom the only free media is bad media.
Contrast that with either Huckabee or Romney, who will both have early state wins (one of them possibly being dominant), tons of free press that highlights them as winners, and (atleast for Romney) more money than Rudy.
Rudy keeps on retreating and retreating, but where’s he going? He keeps going the TOUGHER route because he’s too afraid to face a loss sooner. Next month, he’s gonna wish he took a respectable stand in NH.
December 18th, 2007 at 2:24 pm
Scratch that…long prior to Feb 5…
December 18th, 2007 at 2:29 pm
I’ve been hearing and reading a lot of speculation on running mate possibilities – almost all of which seem improbable. Ned Flanders or Gomer Pyle (Huckabee) would not pick any current candidate as his running mate because none of them thinks he can go the distance (or have an ego to go with the new guy). That is an extremely unlikely chance anyway despite his trendy popularity. He’s like the new girlfriend that wears off after 2 weeks when you realize what’s really there. Romney wouldn’t pick any from this group either because there has been tension between most of the candidates due to jealousy of money and/or organizational skills. I can see a Rudy and McCain ticket and that is about the only one. I still think Rudy would pull from outside. McCain would pick Lieberman which I think would be a very dangerous ticket. Thompson’s age and energy are more of a liability than his strength as a Southern politician.
My gut feel is still Romney due to his track record. He is handling his campaign like all his previous successes and continues to impress more people as they get to know him. There are only two moderate candidates left: Romney and McCain. McCain blew it with his immigration stance so Romney gets the nod and all the Giuliani/McCain/Thompson voters into his camp when they see the alternative is Ned Flanders.
December 18th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
While it seems beyond unlikely given McCain’s hatred for Mitt for taking him out this summer, a Romney-McCain ticket would be outstanding for the GOP. Not as good as a Romney-Powell ticket, but still very good. A Huckabee-(insert perfect conservative) ticket would be insufficient. Huckabee is too flawed to be on any ticket. He will not get my vote unless it’s clemency Huck v. Kucinich. Seriously.
December 18th, 2007 at 3:52 pm
Wow Dubious, your comment was really obnoxious. Even worse, you don’t make any
sense. Yes, a lot of attention is paid to the early states. However,
if a candidate (like Rudy) decides to invest his resources in states
that are naturally more hospitable to his political views (like larger states)
and makes that “his” strategy, how can you say he is finished even prior to a vote in one of those larger states even casting single ballot.
December 19th, 2007 at 5:35 am
It is funny how Rudy’s camp announced that they were going to go hard after New Hampshire and his poll results have dropped ever since. Matter fo fact his poll results have dropped the most where he has campaigned the most. The more people get to know Rudy, the less they like him. He will be a non-factor when this is all said and done. Rudy has gone down in every poll that I have seen since the race started. He was up over 50% in all of them and has dropped ever since.