Jim G., Jonathan Martin, and Soren Dayton are talking up the Mormon factor in the upcoming primaries, particularly in Iowa.
Let me give you the Mormon perspective on all this. The 22,000 number being thrown around is a bit misleading but the impact of the Mormon vote can hardly be ignored.
Let’s set the baseline semantics so we get things right here.
- A Ward is the equivalent of a parish. Mormon congregations are organized strictly by geography. At any Mormon chapel you might pass there are typically 2 to 4 wards that meet there. So, for example, in my Virginia suburb of Ashburn there are 4 wards. We all meet in the same building on Sunday and throughout the week. Each ward is comprised of roughly 400-600 members. A Branch is a smaller congregation that you might find in remote areas or that caters to ethnic groups (for example, a “Spanish Branch”).
- A Stake comprises about 9-12 wards (Think of “tent stake”). This is the local leadership structure that helps with regional activities and needs.
- Mormons will sometimes refer to “active” and “inactive” members. Wards and Stakes track the “activity rate” (% of the ward that regularly attend Sunday meetings). This can range between 40% and 70%. As I understand it Iowa activity rates are somewhere between 50% and 60%.
- In Iowa there are 7 stakes; 35 wards; 32 branches with roughly 22,000 members.
- Potential caucus goers? When you subtract the number of eligible voters (Mormons have a lot of kids), take a chunk away for “inactive” members, and the narrow down that group to registered voters you get about 10,000 potential caucus goers. But Mormons love football as much as the next guy (the Orange Bowl happens to be that night with Kansas playing) and even with “their guy” in the race I wouldn’t expect a dramatic 90% turnout from the Mormon base.
- Also, consider, this isn’t a lockstep vote. I know plenty of Mormons who are die hard Ron Paul fans.
Bottom line: I expect no more than 3000 extra votes for Romney from the Mormon base in Iowa. Still, that’s roughly 6% of overall caucus voters and could mean the difference the race the way things are shaping up.
December 19th, 2007 at 9:26 am
not again. i am so tired about mormon stories.
December 19th, 2007 at 9:28 am
newsflash, mormons are normal people as well. that means a lot of them don’t go out and actually vote.
unfortunately.
December 19th, 2007 at 9:31 am
can we please stop with the Mormon threads?
December 19th, 2007 at 9:35 am
UA, dubious,
We’re tired of them, as well. Anything you can do to convince the MSM to drop this tired meme, we would appreciate. However, as long as they trot out their drivel, it needs to be corrected and put in proper perspective.
December 19th, 2007 at 9:50 am
As a Mormon, I think 3000 extra votes is very optimistic. Mormons do have lot’s of
kids in general, and they also tend to be busy with church responsibilities and other
activities. Which means that what they don’t have is lot’s of time.
I don’t see that many busy Mormon households taking the extra time out to attend a caucus.
If it were just to vote in a primary, then maybe, but for a caucus, no way.
December 19th, 2007 at 10:24 am
One more mormon story. That guy Ken whatever who won a ton of money on Jeopardy writes an op-ed saying as a mormon he is sick of attacks on his church.
I have to say, I liked it better when I didn’t know who was or was not mormon, evangelical, and everything else.
December 19th, 2007 at 10:48 am
Axel,
I agree with your last sentiment. It’s the MSM and Evangelicals that are forcing the religious test theme. If no one asked Romney about his religion, he would never say anything nor bring it up. But Irish is right, if ridiculous stories are being propagated in the political forum culture, they have to be answered and refuted.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:09 am
I would be surprised at 50% activity rate. Thats more like a Utah number. In Maine the number is closer to 30% active. The active people tend to have a lot of kids, at least half the people in my congregation on any given Sunday are too young to vote, and who’s going to baby sit? I just don’t see it being a big factor on caucus night.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:12 am
There are more that 500,000 Evangelical registered Republicans in the state of IA. Yep, that is a half million compared to a poultry 22K LDS population and just look how they are acting.
Jim G., Jonathan Martin, Soren Dayton, and others to continually overplay the Mormon impact in IA does nothing but energize the half Million Evangelicals and further flame the fires of some holy war. These tactics divide further the Republican party on ridiculous religious grounds to the benefit of the candidates that they support.
IA is not UT or ID. Romney would not be where he is today without the support of non-Mormons.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:13 am
oops, poultry = paltry – Need that preview function!
December 19th, 2007 at 11:35 am
500,000 evangelicals in Iowa.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:52 am
Continuing the thought from #9 above, the anti-mormon vote from evangelicals and others will more than offset any potential boost Romney will get in places like Iowa.
Alas, its too bad we don’t live in a perfect world where none of this matters and we can just look at qualifications.
December 19th, 2007 at 12:39 pm
I’ll eat my hat if there’s a “Mormon” boost. In my Mormon ward, most of the congregants aren’t even aware that that Mitt Romney is Mormon or even that there’s a guy named Mitt Romney running for President or even necssarily that there’s a presidential race. For better or worse, most Americans don’t give a crap about politics.